Reading Trump's Mind
Plus: Israel goes and gets some hostages.
We hope that bull that briefly escaped an Oregon rodeo over the weekend is doing okay. Happy Monday.
Reading Trump’s Mind: ‘I’m Winning’
I gotta say this very strongly: I’m still winning.
All the crap they’ve tried—hasn’t changed a thing.
They got their conviction in their rigged trial in New York. Tony gave me a memo yesterday with poll results from that 528 website, or whatever it’s called. (Why do they call it that? A wacky name.) The trial made almost no difference. The day it began, I was up by 0.8 percent. The day before the verdict, I was ahead by 1.2 percent. Today it’s 1.1 percent. So I’m fine.
There’s still the sentencing, on July 11. But if that horrible judge only gives me a slap on the wrist, we’ll say it proves that what I did was no big deal. And if he sentences me to prison—POLITICAL PERSECUTION! Can you imagine the energy at the Republican convention the next week?
So I think I’ve dodged that bullet. And the Supremes and Judge Cannon have done their job delaying everything else. All that legal crap has been a pain—but no real damage. Pretty goddamn amazing.
I was also a little worried after Biden’s State of the Union three months ago. He did pretty well, I gotta admit. What drugs was he on? I gotta get some.
Anyway, our guys were worried he’d capitalize on that with some consistent campaign themes, some catchy slogans, and some good gimmicks. Nope. No themes, no slogans, no gimmicks. Politics is slogans and gimmicks. They don’t seem to get that.
Our guys were worried about their money advantage for a while. And I guess Biden did spend tens of millions on ads in swing states. But no effect. And then thanks to the marks contributing after the trial verdict, and to the rich guys capitulating as I knew they would, we’re now okay on the money side.
Biden’s guys had chances. Nikki stayed in for a while and caused some trouble. It’s amazing Biden didn’t even reach out to her and try to keep her neutral, like that creep Pence. And then the really bad guys, like Christie and Cheney and John Kelly and Romney—I guess Biden’s guys don’t have time for them? Great.
So here we are. I’m still ahead by a point. But I bet I’m really up more than that. In 2016 and 2020 I ran a few percent ahead of the final polls on election day.
And I lost to Biden in 2020 by four and half points. (Yes, I lost. Can you believe how many people went along with that Stop the Steal bullshit?) So I’m running more than five points ahead of 2020.
Which means I can win all the swing states, including Nevada. I was there yesterday. Man, it was hot. But the crowd was good. They loved that thing about how we’re not going to let the IRS tax income from tips when we get back in. Let’s see how Biden does with restaurant and hotel employees after this—and not just in Nevada.
I can also win Minnesota. They showed me some story about some pro-Hamas guy being appointed head of Holocaust studies at the university there. Can you believe it? Even that liberal Norm guy who loves the Swamp and hates me attacked them on that. Gotta schedule another rally up there.
You know, I was worried when summer came and the idiot students went home, the colleges wouldn’t be as good an issue for me. But they’re keeping the idiocy going. I do need to talk to the guys about intensifying the attack on the colleges. Thank God for college lefties: When I was a kid, they elected Reagan in 1966 and Nixon in 1968. They can do it again.
I’ve got two decisions to make over the next month.
The debate’s scheduled for June 27. Of course I can beat Joe in the debate. And it’s only on CNN, not like those debates in the past that were on all the stations.
So maybe I should do it? But I don’t think so. Why risk it? I’m ahead, he’s got no real cards left to play—and what if they drug him up and he looks energetic and capable? What if I have an off night? If I get out of it, he has no national stage until the Democratic convention in August—and that will be a shitshow even if Roger wasn’t already working on making it even more of one.
So I think I’ll just keep on talking about how Joe has to take a drug test before the debate, and say that of course I’m willing to take one. The media will ridicule this, but the idea that Joe is dependent on drugs will sink in some. And I’ll pull out of the debate a couple of days before, after Biden’s wasted a week studying up for it, and it won’t happen. I won’t pay a price.
Then there’s my VP pick. I’ll torture Rubio and Scott some more, but I’m not taking them. Burgum would be safe. But Vance has been a hell of an attack dog the last few weeks. And he’s a veteran, which could help. Maybe Cotton combines a little bit of the best of Burgum and Vance? Dunno, but I’ll keep the suspense going. Maybe I’ll announce the pick on the day of the sentencing in New York, the Thursday before the convention? Leave the courtroom to go straight to Trump Tower to unveil the nominee? Wonder if that would be a good idea?
Well, I’ve got plenty of time to decide that. But anyway, like I said last time I dictated my thoughts for Morning Shots (which is kind of fun, maybe I’ll do it more often):
Screw them all. Revenge and retribution are gonna be sweet. I’m gonna do it.
—William Kristol
A Shot in the Arm
Given its overwhelming military and intelligence superiority, it’s been little surprise that Israel has been winning on the battlefield against Hamas for months. But what Israel has desperately needed was a boost in wartime morale, and on Saturday, they got one: The IDF conducted a daring daytime raid in central Gaza, resulting in the rescue of four hostages.
Israeli social media flooded with pictures of the rescued hostages and their families. New IDF heroes were made over the weekend: Men like Arnon Zmora, an officer of the elite Yamam counterterrorism unit, who was shot and killed by Hamas terrorists guarding the hostages. This was old Israel—daring, unconventional, and heroic.
I’ve supported and conducted hundreds of similar missions at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels. They are fraught affairs built on the backs of intelligence professionals analyzing millions of all-source intelligence reports. While the operators will rightly be lionized in Israeli lore for their bravery, those in the shadows made it possible.
The operation came with a cost, reportedly resulting in the death of hundreds of Gazans. Some of them knew about the hostages; others likely didn’t. Although Hamas is responsible for kidnapping the Israelis and hiding them among civilians, every loss of life in war is tragic.
“It is important to recognize the unfortunate reality that casualties are often an unavoidable aspect of war,” a senior Department of Defense official with decades of counterterrorism operations experience told The Bulwark, requesting anonymity to speak freely about the situation. “While any loss of life is tragic, the focus of anger and criticism should be aimed at the root cause of the situation. The blame lies with Hamas, whose actions necessitated the rescue operation in the first place.”
While the weekend’s operation was a tactical success, it is too early to tell if it will have strategic effects. Can Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose brother Yoni died on a similar mission in Uganda in 1976, parlay this miracle into something more meaningful? At first, I thought it was possible. Perhaps this would give Netanyahu some political breathing room to maneuver and quell the burgeoning revolt in his war cabinet.
At first, it appeared that might happen. Benny Gantz, a member of Bibi’s war cabinet, canceled his scheduled June 8 speech, in which he was widely expected to leave the war cabinet. Bibi immediately tried to keep Gantz in the cabinet. Gantz was not persuaded—he promptly left the war cabinet last night, followed by Gadi Eisenkot and Chili Tropper, two National Unity ministers. (Both Gantz and Eisenkot previously served as chief of the general staff of the IDF, and Tropper was in an elite special forces unit during his military service.)
In his resignation letter, Eisenkot spoke harshly about Bibi’s performance. “Despite the efforts of many, alongside those of my colleague, the cabinet you headed was prevented for a long while from making key decisions, which were needed to realize the war’s goals and improve Israel’s strategic position,” he wrote.
While Gantz demanded that Bibi call for fall elections, Bibi’s ruling coalition remained intact with 64 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. Sensing an opportunity, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir returned to Bibi’s coalition after momentarily halting cooperation. Gvir, a far-right firebrand, asked for and could receive more sway inside Bibi’s dwindling coalition. Now, all eyes turn to Bibi’s minister of defense, Yoav Gallant, who has sparred repeatedly with Bibi since before October 7. Bibi will need to do everything possible to keep Gallant inside the tent. Should he bolt, Bibi might not survive.
While the IDF mission didn’t save Bibi, it will likely strengthen his hand against Hamas in ceasefire negotiations. On the other hand, Hamas will also likely dig in its heels in response to the IDF’s successful operation. It’s hard to see how or why Hamas would sign any treaty with the Jews. Their stock is soaring throughout jihadist circles, earning praise from Sayf al-Adl, al Qaeda’s leader. Why throw that away?
War has a logic of its own. Perhaps Bibi can parlay this successful mission into something more long-term. If he doesn’t, he might not get another opportunity before he’s forced to either sign a treaty or face the voters again.
—Will Selber
Catching up . . .
Inside Israel’s hostage rescue: Secret plans and a deadly ‘wall of fire’: Washington Post
Biden admin has discussed potentially negotiating unilateral deal with Hamas to free U.S. hostages: NBC News
‘Turning the corner’: Biden ramps up campaign to calm Democratic nerves: Politico
Republicans pitch tax cuts for corporations, the wealthy in 2025: Washington Post
Blinken arrives in Middle East as U.S. pushes for ceasefire vote at U.N.: New York Times
Far-right gains trigger elections in France, reckoning in Europe: Axios
Closing arguments could begin in Hunter Biden gun case: NBC News
Quick Hits
1. A Sane Majority?
Trump may be feeling good about the state of his post-conviction polling (see above), but A.B. Stoddard isn’t as sure. She compiles some evidence for the site today:
Multiple polls conducted since Trump’s guilty verdict show that more voters think the jury issued a correct verdict than not. Majorities and pluralities in the surveys show voters believe Trump committed a crime, intentionally did something wrong, and was not treated more harshly than other defendants by the justice system. A hefty majority of respondents in a new Yahoo/YouGov poll—64 percent—said it is now important that “voters get a verdict in Trump’s trials before the 2024 general election.” The number of Americans who think Trump “conspired to overturn the results of a presidential election” has increased 5 points since January and the number who believe him guilty of removing classified documents from the White House and “obstructing efforts to retrieve them” has risen by 4 points in the same period.
And several post-verdict surveys also show Biden making gains.
The Yahoo News/YouGov poll showed Biden leading Trump nationally for the first time since October 2023. A New York Times/Siena poll recontacted respondents polled in April and May and found that Biden had gained 2 percent with a critical group: “The shift was especially pronounced among the young, nonwhite and disengaged Democratic-leaning voters who have propelled Mr. Trump to a lead in the early polls,” the Times wrote, with around one-quarter of those voters now choosing Biden instead. The survey found that “double-haters,” who don’t want to vote for either candidate were “especially likely” to abandon Trump. The Times noted that another poll of recontacted voters by Echelon Insights, a GOP firm, also found a 2-point shift to Biden.
The Bulwark’s Sarah Longwell has also found this response among her focus groups of two-time Trump voters, following the verdict.
The difference is small, but the evidence that has emerged so far shows a segment of persuadable, non-tribal voters that believes a criminal conviction speaks to a person’s fitness for the highest office.
And their votes could be decisive.
2. David Boaz, R.I.P.
American libertarianism lost one of its leading lights last week: the Cato Institute’s David Boaz died Friday at his home in Arlington at the age of 70.
Tim Miller isn’t exactly a libertarian himself, but in a remembrance for the site he writes that “anytime I read or listened to David I thought he was the kind of libertarian I would like to be”:
He took the “liberal” part of the ideology seriously. Not prone to wild-eyed notions or conspiratorial thinking, he was not motivated by some Darwinian desire to let society’s less fortunate fail. Just the opposite—to me it seemed as if all of his advocacy was motivated primarily by the desire for people to be able to live as they wished, free from discrimination or oppression, free from the unfeeling and capricious power of the state. This was no doubt informed in some ways by his experience as an openly gay man through the crackdowns of the ’70s and ’80s.
He was principled but open-minded. Though he was as versed in libertarian philosophy as anyone on the planet, unlike many ideologues he was not blindly chained to dogma or determined to backfill a rationale for his preferred solution. He described himself as a “reasonable radical”—the aptness of that label revealed his self-awareness. My husband once lobbied him on a food-labeling policy issue that he thought Cato should support. David instinctively rebuked his position, but listened, read, kicked the idea around, and eventually landed on the other side because he decided his first impulse was wrong. Refreshing!
But on the issues where he was right and righteous from the jump, he was unsparing and often ahead of his time . . .
So when I finally got to spend time with him, naturally I was looking forward to the opportunity to engage on these big ideas. I imagined we’d have a little debate with a few glasses of white wine and for dessert he’d share some stories about 1980s gay San Francisco over Tadich Grill’s famed rice custard pudding.
But when I arrived for our lunch I was disappointed to find David a little melancholy. He was excited to chat, of course, and up for some old stories, but rather than wanting to mix it up with me, he wanted mostly to commiserate.
Two years into the Trump term, many of his libertarian colleagues had followed the same path as my Republican ones. I would have thought the contrarian, powerless, strident, anarchic libertarians would have had more antibodies to resist the MAGA wiles. It’s not as if people were angling for jobs or trying to prop up their careers as campaign ad men like my friends were . . .
David felt like he was on a bit of an island. He, like so many of us Never Trumpers, was devastated and gobsmacked that people he respected and believed in were succumbing to this buffoon. So we ate our comfort pudding and lamented our lost colleagues and friends. And walked out together into the crisp Bay air feeling a little better, having discovered there was another tribe on our isle with which we could break bread.
In the ensuing years David kept speaking out. He wasn’t going to leave the movement that he had dedicated his life to. But he also wasn’t going to follow them down the orange-bricked road to hell. So he became an outcast among the outcasts. Never wavering. Never backing down.
Cheap Shots
 | A guest post by
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What these idiot protestors don't realize or fail to accept is that if they were homosexual in Gaza, they'd be free falling from rooftops after being tortured for a few days. Shows just how smart and worldly these protestors really are.
"It’s hard to see how or why Hamas would sign any treaty with the Jews."
Israelis. Netanyahu is not the Prime Minister of "The Jews," he leads the State of Israel. Antisemitism among Hamas doesn't change that, any more than anti-Chinese sentiment makes Xi Jinping the mayor of Chinatown.