I'm tired of the "it's the economy, stupid" I'm old enough remember a lot worse economies. Prices are high, but so are wages, there is record low unemployment, the are inexpensive consumer goods out there, phones, tvs, clothes. Do you know blue jeans are the same price today as they were in 1979? I bought jeans in 1979. They were $25. I earned $2.25 an hour. You can buy jeans at Marshall's or kohl's for $35 sometimes on sale for $25. And the min wage $15. So forget about.
People blaming for price of gas on Biden is bull shirt. We are the largest oil producer in the world. Trump's "drill, baby, drill" is nonsensical. We already drill more oil then anyone. It's the world market that fixes gas prices. Not the President.
Rick Wilson keeps saying that Biden should have told things privately. Tim agreed and I do too, but its clear that Biden and his administration has been talking to Netanyahu and the other Israelis privately since the Oct. 7. I think Biden sending the message publicly because was it wasn't being received when it was sent privately.
About the red line, to me, the question isn't whether Biden did one thing or another, its what the effect will be. This isn't about my personal expression or such, its about what will be better for our country and the people in it.
I loved this episode, Rick is a personal fave of mine, he shares the gift that so many of the Bulwark brethren have for making deadly scary and upsetting things funny without undercutting its seriousness. I was thinking about the discussion of Susie Wiles and her surprising turn into MAGA and when I was describing it to my husband, he gave me a killer description of Trump's ability to tap into people's grievance, "Trump is a self-pity tractor beam. He identifies self pity, pulls you into the Death Star and next thing you know you are running the bridge of said Death Star." It's funny and depressing but we must keep our senses of humor as we go forth and do the work to protect our democracy. Thank you, Bulwark for helping me maintain a shred of sanity.
I look forward to anything that includes Rick Wilson. With six months to go before the election that unnecessarily includes the Insurrectionist, Trump, it looks like a race for who wins the antique Electoral College. Our democracy is on the line.
I will respectfully disagree on the UN moment of silence for Iran's president. I could care less about him and I don't want any moving tributes to him but if the leader of a member nation of the UN dies in a flying accident along with people who might actually be innocent like a pilot then a moment of silence is fine. Americans can celebrate his death and cheers to that I think that is fine but in this international body I won't be outraged by such a minor gesture.
I’m not from Virginia but from what I can tell Youngkin has been a good governor. Thanks to Rick Wilson and the Lincoln Project for helping him get elected. If I didn’t know better I would swear that the Lincoln Project was a fifth column that infected the Democratic Party like a virus. The truth is these guys are just grifters who figured out how easy it is to separate liberals from their money. Run incendiary sneering adds against Trump and play them in such hotly contested battlegrounds as Washington DC and California. Rich donors who already hate Trump are entertained and send money, buy more adds…rinse and repeat. There is zero evidence that the Lincoln Project had any impact on the presidential (or even statewide) elections and some indication that they actually hurt democrats especially McAuliffe. I think Tim and Sarah both know this. But Wilson can be funny in an ironically Trump insult comic way so whatever.
I mostly agree regarding LP's past impact. LP has been singing to the anti-Trump choir, not working to bring converts into the tent. But their trolling seems to get under Trump's skin. Right now, when Trump is under a lot of pressure from his legal problems and the resulting financial trouble, some trolling might help to push him over the edge of sanity.
They had their purpose and they got under Trump's skin. It is so hard to accurately access how any group impacts an election. They all say that they were important on the margins and they all have ad-buys. The Lincoln Project had good ads and were creative with their anti-Trump campaign.
Every time a candidate wins every consulting group, PAC, or demographic take credit. The reality is these ad groups I don't think have the same impact they did when Television was a bigger deal. Now we are all saturated by ads, promos, and information that I can't say confidently that ad-buys work. I think old-fashioned get people to the poll operations are the most important and the state Democratic parties have always been great at that.
Great podcast. Rick and Tim are a good combo. I'm a little worried about Tim though. You can hear the stress in his voice when he started stalking about polls at the end. The polls show a tied race (the MOE is there for a reason), not that polls in May are very predictive anyway.
Tim (or anyone else with polling blues), if you read this maybe take a break from polls. I know it's hard with them being pushed in your face all the time. But it's May, there will be plenty more polls to look at close to the race, when they're more accurate anyway. Though my guess is they'll mostly be within MOE too, because that's the new normal for presidential elections.
A tied race nationally is about a 90% chance of a Republican electoral college win. That is stressful. If Biden wins by 4 points he could still lose the electoral college easily. So Biden needs to outperform in the three midwest states. There is no realistic path to victory without Pennsylvania. And even if he gets that he has to get 2 of Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin. Nevada looks like a lost cause and Georgia might be too. What could really help is if 2022 has a similar trend where Biden/Democrats do better in states of the midwest. Hard to repeat that in a presidential election to the same degree because turnout will be higher.
I love all the Bulwark podcasts, The Lincoln Project, Resolute Square, Fast Politics, The Breakdown, Protect Democracy, RVAT, etc. [plus Randy Rainbow!] and believe that your work makes the Democratic party, and the average voter, smarter. I value you guys and your mission-driven work more than just about anything except my family.
However, because I am a worrywart, I am concerned about your/our future. If (God willing) Joe Biden is re-elected in November or (God willing) DJT takes that final bite of the hamburger from hell, will we still have you and your cohorts to help us stay sane?
You are in a prime position to help re-constitute a decent Republican party, and there will still be a bunch of MAGA Republicans to defeat in future elections. I fervently hope that you have a plan/plot to continue with your advocacy of saving liberal democracy for upcoming generations. Thank you.
I'm sorry but there will not re-constitute a decent Republican Party anytime in the near future regardless of election outcome. This will be the Tucker Carlson/JD Vance party for the next couple of decades. There are no incentives for Republicans to revert. The voters have already moved and prefer losing to winning. So do the candidates this is a game to them. It's like training dogs for dog-fighting. Even if you stop the fight, the dogs can't re-assimilate into society again.
I'm tired of the "it's the economy, stupid" I'm old enough remember a lot worse economies. Prices are high, but so are wages, there is record low unemployment, the are inexpensive consumer goods out there, phones, tvs, clothes. Do you know blue jeans are the same price today as they were in 1979? I bought jeans in 1979. They were $25. I earned $2.25 an hour. You can buy jeans at Marshall's or kohl's for $35 sometimes on sale for $25. And the min wage $15. So forget about.
People blaming for price of gas on Biden is bull shirt. We are the largest oil producer in the world. Trump's "drill, baby, drill" is nonsensical. We already drill more oil then anyone. It's the world market that fixes gas prices. Not the President.
Rick Wilson keeps saying that Biden should have told things privately. Tim agreed and I do too, but its clear that Biden and his administration has been talking to Netanyahu and the other Israelis privately since the Oct. 7. I think Biden sending the message publicly because was it wasn't being received when it was sent privately.
About the red line, to me, the question isn't whether Biden did one thing or another, its what the effect will be. This isn't about my personal expression or such, its about what will be better for our country and the people in it.
I loved this episode, Rick is a personal fave of mine, he shares the gift that so many of the Bulwark brethren have for making deadly scary and upsetting things funny without undercutting its seriousness. I was thinking about the discussion of Susie Wiles and her surprising turn into MAGA and when I was describing it to my husband, he gave me a killer description of Trump's ability to tap into people's grievance, "Trump is a self-pity tractor beam. He identifies self pity, pulls you into the Death Star and next thing you know you are running the bridge of said Death Star." It's funny and depressing but we must keep our senses of humor as we go forth and do the work to protect our democracy. Thank you, Bulwark for helping me maintain a shred of sanity.
I look forward to anything that includes Rick Wilson. With six months to go before the election that unnecessarily includes the Insurrectionist, Trump, it looks like a race for who wins the antique Electoral College. Our democracy is on the line.
Amazing episode as always!
I will respectfully disagree on the UN moment of silence for Iran's president. I could care less about him and I don't want any moving tributes to him but if the leader of a member nation of the UN dies in a flying accident along with people who might actually be innocent like a pilot then a moment of silence is fine. Americans can celebrate his death and cheers to that I think that is fine but in this international body I won't be outraged by such a minor gesture.
Appreciate the Giuliani assessment
Love Rick. Fantastic episode guys!
Hey Tim! Rick is a great guest. Thoughts?
One of the varieties of Rudy coffee is infused with his black hair dye while the beans are roasted.
I’m not from Virginia but from what I can tell Youngkin has been a good governor. Thanks to Rick Wilson and the Lincoln Project for helping him get elected. If I didn’t know better I would swear that the Lincoln Project was a fifth column that infected the Democratic Party like a virus. The truth is these guys are just grifters who figured out how easy it is to separate liberals from their money. Run incendiary sneering adds against Trump and play them in such hotly contested battlegrounds as Washington DC and California. Rich donors who already hate Trump are entertained and send money, buy more adds…rinse and repeat. There is zero evidence that the Lincoln Project had any impact on the presidential (or even statewide) elections and some indication that they actually hurt democrats especially McAuliffe. I think Tim and Sarah both know this. But Wilson can be funny in an ironically Trump insult comic way so whatever.
I mostly agree regarding LP's past impact. LP has been singing to the anti-Trump choir, not working to bring converts into the tent. But their trolling seems to get under Trump's skin. Right now, when Trump is under a lot of pressure from his legal problems and the resulting financial trouble, some trolling might help to push him over the edge of sanity.
They had their purpose and they got under Trump's skin. It is so hard to accurately access how any group impacts an election. They all say that they were important on the margins and they all have ad-buys. The Lincoln Project had good ads and were creative with their anti-Trump campaign.
Every time a candidate wins every consulting group, PAC, or demographic take credit. The reality is these ad groups I don't think have the same impact they did when Television was a bigger deal. Now we are all saturated by ads, promos, and information that I can't say confidently that ad-buys work. I think old-fashioned get people to the poll operations are the most important and the state Democratic parties have always been great at that.
Charming
Hey Rick, I am subscribed to The Breakdown, but no longer getting the emails and can't figure out how to get them again?
Great podcast. Rick and Tim are a good combo. I'm a little worried about Tim though. You can hear the stress in his voice when he started stalking about polls at the end. The polls show a tied race (the MOE is there for a reason), not that polls in May are very predictive anyway.
Tim (or anyone else with polling blues), if you read this maybe take a break from polls. I know it's hard with them being pushed in your face all the time. But it's May, there will be plenty more polls to look at close to the race, when they're more accurate anyway. Though my guess is they'll mostly be within MOE too, because that's the new normal for presidential elections.
A tied race nationally is about a 90% chance of a Republican electoral college win. That is stressful. If Biden wins by 4 points he could still lose the electoral college easily. So Biden needs to outperform in the three midwest states. There is no realistic path to victory without Pennsylvania. And even if he gets that he has to get 2 of Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin. Nevada looks like a lost cause and Georgia might be too. What could really help is if 2022 has a similar trend where Biden/Democrats do better in states of the midwest. Hard to repeat that in a presidential election to the same degree because turnout will be higher.
Operate like you’re down 10 with seven minute to go and you need a stop.
Tim, I think the flavor you were missing for Rudy’s coffee was Johnny Walker black
Or maybe licorice black hair dye...
Rick and TIm together! Made my day! Bulwark + Lincoln Project = Educated listeners
Excellent program. The insights and discussion between Tim and Rick was helpful. Wish the program was on the nightly need.
FOR RICK WILSON -
Serious Inquiry –
I love all the Bulwark podcasts, The Lincoln Project, Resolute Square, Fast Politics, The Breakdown, Protect Democracy, RVAT, etc. [plus Randy Rainbow!] and believe that your work makes the Democratic party, and the average voter, smarter. I value you guys and your mission-driven work more than just about anything except my family.
However, because I am a worrywart, I am concerned about your/our future. If (God willing) Joe Biden is re-elected in November or (God willing) DJT takes that final bite of the hamburger from hell, will we still have you and your cohorts to help us stay sane?
You are in a prime position to help re-constitute a decent Republican party, and there will still be a bunch of MAGA Republicans to defeat in future elections. I fervently hope that you have a plan/plot to continue with your advocacy of saving liberal democracy for upcoming generations. Thank you.
Colleen
I'm sorry but there will not re-constitute a decent Republican Party anytime in the near future regardless of election outcome. This will be the Tucker Carlson/JD Vance party for the next couple of decades. There are no incentives for Republicans to revert. The voters have already moved and prefer losing to winning. So do the candidates this is a game to them. It's like training dogs for dog-fighting. Even if you stop the fight, the dogs can't re-assimilate into society again.