The Secret Pod makes an emergency appearance to work through last night's terrible performance by Biden and to urge the Democratic Party to do the responsible thing in this moment. And Jonathan Martin discusses the strategy behind Biden's failed gamble and whether sitting Democrats would actually publicly push the president to leave the ticket. Sarah Longwell, JVL, and Martin join Tim Miller for the weekend pod.
show notes:
Claire McCaskill on Biden's performance
David Frum on the debate
Tim's playlist
I'm listening to this for the first time and there is no mention of the money question. The idea is to throw some who has no name recognition into the race without the campaign's money and current planning, organization, and field offices etc. Whitmer and Shapiro could crash and burn in a presidential race. I'm sure Biden is aware of these problems when he makes decisions
Welp. I guess Biden is staying in. No choice but to do what a great man says, “Strap on!”
TNL crew is my favorite Bulwark offering, but this pod was really rough. JVL broke me. Tim depressed me. Sarah infuriated me. However, I can understand because she has been telling me for many months that she is building an Anti Trump coalition, not a Pro Biden coalition, so she doesn’t hear from those who are happily voting for Biden-Harris. Perhaps she is working on a two time Biden voter focus group that will air soon to see if they have abandoned Biden? In my Pro Biden/Anti Trump circles, committed voters are mad that Trump continues to lie, say crazy stuff and promises dangerous actions in another term. They are all still voting for Biden despite the debate. It seems odd to offend/risk these voters who have not been wavering on Biden-Harris for years to choose another nominee. Who are the voters who have changed their intended vote for Biden? Wondering if they are more likely to support (1) Biden-Harris or (2) Harris with somebody else. If the concern is that Biden cannot govern because of…[declined mental capacity, slowness, looking old, whatever], then the calls should be for him to resign now. Not staying put and not running for reelection.
We must keep the pressure on the Democratic leadership and President Biden himself to step down. We cannot lose the momentum of this moment or we’re lost a repeat of 2016. Not even- because then Hillary was leading in the polls.
time for you guys to move out of this remove Biden ***t and start defending our democracy. It's Biden or Harris - SCOTUS decisions have made it clear - we need to unite now - no time for political fantasy football. Please kill this remove Biden meme - time to unite.
The time to remove Biden was last year, when JVL (who is obviously not always right) was a total Biden stan. The clock cannot be turned back - i.e., we cannot make it as if Biden did not already win the Democratic primary. It's too late to panic now - the commitment has been made, and we have to move forward.
Furthermore, there is no evidence that another candidate would perform better against Trump than Biden - or that such a candidate could be nominated. (The one exception is Michelle Obama, but it's pretty clear she's not interested.)
I take strong objection to Tim's crass description of Lehigh Valley congresswoman Susan Wild at the end of the podcast with J-Mart as a "mid-bench house woman". We love Susan here in the Lehigh Valley, she's been a fierce advocate of the democratic agenda and has skillfully held one of the most dynamic and highly competitive swing districts in Pennsylvania. I hope the Bulwark doesn't think they can continue to run their focus groups in Bethlehem while they spout this sort of slanderous drivel about our representative.
I encourage Tim and the Bulwark team to amend this egregious faux pas by having Susan on the podcast at their earliest opportunity!
#We Need a Wild Woman in the House
https://wildforcongress.com/meet-susan
Remember Hillary prosecuting the election like it was normal. It was not normal then and it is not normal now.
Unfortunately, Democrats did not learn their lesson from Hillary's loss. They still don't want to focus on Trump's unfitness. It won't matter who the Democratic candidate is if s/he continues to treat Trump as normal.
As lawrence summers discussed, very few people actually saw the debate. The current format is unwatchable, stupid and useless
More radical (not violent) action is called for.
This is not a normal election in a normal political environment. Up is down. Left is right. Right is wrong. Reacting in a normal, reasoned way is non-sensical. Processing this as normal is a waste of mental energy.
Assuming a ticket change, re Harris and doubts, I don't understand. Her numbers are comparable to Bidens and she has the clear advantage of being significantly younger than Trump and Biden. Good with women, youth, POC. The case is made well here: https://wapo.st/3xEdgEp
Agree that the vitriol is unwarranted, I hope members will stop that now.
Please read the transcript - it is not as bad as some are making it, but TRUMP is deranged, lying, and scary af.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/read-biden-trump-debate-rush-transcript/index.html
Having discussions about this is important and I appreciate that the folks at Bulwark and others are sharing their thoughts- however unpopular-and the hard truth. The vitriol and aggression in too many people’s comments and in the posts calling for cancelled subscriptions to various outlets is alarming. It reminds me of magas leaving fox after that outlet called Arizona for Biden.
https://youtu.be/zw8te6EiIlY?si=mAa2bdA2jfbLgFZN
I waited a couple of days before listening to this because of the immediate reactions to the debate on Friday. I did not watch the debate because it’s painful for me at any time and always have ignored them. I am a high information voter and a reliable Democrat so right up front, I’m still “Riding with Biden”. I try to read/listen as much as I can from all kinds of viewpoints and I am willing to change my mind. I appreciate all of you and your analysis and thoughts on the debate and the aftermath. If the Democratic convention blows up, then I’ll guess I’ll have to deal with it then. The folks I talk to in my immediate circle are hanging in with Biden because Trump is a disaster. A lot can happen in the next few months. You know what I would like to see? More emphasis on Trumps crimes, his narcissism and his own issues with competency. I wish our Media outlets would do better with all of those but everyone is looking for revenue and Trump sells. I understand I’m not saying anything important but Bulwark folks, I appreciate you even when I vehemently disagree with you.
Well stated. A silver lining from Thursday's debate is it has made ALL Democrats passionate again about having the best presidential candidate to put forward against Trump. Passion has never waned on the left regarding a Trump defeat but it has been diluted with respect to the Democratic candidate likely poised to take on Trump. The internal fire now is a good thing however it manifests itself, we just need to make sure we keep it burning through November 5th.
It’s the Sunday after, and I’ve had several days to digest Thursday night’s so-called debate and the criticisms after it. Way too much is made of Biden’s performance and not enough is made of what Trump actually said. So, who do we want as our next President… someone who is FOR America, or someone who is AGAINST America?
I have been kind of offline and forgive me if this has been answered elsewhere.
What are the logistical, ballot, and financial ways forward with a new candidate?
1. Getting a campaign online in swing states will take more than just changing signage. Volunteers and staffers will likely divide between candidates fighting for the nomination and may not return to support the new nominee. Staffing and organizing field offices is nontrivial. Especially after a nomination battle up to the convention.
2. A former colleague who was counsel for Senate Judiciary and former Hill Chielf of Staff laid out the ballot obstacles for a new candidate for me. I learned that many states' deadlines are before the nomination, but most states allow the party to certify the nominee prior to the convention in order to meet the deadline. But if the nominee isn't known until the convention, they can't be certified in time. That means that Trump will be running unopposed on ballots and dems would have to rely on write-ins. In this case, they would lose popular vote and electoral college.
3. My understanding is that Biden Campaign cannot simply transfer contributions to a new candidate. It is complex, and would mean returning contributions and hoping the donor send the money to the new nominee.
All of these things need to be buttoned down *tight* before a decision is made. The Heritage Foundation has a battery of lawyers ready to contest every step, and the last thing we need is to wait on SCOTUS decisions one or two months before the election.
Those are all good questions and they must be answered, SOON. Get to work Bulwark podcast and find the people who have answers.
I sent an email asking if they could devote an episode to experts on these topics. They have to be answered before any decision is made, and my party is not known for being very well organized.
Thank you, Denis!!
Second...... Without good information, further discussion on this topic is a waste of time - and worse, it seriously burns people out.
I don't agree, Eva. I am learning things here with the good information others are sharing. And it's not burning me out.
What good information? What solutions are being offered that have a reasonable chance of being successful? I watched the debate. Biden did poorly.
I guess you didn't see my posting this - maybe I did it on Morning Shots or the Triad. "Here’s How an Open Democratic Convention Would Work" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd-yMMSZDOI&list=PLdMrbgYfVl-szepgVpArP0obwYgbKdfvx&index=29&t=44s). Others have pointed to issues with the ballot.
Posting a one hour video does not answer the questions.
What was the question? I can't get back to that comment.
Any one of those could be dealbreakers for replacing Joe Biden. I'm sure there are other considerations I'm not thinking of.
Love the podcast and agreed with both the analysis and the concerns expressed post-debate. This is no time for magical thinking. It could be ruinous for the Dems to go with anyone but Harris as an alternative if they are to maintain party unity and high voter turnout. Black women are the Dem party’s superpower. Lean into that. If you gave Harris a national defense/security expert or NASA hero running mate that could be especially powerful. Mark Kelly, anyone? AZ governor can choose Kelly replacement until next election so no hit to Dems in the Senate. Maybe AZ’s excellent Atty Gen Kris Mayes. With Kelly’s wife Gabby Giffords as 2nd Lady, she could give gun reform an even bigger platform. Harris-Kelly could be formidable. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/05/03/how-do-states-fill-vacancies-in-the-u-s-senate-it-depends-on-the-state/
In the event of an open convention, the Dems have to go with the best candidate for defeating Trump based on his or her head-to-head polling in the swing states. That's the only criterion. Somebody at the top of the party has to unify the various factions for whom that is not their criterion. That could be Hakim Jeffries, AOC, Nancy Pelosi, or Schumer - even better, all 4 of them.
I really disagree with Sarah Longwell, whom I admire tremendously, on Harris’s prospects. Sarah underestimates how the vote is driven by the current news cycle. I was Harris’s greatest fan when she was AG and senator of California, and relished her speech and debate style. It is no fault of hers that I have had to dig for her speeches in YouTube for the past four years. She is, moreover, the only person besides Biden with access to the huge amount of campaign money.
I watch Sarah’s focus groups attentively, but what they seem to me to register is an extreme distaste for Trump. Many good things have happened in the last four years, and her crossover voters don’t seem to register this. Kamala is smart, personable, with plenty of experience under her belt both within the administration and beforehand. She is furthermore logistically Biden’s only possible successor. Let’s all concur on this before the ballots are printed. Sarah Packard (Durham, NC)
Kamala Harris's biggest problem is that the Biden administration has not shown confidence in her, and has therefore not given her opportunities to prove herself and has not highlighted her contributions. Because of this, most voters' views of Harris are based on her failed 2020 presidential run. If the Democrats had held an open primary, she would have had a second chance to prove herself to voters, but that didn't happen.
Well, sure, but the news cycle turns on a dime in the U.S. It is established by now in the popular media that she is logistically his easiest successor, and one month, four months, plenty of time to make the circuit of news shows.
Media attention turns on a dime, but voter opinion does not.
Well…mostly I look at focus groups within this podcast, which confirm that two-time Trump voters who were taken aback by Jan 6 were still throwing up because of Trump, post debate. As far as Harris goes, she hasn’t been very visible. Yes, she will need to project gravitas to people who aren’t convinced, but you can’t deny she is light on her toes. I happen to like her a lot personally, but I don’t think agreeing with me is all that critical. I don’t want Trump to win, and a brokered convention would feed into his habitual narrative of chaos which we are right now feeding into. There are of course people who say Biden will make a sudden recovery. But when even the surgeon general, a man for whom I have a lot of respect, says he would urge cognitive testing, I’m afraid.
Biden should throw down the gauntlet with Trump: challenge him to a duel of cognitive tests. They both take the same test on the same day, administered by the same doctor, and the results of both tests are released to the public at the same time. If Trump refuses the challenge, it could help to neutralize the issue for Biden.
While they're at it, they could also take drug tests. I'm sure Trump would refuse that one!
Sarah, what role does Harris being a Black woman play in the vote? Is it just lack of coverage by the press?
She is not much covered. I think the cliche in 2020 was that the black sororities had her back and as a prosecutor in CA she locked black men up. She did of course do a lot of other stuff, with sexual traffickers and other violence. Nowadays she does seem to have the youth vote, gives powerful speeches on bodily self-determination. Myself I’d think she’ll be more at a disadvantage on account of misogyny, or internalized sexism, than racism, as was Clinton. The difference being that more voters fear a Trump administration than did in 2016, at least if you follow along in Sarah’s focus groups.
Hey neighbor (Raleigh here). I think the one thing that is preventing a blowout for Trump is that he is a uniquely bad candidate. If he didn't have the baggage, the Republican candidate would be leading by double digits. I agree that Kamala has gotten a bad rap for a variety of reasons -- she was a bad candidate in the primaries, racial/sexist bias, etc...but would be perfectly comfortable voting for her for POTUS. There may be logistical and financial advantages too (rather than having to move campaign funds to a new ticket....not sure about this). I am also of the opinion that a candidate born after the Korean War will have a build in advantage. I'm with the Bulwark team ... beating Trump is more important than any single candidate.
Agree with your last sentence. Ezra Klein has a good piece today, "What is the Democratic Party For?" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mylX_uMaX8k). He says this: "(In the past) parties subsume(d) individual ambition . . . you commit(ed) to the party and to the cause, never to the man.
"Parties lived up to this imperfectly, but at key moments, they did live up to it. Famously, it was a delegation of Republican members of Congress who persuaded President Richard Nixon to resign. There was more to the Republican Party than Nixon’s ambitions. There is not more to the Republican Party today than Trump’s ambitions. I would have told you that the Democratic Party was different, that it was not just a vehicle for Biden’s ambitions. Now I’m not so sure."
I don't think we are there (at least not yet). The party is doing what a healthy party does ... disagreeing and (I'm sure) evaluating polling data and other factors in making a decision. I don't see blind loyalty to Biden. I'm open to the possibility that it could happen. There are quite a few people on Xitter and other platforms saying the Dems are behaving like MAGA but I don't see it. The Republican Party would never be having this debate no matter how Trump performed.
Finally listened to the back half of the podcast, and heard Tim say "Trump is not an idiot".
I beg to differ.
Trump, yesterday: "All the know is electric. They want electric planes. What happens if the sun isn't shining while you're up in the air?"
Anyone who doesn't know the difference between electric power and solar power is, in fact, an idiot.
The path forward is well defined if Biden is as principled and honest as he claims:
Commit to releasing his delegates because of health reasons.
Have five debates in July with the viable candidates.
Let the damn electorate weigh in via polling.
Have a nominee before Ohio's August 7th deadline.
Biden and the DNC need to commit to 100% support of nominee. They created this mess. They need to be part of the solution.
Time to grow up and be honest. Biden is too old.
There is a way out and it won't be easy but it has to start now.
I'm tired of hearing how Biden's team didn't prepare him correctly. I'm sure they tried. The bottom line is Biden could barely remember his own name. The whole point of the debate was to prove that he (Biden) was still sharp and able to do the job. No amount of debate preparation is going to help someone that seems to be in significant mental decline. It's like giving a NASCAR crew a 1980 Chevy Malibu and telling them they have to win the Indianapolis 500. I like Joe Biden, but I like my country a lot more. This is not about Biden. 50 million people saw the debate. At least the first 15 minutes until they couldn't take anymore and turned off the tv. It was a complete and utter extinction level event disaster. It is not bedwetting to recognize that Biden has zero percent chance of winning after Thursday night. Like Michael Corleone said, "It's not personal Sonny, it's strictly business."
I am tired of people like presenting your opinions as facts.
You are not doctor. Nor do you know what caused is bad debate performance.
And, you sure as hell do not know if it will be repeated.
The electorate speaks by voting—not by polls. And, we have had ample evidence to back that up.
Show Biden's path to 270 electorate votes. It doesn't exist. That's why the Biden campaign wanted this debate NOW. And he failed miserably. It's all about 270 and it ain't there. Time to reboot with a new candidate. Not easy and very complex but Biden, his staff, and the DNC created this mess and now they need to grow up, own it and be part of the solution.
538 has Biden at 270 electiral votes.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
And there's this by Nate Silver in contradistinction to your 538 link....
As I stated earlier, yup - it's a dynamic landscape......
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-presidential-election-isnt-a
Yes, it's interesting. If you go state by state in 538's general election polls Trump is as follows in the swing states:
AZ Trump +4.9
GA Trump +6.4
MI Trump +1.8
NV Trump +3.7
NC Trump +7.2
PA Trump 1.9
WI Trump +0.9
This results in Trump 297; Biden 241.
Of course this is all taken with a gigantic shaker of salt as WI, PA, NV, and MI are all within the margin of error and of course this is the end of June not November 5th but these numbers have been on Trumps's side for sometime, hence the reason the Biden campaign wanted the early debate. I can only imagine these number will go up over the course of this week....a dynamic landscape for sure.
Again, your opinion and not a fact.
Just like you can't show a process and a candidate who does any better.
How do you know another candidate - let's say Harris - couldn't do better?
I do not know that, where do you imagine I claimed to know that?
You said, "you can't show . . . a candidate who does any better."
Making a point against the person claiming Biden had to go because of his view of how the EC would turn out. The point being that he was making an unfounded claim NOT that I had proof of that
OK. Thx for clarifying. How the EC turns out is only a guess about a future event. No one can make a truth claim about a future event.
If you want to know what I think:
As it stands right now, I do not believe another process with another candidate is a viable strategy. To lose the power of incumbency, to risk fracturing the coalition on some unvetted candidate (in the VP's case--not vetted on the top of the ticket) seems to me a far clearer risk. I mean there is exactly one person who has beaten Trump. That same guy as has also (in my view) been a good president.
Now, how I weight those risks can change with new data or circumstances
Polls this far out do not have a good track record of predicting the outcome. And there are a lot of things that can and will happen (rallying around him in response to perceived bullying and unfairness is but one example).
The difference between me and the people I am responded to is that I am not making pronouncements about what will happen.
I find the breathless instance and pounding the table to be beyond stupid because it ultimately relies on the assumption that those of us who do not agree are irrational, in denial, etc.
Thx. I find this persuasive because you gave me reasons and they're good ones. Agree with you about pronouncements about what will happen. Politics, like any human activity, is a crap shoot. We can only talk about what is likely to happen based on reasons and facts.
I think those who are unwilling to see the risk in the Biden candidacy are emotionally attached to Biden, more so than they want to defeat Trump. Ezra Klein has a good piece today, "What is the Democratic Party For?" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mylX_uMaX8k). He says this: "(In the past) parties subsume(d) individual ambition . . . you commit(ed) to the party and to the cause, never to the man.
"Parties lived up to this imperfectly, but at key moments, they did live up to it. Famously, it was a delegation of Republican members of Congress who persuaded President Richard Nixon to resign. There was more to the Republican Party than Nixon’s ambitions. There is not more to the Republican Party today than Trump’s ambitions. I would have told you that the Democratic Party was different, that it was not just a vehicle for Biden’s ambitions. Now I’m not so sure."
We at the Bulwark are pro-democracy and Never Trump. We are all aligned on beating Trump in Nov with a Democratic candidate. Which Democrat has the best chance to win? That is the question we must answer in the coming days.
“We at the Bulwark are pro-democracy and Never Trump.” Excuse me- who are you and why are you speaking for “we at the Bulwark?” The Bulwark pundits didn’t even let the dust settle or the polls come in before they pronounced President Biden as unfit to run. They don’t speak for everyone here. Neither do you or I or anyone else. The pundits, politicos and people who make their living doing this are seemingly addicted to drama, conflict, headlines, and attention. It’s a contest and the ones making the most noise seem to win, based on Thursday’s debate. No one candidate will do and be everything for everyone. My takeaways from this horrible experience are that real, consequential news like the devastating SCOTUS verdicts have been largely ignored on the Bulwark, loudmouth felons win bullying contests, what we saw was not a true debate, and because he failed at the debate Biden’s time is up.
The Bulwark claims to be a pro-democracy publication - they began as Never Trump. As to Bulwark subscribers, and I have been one from the start, I have seen no one who is pro-Trump or anti-democracy.
Thanks. I stay here for the opportunity to have thoughtful exchanges like this.
You are welcome. Same reason for me!
You are absolutely right. No one can. But Biden has been president for four years, vice president for eight years, and a US Senator from 1972 until 2008 and his approval rating is at 37% percent! Fifty-two years of public service and only 42% of his own party even wants him on the ticket. He won the youth vote in 2020 by 22%. Now he is only ahead by 2% with the Youth vote and that's closing fast. The convicted felon and January 6th insurrectionist is at 42% approval rating. Right now Trump is leading in all seven swing states and that is likely to grow over the next week. Indeed, moving forward is messy, very complex and far from ideal but good lord Biden is not the guy. Eighteen percent of Democrats are "very excited" about his candidacy while 79% of republicans are "very excited" about Trump. Beyond his small die hard base, no one likes the guy. That's not my opinion - it's a fact. Biden has had 52 years of exposure and this year he has spent $172 million dollars and Super PACS have kicked in another $65 million and he has NO PATH to 270 electoral votes. It's time to try someone else or not only will Biden go down in November but this thing called democracy will go down with him. Time to grow up - face the messy facts - and work like hell to pull this off with someone who can string a few sentences together in front of 50 million voters.
I am fine with you putting forward whatever arguments you want to.
I don't agree with them because I have not seen sufficient evidence. My point to you is to stop presenting your beliefs as facts and using those beliefs to disparage people.
I'm not presenting my opinions as facts.
These are facts, not opinions.
Biden's 37% approval rating as of today is a fact.
$172 million spent by the Biden campaign and $65 million spent by Super PACS are facts in 2024 and Biden is still behind in EVERY poll including EVERY swing state. Those are facts.
As of June 29th, 2024 56.7% of the electorate disapprove of Biden. That's a fact.
The NYT editorial board wants Biden to drop out. That's a fact.
In the swing state of Georgia, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wants Biden to drop out. That's a fact.
The Biden campaign issued a statement that the president's 90 minute incoherent freeze fame Thursday night in front of 50 million voters was attributed to a "cold." That's an insulting fact
You need more evidence. Fair enough. I don't.
Just curious, what are your compelling "facts" for wanting Biden to stay in the race?
Why don't you show me just one poll from any source you want, that shows Biden ahead in any meaningful metric? Just one.
Cheers
Dude, you are offering "evidence" to bolster your claim that Biden can't win. It is the claim that he cannot win that is simply not a fact. Which is, again, what I have been responding to.
Look further up in this string for my view of things (it was in answer to someone else.
No worries there. I agree. Of course it's not a fact that he can or he cannot win but our subjective opinions of the election's outcome is hopefully based on evidence which informs our critical decision making.
if this is true you absolutely need to stop the west wing fantasy storyline - "Wisconsin does not allow a candidate's name to be withdrawn from the ballot except due to death." https://www.foxnews.com/politics/heritage-working-election-legal-challenges-case-biden-pulled-from-dnc-nomination
Good lord, not true at all for either Biden or Trump.....that's why they're both still called presumptive presidential nominees. Neither party has officially or legally designated their respective presidential candidate and that won't be the case until the conventions. That's why in the FOX NEWS article your reference it states, "Heritage points out that many states — including swing states such as Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin — might not allow a replacement on the ballot." Note the operative language, MIGHT NOT. Since when do you think FOX NEWS and the Heritage Foundation is looking out for the best interests of Democrats and giving them free ballot advice? The fact that both Fox News and the Heritage Foundation want Biden to remain on the ticket should tell you something.....
I never said Fox new or heritage is looking out for the country's best interests. What it tells me is this is far more complicated than some people might want to think.
In the case of Biden voluntarily stepping down and NOT endorsing Harris - which is not likely - the Dems would have an open convention. Ezra Klein explained how that works last February with Elaine Kamarck, author of “Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know About How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates.” She’s been a superdelegate to five Democratic conventions. (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/21/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-elaine-kamarck.html).
But my understanding and I could be totally wrong is that there is a need for a virtual vote prior to the convention because Ohio is not willing to change their deadline for having someone's name added to their ballot and that's before the date of the convention. So if they need to have this convention brawl to pick a new person that individual won't be on Ohio's ballot unless a republican Governor decides to change the rules for them. How likely is that?
That's an issue, yes. At this point, that's all I know.
It would be interesting but I have no intention of subscribing to the New York times in order to read it.
I just discovered today that his podcasts are free on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd-yMMSZDOI&list=PLdMrbgYfVl-szepgVpArP0obwYgbKdfvx&index=29
thank you Sandy - that was a very interesting podcast! It was recorded several months ago so maybe he will do an undated version with her in the future. She has a kind of rosy view of what could happen at convention - did not really address how ugly it might be if in fact Harris' supporters objected to her being thrown to the wolves and did make it a messy vote. Also Klein did not address the issue of not being on the ballot if the deadline has already passed for a particular state by the time the convention takes place. Realizing Ohio is red anyway but would eliminating the presidential vote mean lower turnout for Dems for down ballot candidates. But I learned things about the 60s rule changes I did not know before.
You are welcome. I'm glad you listened to it - it's over an hour long. It was the first I heard of how an open convention works. Since then, ballot issues have come up. They will be figured out.
An open convention will only destroy the Dems chances to win in Nov if they do not unite around the best candidate to beat Trump. They united behind Biden in 2020. They didn't throw Bernie or Pete to the wolves. After Biden won SC which both Pete and Bernie did poorly in, all the candidates dropped out and united behind Biden as the only candidate who can beat Trump. It will be up to the party leadership - Jeffries, Clybourne, AOC, and the Obamas, all POC - to persuade Harris' supporters that the best data shows she is not the best candidate to beat Trump - IF that's what it shows - and that she's not being thrown to the wolves - she lost. There is so much at stake, I think it can be done.
I hope so - yes it was long but fascinating
They will give you a super cheap introductory subscription ($4/mo) to seduce you. The key thing is to remember to cancel in time.
Already had a subscription and canceled it
It's very complicated. No doubt about it. People are well grounded that changing candidates now is a desperate measure and very complex. But the Biden campaign wanted this debate and they wanted it now to change the trajectory of the race and they failed beyond anyone's imagination. So let's take honest stock of Biden's failing health and act accordingly. Of course polls change and of course polls are flawed and imperfect but it's what we use to have a sense of trends and all polls are quite clear that 270 electoral votes are not in the cards for Biden. Feel free to prove me wrong with any poll you want from any source you want. Time to reboot and keep our country out of Trump's hands.
And let's not forget the last people who should control this narrative are Biden, his staffers, and the DNC. They created this debacle. Their self serving rhetoric and protective campaign isn't helping this country. They are the problem, not the answer. The polling, the debate, and today's national conversation says it all.
Well, it’s only been one business day. Driving to Costco with my sister—who declined to watch the debate—I said sometimes things turn on a dime. And she said yes, sometimes they do.
I don't think he is officially the candidate until he is nominated at the convention.
That is correct. He is currently the "presumptive nominee." But the issue raised by the article is who's name is on the ballot. That's a different issue.
I believe that they're looking at a virtual vote prior to the convention because Ohio has a deadline they have to adhere to to get Biden on the ballot in that state
The last time this was an issue was I think when Adlai Stevenson was running, back in the 50s before there were pledged delegates. He was a fine man. He stood against red-baiting. But no, officially he’s not. In my best scenario he will ask his pledged delegates to vote for Harris, both because I have a high opinion of her—and a particularly high opinion of her rhetorical skills—and because she alone will have access to the campaign finance money.
I agree that if Biden were persuaded to step down, he most likely would endorse Harris. But she has been less popular than Biden. This is from two days ago: "RealClearPolling averages show that limited surveys suggest that Harris has an even bigger disadvantage than Biden if she were to run against Trump. The former president leads Harris by 6.6 percentage points (and) ahead of Biden by just 1.5 points" (https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-chances-beating-donald-trump-if-she-replaces-biden-polls-1918689).
So unless her standing in the polls vastly improve, replacing Biden with Harris doesn't make sense. The only thing that makes sense is an open convention.
As to the money raised, I think that belongs to the DNC. That's who I write my check to every month.
If Harris were constantly in the news her polling would improve. She is smart, personable, and not afraid to go for the jugular. I have actually had to seek out her speeches on YouTube for the last four years, and perhaps people formerly not that familiar with Californian politics responded to the polls without knowing much about her. It would have been great fun to watch her make mincemeat out of Trump Thursday evening.
Now you might want to check into that because I've seen other information that says the money written to the Biden Harris campaign belongs only to him and he could maybe transfer it to her
That's why I said, "I think". So I checked something I read in Feb. After the convention, the money raised belongs to the DNC, according to Elaine Kamarck, author of “Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know About How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates”. Until the convention? I don't know at the moment.
Good to know
Here's a counterpoint to bulwark's "Biden must go" opinion - Rick Wilson talks the presidential debate and slams Democratic elites calling for Biden to drop out (Dean Obeidallah show) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBj_CO2raWU
Don't cave - fight!
FYI, I have been a registered Democrat all of my adult life. I'm just a party member, not one of the elites. And I agree with what I've heard from Bill, Tim, JVL and Sarah, and they are not Dem elites. Members of my family, also life-long Dems do as well.
So it's not just the elites.
I don't think I'm caving. I've doing everything I can to defeat Trump. And that is all that matters. Rather, I'm doing risk analysis. There is a risk of losing with Biden and there is a risk of losing with an open convention and another candidate. When you do risk analysis, you collect as much data as you can. In this case, the only data that matters is polling (and to a lesser extent, donations) and the only polling that matters is MI, WI & PA, the three swing states Biden MUST win to win the EC and win the election. He won those three states combined by a mere 40K votes.
Which is the lesser risk? We don't have enough data to make that decision. The first data point going forward is how Biden is doing in the polls in about 10 days or so. It takes a while for the epically bad debate peformance to sink in to the the swing state electorate. So, for now, we don't know. In the meantime, I will continue to donate to the Biden campaign and prepare to canvass for Biden in WI in August (I live in blue state and have relatives in WI).
Yep, there are plenty of opinions. Even on Mona's show people voice their beg to differ points of view with such force of confidence when really, nobody knows for sure what's going to happen at this point. Yet, we are always told we have this famously short attention span. Republicans will continue to use clips from the debate to attack Biden and hope Democrats are going to start to return the favor.
Jill, I was talking about data - facts - not opinions. We will never know for sure what's going to happen. We can only decide what is more likely and that has to be based on reasons and facts. When you evaluate points of view, you have to look at the reasons and facts that support them and disregard the force of confidence in their delivery.
You don’t need to pretend that the debate wasn’t horrible to understand that unless and until Biden drops out, he is the only thing standing between you and Donald Trump’s second term. Your jobs got harder, but you still have to go out and do them. IF Biden drops out, feel free to opine on what should happen next, but until that happens, get a good night’s sleep and get back to the work of defeating Trump tomorrow.
Joe Biden’s team needs to be receiving much more criticism for their (over)preparation of Biden and for completely misunderstanding the assignment. They prepared him to participate in a completely different debate than we all knew that it would be. It’s as if they were both in drama class and told they would compete in a head-to-head competition where they’d each be given 2-minute intervals to speak for a total of 45 minutes apiece, after which the students would vote on whose presentation they liked the most. The teacher then chose the head-to-head competitors and first up was the Class Clown vs. the Valedictorian. The Class Clown’s team had him prepare 2-minute stand-up comedy bits, while the Valedictorian’s team had him prepare 2-minute Shakespearean soliloquies, because they just couldn’t help wanting to impress the teacher. Which one did the students like better, the bozo who entertained them or the nerd who tried to educate them?
Given the completely different approaches to the debate, perhaps a better response by all the pundits would have been to be more measured about the need to replace Joe Biden by conditioning it upon first evaluating the success of any potential alternative. To insist that Biden needs to step aside without having a realistic and concrete solution, not just random suggestions of Whitmer/Shapiro or Harris and someone else, simply adds to the chaos and colors low-information voters’ impressions of Biden’s fitness that they may not have come up with on their own.
I’m not suggesting that JVL, Tim and Sarah had to ignore the debacle that was Biden’s debate performance because that is not what we expect from The Bulwark/why we love them. However, a less damaging but just as honest response could have included a more considered reaction such as, “That was a disaster, Biden didn’t do anything that he needed to do, his performance made me want to drink/find some gummies/micro-dose, etc. It is definitely time to seriously consider whether Biden should step aside because we absolutely cannot risk Trump getting back in office. However, until we know whether Harris or Whitmer or anyone else is a viable alternative, we should be careful not to say right now that Biden stepping down is the only solution/right answer.”
if this is true Bulwark needs to stop the west wing fantasy storyline - "Wisconsin does not allow a candidate's name to be withdrawn from the ballot except due to death." https://www.foxnews.com/politics/heritage-working-election-legal-challenges-case-biden-pulled-from-dnc-nomination
Completely agreed!
So much measure, I wish the pundit class (which includes our friends of the Bulwark) had some humility like this.
But understand them too: Their job is to say stuff, so because of their jobs, they have to have an opinion on demand all the time, and it's hard, so there's a lot of recycling of biases.
I think in this instance they did not do as a great job of "calling balls and strikes" as they think they do
I appreciate you cleaning up the mess by posting some critical thinking comments. Thank you.
Absolutely the best podcast that I’ve heard since the debate. Tim, Sarah, and JVL, you three inspire me. Joe needs to step down. He and the Dems need to demonstrate true patriotism, by putting country over party.
People do not realize how influential TikTok is on many 20 something yr olds and how bad Biden is perceived by the young people…they don’t watch the news, their knowledge is coming from social media and in a year when Biden needs to galvanize young people….it was a total disaster for that cause.
I’ve judged so many Republicans for putting personal ambition over their patriotic duty to do what’s best for this country. If Joe refuses to even consider stepping down after the debate due to his own ambition, how is he any different? So disappointed. I feel like we were sold a bill of goods.
I spoke to my brother today and he said pretty much the same thing. He said if Biden doesn't step aside in favor of a competent democratic candidate then he will leave the box blank on Election Day. Granted this is a tiny sample size, but if Biden starts losing even a small percentage of people who were planning on grudgingly supporting him prior to the debate disaster, then he is done. Biden looked and acted like he had dementia on debate night. 51 million people saw it. He cannot win.
My brother in law said the same thing! He’s no longer voting for Biden, said he’d be embarrassed to tell people he did. Even if he wins, he’d still have to govern and what’s that going to look like in four years when these MAGA crazies are waiting in the wings? Id rather roll the dice on a fresh face that could get us through the next 8 years.
maybe have your brother watch this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBj_CO2raWU
I think many of these comments miss the point. It’s not just a poor debate performance. It’s a poor performance in ways that give us a preview of what another term will be like. The contrast between Biden’s performance four years ago and what we saw Thursday is significant. Imagine what another few years in this high stress job will do. He did not look or sound like a guy who can withstand the physical toll of this famously high stress and age accelerating position. Think about your own parents or grandparents as they went from 81 to 86. I decided in 2020 not to be concerned about Biden’s age because I thought Kamala Harris would be just fine, maybe even really good. I haven’t wavered from that position, but at this point I am extremely worried that not everyone sees it that way, and we’re doomed as a result. I am now at a point where I resent his (and that of those closest to him) inability to see this bigger picture and do what’s best for the country. That decision should have been made 18 months ago at the latest.
Can someone find out who the hell let Biden do events the day of the debate? Some staffer needs to get fired 🤬
So have you noticed that the Heritage foundation is getting involved already looking at lawsuits that is going to significantly complicate this switch that you seem to think is so easy. Each state has different rules and in some states like Wisconsin it may not be possible to have a substitute unless Biden dies
Was that aware of this, but this is another thing to add to risk score of dumping Biden side......
It’s not rocket science: Biden is too old and no one likes him beyond the partisan sycophants. The electorate gets it.
It’s not rocket science: In typical Democratic fashion these conversations about dumping Biden are 1.5 years too late.
It’s not rocket science: 270 is all that matters. Before the debate it was margin of error swing state-bad at Trump 287, Biden 251. By Wednesday (July 3) it will be real bad.
It’s not rocket science: Keep your eye on the prize - AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI. It was within the margin of error-bad before the debate, it will be real bad by Wednesday (July 3).
It’s not rocket science: MN and VA will soon join the margin of error-bad by Wednesday (July 3).
It’s not rocket science: ME will be margin of error-bad soon enough, whenever the forgotten state gets its next poll which may be a few weeks.
It’s not rocket science: Don’t turn a blind eye to history and forget that Biden barely won in 2020, winning by just 61,000 votes.
Relax, this is what I mean:
he won AZ by 0.3% (11K votes);
NV by 2.4% (33K votes); and
WI by 0.7%; (20K votes).
Not exactly a mandate.
Flip those states and Trump would have won.
It’s not rocket science: Biden had a great off ramp in spring of 2023 to not run, open the field to a meaningful primary where voters could get to know the next great leaders and get out of the way but his arrogant hubris won out over the interest of the country.
It’s not rocket science: Jill Biden and Valerie Biden Owens want to cling to their status more than save the country. They are complicit in this.
It’s not rocket science: Mike Donilon, Anita Dunn, Ron Klain, Ben LaBolt, Jen O’Malley Dillon, Cedric Richmond, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Quentin Fulks, Michael Tyler, and Rob Flaherty want to drown the electorate about Trump’s very real existential threat to democracy while hiding from the American electorate that Biden is as well. They are not patriots - they a selfish pols, complicit in destroying the country by hiding the truth about Biden’s health from the electorate.
It’s not rocket science: MSM should be hounding these inner circle folks on the record for interviews about Biden’s fitness.
It’s not rocket science: The ONLY way to get Biden’s delegates is to force his hand by drying up the purse strings immediately. Follow the money. As long as there is money, Biden isn’t going to give up one damn delegate.
It’s not rocket science: Democrats suck at strategy and will spend the next four months screaming about Trump, while trying to convince the electorate to unsee what we saw.
It’s not rocket science: Trump is indeed an existential threat to democracy but so too is Grandpa Biden who was nothing short of a corpse in front of 50 million voters on Thursday not to mention the world stage.
It’s not rocket science: When a campaign treats the electorate as dumb, saying Biden had a cold during the debate, the country gets dumb results in the general.
It’s not rocket science: Biden and the DNC are a propaganda machine: Only 81 year old enfeebled Biden can beat the crazy felon Trump? Oh, please. Have faith and trust in the damn the country and get out of the way.
It’s not rocket science: We’re doomed.
Your making claims without evidence of why people are supporting Biden. There are strong Biden fans - I do know a number of them. Until polls are there, we don't know full impact of the debate on the race - and even then, it's correlation, and not causation.
Biden’s approval rating peaked during the first week of his presidency in January 2021 at 54.7%. Since then it has been declining. His approval rating is now at 37% and his disapproval rating is at 57%.
I’m not a betting man but if I was, I sure as heck would bet his approval rating ain’t going up after Thursday and will continue to decline as it has for the last 3.5 years.
Elections are about electability and 37% approval rating and falling fast isn’t going to get 270 electoral votes. No way. No how.
Biden created this mess. Time for him to get out of the way so the anti Trump world can try to salvage this election - this nation - this democracy before it’s too late.
You have not shown polls about why people were supporting Biden - and you were making claims that "no one likes him beyond the partisan sycophants".... No evidence for that statement - it is all speculation - and insulting people who disagree with you. What you have posted in old public opinion polls - and not polling since the debate. I assume that polling after the debate will be available very soon.
Show me how anyone else could do better than Biden at this stage in the race - especially if Biden doesn't get out voluntarily. And if you want Biden to get out of the race, do you seriously think your rhetoric would be convincing to him? There is tons of venting about the debate here, but I've seen no proposed ways to move forward that seem like they have a significant chance of winning. Personally, I would favor putting more money and energy into Senate and House - and hope good Senate Candidates pull Biden up. At this point a competitive Presidential contest will hurt democratic house and senate candidates......
Per 538, swing states BEFORE the debate on June 27th:
AZ Trump +3.2
GA Trump +5
MI Biden +0.2
NV Trump +3.1
NC Trump +6
PA Trump 0.8
WI Biden +0.4
Per 538, swing states AFTER the debate on June 29th:
AZ Trump +4.6
GA Trump +6.2
MI Trump +1.6
NV Trump +3.5
NC Trump +7
PA Trump 1.8
WI Trump +0.7
These numbers are only likely to grow over the next few days as more polls are added to the aggregate.
It’s also worth noting that in both 2016 and 2020 Trump has always under-polled
Biden’s rating on Thursday BEFORE the debate on June 22nd:
Approve 39.9%
Disapprove 54.9%
Biden’s rating AFTER the debate on June 29th:
Approve 37.8%
Disapprove 56.3%
These numbers are only likely to grow over the next few days as more polls are added to the aggregate.
On Thursday BEFORE the debate only forty-two percent of Democrats are happy that Biden is the presumptive nominee, compared to 79 percent of Republicans who are happy that Trump is their nominee.
Enthusiasm matters! There is no enthusiasm for Biden beyond his sycophants. None.
Biden won the 18-29-year-old vote by 24% in 2020, and Hillary won it by 19% 2016.
Now Biden has only a 2-point lead over Trump among those between 18-29 and Trump is ahead by 1% among registered voters between 18-34.
This is abysmal! Enthusiasm matters.
The only reason there was such an early debate was because the Biden campaign wanted it to change these polling numbers and Biden failed at the debate in epoch proportions. It matters when 50 million voters see that Biden can’t talk.
Without doubt changing the ticket now is fraught with unknown risk. No honest person would state otherwise.
But doubling down on a losing horse who is only getting older by the day is riskier.
Time to dry up money for Biden and force him to pass the baton to the next generation of leaders. The notion that 81 year old Biden is the only Democrat in the country who can defeat Trump is what is insulting.
Now why don't you show me a poll, any poll you want from any source you want, that shows Biden wining 270 electoral votes in November.......
Sarah, Tim, and Jonathan: Have you seen this by Steve Schmidt (Steve Schmidt: Who Could Replace Biden? And Which Democrats Could Beat Trump?) posted June 29th? https://youtu.be/RHtUPOssYP0?si=LU62PPY3lwUH7Dpk
thanks for sharing...although I'm not the audience you were soliciting...lol
Hey Tim, Sarah and JVL, heard you on the Bulwark podcast. Yes, I understand your righteous anger at Biden’s poor performance. You might be annoyed at the feedback you are getting from Dems but no one is gaslighting you. We all saw what you saw too. Yes, it was painful. This was a huge mistake on the campaign’s part to have taken the risk. But we all need a short cooling down before we make our judgement calls here. The GOP is standing united behind a convicted felon, an insurrectionist, who is accused of stealing state secrets. No one has made any call to change him at the top after the conviction. The GOP has brought on this immense pain for the country and we are all dealing with it for the last 8 years. What exactly is Biden being accused of here? That he was suddenly found to have committed a crime, or sold nation’s secrets? That he nominated judges that have taken women’s rights away? It was a momentary lapse for an elderly man coming out of an extended trip abroad, negotiating deals, and dealing with a cold. Especially dealing with Trump who was employing the Gish Gallop to overwhelm with lies. Not worried about Biden being at the top. He has governed well, passed impressive bipartisan legislation and has an excellent accomplished cabinet members and aides who are looking out for what is best for the country. Our aim is to defeat Trump whoever the Dem nominee is.
And Tim, when Biden wins, you can look at the Fox Business hosts and give them a smug smile back
Biden has zero percent chance of winning after the debate disaster, so Tim won't need to worry about that.
OK, Biden’s performance in the debate was awful beyond any reasonable doubt. And he is not going anywhere.
So… where does that leave us? I think it leaves us without any variable left to guesstimate. Now we can focus on how to win with the hand that we were actually dealt. All chips are down and, in a normal presidential election, Biden would be left with little chance of winning.
But this is not a normal presidential election and we should stop treating it as such. In a normal presidential election, I would make up my mind about who is my favorite candidate and vote for them. Done. That is all that is required of me in a normal presidential election. And then I would go on with my life. And if the other candidate wins? So be it. That is democracy at work and I would still go on with my life.
This time we are dealing with a referendum on democracy. And by treating it as a presidential election we are fighting the last war. We are fighting valiantly but we are at a serious risk of losing. On the other end MAGA is fighting for democracy; for its demise that is. They know exactly what they are doing. They know very well that Trump is a horrible candidate, but they do not care because they think that with him they will get at least some of what they want and that cannot be obtained in a democratic way. They want minority rule. And WE MUST STOP THEM. Demanding a good presidential candidate will not help. Switching candidate mid-course will not help. Resurrecting Lincoln will probably still not help if we treat this as a presidential election.
In Italy at the end of WWII we had a referendum to decide if we wanted a republic or a monarchy. There were no candidates on the ballot. There were two different ways of running the country. This is how we have to approach this election.
On the eve of the 250th anniversary of the founding of our republic fate has called us to renew our vows with democracy. We should not be thinking that we are voting for the next president. We are voting for democracy. The candidates are just placeholders for the two factions. As far as I know Joe is still breathing and that is good enough for me. I am not voting for Joe, I am voting FOR DEMOCRACY!
And, yes, it is not lost on me that Joe showed us that he is ill equipped to make the case against Trump, or for democracy for that matter.
But when Benjamin Franklin said “a republic, if you can keep it” he did not mean “a republic, if your preferred candidate for president can make a good argument in favor of keeping it”… he said “you” which means “US”. We should make the case for democracy because “republic” means we collectively own this country and we should stand up for it when the events call for it. If we properly focus on the right message we can make the case. MAGA is doing just that relentlessly. They are fighting this war. We should shift gear and do the same.
How? Online, raising our flags (hey, how about spreading the word that a right-side-up American flag means that you vote for democracy?), mobilizing EVERYBODY that has any degree of visibility to make the case for democracy, maybe we can bring back the ice bucket challenge for democracy and show that millions of people stand for it, and gather in Washington for a democracy party, and… you get the picture.
This is it. This is for all the marbles. In November WE chose democracy. Not against Trump, against anti-democratic MAGA that Trump just represents perfectly.
…and also, assuming Joe decides to step aside, I don’t think he would bless any ticket without Kamala on it. That’s just not The Joe I’ve seen.
Thank you for HONESTY!!!! I am a huge Joe Biden fan and think he has been a very good President. Pretending Thursday night wasn't a problem would be malpractice. Anyone trashing the Bulwark is misdirecting the anger. I'm not sure what happens next, and will crawl naked through 100 miles of broken glass to vote for whichever Dem runs against Trump, but we must address the terrible performance.
Agree with all this. I also think the Biden camp has been pretty honest in acknowledging his terrible performance on Thursday, including Joe himself. (Something Trump/MAGA would never admit.) If Biden had been doing a shitty job running the country these past years, it might be more reasonable for people to immediately ask him to get gone. But he’s earned the right to recover. I’m hopeful he can continue to address concerns with more interviews and public appearances.
So we’re not worried about just bypassing Kamala and the effect on black voters?Just because they’re not wild about her is not the same as passing her over in this situation.
Agree
Thank you all for being truthful about what we all saw. I can barely stand to go on Twitter right now because I'm seeing so many Democrats pretending there is nothing wrong and we all just need to pretend we didn't see what we saw. Joe Biden does not seem capable of delivering a message and pushing back against Trump the way a presidential candidate needs to. I have long been disappointed in him for deciding to run again, but I'm now fully angry at how clear it seems now that he has put his ego ahead of what's best for the country--and maybe he can't see that that's what he's doing, but shouldn't the people around him? Anyway, I know you all are getting a lot of shit from some people, but I appreciate you speaking your minds.
Biden was very bad in the debate, but his later performances that I saw were ok. And democrats defending Biden are doing so partly because they don't see another option.
Sarah, the arguments you are putting forth aren't going to be convincing to Biden. More people telling him what Al Sharpton said about the good of the country would.
Also, at this stage, how does Biden dropping out not make things worse. I haven't seen clear paths to getting a winning campaign going. The only possibility for that would be Biden dropping out, and choosing Kamala.....
Biden is not showing he can do it! In enemy territory he collapsed. Biden can't make it toe to toe with Trump. He tried to kill the age question, instead he brought it into sharper focus.
Maybe he needs different advisors?
Maybe he needs a total changeup in how he approaches the campaign. Fight fire with fire! When in Rome do as the Romans! He is campaigning against Trump like he was running against Romney. The approach he is using is old school. It is not going to get him the sound bites that make a good news flow. Old school may work for me but will it get him the support from the independents, center/right Republicans and the young?
Trump has taken campaigning and elections to a different level, a different theater, a different paradigm, call it what you like Times have changed
He needs some standup comics to advise him, school him on how to meet Trump and turn the tables on him. I believe it can be done. I don't think Biden can do it. Maybe Kamala could. It needs to be somebody who is mentally fast and quick with the X and Threads ready zingers.
Thank you so much for this podcast, the debate was a painful experience for those of us who have rallied behind the democrats and Joe Biden, you three were honest, reasonable, and passionate. It does help to have this type of coverage. We have to find a way to get through this, the Democratic Party will sink to a low like the republicans if they don’t have honest, forthright evaluation of this situation. If we are to trust what they say about democracy being at risk with Trump we must bring our most competent candidate forward. The Republican Party will not be responsible to replace their candidate, the democrats again must do their patriotic duty and replace the ticket. This is about the American people. I do think many are in the various stages of grief, shock is one layer, we need to get into anger, acceptance, the planning a future.
How does this actually work Robin? Biden has the pledged delegates more than sewn up for the convention. You think democrats aren't having honest discussions about this - ofcourse they are, but you've got to look at the risks either way.
I will never vote for Trump, never have even voted Republican for any race. I just am not certain they are addressing this as opposed to just hoping Trump implodes. I am encouraged to hear that you are certain democrats are having honest discussions about this. The task is great but giving up because of delegates seems way to risky. This harsh reality is brutal for us all.
Another food for thought comment: I don't remember where I read it, because I have so many things the past three days...but, Trump was quoted as saying they would love to get rid of Biden because even where is now, he still polls higher than all the other possible replacements, even Michelle Obama...could we be playing in their hands by getting rid of Biden or melting down?
Check out Seth Abramson's Substack on this very topic. It's a great read. https://substack.com/home/post/p-146081128
Thank you very much. I wish the Bulwark would read.
I have it saved, I just haven't got to reading it yet, thanks
I love Joe Biden. I think he is a smart, compassionate person who has devoted his life to public service, and he’s done an excellent job as president. HOWEVER, he needs to step aside for another candidate immediately. I 100% agree that no one could watch that debate and not think there is something seriously the matter with him. Biden cannot run. He cannot be limited to infrequent campaign events where he reads off a teleprompter. And clearly, whoever prepped him for the debate had no idea how to “debate” Trump, all of Biden’s shortcomings notwithstanding.
The NYT editorial board has called for him to step aside. Can we circulate a petition, or create ads, asking him to step aside? I will vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is. But it has become abundantly clear that enough voters are disenchanted with Biden that he cannot win. No amount of wishful thinking can overcome that.
As JVL always says, it’s not fair. The race is asymmetrical. However, at this point Biden and Trump are BOTH unfit. Trump is clearly the far greater threat; this is not a “both sides” thing. But that doesn’t matter if Biden cannot win.
the only folks 'disenchanted' with Biden are panic stricken Dems. You watched that debate and were convinced that something is the matter with BIDEN? Did you miss the spray of outright fantasies, lies, unfinished sentences and thoughts of darkness and doom from the OTHER FUCKING GUY? You all need to get a grip. And you will see this completely differently in two weeks and all the Bulwark guys - JVL, Sarah and Tim - will need to apologize.
You are preaching to the choir. Obviously we all know that Trump is a lunatic. The problem is that Biden is not capable of prosecuting the case against Trump, and therefore he will LOSE. It is manifestly wrong that such a huge percentage of voters will vote for Trump. But that is the reality we live in, and we need a candidate who can actually beat Trump.
We actually don't know that Biden can't win. And we won't know until election day. But I haven't seen anyone proposing to have a different candidate offering a clearheaded path for getting that candidate through the convention.
I am sorry to say this but I find Kamala Harris' voice becomes annoying with time. It doesn't wear well imo. Call me shallow, but I wonder if this would have an affect on the electorate (which already doesn't really like her)
Do you vote on the basis of voice annoyance? I do not consider vocal quality an essential qualification for president. My understanding is that polls for Kamala are going up.
I do not vote the basis of that, but I have to overcome the annoyance. OTOH I don't find physical frailty to be as bad as an authoritarian strongman attitude. This election will be won at the margins, many of whom are the double-haters. It's wishful thinking to believe appearance and sound don't count. The president is someone people will think about whether than can listen to them for the next four years. Hell, Dukakis lost because of how he looked in a tank. Ford made one misstep in a debate. Nixon looked too sweaty in 1960.
Your personal irritation with Kamala's voice doesn't speak for others without evidence. There were more reasons than the tank that cost Dukakis the election. Jesse Jackson had a strong primary campaign against him, and he failed to consolidate Democrats in the general. Yes, elections will be won at the margins, but I don't think looking at vocal quality as a qualification for being President is a serious suggestion.
I agree that my impression is not evidence, and I cannot say how widespread it is. I’d love to hear focus groups on how Kamala comes across. Right now she hasn’t been visible enough for people to have any impression whatsoever.
She has done well on campuses - and Joe Biden can't go to Campuses due to the risk of demonstrations. She got kudos from many journalists for her recent appearances on CNN. I have also seen polling that she is polling at the same place as Biden v Trump. Other candidates - Whitmer etc are lower.....
Biden’s debate prep people did not do well, shall we say. Better is coming.
I got an idea - how about we all take the weekend off from takes - eat drink dance watch sports and the first season of Northern Exposure and see how we feel on Monday. I listen to people talk like Trump is 10ft tall because of his unmoving poll numbers despite disqualifying himself daily..
What if Biden's age is as baked in as Trump's criming? If the polls don't change or Biden goes up can we stop putting forward demands for radical changes that would alienate the D base. If his pols crater we can have that convo next week.
Nobody knows anything yet. Go drink a margarita (or four).
Exactly. The Democratic bedwetting started in the first three minutes. That has to be a new record. I get that the debate was bad... really bad... but everyone needed to take a breath and see what the real impact was before calling for something as absurd as Biden stepping down or the governors of swing states basically deciding for the party who would be running in Biden's place. That's not how we do things anymore.
Actually the polls are already in -- BIDEN increased by one percent! Stop freaking out and check the numbers at the overnight morning consult. Of course, the headline for that poll was that Democrats want Biden to step aside, not that the audience saw Trump as the lying sack of shit he is. Now, go watch your TV show and have a beer --- and take a break........all y'all
Northern Exposure would be a calming reset. Good idea!
It has aged like fine wine. The music alone...
I like this advice!
Being president isn’t about doing a joint press conference with a cretin and a felon screaming insanities in your face. Being president is what he does best, in so many, many, functions, with a team that is top notch. Bringing the convo back to the choice framed like that, it seems clear he can recover.
One "known unknown" in this whole discussion about age, and the Biden-Kamala conundrum is that Trump hasn't announced a VEEP yet, and he will have to do so a full month before the Democratic convention. Then the rules of the game change.
Trump could pick someone that 60% of America finds odious. He could pick an oil drilling billionaire who pisses off Gen Z. He could pick an insane younger woman, and then misogyny becomes less of a liability for Biden-Harris, or Harris-Shapiro, or Shapiro-Whitmer. He could pick JD Vance and white-rural Americans might notice that JD Vance actually despises them. He could pick some very-elderly religious dude who thinks women should be seen and not heard and not given access to birth control.
If I were a Democratic strategist, I would want Biden and his surrogates out there campaigning hard not necessarily for the Biden-Harris ticket, but for the Biden administration as a whole until Trump announces the 2024 ticket. And then formulate a plan plus half a dozen back-up plans based on what happens in Milwaukee.
I still am not up to watching this pod; but my brother - who is also a lifelong Dem - watched it this morning. He told me about Tim's comment that all Biden had to do was get a C-, and how angry he was. My brother has been ranting for the last 36 hrs., and said, "And I agree w/ him [Tim] 100%."
Enjoyed the post debate podcast. You were all over the map. I think you all missed your calling to be in IT support. "Hello, I'm having trouble with my computer." "Well, have you tried this... or tried this... or this... how about this..."
I disagree very strongly (lol) with you all that it was Biden's job to fact-check Trump at a "debate"*. That's all he would have been doing the entire time; surely you guys realize that. I agree that it wasn't Bash and Tapper's job either (except maybe they could have pushed back on the one about mothers and doctors killing full-term babies after they're born), but they COULD have ensured that both candidates answered the question that was asked, and not moved on until they did.
Also, when did anyone, especially the NYT, demand that Trump step down from his candidacy after he was found liable for sexual assault? When he was guilty of financial fraud that his businesses committed over years, and was ordered to give up his business licenses and enjoined from doing further business there? WHEN HE WAS CONVICTED OF 34 FELONIES? And if no one did, why not?
*This is the problem of giving a serially lying convicted felon the same platform that we give an incumbent candidate.
Thank you:)
As I just reread that, I realized two very important conclusions. First, the crisis point I managed to reach is not good, not good at all. If anyone needs to reference what untreated ADHD can look like, they need not look further!
The second conclusion, I now understand why the the first word used to describe me has always been hilarious. On the flip side, I can understand why that maybe questionable if you don’t know me.
Overall, the stress and fear that this has caused me, is not something I can even make sense of at this point. My fear of Donald Trump is so great, gets worse daily when decisions like the most recent from SCOTUS are handed down and the realization that he may actually be above the law is almost too much for me to bear.
One of the great questions in my life will forever be why I chose this public forum and someone I do not know to share this with, but here we are. I have been struggling for HOURS (that’s a lie, it’s been days) to write the things you just did in probably under 5 minutes! I’m all over the place in these comments and still haven’t been able to sum anything up. What’s worse is I’ve written so many words that I could probably fill a novel and now I’m questioning if half of it even makes sense! I have come to tears 3 separate times and had to walk away in hopes my brain would unscramble itself just long enough to sound coherent and concise.
It has not.
I haven’t even told you the worst part, I started writing this at 9am and at 9:20 I saw a mockingbird and an oriole in the tree outside my window. The chain of events that were set in motion by seeing those two birds, is so beyond the pale, that all the places I ended up don’t even make sense to me. I will tell you that I managed to purchase two portable air conditioner’s and return two portable air conditioner’s. So if you’re able to keep track, that leaves me with no portable air conditioner and I’m just as hot and miserable as when I woke up.
What have I learned today? For starters I have a problem and should definitely consult my physician. ADHD is a lifelong struggle and it would appear as though mine is worsening with age. Lastly, I need to read the reviews before purchasing a third portable air conditioner because my dogs cooling mat only stays cold for so long once it’s removed from freezer.
100% 💯 this. As others have mentioned, the format was a mess and the flood of lies/non answers was impossible to deal with.
Yes, agree.
My only issue here is… none of us have any control over this. I highly doubt Biden will step aside if his family doesn’t suggest it. If he did, I think that might be a disaster as well. I think regardless, at this late stage we are in a mess. I’m not a Dem, but I’ll be voting blue regardless this time around. The rest is far above me. I am left very disappointed, not only in the debate but in all that claim they care so much about democracy that have left it in such precarious terms. Smh.
Thank you for voting blue!
For a long time I missed talking to friends who, though our political ideals were different - made me think outside my echo chamber. Republicans had lost their minds and then I found the Bulwark. I’ve appreciated listening and learning from people here and thought I’d found some reliable journalists, who despite my never trust a current or former Republican philosophy were making me reconsider.
Then, even though all the polls have not come in on the debate, you all lost your minds. You self important, manipulative people saw one bad night and began a crusade against the very guy who saved us in a hundred different ways. You are the mob with torches. You are setting fire to what we had. I think you, the NYT, the Boston Globe and every other paper creating the chaos will be responsible for trump being reelected. You’re no better than the people you say you despise. I am a paid aubscriber but I’m done. You’re all the same as access journalist Maggie Haberman and petulant Sulzberger.
I completely agree and see you. You are not being crazy. I have a PhD and I am on the exact same page as you: The Bulwark doesn’t understand the power of media and information ecosystems, and they do not understand that they have the power to shape perceptions.
On their best days, each in their own topics, JVL, Tim, and Sarah have very insightful explainers.
But the rest of the time, they are victims of the same biases and have many of the same blind spots of media as a whole. What is sad is their popularity is sometimes making them all less humble, which is an important intellectual quality to have to be a truth seeker.
Since the media is not perfect — yet is essential for society to "see" itself — it is more valuable for you to pick the sanest media source you can and try to make it better.
Your pushback is useful, and I think The Bulwark staff do read and think through some comments.
You might also check independent columnists like Noahpinion.
Thanks for your response. I had not seen/read Noahopinion. Really interesting column. This is no longer a sane or safe place for me. Ironic, because that is originally why I came here. I appreciate the Hopium Chronicles and the Daily Beans so I have other options. Thanks for acknowledging that the Bulwark staff doesn’t understand the power they hold. I fear that they may not recognize this let alone acknowledge it in a way that invites others to acknowledge their own power. It would be an interesting research project to try to study the effects of Covid, isolation and the decline of the two party system on a representative democracy. (Like you, I have a doctoral degree.) I already understand that such a scope would likely be too broad but… Again, thanks for being present in this challenging time.
I htink you are a bit hard on them, and assuming motives
I do not agree with them, but, I still love them to death
Don't desert them, wait till things calm down...they are needed to beat Trump
I’m hard on them?! That’s rich. They are judgmental people with the power of all their listeners behind them who have turned their back on the guy who got Trump out of office. They are traitors to the loyal listeners and to the president. I won’t be a part of the drama they are manufacturing.
I think your description, "You self important, manipulative people..." is grossly unfair and inaccurate. I'm a blue through-and-through Dem, and I respect and appreciate them. I don't think they're at all like e.g., NYT. In fact, they regularly call out the BS WaPo, NYT, etc. publishes.
These people put everything on the line to fight T***p. As Tim said recently, he has no future in politics. They've repeatedly praised Biden's performance. They have every right to express their concerns - the same concerns anyone who's being clearheaded and honest are having right now. I've never once seen one of them say or write anything manipulative.
You're free to disagree w/ their position; in fact, one of the things so many of us love about The Bulwark is that they welcome disagreement - respectfully. Another thing we love is that almost always commenters ARE respectful. IMO, your comments are NOT.
Many of us are furious right now - and panicked, heart broken, etc. Please don't take your upset out on people who ARE ON OUR SIDE - in terms of defeating T***p. That has to be the #1 goal right now.
Media is manipulative. There are all kinds of manipulation and this is still a form of manipulation. Don’t like that word? How about engineer? Devise? Plot?
You are entitled to your opinion as I am to mine. I said what I see. Waiting for the polls would have given everyone a chance to have some sort of knowledge, just as waiting for the vote to be fully counted would have given the Bush v Gore election a chance for us to know real results. Instead, republicans rushed it to the court. We know how that turned out. A fake war for the rich to profit from. Paid for by we the people.
Media has power and so do the content creators here. Don’t like my opinion- maybe it’s because there is some truth to it. Media is instantaneous and people who work in it have to have something to say every minute. And so they are doing so. I don’t however, have to support them anymore. I can tell them why. Don’t like my anger or my opinion? Sorry, not sorry.
They actually aren't what you call news media...they are an activist group actually, with a specific goal...beat Trump.
- I don’t think their approach to their goal is reasonable, smart or pragmatic. I won’t be a supporter of it.
I just think we're all on edge b/c the stakes could literally not be higher: The American Experiment is on the verge of ending. (Who could've imagined 10 years ago that we may not make it to our 250th anniversary?) And I don't think turning on each other helps anything; we already have dangerous amounts of divisiveness in the country.
The Bulwark was established to stop T***p from getting back into office. They have put their money (and their careers) where there mouths are. There's no doubt in my mind that this is still their goal. Yes, there are disagreements about how best to achieve that goal. But the disagreements don't have to be acrimonious, nor include name-calling.
Yes, the Bush v Gore thing was 100% BS. Mitch blocking Obama's SC nominee was 100% BS. Their claim to be "pro life" (at least for the ring leaders) was 100% BS - as JVL pointed out in his newsletter earlier this week. Etc. But as Liz Cheney has said, we can disagree about everything else only if we preserve the republic.
It will indeed be interesting to see what the next polls say.
“The American experiment is on the verge of ending.” What you wrote there is true. The Bulwark and its content creators are now active participants in its ending. You wrote that you don’t think turning on each other helps. Yet the Bulwark has turned on President Biden. I don’t understand the divergence of your thinking. It’s fine to stand behind the Bulwark, but not Biden? Yeah- this place is no longer a safe, generous space for me.
Yes these hyperboles are so stupid and harmful. Do they realize the US is the oldest country in the world, still operating on its (amended, sure) founding constitutional documents? And they are willing to throw that all away without a fight?
Yes darn it Bulwark. You can do better than selling us out.
What I find so frustrating is that the Dems are just like the Republicans. Circling the wagons around a candidate that they wish wasn't running. Party over Country. Can we please not be like them. I will vote for whomever the Dems put up against Trump. As Sarah is wont to say, it's a vote against Trump. But man this is annoying.
If Biden does not drop out, we must seek out an independent candidate to support. Clearly our two major political parties are failing us in this moment of crisis. It's time to ditch them. If the Democrats do not resolve this matter within one or two weeks, we must leave the Democrats behind. Our nation is too important. That is the path forward. Stop waiting for Biden to drop out. He probably won't. Like Dianne Feinstein, he may not even be capable of making the decision. We must find someone now. We must act now. I vote for Liz Cheney.
It’s replies like this that make the Biden bashing I’m hearing here so damning. How many voters will take these hair on fire takes as “they both are equally bad”, so RFK Jr or writing in Reagan is better than voting with Biden and democracy
Biden cannot win in his condition.
I am not sure that is true...I have read a lot of stuff in the past three days and I see more horror at how Trump acted, than dislike of Biden, lots of people sympathize with him...
I don't dislike Biden at all. I have policy disagreements. I'm mad at him for running in the first place, especially now. I would not be surprised to learn someday that Biden's "cold" was a mini-stroke. He was exhibiting aphasia. If Biden were to step down in January, he'd be remembered as an American hero. If not, the only statues will be of Trump.
Any indpendent that exists is as bad as Trump if in different ways
ANd they can't get on the ballots in time for a new one, that is not a good path
Look what happened to that other , whose name is escaping me, independent supposedly center left/right group gave up
There's still time to get paperwork in for write-in candidates in those states such as Texas and New York. No, can't get worse than a felon fascist coup plotter.
WEll, Texas doesn't matter, it will be Red
My state probably will too, (OH), but even if it wasn't, there are no write ins allowed in OH, and the deadline to get on the ballot is pretty close
As far as I can tell, write-ins are allowed. The candidate would need to get paperwork of intent 72 days before the general election. I don't know. As you may surmise from my original post, I'm a Liz Cheney fan. The cult of Trump has indeed warped people's brains, but maybe Ohioans would come around to a bona fide conservative like her if she were to run.
I like Liz, and appreciate everything she has done
but, policy wise she is pretty far to my right, so, not sure that would work, and I am a middle of the road left leaning independent
Dear god, do you understand that that would guarantee a trump win?
That's what people say over and over again. But we have a unique situation. The debate proved that it cannot be Trump versus Biden. Neither is fit for office. Neither.
Ralph Nader, for another.
People say it because it's been proven, over and over again.
There really aren't examples of any such thing proven other than Ross Perot. Not only is this situation unique (felon fascist coup plotter versus a severely addled elder), it's an emergency.
The Democratic has to be unified. People have to put their egos aside for the good of the country. Good luck!
C'mon you guys -- KNOCK IT OFF!!! You're all supposed to be smarter than this. All the flash polls are showing BIDEN gaining from the debate. Trump is still a lying sack of shit, he proved it on that stage and undecideds are seeing THAT.
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/J9htZwHUcMMgDbSA/
Thanks JVL for mentioning Gavin Newsome as a worthy successor for Biden. I think he’s an outstanding leader. I’m confused by the reflexive Newsome-hate by Dems as well as Republicans. Cali is really a great place to live. Expensive, yes, but you get what you pay for. And Newsome is smartest about immigration - talk about an important cultural and economic issue.
I think people balking that everyone is “putting too much on one debate!!” are really missing the point. It wasn’t that a bad 90 minute performance has flipped dem world upside down. It’s that Biden showed he literally *could not* do the ONLY thing he had to do at the debate. The election will not be decided by Bulwark subscribers. His performance solidified a hard exit by anyone on the fence, aka the voters who matter most. It’s ok to want better for your country. We really don’t have to pretend rolling with Biden is the only choice here. Because I can promise you, the worst case scenario in Trump world, what they fear the most, is Biden releasing his delegates and the Dems backing literally anyone else.
Listening to you on Saturday morning - you’ve made me cry.
I appreciate your compassion for President Biden - but the panic is real.
I’ve been using the wrong name for what TFG pulled Thursday. Here is what happened:
The Gish Gallop
A rhetorical technique in which someone throw out a fast string of lies, non-sequiturs, and specious arguments, so many that it is impossible to fact-check or rebut them in the amount of time it took to say them. Trying to figure out how to respond makes the opponent look confused, because they don’t know where to start grappling with the flood that has just hit them.
It’s a form of gaslighting.
Who let Biden go out? He was sick, for God's sake? They should have set a future date.
Sarah, Tim and JVL. Thank you for this podcast. It felt like both a giant bear hug and a snap out-of-it slap in the face ala Cher in Moonstruck. I needed em both. God bless and get some rest this weekend. The entire Bulwark staff deserves it.
Lefty-Lucy here. Really, not as lefty as the Squad, but a life-long Democrat. Look, whatever your past, your present should be acute anger. How did Biden’s handlers allow this to happen? Good grief! I’m angry, sad, heartbroken, and frightened. Now … for tomorrow. Biden needs to step down and support a new candidate. This isn’t an LBJ moment, it’s new and unique: “I am ready to pass the baton. I will do it today.” Make Kamala president today and move forward with vetting her new V.P. (Rafael Warnock? I guess you need someone from a blue state to ensure appointment of Dem replacement.) They go into November as leaders. They slam Trump 24/7. There you go. Maybe my brain is fried.
It will be interesting to see if Biden gets a second debate. I think it is unlikely b/c Trump's people would be smart to not let him debate again. But if he does, he should not prepare with facts, he should start every answer with "everything Trump just said is a lie" and then answer the moderator's question while also touting the economy, pandemic recovery, and the fall of Roe. Just hammer that over and over.
And Convicted Felon running to Stay Out of Jail. I just listened to Sarah’s podcast The Focus Group, and heard from a Hispanic voter going back to Trump who thought that because he’s a convicted felon he would have compassion for people like her brother . . . Trump? Really? He has no compassion, no conscience, cares only about himself. It might be time to let that psychiatric group, the Duty to Warn bunch, speak, explain that the things nice voters don’t like about Trump are far more serious than they realize, and if given power again he could get away with murder.
"Tell the truth", yes? Whose administration have you been glad of? 90 bad minutes does not wipe out 3 good years.
It just did
Sorry, but I see that as the hysteria the media is whipping up. Trump can't finish a coherent or truthful sentence but look where the laser focus is.
K. So how do we beat him, (them)?
Keep our focus. Work to re-elect Biden. Breathe.
You've seen the polls, yeah?
I see you are sharing the freak out on multiple threads. It is not other Bulwarkers job to reassure you. Better to spend our (and your, if you can) energy toward electing Dems top to bottom.
Sure, once we have a viable, reliable candidate
America has asked too much of Joe Biden. He ran for a second term because no one was willing to step up and take down MAGA. Democrats are full of ideas and ideals but lack practicality. Their broad coalition is a blessing, but against a lying, narcissistic, sociopathic real estate “mogul” it is a big curse.
What has always been lacking in both political parties is common sense. And common sense will be getting the shaft again this November.
There should be a loud persisting challenge from Democrats And all who see Trump as an And all who see Trump as an existential threat that Biden hold multiple full on press conferences over the next couple of weeks. Let him prove that the debate was just an anomaly. I fear he cannot. And I would hope the challenge would bring him to his senses. Kevin Doyle
Democrats should have run a competitive primary. They keep going with the established candidate vs finding which one is in touch with the voters (e.g. Hillary was the prior planned candidate). I’ve always liked Biden, but its time to shake it up.
While I share your concerns re Biden's debate performance, I'll take the continuance of the Biden administration over Trump's any and every day.
Quit bedwetting everyone. We're going to beat Medicare.
Laughed out loud, Brett. Thank you!
Same podcast- “Shapiro and Whitmer don’t have name ID” and “the candidate doesn’t matter, it’s all about Trump.” Which is it? Name ID definitely doesn’t help Biden, most people who know his name disapprove of him. Get him out of there and run someone else. If a voter doesn’t recognize their name, imagine how happy they’d be to Google it and find an energetic youngster! Also, Jeffries isn’t in the line of succession.
Thanks for sharing David Frum's Atlantic piece-- it's masterful--he really nails it--"Trump should never have had this platform. The debate was a travesty--because its whole premise was to treat a failed coup leader as a legitimate candidate for the presidency."
David Frum concludes the piece by saying Joe Biden will not save our democracy from Trump. It's up to us--those of us who care about our democracy--it's our job to save our democracy from Trump.
Harris should be allowed to do what she does best--nominate her for Atty general.
https://justinrosario.substack.com/p/that-debate-really-pissed-me-off
"He lied and lied and lied. Every sentence out of his repulsive mouth was a lie and neither Tapper nor Bash raised a single objection. They knew he was lying and they didn’t hesitate to move on. They treated every disgusting lie exactly the same as they treated Biden’s truths. The most perfect example of bothsiderism ever to be put on TV."
I agree with you totally. This is a very difficult situation. And we have to face the truth, no matter how hard it is. If the democrats don't deal with this honestly, for the sake of our country, I am deeply disappointed.
The conventional wisdom about Trump is that he obviously is lazy and does not work as president so much as engage in the trappings and it is the shadow cabinet that did (and plans to do) the real work. Why can't that be acceptable for Biden? I think he is probably still MOSTLY capable, and I know that is a horrible thing to say when electing a president, but Trump and his Project 2025 staff would be infinitely worse. And I think changing horses now is impossible without imploding the Democratic party. The presidency is more than just one person, as John Dickerson points this out in his book "The Hardest Job in the World" https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/604093/the-hardest-job-in-the-world-by-john-dickerson/
What clearly happened before and during 2016 is that many people assured Trump that they'd grant him all the authority and none of the responsibility as president. They would do all the hard work, because their goals neatly overlapped with his. While they were determined to destroy the Republic, under the pretense of defeating the "radical left," he never cared either way for anything but his id and ego. They gambled that they might losing voter support for some of the riskier things, such as attempting to steal the 2020 election, letting him steal classified documents, etc., but were pleasantly surprised that voters stuck by him (& them) even after he was convicted of felonies.
A vote for Trump, or a 3rd party candidate, or not voting, risks putting that felon back in power, where he may be permanently allowed to escape accountability for the other indictments, and also, ironically, the opportunity to prove his innocence. But more importantly it would restore power to a "yuge" gang of traitors more radical than ever. Those who did try to reason with Trump - and the others - in (Kelly, Mattis, Bolton, numerous members of GOP Congress, etc.) soon found themselves outnumbered, and now know better than to apply for the job.
Politics USA: NYT Calls On Biden To Drop Out: Here's Why They're Wrong "I have seen way too many pieces dashed off about how Democrats could replace Biden before the convention, but all of those pieces are missing one key component. Replacing Biden would cause chaos and rip the Democratic Party apart. Democratic Voters Don’t Want Biden To Drop Out
The media defers to Republican voters and their love for Donald Trump as a justification for why a convicted felon is still running the Republican Party. However, the press seems to have no qualms about steamrolling over the wishes of Democratic voters who don’t want to see their nominee rushed off the stage and out the door.
The last we went through this Biden needs to step aside hysteria was in February when MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell pointed out: There is one other candidate, besides Joe Biden, who has raised money for the presidential campaign and only that one candidate who’s done that is Kamala Harris, the money raised for the Biden Harris campaign was raised in the name of both candidates, so Kamala Harris has a legal claim on all of that money if Joe Biden were to drop out of that race."
I am no political expert operative - but what I do know is my huge level of frustration when I listen to Sarah's podcasts with "swing" or "double hater" voters and understand their lack of knowledge (not about wonk policies - but about lies and evil behavior of trump) is the basis for their indecision about the upcoming election. I would like to see a focus group in which the moderators DO actually try to educate the voters and determine what truths actually work to change their minds. I want to know if there is a big money PAC that is going to use the statements Trump made in the debate to create attack ads (abortion rights =putting a baby aside to decide whether or not to kill it!) Many people watched the debate but just as many did not and they are going to base their opinion on all the pundit feedback. Bumper sticker politics as usual. Fight back!
I listened to this podcast thinking "this is Ruth Bader Ginsberg all over again", and nothing in this podcast did anything to dissuade me that it's not going to end exactly the same way.
Joe and his enablers are going to hang on too long, it will be too late, and as a result we all lose our rights. Again.
Everyone is talking as if he is going to die tomorrow. How was Joe functioning the day before the debate, the week before? How did he function when talking one-on-one with Bibi or Zelensky, or the Macron? Did he come off that he's on death's doorstep in those interactions--that obviously didn't have a teleprompter??
That was exactly my thought as well. The results of RGB failing to accept the reality of old age was disastrous for America; if Trump returns because Biden failed in the same way would be magnitudes worse.
I hate to break this to you guys but Ipsos, I think, had Biden moving up 2 points in a poll of before and after debate watchers.
Until they all heard all these post debate opinions I fear!
Agree Biden has done all we asked of him to do, but he did one more thing we didn't ask - he decided to run again. FWIW, in April 2023, I didn't think any other Dem could beat Trump. This is 14 months later. I think Whitmer or Shapiro could.
Whether or no that's true, I have seen no evidence that any of the possible names being floated (other than Newsom) want to be president.
Only their closest advisors would know at this point. With Biden as the presumptive nominee, they wouldn't say.
If Sotomayor would resign now, Biden can appoint Kamala.
Great suggestion. I’m going to have a better day bcs of this. I was crying. Now I’m smiling through tears. Bring on Gretchen Whitmer or Raphael Warnock. Then run on a “Joe’s good, but look who’s next” strategy.
Ziva, I hate to spoil your day, but even though this is a great suggestion, it's not likely. In the last few months, I started reading about a few calls for Sotomayor to step down now because she has health complications from diabetes; if Trump wins, and she doesn't last the next 4 years, we'll have a 7-2 court. Justices are not supposed to think politically about when they resign. Ginsburg didn't do so when Obama was pres, even though she had a lot of health problems. Then she died and Trump appointed Barrett.
But it's possible. Anything is possible this election year.
this is an idea that could solve a lot of problems as Biden could then bring on a new VP that's fresh and could take over the reins.
Now that would be good.
I've been utterly adrift the last 28 hours or so, really shattered by Biden's obvious inability to maintain any coherent argument or counter-argument under the unscripted circumstances of a "debate." But it now appears that the Democratic ranks are closing around Biden, and this is not something I myself can endorse. His performance was cataclysmically bad, at a fundamental level of everyday intellectual engagement, and what will he be like in 4 years?
We really need to be firm about replacing Biden. He's great, I love him, but he should not be leading the free world. And Satan must be defeated. It won't happen if we don't raise a clamor. Please, guys, it's time to unleash hell.
I completely agree with this.
I LIKE the Dem governors getting together and deciding to back Whitmer and Shapiro and not running themselves!
I would love for you guys to share more details about why Kamala gets so much criticism. Is it gender a la Hillary? Her race? To me she has always seemed smart and strong and I loved her in the senate.
Also, I am skeptical that the same Dem campaign team that allowed this debate debacle could pull together a whole switcheroo of a new ticket. And I’m a yellow dog democrat!
It’s all very disturbing and disheartening. But I’m trying to follow Sarah’s advice from Denver about NOT succumbing to exhaustion. It was great to see you there last week. (Sarah, I was the goofy lady who shook your hand outside the venue when you were headed to the bar.)
1. Nobody who has worked for her wants to work for her
2. Her own presidential campaign was a notoriously dysfunctional flaming train wreck
3. She has no ability to generate 1-to-1 face-to-face rapport with people outside her tribe
Whatever her merits may be (and they are many) that particular combination is utterly disqualifying for a presidential candidate.
Also, the right wing noise machine succeeded in making it seem that She had been given responsibility for the border overall, that was just untrue.
I’ve been utterly baffled by the years of singular rancor towards Harris.
I’m dejected. For the passed 10 years or so I’ve knocked on doors and hung flyers convinced I could make an argument for my democratic nominee for office. I can’t honestly ask my neighbor to vote for Joe Biden. Shit, I can’t even ask my wife.
Get some sleep.
Ok. I slept a lot. Painted my living room and refinished the floors in my living room and dining room. Biden should drop out immediately.
Disagree but hope the sleep helped. Stay well.
Pa-07 rep reppin
Old people don't recover from cognitive decline, and their judgement and memory only gets worse. Anyone who has cared for an aging parent knows this all too well. I applaude Biden for the impressive accomplishments that he got through the legislature with narrow margins. But the President of the United States is not only our leader, he leads the world. Right now this world is on fire. His decisions have consequences far beyond our borders. Can he make consequential decisions for four more years? I think not; he should step down.
Tim and Sarah hit JVL a lot about his West Wing politics fever dreams (which I think are usually perfectly sane btw), but today they went off on one of their own. Even if Biden were to step aside, to think Harris and half a dozen senators would just step aside and anoint 2 governors is a Season 1 Sorkin West Wing episode for sure. Breathe people. Sheesh. It was bad, but they’re gonna do what they’re gonna do, but this surely isn’t it. Jvl was nice enough not to point it out.
Gotta ask this... How many folks here saw the livestream or were lucky enough to have attended Biden's fundraising event a couple of weeks ago in Hollywood? Jill Biden did the job of attack dog in her speech and she nailed it. Then we had a sit down with Biden, Obama and Jimmy Kimmel. Did you get concerned like I did when Biden seemed to struggle getting his points across? Maybe you were glad for Obama's clarification / amplification of what Biden said. Maybe you wrote off Biden's performance that evening (like I did) because he had just come directly from the G-7 conference, 9 timezones away. In my mind jet lag must have been why Biden didn’t seem to be doing well, although he did seem to perk up more near the end. If you did, were you shocked as I was Thursday to see that guy again? One time I can write it off. Twice, I can't. He has done a heroic job, but the office has weighed on him. He needs to do what is best for the country, as all the Democrats running against him in 2020 decided to do when they suspended their campaigns and got behind Biden.
Last night as I began to watch I just felt my stomach drop. I always believed that, while old, Biden was still fully competent and capable of doing the job of President. After watching Biden last night I no longer believe that. If it comes down to Biden vs. Trump, I will still vote for Biden , because I believe Trump is a truly evil man. However, last night's debate performance makes it impossible for Biden to win, barring some sort of serious Trump health event. It was a disaster of epic proportions, not the one off "bad night" the Democratic spin doctors are trying to sell us. Apparently they think we are of equivalent intellectual power to the Trump rubes who are led by the nose. If Biden does not withdraw from the race he will be doing the country a grave disservice.
It's a simple question -- do you think Kamala woutbe a stronger candidate? That's it. There are no other options and honestly I don't think Biden is going to bow out regardless.
"You cannot solve a problem without acknowledging it." "I am in this to beat Trump, not to be pro Joe Biden." I appreciate your prospective on this political rat nest. Your goal is to beat Trump. Biden's team should have seen this outcome. Did they not know how to guide him or did they intentionally let the debate debacle happen? I am not opposed to you all having this discussion. Biden's done a good job over the past 3.5 years... but he is not showing good judgement NOW... Our goal has always been to beat Trump. Not to address this huge risk would be derelict of duty.
Swap in Kamala and everyone get behind her. There is no other realistic path to any possible victory. And do it soon.
This is all chaos, so I’m just here to give a DeVotchKa +1 🖤
After listening to Stuart Stevens say that the Current MAGA/Republican party has to burn itself out, I gave a hypothetical as to when it could happen. Let's say Biden wins. MAGA keeps doing the same schtick and the public stays the same.(meh) Lets say Trump wins and we have four years of crazy, god awful Trumpism. Afterwards the public is fed up. 2028 sees a wholesale change. I didn't say it, but I could see the second scenario more likely to happen. Now I like Sarah's idea of aggressively coming out with both barrels blazing with surrogates. But that won't happen. We are talking about Democrats not Republicans. I see no solution. If Democrats haven't made the case against Trump by now they never will. He hasn't been Rip Van Winkle for four years(or eight). I see Trump winning and we have to experience the next four years to realize what we need to do and better ourselves as a country. Sorry for the really dark view here. I desperately hope I'm wrong.
I think it's important to remember that if T***p manages to get back in the Oval Office he will only leave on a stretcher. And even then, he and his sycophants will have destroyed our gov't. to the point that Don Jr. or Lara or some other family member will step into his place. Bottom line: if he gets back in, there will be no 2028 election - except possibly in the sense that Russia still has "elections."
That is always a possibility.
I forgot to include that I commented on Tim's pod the other day that I've thought the same thing Stuart said about MAGA having to burn itself out. And I certainly don't disagree w/ you that T***p winning is a very real possibility. And Dems (of which I'm one) certainly don't have the very successful messaging machine that Repubs do - which is unlikely to suddenly to change at this point.
D.D.,Democrats never have. I really like that deep bench that Democrats have.(Shapiro, Whitmer, Polis, Buttigieg, Moore, Pritzger, Colin Aldred, and John Avlon. All they need is more National exposure.
The irony here is that we all accuse Trump supporters of willingly supporting a man that is clearly unfit to be president and we're about to do the same thing with Joe Biden. When you are convinced that the other side is worse, then you'll ignore any number of red flags to win. Our country is totally screwed and the founders are turning in their graves. How did we allow this to happen?
It’s too late bedwetters. Get a grip already! Biden is the nominee. I’m not apologizing for anything! He is my choice for President, again. Full stop!
Amen. Talk about bedwetting. I've been listening to Tim for a while now, but sometimes he and his crew just get things completely wrong. The complete freakout by Sarah in particular was ridiculous, but I've come to expect it from her on occasion. I think she got in her little insulated inside politics group at Aspen last night and they all talked themselves into a collective tailspin.
She's a focus group "expert." It's odd how almost NONE of the focus groups I saw last night and today had the sort of reaction the political operatives did. I was rather surprised myself. Last night I heard Republicans and undecided voters show concern about Biden, but then also admit that Trump didn't answer a single question and lied the whole night. When they asked for a show of hands for who was voting Trump and who was voting Biden after the debate, it was STILL half and half.
Nothing changed last night. The race is still between an elderly man in decline and a liar who has dreams of overthrowing our system of government. I think it was a bad debate performance - that's all - and this was a BADLY NEEDED WAKEUP CALL to Biden's whole team. This "old man" issue isn't going away. They need to meet it head on, and after last night they'll be forced to. They're being paid a lot of money to figure this out.
Excuse me- what emergency do you all have at the Bulwark? Getting people riled up? Being influencers? Telling people how you, a group of podcasters and former Republican operatives think it should be? This sounds a bit arrogant to me. I don’t like what happened last night and I have been grateful for the Bulwark as a place to read and learn but as far as I know, none of you are Biden staffers. Maybe they could learn from you, as many of us have but what’s happening here now seems unhelpful.
But I have a suggestion. Maybe you could learn and help the public and your colleagues learn how to deal with mentally unbalanced, republican candidates who will be continuing to flood our local, state and federal offices. That would be a practical and useful service to those of us trying to live on earth one.
Thank you! I refused to even listen to the Bulwark once I saw Mona “Trans women in sports is huge problem and even though I benefited greatly from affirmative action as a white woman, people a different color from me should stop whining while I joke about it “ Charon was there. Ugh!
thank you for your valuable contribution to the Bulwark comments section.
No one cares what I think. Get a life, man.
I was honestly very surprised listening to this for a couple reasons.
We need to stop with the fantasy politics. I can’t fathom how a new nominee at this stage in the game, someone who’s not tested and who has no infrastructure for a campaign can effectively run a successful campaign in the presidency.
The debate was bad, Biden looked bad, I’m not pretending this is something it wasn’t. All this post debate punditry does is make the democrats look weak and unorganized. This is our guy, as Sarah has said this is the reality, stick by it through the hard times because it’s not changing. He can do the job even if it doesn’t sound like it sometimes.
I don’t believe last night was as legacy defining as you insist on making it. He had a horrible night, but now we sound the alarms? Come on. It’s too late for that now.
I have lots of positive things to say about Biden which unfortunately makes it particularly shocking to me how irresponsible his campaign looks after the debate.
When a debate opponent tells dozens of lies that the other party in the debate can’t possibly refute within their allocated time, it’s called the “Gish Gallop.” It’s well-known in debate circles that opponents of a galloper are likely to appear confused and helpless.
Superficially, the liar appears to win.
I’ve never read of an expert that has an effective way out of the bind the galloping liar creates for their opponent.
I had to have a bit of a laugh before I could sleep last night: I have lived in the MAGA world long enough now to finally gain some understanding of how things work. For a change, one of Trump’s stories seems to have some credence. It seems that at tonight’s debate, President Biden was indeed experiencing the effects of some drugs. An undercover reporter has revealed that a Trump undercover agent had infiltrated the working group at Camp David and had managed to spike a number of Biden’s drinking water resources with a quite potent dose of Xylazine. This fully explains his more than relaxed responsiveness and rather lowkey approach to the debate. It is possible that effects had begun to wear off toward the end of the 90 minutes, but the damage had been done.
Damn it JVL. I’m exactly where you are. In fact I couldn’t disagree with anything you said.
I have been supportive of Biden. Love him. After watching the debate, this is the first time I would consider retiring him. However, I (1) have no agency over it, (2) no one else does but him and maybe his wife and (3) I still feel he has the most likely chance of winning (it’s worse now).
I struggle with Tim not because of what he said but because you want this all to happen publicly. That is NEVER going to happen and wishing for it is not only not likely to happen but also would hurt the party even more if it did publicly.
Sarah, love you but if your issue is age then you should be happy with Kamala but for some reason you think your choices are somehow better than Kamala. I’m open to that they are but if you try to ice her out you willl destroy the party. You cannot ice out the first black female vp and expect the base to turnout. If your answer is they will. Ok fine then center right people will is as well. It goes both ways. You can’t say the stupid crazy left will turnout no matter what person we give them but the moderates won’t if they don’t get exactly what they want. Your whole point is age and anti-Trump coalition. If this is the case then Kamala is your candidate.
Look if Biden drops out the nominee is Kamala. Stop the triple bank shot stuff. I’m ok with anyone but you will do more harm than good trying to do the bank shot.
Sarah did say at one point that she could be OK with Harris. I agree with you that throwing her under the bus would lose a chunk of the base, and she's the natural choice for the top of the ticket. It would disgust me if they forced her out. Her approval numbers are bad, though, no question. That's what makes all this so hard.
To be clear, I’ll vote for any dem nominee. Like if Ted Cruz switched parties and became a dem I would crawl over glass to vote for him over Trump.
My issue is Kamala polls better than everyone other than Biden. Now maybe the polls are bullshit. They could be. Kamala isn’t my first pick but she is most likely to be the nominee. The convention, if it’s open, is going to be thunder dome just like in ‘68. It will look like the Republican house speaker race in 2022 when my Kevin won and in 2023 when Mike Johnson won. It will be an absolute shitshow. Maybe it doesn’t matter. Shit. Nothing has in this race so maybe that works out but it’s more likely we get screwed either way.
I just think, and I could be dead wrong, that Biden given the above conditions is more likely to win.
I also don’t think people understand how good of a candidate Trump is. I don’t understand it. It confuses me but there is no more powerful politician in my lifetime than him. Taking a random governor or a Vp seems like a death wish. I hope I’m wrong.
I like Sarah’s suggestion of Shapiro/Whitmer. I don’t care for Kamala on the ticket at all which is why I am all the more concerned about Biden running. I would love for those close to Biden to ask him to step aside. Regardless of what happens, I will vote for any Dem but I’m in a blue state. It doesn’t make a difference where I live.
I like your suggestion Brenda.
OK. Indy ticket Cheney/Christie
"All I have to do is dream.......Dream, dream, dream." *Everly brothers
Joe Biden said he would be a bridge to a new generation. He's going back on that. At least the Republicans had some semblance of a primary.
Because nobody much ran against Biden. Who stepped up with the goods? Nobody!!
I've been a loyal moderate Democrat my whole life, ever since I ran screaming out of a Youth for Nixon club meeting my mother sent me to.
I absolutely agree with Sarah. Kamala Harris is certainly capable but cannot win. This has nothing to do with race — too many swing + independent voters don't like or even know her much because nobody has seen what she's done in 4 years.
I think the idea of Gov Josh Shapiro and Gov Gretchen Whitmer as running mates is encouraging. As pointed out:
• both won their states by at least 10 points
• both states are important swing states
• both have name recognition (at least in their states, which is hugely important)
I love Joe, and absolutely believe in his goodness and that he's done a fantastic job, but as the Bulwark team agreed: this is not about Joe any more . . . it's about saving our country.
With more time to reflect, read, and watch — especially after seeing Joe’s really strong performance at his rally in No Carolina, I must admit that I now feel quite torn about the best strategy going forward. But remembering to <breathe> and be more circumspect is key.
I’ve reminded myself: we’re not just voting for the man, but what he represents, and the team he’s been able to put together. They’ve accomplished a helluva lot for the country.
Decency. Honesty. Love.
We Know Joe.
I like that ticket.(one or the other at the top) But that is quite likely in 2028, not 2024.
I would be happy with anyone. I would vote for Biden if he was in a coffin.
The people you list ran against absolute lunatics. Now, I will give you, trumps a lunatic too but he is a popular lunatic. I think it’s equally likely that Trump smokes gretch in Michigan as Kamala. I could be dead wrong.
Honestly I think all these people lose other than Biden but it’s close. Kamala has the best chances in my mind than the others because she has been traveling to every state the last 4 years. Gretch has never needed to win Latinos. How does she do with them? Maybe great? But I have no idea.
The problem is if Biden drops out it’s Kamala even if he doesn’t endorse. Delegates are connected to the campaign not to random governors. The convention if it’s open is going to be thunderdome and it will have nothing to do with who can win. It will look like when Kevin was trying to get elected to the house to be speaker (where he had to give the freedom caucus committee assignments and let them evict him with 1 vote). It’s going to be full on horse trading with interest groups. It’s going to be like Mike j when my Kevin got kicked out of the speaker where they roll through like 6 different candidates and deals are made.
Kamala wouldn’t be my first, second or third choice but if this happens she is the most likely candidate by FAR.
I don’t understand why Joe Biden’s team couldn’t have him laughing at Trump the way he did during the Paul Ryan debate. You have 6 days of preparation and they knew that mannerism mattered more than substance.
Instead he looked like he had no idea what he was doing and barely looked alive. If he had kept his head high smiling with some cursing under his breath then at least the average person wouldn’t like him but they would realize he’s capable.
You got that right!
It was awful. No idea how it turned out so shitty. Likely a lot to do with Biden but my god if he stays in he needs to fire a bunch of people.
I was hoping to hear different here. I think trump wins twice if every one now freaks out. We got in with the Illusion of Biden turning into Superman surfing on that unchecked tsunami of lies like a hero. Instead he walked in a tired old man who was under the weather. I also wish he would have spoken like he spoke just afterwards or later at the rally. But he face planted. Like trump did last time. Like Obama did before. Heather Richardson in her Substack makes a great point. Trump used a technic to flood the conversation partner with falsehoods and unconnected issues. It is impossible not only to keep track but to first correct all this in the given time and then make your own point plus at a time of day when most of us are only able to sip a drink and watch TV.
Also people have gotten so used to judge optics over content that it did not matter anymore what Biden said after the first 11 minutes. I have no idea why this would be called a debate when moderators only guard time slots but do not facilitate an actual debate. Also telling the truth should be part of a debate rule. I think some one needs to rethink political debates in this country more than if Biden can still think straight. He surely is slower. But what makes him a responsible and able president is that he is well versed in negotiating, understanding how the world works and to listen to experts. None of this is true for 45. Besides Biden has the statistical advantage of the incumbent on his side which a new nominee would not.
If Kamala is the presidential candidate, the Dems will not have to spend a DIME in Georgia to win it.
Seriously?
Quoting @AuthorRandallB "If y'all valued debates, Hillary Clinton would be president. She ATE HIM UP every debate. Every single one.
And look what happened. Y'all are gonna feel how y'all feel regardless."
As upset and betrayed as I feel by every political, media, legal and policy institution in this country, I feel most betrayed by my fellow Americans. Because the reality is that Randall is not wrong.
This is why I subscribe to The Bulwark. Great discussion. Loyal lefty Dem than I am, I've gone through most of this day feeling that we have no choice but to gut it out and hope for the best with Biden. But Tim, JVL, and especially Sarah have swayed me toward the idea of Biden stepping down. It's a little hard to imagine Democrats actually replacing him in a dignified, unified way, but these are strange days. Perhaps it's possible.
Agreed!
Watching the NC rally made me feel a little better: https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/biden-hold-campaign-rally-north-carolina-hours-after/story?id=111515800. This is the Biden we needed last night. If he’s staying in, and it looks like he is, and we’re doing this thing, all of his surrogates and prominent supporters need to get out there and hammer home the message, a la the way Newsom did on MSNBC:
https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/amp-video/mmvo213864517612.
A BIG part of that message should be that we support the policies and values of The Biden TEAM. He’s not doing this all by himself after all.
Honestly if Biden doesn’t drop out he needs to make changes to his team. He needs to fire a few people.
Oh, the team that proposed the debate? He far from alone
THANK YOU! Your comment mirrors my reaction to Newsom ‘s post-debate comments, my conviction it should be mirrored immediately by every surrogate and blanketed by them in the media and that governing is a team effort.
Truly appreciate the honesty and thoughtful comments made by you Sarah and Tim and JVL about Biden’s horrific performance last night AND the clear, important reminder that Trump must be beaten. Thank you all for your work and your honest wisdom. Appreciate it; it was just brutal to have to watch that debate.
I wonder if Kamala would consider stepping aside if she were promised the AG spot in the new administration.
Not a chance. If we replace Biden everyone would believe the chances of being re-elected is low. She won’t take a demotion. She is a politician and expecting her to die on the cross (maybe it happens) is just wish casting. If Biden drops out she is going HARD for the presidency. No way she thinks someone is better than her (not saying it’s irrational but it’s irrational to believe her not to act like a hungry politician).
The fate of western democracy lies at the feet of Judge Merchan, please please please give him a jail sentence!
Let’s not despair, please. A debate is forgotten after 2 days usually. Biden showed up at a rally today in better shape and high energy. May be we all just needed a wake up call.
My man. This debate was awful. I could not imagine it being worse.
However, I think you are 100% right. This thing will be forgotten by Wednesday.
Just remember (not saying g you don’t): the president had the worst debate ever watched. A week later he was admitted to a hospital for Covid. The country saw how bad he was at handling Covid. He tried to give his opponent Covid at the debate. That man was Donald Trump. That event happened 3 weeks before the election. We forgot about it 2 weeks later
I think there could be 2 possible positive takeaways (hopefully at least)
-People remember how bad Trump was and still is and that he has a real chance of becoming president
-the Democrats start taking this election a lot more seriously
Good point!
This is the Democratic Party. There are superdelegates that have an important role to play. You didn’t even factor them in.
Skip
Congratulations! You have officially become pearl clutching, bed wetting Democrats! I admit I only made it through about 10 minutes of the pod today. It was too depressing for me to listen to all of you kicking Joe to the curb because he didn't perform to your high standards last night. Would you kick your kid out if they disappoint you??
I used to love all the Bulwark's pods but right now, I am disgusted with all of you. I'll give you a few weeks to come to your senses and I'll check in again. Meanwhile, I suggest you go listen to the Meidas Touch hot take that Ben did. He was showing Biden at a NC rally today. Amazing! The crowd was not ready to kick him out either. Go watch that and then I'll expect a heartfelt apology for your ridiculous calls for Biden to step down.
Talk about bedwetting. I've been listening to Tim for a while now, but sometimes he and his crew just get things completely wrong. The complete freakout by Sarah in particular was ridiculous, but I've come to expect it from her on occasion. I think she got in her little insulated inside politics group at Aspen last night and they all talked themselves into a collective tailspin. Yes, it was a disaster. But come on. Get a grip. Talk of Joe stepping down now is complete delusion.
She's a focus group "expert." It's odd how almost NONE of the focus groups I saw last night and today had the sort of reaction the political operatives did. I was rather surprised myself. Last night I heard Republicans and undecided voters show concern about Biden, but then also admit that Trump didn't answer a single question and lied the whole night. When they asked for a show of hands for who was voting Trump and who was voting Biden after the debate, it was STILL half and half.
Nothing changed last night. The race is still between an elderly man in decline and a liar who has dreams of overthrowing our system of government. I think it was a bad debate performance - that's all - and this was a BADLY NEEDED WAKEUP CALL to Biden's whole team. This "old man" issue isn't going away. They need to meet it head on, and after last night they'll be forced to. They're being paid a lot of money to figure this out.
They need to figure out how to put today's North Carolina Joe Biden in front of America. Maybe that's a town hall or two. And leave the facts and figures behind. He can sell his policies and make the case against Trump without them.
yeah, and tomorrow?
But how many voters witnessed that as opposed to last night?
Not that many people either saw the debate or Bidens performance the next day. Whats your point?
It’s now “big news” because of all the bed wetting going on. People are sharing it, and the news is (finally) focusing on Joe.
He was on a teleprompter there.
Presidents don’t debate. That’s not the job. They give speeches written by their speechwriters. Listen to Pod Save America. Those guys are super smart and funny. They were Obama’s speechwriters.
It’s easy to find out what he’s done (he actually said it on stage while trying to argue against the firehose of bullshit) and to tell others, and when he’s reelected, as he will be, he’ll do so more things as long as we give him a D Congress.
If we don’t, he’ll have to do everything by EO and we better elect a Dem in 2028 if we want to keep those orders. But he’s not scared of using an EO. He does those a lot—student loans, immigration.
All the world leaders respect Joe Biden. They know that he’s sharp and canny and experienced and *cares about them.*
Netanyahu and Xi and Kim and Putin want Trump. A lunatic (I’m pro-Israel, not pro-Bibi), a communist dictator, and two insane murderers.
I wouldn’t care if he was playing Candy Crush up there while Trump kept up his stream of bullshit while Tapper and Bash licked him up and down. I’ve voted in a lot of elections and I’ve seen Biden be a fireball debater and speaker, and I watched the SOTU.
He was tired, had a cold and a sore throat, was probably on some cold med, and was grossly overprepared. I don’t blame his debate prep guys for that, I blame them for not telling him to just say his top ten over and over and pretend Trump was invisible. Answering the question asked clearly didn’t matter to CNN so he should have just stated his accomplishments and plans over and over.
I’d have had him say, “Good evening, Convicted Felon” and then pretend he was invisible for the rest of the night. I’d have insisted they be fifteen feet apart because Trump likes to try to give people whatever ailment he’s got, and no split screen. I don’t want to look at Trump’s stupid orange face when he’s talking, much less when he’s not, and I definitely don’t want to watch Biden looking bored and overwhelmed by Trump’s antics when Biden isn’t speaking.
He did a pretty crummy job. It was one night. People don’t vote from debates, as demonstrated by post-debate polling. Making ads out of the NC rally is easy peasy and most people will think it’s the debate. Monday is Immunity Day (think of that in Bill Pullman’s voice) and everyone will go back to hating SCOTUS, which is correct.
I’m really sorry about the length of this. I started out to answer your legit question and then got carried away.
Biden's debate performance reminded me of Dan Quayle's performance in his VP debate. Quayle began his political career as the congressman from my home district, so I had heard him speak many times. He was even the speaker at my college commencement (we share the same alma mater). The debate was easily the worst performance I had ever seen from Quayle. The Bush handlers had clearly over-prepared him for the debate. I could see him struggling to remember what they had told him to say, instead of just being himself.
Quayle's career never recovered from that debate performance. I hope Biden is more fortunate.
Plus me
Tim/Sarah/JVL - I just need to say how much I appreciate and support you. All the comments jumping on you for doubting Joe Biden are making me crazy. You all said that if Biden is the guy, you will go balls to the wall to support him and defeat Trump. It is not abandoning Biden and being hysterical to look at objectively bad situation and ask what the best option before us is. You guys are amazing. Thanks for the straight talk.
That’s not what they said, ever.
Deabting even listening this time, be the first one I ever missed...but, going by what all the other stuff that has been said on various places, I am sure it will just upset me big time...
I will keep thinking about it, but, I just know it will upset me even more than last night did
And I love you guys to death, but, I just don't don't agree with you on this, and I also think it is near impossible to replace him for many reasons. And it saddens me you think it is reasonable.
I also think we need wait before we do anything drastic ( or the people that count should, I and no one here can control what happens next.
What a horrible day.
I hate to lose being here and listening to you guys but I have to think about my emotional health too.
I'm with you. I'm skipping today's pod. I'd be thinking bad things about people I've come to respect and truly care about. My Republican sister and brother-in-law were bending over backwards to be kind to me today. Finally, after dinner I told them, "I'm not saying another word about politics today." I thanked Al for always listening to me and never giving me a hard time. He said "Patty, when I disagree with you, you'll know it." So, there's that, at least. When we took the dishes in the kitchen my sister whispered in my ear, "I think Trump has been hanging out with Leland." Leland is a demon trying to bring the AntiChrist into the world in the dark comedy "Evil" on Paramount Plus. So, there are 2 more Republicans who won't be voting for Trump, at least.
I don't agree that President Biden needs to step down. He had a bad night in a debate. I've been watching them since I was 11 and someone always has a bad night. Many of them went on to win. The shame here is not on Joe Biden, but Donald Trump and the moderators. Most days I can't see how Trump can be beaten, but I thought that in 2020 too. Hopefully, in a few days I'll be able to come back here to listen to what JVL, Sarah, and Tim had to say tonight.
Yeah, I decided I would just let it sit there till things calm down and I am not so on edge.
I have avoided media today because I did not want to become alienated from those who are weakly affiliated with my Democratic party. That’s why I’m sitting here reading comments instead of directly consuming Bulwark content.
Thank you for your thoughtful comment. It mirrors my reactions, too.
You are more than welcome..I am thinking/hoping after a couple of days the emotions on both sides of the issue will calm down.
I think a few days from now, nothing will have changed. Just watch. That was the take of most of the focus groups last night. The race is a convicted felon liar who couldn't answer direct policy questions vs. an elderly man in decline who stutters but whose administration is capably running the nation. Shocker, we all knew that.
This was just a badly needed wakeup call to the campaign. We should be grateful they got it early. They need to get today's North Carolina Joe Biden out in public, and fast.
I agree with you. People should wait. Usually debates don’t effect much and as it has been so early in cycle much less people watched than in 2020. That was probably the plan of the Biden camp to check it out may be. He was apparently much more alive today at a rally and as a said elsewhere, the statistic advantage is on the incumbent even if he must be carried to the podium.
It also appears they are raking in money now too
And the all the suggested replacements have all said they are for Joe and they aren't going to challenge him
Interesting shout out of my Lehigh Valley Congressman Susan Wild, from Jonathan Martin.
If Biden can sound as energetic as angry Tim did in this podcast…maybe he still has a chance. Someone get Biden the cocaine he was allegedly on during the State of the Union.
We should be angry if not totally frustrated… Biden’s poll numbers in the swing states have not been good. So much was riding on this debate.
Sarah is spot on.
On difficult days like this, it's so valuable and meaningful to be able to spend some time in your company--the three of you--and watch you honestly and painfully work through these issues and your thoughts about them. It's helpful to hear smart and knowledgeable friends think through the hard things. Thank you for sharing the conversation with us.
Sadly, I think we should also be talking about what we can do to survive the next Trump administration.
There will be no surviving. Democracy as we have known it will cease to be.
If Bidens current rate of decline stays steady, in 4 years he will be calcified. Skeletons do not make good presidents. Come on. Dems! Wake up!
I would vote for Joe Biden over Trump if he was on life-support. They put up Trump! I would vote for my pet rock over Trump! And I’m sorry for criticizing other people, but if a swing voter is going to turn away from Biden over last night’s debate, when he obviously had a cold or something, and they are going to vote for Trump, they were going to vote for Trump anyway. Between now and November, they would find a half—-sed reason and do it. Honestly, it wouldn’t matter who the candidate was on the Democratic side, they would find a reason to do it. In other words, JVL is right, the people are the problem.
Trump had the worst 12 months in political history. He is still ahead.
Biden had the best 12 months (see above) in political history. . He is still behind.
.
Biden is the reason we are here. Not trump.
I’m begging you to stop being part of the problem and go back to being part of the solution. Trump supporters should really be on posters warning kids about drugs and inbreeding but you can’t take their loyalty away.
Biden's campaign people should haved prepped him to give short, concise answers. Is it mandatory to talk the entire two minutes? Keep it short and simple. Then when the moderator says you have another minute, say "What more needs to be said? The American people understand the stakes." I put some of this on his campaign. He doesn't do well when under the gun. I feel like his campaign has not adapted to the fact that this is no ordinary election.
With friends like you, who the hell needs enemies? I am truly saddened to learn how easy it is for you to abandon Joe Biden and call for him to step down b/c he had a bad night. To be clear, what you are effectively doing is jumping in line with major news outlets and causing unnecessary fear and I believed you were so much better than that. Help me understand, you believe that the best thing to do today was to cause further chaos and division in the Democratic Party? Nowhere in your minds did you think “shit the alternative is still that convicted felon, adjudicated rapist, the guy who incited an insurrection, who praises Putin and stood up there and lied repeatedly” maybe we should think about what’s really important AND THATS ALWAYS BEEN BEATING TRUMP?
I’m completely with you on every aspect of your comment. Are centrist Dems the only people capable of understanding that we are electing good people to run a TEAM of trustworthy people in the Executive branch?
This moment separates the weak-kneed, media-obsessed commentariat and electorate from those who know that not every speech, debate performance, decision or random moment in one’s life stands close scrutiny but that the sum of one’s character, good instincts and devotion to democracy should the criteria.
Right? I am astonished by what I’m hearing today, it’s terrible to know how easily we just toss people aside b/c of a bad night. Did Cheney and Kinzinger publicly call for Trump to resign when he made that awful speech about Charlottsvile? How about when he used violence against peaceful for a photo op? I maybe wrong, but I don’t recall a single Republican calling for him to step down. It took until Jan 6, when they themselves were in danger for them to stand against the man. Don’t get me wrong, my respect for both of them is immense, the point I’m trying to make is Republicans will defend Trump thru lies, racist speeches, dangerous rhetoric and the list goes on. Btw, all of those things are dangerous and it’s been proven over and over. Democrats, on the other hand, in a span of an hour and a half decided that Biden’s performance outweighed all his accomplishments over past 4 years. What I also think ppl are missing is the team around Biden vs the team around Trump. I’m from Newport Beach Ca and I adore Newsom, I would love to see him run one day…but if anyone believes we can switch out Biden for Newsom and win today, then we are screwed. If I were to make a meme about Democrats (and I am a Democrat) it would look like this.
Democrats: beams with pride as their show pony trots elegantly across the field.
Also Democrats: shoots pony dead for losing.
The slogan would be: it’s ok, there’s plenty more where that came from!
If granddad just drove the family car into a tree, with your kids strapped in the back seat, would you lament everyone trying to take his keys from him? After all, granddad was a great and hard working man, who always bought ice cream for all….
This isn’t about Joe Biden.
it’s about the very soul of America, and the reality of the existential threat it is under.
Dems are already showing stronger support than Biden in down ballot races.
The millstone around Biden’s neck just got much bigger, and I ask you how do you look at the first ten minutes of that debate and say “yeah, he’s good. That answers everyone’s concerns about his mental acuity”.
I’ll bite…we’ll swap out grandad for my 80 year old father for this scenario. My Dad drives daily, is getting a new car tomorrow in fact, has never been involved in a traffic collision or had a ticket. He still sails to Catalina and flew in from Oregon yesterday after a visit with my brother. I am 46, managed to find myself seriously injured in a terrible traffic accident while parked in my car in front of Rite Aid. My mistake that day was choosing to park my car where I did, now I’m more scared of parking than I am of driving. Anyways, what would I do if tomorrow my Dad ran into a tree with my kids in the back? I’d probably say “has that tree always been there”? and pray he doesn’t fly off the handle cause he loves his car. I know for a fact that his age would never cross my mind.
You’re right in saying this isn’t about Joe Biden (even if I think he’s been an excellent President) because it’s 100% about Donald Trump. The greatest gift Donald Trump and his team received after the debate came from Democrats. I’m still in shock that more people were looking at what Biden didn’t do and not what Trump did do. The very soul of America is at stake, but it’s got nothing to do with the first 10 min of the debate.
Oh man, phew! Thank you so much for your response, I barely slept last night because I was worried I may have offended you or came across as too irate to listen. I needed someone to take the temperature down, explain it to me absent anger otherwise I was incapable of hearing or understanding any of it. You my friend have achieved that, so thank you!
I appreciate everything you said, I am happy to report I now understand where you are coming from and respect it all. Another upside? I no longer fear that you and those who share your opinion, are Trump supporters. lol I had this irrational fear that this was a new tactic of MAGA, infiltrating message boards where Dems are talking and sowing doubt and causing chaos. The downside, I now see that I could fall victim to conspiracy theories and should add that to list of concerns for my upcoming Drs appt!! Lol
While I still disagree and believe he’s capable of this Candidacy, I know your concerns are more than valid. My inability to reduce his entire Presidency down to an hour and a half, isn’t only because it’s inconceivable to me, but b/c I’ve been watching him since the debate (closely during times w/o teleprompter) and I’ve just not seen the guy from the debate. I maybe hopeless and apologize for that, but this interaction with you has restored my faith in humanity.
I hope you see take this as a win, the way I do:)
Thanks again:)
Biden had one job last Thursday night.
To address the doubts over his mental acuity.
Biden asked for the debate.
Biden knew the stakes.
Biden's performance was a disaster.
I say that as an ardent supporter.
The attempt to gaslight Biden supporters and tell them is wasn't all that bad is an insult to the intelligence of any objective viewer.
Aging does result in decline.
It's a fact.
Again, this is 2016 all over again. Insisting on a flawed candidate and hoping for the best.
If you think this decision is torturous, wait to see what follows Trump's victory in November.
I’m wanting nothing more than a productive debate (no pun intended) with you and I’m sorry if I slide off topic or make it hard but my decision last month to try and handle ADHD unmediated for the first time ever, has proven very unsuccessful.
I don’t know, I’m finding it difficult to come to terms with your use of the phrase “gaslighting” as it pertains to what’s happening here. I can only speak for myself obviously, but the fact that someone has taken my support for Biden and managed to conclude it’s something more sinister, is so unnerving to me. Have we truly fallen so far as the human species that it’s no longer two people on the same side with opposing views? Seriously? Your comment feels very much like someone who’s trying to turn everything into “us vs them” and that new reality for me is terrifying.
I may struggle with things that I’m sure are apparent to anyone reading this, and maybe I am just too sensitive to even try and participate but I have no intention to deceive anyone by continuing to support Biden. It’s just too far of a leap for me to support him as strongly as I did on Wednesday and by Friday feel so enraged that I can’t even fathom him remaining the President for another second. To me that takes work, the only way I would personally reach that point, was if I went with pack mentality. If I were to abandon everything I thought of President Biden right before the debate, I still can’t imagine walking away with such fury and contempt for the man. The very idea, that in your mind “he had one job and failed” isn’t something I can get behind either my guy, he had a bad debate NOT A CONVICTED FELON.
Jen, thanks for your message.
I don't use the term "gaslighting" without reservation. But when loyalists insist that we should ignore what all America saw (and will see again and again until November) was not a man stumbling over one line. Nor was it just a case of one bad night.
It confirmed everything Trump supporters have been telling me for the past year.
He confirmed it.
To say otherwise is to adopt a Kim Jung Un cult like view of reality.
The fact Biden is on top of the ticket is just a symptom of an ailment the Dems have suffered from since 2008, the last time they held a leadership contest and not a coronation.
The Dems lost in 2016 because because as capable Hillary may be as a president, she was a lousy candidate.
Joe Bifen may be a very capable president, but he is clearly unable to perform the role of candidate.
We were stuck with Trump in 2016 because the Dems insisted it "was Hillary's turn", as if there was a set ranking of succession.
The role of candidate is a completely different job than that of president.
It shouldn't be, but America has chosen to have year's long campaigns instead of, say, 28 day ones like in the UK.
You can be a great president but you must be elected first.
Biden should never have chosen to run in 2024.
He will destroy his legacy, and very possibly the very democracy.
Loyalty to the man, Joe Biden, should never supersede loyalty to the common good.
He has a stutter and cold. He is not in cognitive decline.
There is no evidence that any other Dem polls higher against Trump than Joe or Kamala. And that is BEFORE the Republican Noise Machine goes to work on them or they are tested (Remember how DeSantis was going to be so awesome?)
There is simply no reason to believe that switching from Biden will up chances of winning (and a lot of reasons to think otherwise).
I have lost a lot of respect for all of you (and I have been a big fan). This moment calls for courage and moral clarity. Instead of losing it like a bunch of Betas, put your efforts into making the case to the American public that truth matters, Biden's accomplishments are very real and warts and all he is fighting for the America people want to live in.
After today's "comeback" speeches that Biden had, there's no way he's going to believe that he can't do it or anyone in his inner circle that will tell him he can't. We have him as our candidate, warts and possible sundowner issues and all. Everyone around him are going to have his back, front, and side to prop him up, at least for now. Am I totally happy about this reality, no. But, it is what it is what it is for now, so we're going to have to buck it up.
I am so sorry Tim had to stand next to the Fox people. These horrible people can laugh now, but if we lose democracy, their children and future generations will not be so lucky.
Thank you Tim for vocalizing my thoughts about Harris perfectly. Yeah she's got the "politician" vibes, but she lacks the perceived 'corruption' issues of Clinton, she's got the closest thing to a plug-and-play campaign around, and she's a self-evidently competent person who seems likely at this point to be able to cobble together more of Joe Biden's coalition than Joe Biden can.
(Sarah 's plan that is a great thing for a healthy democracy and party infrastructure that's functioning smoothly at every level, but if that were doable we wouldn't be here, but 100% glad she's adding it to the conversation).
She’s also a black woman of immigrant parents, and much as I like her and would vote for her, I don’t see her winning. At least not in the states that we need.
I go back and forth with the identity issues, here's my 2 cents:
1: Politics is the art of the possible, it is what it is, the stakes are too high.
2: If America would go for Trump over an identity issue like that, fuck everything
*shrugs*
We got Trump because of Obama. The American people elected a black guy for president and look who we got for the next person. Everybody can say Hillary Clinton this and Hillary Clinton that as much as you like, but she was just a Democrat that was Secretary of State for Obama. There are also some people in this country, and I’m related to them, that think a woman couldn’t possibly have the temperament or intelligence to be president. They are all looking at Trump while they’re saying it! Give me anybody that you all think would be better than the old white guy fighting the old white crazy guy, and I can poke a hole in all of them. If Trump wins again, it’s because America, by and large, is unintelligent.
I honestly don't know if you're right!
Looking at it from the Dem politics side though, I do think it's hard to get around Harris. Because if when it comes down to it, I think that if the reason for not nominating Harris is "we want votes from racist/sexist people," that'll fragment the shit out of the already-fragmenting Dem coalition. This genuinely might be a no-win scenario
Well, more people voted for Joe Biden than Hillary Clinton, and Kamala Harris was his VP pick, so I lean more toward sexism, particularly with the position of POTUS. HOWEVER…that ignores the fact that Trump in manifestly unfit for office, and voting for Biden over Trump should be a no-brainer. All I hear when people say Biden is too old is the subtext…which is that If he dies in office, we will have Kamala Harris for President. Now, I don’t care about that. I have said many times, in this forum, that I think she would do a great job as President…certainly a helluva lot better than Trump or any Republican. But my opinion is not what we need to worry about.
Then America will get what it deserves.
But you kowtow to racists in you analysis like this, you are just going to help us get there faster.
It’s not just racists. I would vote for Mayor Pete. I voted for Hillary…I would vote for my pet rock over any Republican. However, my vote doesn’t matter because my vote is locked in. The votes we are trying to lock in often belong to misogynists, homophobes, bigots and people who like their gas-guzzling trucks. And therein lies the problem.
You are telling black people, gays and others to sit down. The very same people who have stood most faithfully for the Democratic party. Not only is this immoral, it is stupid. (Why the hell would we keep showing up for EVERY ONE ELSE?)
Maybe work on fighting bigotry and prosecuting the case against MAGA
I thought we were, as Sara says, “In the business of beating Donald Trump”? You can’t go around Harris if you want to keep the Democratic coalition together in key states, and she can’t win against him. If you want to hand our country over to Trump, by all means, do whatever you want. I will vote for a tree stump over Trump…but again, it’s not my vote that matters…
You do not beat Trump by validating bigots.
You beat Trump by prosecuting the case for truth, the rule of law, and the results forcefully.
I am stunned by the moral blindness here: because
MAGA is mostly white and racist, blacks and others have to accept being tossed aside. All that does is discredit the Dems in the eyes of many of the people they need the most. It is simply a disgraceful, recipe for failure.
Again, my opinion really doesn’t matter. I’m not in Democratic leadership, and I’m going to vote for whoever they put up. However, this is an existential moment. And switching pitchers right now is not going look good in the eyes of the voters that we need to capture. We will never capture MAGA. NEVER. We need a few key voters in swing states to not turn away from us right now, and kicking Biden into the curb will never be a good look.
Seriously, wtf?
Exactly…that is what I say every time someone says Biden needs to quit on us, or we need to oust him. He already beat Trump once…if we force him out, or he pulls out over 1 bad night, we are handing the country over to MAGA, and we will get the government we deserve.
My dignity (and those of others) is not an acceptable price for a strategy that will only end in failure. Sorry you don't get that.
What about Biden‘s dignity? He already beat Trump once, and I believe he can do it again. He is doing a good job, a far and away better job than Trump ever did. The problem is Trump. I sincerely don’t believe anyone else in the Democratic Party today can beat Donald Trump. And all I care about is beating Donald Trump. I voted for Obama twice and he won. I voted for Hillary and she lost.
I am not the only person here who thinks Biden quitting would be a mistake. And as I said, my vote is guaranteed for any Democrat. What will you say if we do what you want and lose? Is that the result that you want? We oust Biden, we lose, and Trump continues to take the country down the tubes anyway?
My gut reaction at the end of the debate was “Save us, Gavin Newsom!” I have no doubts about Biden’s competence at the job, but that really looked bad. And that’s all the low-information undecided mushy middle voters will see.
And all they will see in Newsome is a progressive hippie that wants to take away their gas cars and their gas stoves. Californians may love him, and New Yorkers may love him, but no one else does. And if he wanted to get involved, he would’ve run against Joe. I can’t emphasize that enough. No one who’s a serious Democrat ran against Joe.
I agree with you. I think that it is too late to change candidates.
The primary battle is blowing apart the totality of the GOP, up and down the ticket, in as many states as possible. It's not just stopping Trump. Trump could croak tomorrow and the main battle is still the elimination of the GOP as a viable national party. Unless that happens there will be more aspiring autocrats protected by a corrupt SCOTUS. Biden had a very bad night, but one night is not the totality of this war. It's one battle in which Trump didn't do himself any favors either.
Let's not volunteer to roll ourselves under the Trump bus. If Biden pulls out it will be a major propaganda tool for Trump and his henchmen. I'm not willing to give them that tool.
I completely disagree with you guys about replacing Biden but I get that you're doing it out of love for the country. But wtf are you bringing jmart on for? He is everything wrong with the press.
Sarah absolutely sold me on Whitmer/Shapiro. Popular Dems in critical swing states? This is the way!
Absolutely the right call to release this from the paywall. A great conversation that demands to be heard. Tim's passion was incredible.
I'm firmly in the get a new candidate camp. The things Biden would need to do to fix this, like increase his exposure and possibly even do FoxNews hits, are things he cannot do without making things worse. He would get slaughtered if he showed up on Fox. He's not Gavin Newsom, not even close. I don't see how this gets better with Biden as the nominee, and as Sarah emphasizes, the whole ballgame is beating Trump. That's what all of this is about. And Biden can't do it.
Biden has to step down, period. There is just no way to unsee what we all witnessed in that disastrous debate. All Biden did was confirm what most voters have been saying all along, Biden is too old. Let's be honest, he should never have run in the first place. Most voters aren't policy wonks, they don't understand how the economy works, how government works, the role of the President. These voters were looking for confirmation last night that Biden wasn't your average 81 year old but Biden actually looked and sounded worse at times than his age. A younger person can survive a bad debate, Biden can't. If Biden truly cares about this country he will drop out of the race. Not only will he lose the election, down ballot races will be at risk, creating a worst possible case scenario.
I could not agree more - he needs to step down. There is something almost cruel about watching Biden go through this - borderline Elder Abuse. That's not who Democrats are - or should be. It calls into question the judgement of the entire party. Shapiro/ Whitmer can beat Trump. Start now.
I agree with an earlier poster - MAGA supports Trump NO MATTER WHAT. Biden’s gets doubt and second guesses at every turn. Last night was unnerving, but I am not jumping on the Biden needs to be replaced bandwagon with you. I am not convinced anyone else can better counter all the negativity and attacks directed at anyone (ANYONE - including those within the Republican Party) who criticizes Trump. See today’s VOX article about the debate - that sums up my concerns best. We have to figure that out or there is not a candidate out there that can win. Trump came right out and said he talked to Putin about Putins designs on Ukraine and that has largely gone unnoticed. Trump refuses to commit to accepting the results of the election and it gets lost in the “normalcy” of his many alarming statements.
I am concerned. I don’t disagree with any of the concerns about Biden. Although I do agree with Dan Pfeiffer - he is a very capable President but may not be up to the campaign. But if we rallied around this president with the fervor of MAGA (but without the cult like inability to admit disagreement and concern), we could have a very different story out there. My rage is, at this point that the threat to democracy is not front page NYT and WP news every day. Because everyday DT says something that could generate those headlines. I became a Bulwark plus subscriber at the same time I deleted my NYT and WP subscriptions. I am glad you guys do what you do. But I think Biden is our nominee and that is unlikely to change so I am committed to doing everything in my power to support him. I have been a life long Dem, but if Trump flipped, became a DEM and parroted ALL my favorite policies….I would have to vote republican. I hope more of the electorate can get clear about what a threat this is and that is where I want my energy to go.
After being thoroughly depressed last night and even more so after the podcast today… I realized nothing changed for me after last night. Biden had an abysmal night… truly awful. But Trump is still a felon and a danger to this democracy and to countries around the world.
As a ray of light, I’d suggest listening to Rick Wilson on The Lincoln Project’s Podcast today. The Elephant In The Room. Nothing like a Winston Churchill speech to focus the mind. As Sarah and Tim said, our job is to defeat Trump. As Rick Wilson said, don’t worry about what we can’t control and let Joe Biden and the Democratic Party make their decisions. We need to focus on our job, which is beating Trump.
Can’t say it better than he did… so I’ll post the part of the Churchill speech he read on his podcast. For what it’s worth… it lifted my spirits and refocused my efforts.
“I expect that the Battle of Britain is about to begin. Upon this battle depends the survival of Christian civilization. Upon it depends our own British life, and the long continuity of our institutions and our Empire. The whole fury and might of the enemy must very soon be turned on us. Hitler knows that he will have to break us in this Island or lose the war. If we can stand up to him, all Europe may be free and the life of the world may move forward into broad, sunlit uplands. But if we fail, then the whole world, including the United States, including all that we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of perverted science. Let us therefore brace ourselves to our duties, and so bear ourselves that, if the British Empire and its Commonwealth last for a thousand years, men will still say, “This was their finest hour.”
I am not sure how to state this. I don't, of course, know each of you. I have to say, the intensity and honesty with which you speak, though, means a lot to me. You express my worries with great passion. You are authentic, I believe that you believe what I believe and what many people believe -- relative to the future of our country being at stake. I know you have a business model and you need to make some money -- and I am sure each of you are doing quite well -- but I think that this is not just a "show." You are the real deal. A few of you almost seemed in tears mixed with righteous anger. Thank you,! I do donate to Sarah's PAC because I trust in her dedication to defeating Trump and know that she spends the money strategically. Please stay centered and don't forget about "us" as the Bulwark grows. John Mehrle
Thank you Sarah for defending the debate moderators. They are there to guide, not fact check. Unlike a forum or interview, it is the speaker's opponent who needs to hit back.
I don't see how Biden, or anyone else, could really do that effectively. Trump lies, Biden says "Trump is lying", Trump says "No, he's the liar", etc. Fact checking by the moderators would have been a real service to the American people.
In retrospect it was a mistake to do the debate. Bringing jmart on to spew bullshit is reprehensible though.
I think this was a good discussion, overall. I can see why there's a call for Biden to step aside. But what struck me most was the intense anger - that Biden must do this for the good of the country. Again, I don't quarrel with the sentiment, but the level of anger about it startles me. I haven't heard it in regard to an entire political party who has had opportunity after opportunity to do the right thing for the good of the country. How many times have we followed some of you through your hopes that this normie, or that normie, would, in the end, do what's best for the country, only to be disappointed.
How many times have we heard how we should welcome with open arms even those who come up short of endorsing Biden, without that same level of anger aimed in their direction?
I don't know what I'm trying to say here - I'm just struck by the oddity that so much anger is directed at Biden and the Democrats who "should" speak to him about stepping down, when I've never heard that same level before directed at your so-called normies....
I don’t think it’s all directed at Biden, but more the political professionals around him and the pundit/commentator types that have sought to quash or dismiss any questions about his ability to carry the ticket only to have it blow up in a high profile moment when the stakes couldn’t be higher. They’ll all still be there when it counts. I think people that care are all emotional today and we may just need to cut them some slack and assume good intentions.
I think the anger expressed by everyone everywhere today springs from the fact that they are terrified about what is to come.
Pod Save America is in a similar place to you.
Every political podcast I listened to came down in the same place...this one, PSA, Politix, Pantsuit Politics, Hacks on Tap. Total unanimity that Biden should drop out.
Also podcasts do not equal voters. My personal friendship circle do not listen to any of these.
But podcasts are not going to convince Biden in my humble opinion. What are your goals here - to vent - or to actually have an impact?
The Pod Bros were in an even more dire place.
Jesus it never stops with you guys! Nobody is taking Joe Biden’s place. That’s not happening. Get your heads out of your ass and let’s move forward.
“You guys”? The entire Dem world is assessing next steps after an objectively horrendous debate performance. If last night’s debate didn’t scare you, you’re not paying attention. Undecideds are the whole ballgame and last night was a dumpster fire on that front. Undecideds won’t be watching coverage of Biden’s rally speeches today. They saw a frail, old man. And it confirmed what they already feared. This isn’t a typical “bad first debate” problem. Biden just confirmed people’s worst fears. Changing their minds now is not impossible, but it will be incredibly difficult, and this was already going to be a scary close election. The fear is real, my friend.
Heather is 100% correct. Biden can't win unless he reassembles the coalition that elected him in 2020. His disastrous debate performance makes that impossible now. He cannot win. He needs to withdraw from the race for the good of the country.
Yeah, you guys! so much whining and bitching! Literally nothing has changed. Biden is running for president and we need to move forward.
I supported Biden in the 2020 primary, and I have rejected all calls for Biden to step aside since then. No chance there was anyone else who could step in and have a better shot to defeat Trump. But last night changed the calculus. I believe Biden is now certain to lose. And although a replacement could still lose, we have a fighting chance, and with democracy, our country and the global order on the line, I would take that chance.
https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/rev-al-question-after-last-night-is-not-what-will-happen-to-biden-but-what-will-happen-to-us-213874245667
The Rev is saying it the best of anyone today.
That really is perfectly put, thanks for sharing it
I believe President Biden has done a good job as President, I do not believe after last nights performance that he can win the election. President Biden must accept his failure last night and give up his bid for re-election. The Democrats must find a way forward that would win the election! Democrats must find a candidates, President and Vice-President that are strong and capable of winning and governing.
The ONLY candidate who can do that is Joseph Robinette Biden.
If the democrats circle the wagons around Biden (a candidate I supported until last night) they will be as guilty of bending the knee as the Republicans. And the anger this will generate in the Democratic Party will be significant and extremely harmful to down-ticket results.
Last night was rough and I agree with Bill Kristol’s thoughts this morning (something I never thought I’d write if you asked me in 2004), but if it really comes down to Biden v. Trump and you live in a swing state, I hope you’ll reconsider voting for Biden.
No evidence of that happening at all. Nice try, though.
The thought that anyone else can step into Biden’s role is utterly ridiculous. It’s also terrifying! All of you are reacting to a grass fire while a thousand acre wildfire is raging in the background. I’m old enough to remember some horrible first debate performances by candidates who won. CNN committed malpractice, trump didn’t help himself, and if the RNC can’t bring itself to ask any of the questions you all are asking, why would the DNC even whisper about replacing Biden? Over one debate, with a heinous liar? Pull up our socks and regroup. Don’t demand something that could backfire in earth shattering consequences.
Biden was NOT the only candidate who could have beaten Trump four years ago. He did manage to win, but it was close.
I think he was. Other candidates had enough baggage --and no money--to move forward.
All candidates had baggage. Any serious democratic candidate would have raised the money. Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker and Pete Buttigieg were compelling candidates. The "Biden is the only candidate who can beat Trump" worked well in 2020 to get Biden the nomination. All that being said, haven't seen a clear and realistic path to have things change. Biden will not drop out. And I think the arguments made by the press make him more likely to double down.
Welcome to the bowels of the blue team, guys! Strap in, strap on, and grab a vitamin water! We love the blacks but don't really want their government housing anywhere near my kid's school. Lots of cowardice, ego, and corruption over here, too.
Expecting a bitter, entitled, 82 y/o lifelong Senator to do what's best for the country when he has been attacked mercilessly by both sides is a pretty tall ask. Biden isn't going anywhere without IMMENSE pressure from the Dems. I mean it will take public calls from party high ups for him to even consider stepping down. The pressure has to overcome his shattered ego. I think both he and Trump probably regret running for president more than anything else.
Jeffries is viable.
But, really, can Kamala win? I am skeptical.
Can Biden win again? It's more of a question today.
You guys are freaking out. How hard can it be to be president? Trump did it. Concern is appointment to the high court.. Joe has done a good job and has a great cabinet.. he did sucked last night,
Except one has to be elected first.
Trump and Biden are scored differently, we can’t change that.
But by any measure, Biden was an “F” last night.
If he remains on the top of the ticket, we are all “F-ed.”
I thought Al Sharpton made the best case on this. He talked about the need to think about the country and the need to run the strongest candidate. I'm a bit disappointed in Joe Biden's statements on twitter. If Joe Biden hasn't, he should re-watch the debate.
Tim is 100% right about how bad Biden's performance was. Trump not only lied constantly in very clear ways, but throughout he left obvious lines of attack open for his opponent. As reasonably politically aware citizens, my wife and I were constantly shouting out retorts in real time which Biden could've used to effectively spar with Trump, pleading with him to get up off the mat, but he couldn't manage even the bare minimum response for most of the night. A subpar debate performance would've been fine, given the competition, but it was catastrophic. Biden had a few good moments later in the debate, but by that time the damage was done and most viewers had probably already seen all they could handle. I am happy to hear that Sarah's focus groups generally saw through Trump's dishonesty though, I did worry that the whole "spouting nonsense confidently" presentation would be all he needed.
Sarah is asking for a repeat of 2020 where all candidates stepped back for Biden. She makes a good case for an agreed to governor's ticket.
I agree with Tim about Kamala. Who are the people who are at most risk in a Trump presidency? Women and minorities and people who can even be confused with immigrants. She can speak to all of those people. She has done very well with her college campus tours. She is sharp and is sometimes a very good speaker/debater. I do not think it is worth the cost to try to "get around" her, and I don't think it's fair to the job she has done. I think we go with Kamala and one of the Midwestern governors as her VP. I am dubious two women on a ticket can succeed because this is America. Sadly.
I wouldn't say that Biden didn't land a single hit on Trump. He did, just one, but he did and I reacted with laughter it was so apt. It came out so naturally I have to wonder if that was the real Biden when he said that Trump had the morals of an alley cat. I wish he had done more of those.
I’m with Sarah. What about keeping Kamala and adding someone like Gretchen or Pete as her running mate? Also, the Republican Party should be doing the same thing! Considering a replacement for Trump. We’re here because they won’t!
Anyone with a memory should recall that Trump surprised everyone beating Hillary, I hate to use the term master with Trump, but he is a “master” of obfuscation, evasion, lying, deflection and general turpitude. I did not watch the debate because I sensed this coming. I was very leery about Democrats who were over-confident about Biden’s easily beating him. Democratic minions set Biden up for failing. Anyone who wants Biden to step aside is making an idiotic suggestion because who else is there in the Democratic wings who can unite the various groups in the Democratic tent? That said, Biden’s loss is not his loss alone, but the country’s loss, Americans’ loss. I don’t know what the answer is, unless there is a Democratic Knight in shining armor waiting in the wings who can unite everyone under the Democratic Big Tent.
I’ve got to think that Biden is haunted by his remaining son’s legal jeopardy. Hunter faces another trial and further Burisma investigation if Republicans gain control of both houses. He has lost other children and already almost lost Hunter to addiction. I think his worry is aging him and impacting him cognitively too.
Biden's family and close friends talking to him about stepping down is likely to go as well as the conversations families have with their elder family members about giving up driving.
People really want to just pay for Biden fluffing don’t they. Why get so mad in the comments section over reality being described for you?
There would have to be overwhelming evidence that Whitmer or Shapiro would be unquestionably better than Harris to by pass her. Despite Sarah being an expert she didn’t convince me, she seems to think it’s obvious to everyone and I don’t think it is.
To win the election, Democrats have to win WI, MI, PA and NE-2. They can lose GA, AZ, NV and ME-2, as long as that Blue Wall holds. I'm not sure what happens in Michigan if Shapiro is the nominee. But Whitmer probably carries all of those states and NE-2. She just won re-election in a contested Michigan 2 years ago.
Kamala hasn't won an election since 2016 in dark blue California. She struggled in the Democratic primary in 2020. She has been MIA as VP, which is par for the course.
I fully agree with Tim/JVL/Sarah on the need for Biden to be replaced. I must say that I have so much renewed respect for the humility and candor you've demonstrated by taking this position after all the hard work you've done to support the Biden effort. If Democratic leadership had an ounce of this kind of integrity and courage we wouldn't collectively be in the mess we're in right now. I'm impressed and inspired. Keep up the great work, you have my support!
I am so glad that I do not need to give a coherent opinion about what should happen now... I am so sad and angry that the whole story today is Joe Biden and not how completely awful Trump was. Another thing I've been thinking is has any of these folks saying that people just need to talk to Joe and get him to step aside had to do something similar in their life? For instance get an elderly parent to give up their car keys, essentially giving up their autonomy? It is very difficult for anyone even when faced with the facts to give up being an adult. Just saying that even for the good of the country, this would be very hard for Joe to do.
Agreed. After Thursday, I have a new element of concern, that he and his team are in a place of denial, and lack the introspection and humility that will be necessary to acknowledge when it is time to step down in a second term, and will his cabinet have the courage to invoke the 25th Amendment if needed? It seems that a big reason we are here is because it’s awkward and uncomfortable to convince Biden to pass the torch, and it won’t be any less awkward once he’s in his second term.
I understand all the opinions here. And I generally agree and thinking the same, I'm also worried. But just taking a step back, it does feel odd that we hedged ALL our bets on one debate performance. I know the stakes, this was a huge audience and Biden had to come out swinging and he failed to do that. But at the same time, I can't imagine anyone but Biden always having unrealistic stakes put on him while everyone else can screw up multiple times. However I am fearful what polls or groups will be saying in a couple weeks after this initial shock, but maybe it only moves a few points.
I'm also seeing a lot of f-you's to Trump, so we may be surprised what the results will be after some more dust settles.
I think the only way forward for Biden to stay in is to quickly do a few town halls and a lot of interviews. Speaking from a teleprompter at a rally won’t cut it.
If his advisors and family aren’t confident in having him do that, he needs to drop out.
Unfortunately, we can't afford a few points.
I generally agree. But there's 2-4 points and there's 5+ which is a lot harder to bounce from.
I agree with a lot of this, and I've been mulling over your point: I think the oddness of how catastrophic this feels comes from 1) just how catastrophically bad the performance 2) the realization of fears thing JVL talked about, because Biden's competence has been such an issue for so long the overwhelming evidence for it just lost a lot of whelm.
While my gut, like Tim's and Sarah's gut, says "go, go now, time's essential," I do think it makes sense to wait for polls and data. There is a legitimate possibility that this didn't matter like it feels it mattered, we're all just traumatized in multiple directions, and the race will stay where it is. But if the data comes, and it's directionally supporting the gut, then god I hope the Bidens do the patriotic thing.
(and fuck it, he can pardon Hunter on the way out)
I think we are all just in our own heads, but I don't know which way. 1) is this really the gut punch it feels like now and is there legitimate long term consequences. 2) or have we just assumed everything all the time would be awesome and this time wasn't but in a week it will just be a thing that happened.
The main thing I'm annoyed by is Trump can and does whatever with no consequences. And everyone else has to be perfect.
Speaking for myself and I think a lot of people, I'd thought it'd be okay. It's like...I dunno, like the floor is lava and we've just been focusing on stepping from one chair to another. And now it's like FUCK THE FLOOR IS LAVA AND I'M AVOIDING IT BY STEPPING ON CHAIRS!
And I go back and forth on the bit where Trump gets the pass on everything and Biden gets it on nothing: on the one hand it's objectively true, the unity around Trump versus the rounds of kvetching around Biden is infuriating. On the other hand, that debate wasn't just not perfect, it was just BAD. As a person and a politician, Biden IS better than Trump, and more is expected of him, and failing to meet them has enormous stakes. Sometimes unequal expectations are unfair, but legitimate. It's why states are held to more accountability than terrorists, why college professors plagarizing is worse than college students plagarizing, etc.
The real problem is the Republican Party, they enable and everyone else has to be the Bulwark (pun intended)
We didn’t *all* hedge our bets on last night.
Which way do you mean? That this was an accumulation of warning signs from Biden and this is the latest or that you weren't too concerned on the outcome last night?
I wasn’t and still am not concerned. Nobody is voting for Trump because Biden is old and stutters.
Ah. Just wanted to make sure I understood. I'm starting to lean that way nearly a day later it. For me, it was hard to watch and very disappointing. And I don't think he'll lose any voters he has. But i don't know about independents or some voters who might now stay home. I literally don't know. But maybe like we've normalized Trump being a complete unhinged lunatic, maybe normalizing Biden being old and stutters will help him. I just think it's silly right now to cry defeat after one singular event, that history has shown is meaningless.
I'm not even sure if it was a net lost for Trump. People were so traumatized by his administration, maybe seeing him front and center will remind them of those scandal a day years.
Trump proved last night that he can't tolerate criticism. He ignored children who need federal government policies in favour of attacking Biden over a slight. Captain Queeg reported for duty.
The only way to beating Trump is by goading him into going Queeg and doing something utterly stupid.
I was appalled that Biden, too, ignored the childred and returned the attack. But I think by then Biden had forgotten the question and was afraid of making himself look weaker still by asking CNN to repeat it.
Please listen to Sarah. She is right on the way forward.
I wonder if someone was bribed to put something in Biden's drink. All that talk about him being drugged was a tell?
I just want to give JVL, Tim, and Sarah some appreciation for bringing measured analysis to a challenging ~24 hours.
The worst of this is how absolutely God-awful Trump was—without even addressing his batshit crazy statements like JVL outlined in the Triad today.
This whole mess should be yet another “indictment” of Trump, yet here we are debating whether it’s Weekend at Bernie’s or Driving Miss Daisy.
The moderators, the New York Times…Jesus…I’m not quite sure America wants Trump like JVL says, but I sure as hell know the media does. The palace intrigue is worth the burning down of this country, I guess.
Thank you, though, to Kinzinger, the Next Level crew, and all the Bulwark folks who try to address this with humility, nuance, and solutions.
Thanks Carl. This means a lot.
The “civility” rules like cutting the mics worked for Trump because they were like bumper rails for his crazy.
The majority of voters—and nearly all undecideds—are not excited about the choice between Biden and Trump.
Democrats have an opportunity to move the dial with these voters by changing their candidate.
Biden withdrawing, an open convention, and the novelty and excitement will get eyeballs and draw voter interest.
The only reason to do this is that it gives Democrats a better chance to beat Trump. And after seeing Biden yesterday, it’s clear that there are many other candidates who will have a better chance.
To the people who point to Biden’s rally today, yes he was much much better. But he was reading from a teleprompter. Undecided voters were not watching. Unless something changes, the election is over.
The last sentence is correct, but not for the reason you think. Unless something changes, Biden will defeat Trump. An open convention would be the worst thing the Democrats could do.
Sorry, what am I missing? How is Biden on a course to win? He's down in the polls. He's trailing Democratic Senate candidates in all of those states. And he just demonstrated on national television that he doesn't have his fastball any more.
Also, why is an open convention the worst thing? The historic nature and novelty would garner interest and ratings during the summer doldrums. I think minority and women voters who would normally be upset about passing over Kamala would suck it up and vote for Gavin, Gretchen, or Josh. We all know what a threat to the country, the economy, and the world order another Trump presidency would be.
An open convention lets Trump define the race. There’s a reason that the only person to win when an incumbent was eligible and willing to run is James Buchanan.
Biden still has his fastball. Last night changed nothing.
I agree that an open convention takes the attention away from Trump, and what prevailed in 2020 was the revulsion people had for Trump. But an able Democratic nominee would be able to make the case for the turnaround led by a Democratic administration and attack Trump for the degenerate he is. And the candidate would remove any concern over being of sound mind and body. Everyone who has lost a parent knows that decline accelerates at an advanced age. It will not get better.
There should be no concern whatsoever that Biden is of sound mind and body. He is; full stop.
If he leaves, the race is over and Trump has won.
What do you make of Biden’s stronger presentation this morning in NC? I think you all should have a conversation with Christopher Bouzy. https://spoutible.com/cbouzy
Scripted speech before bedtime
People have to stop being so reductive. I’d like to see any of these smartass spectators keep Biden’s presidential schedule for one day.
what are you talking about?
People often reduce Biden to just some sleepy old man, but he maintains a busier travel and meeting schedule than most people could endure. Let’s give him a chance to regain voters’ confidence.
Really? It is difficult to imagine a Democratic presidential nominee that has had a less challenging schedule than Biden, and Biden can no longer blame the pandemic.
Joe Biden can look decent in a canned speech (see, State of the Union). But he is getting very slow on his feet that makes debates (or any Q & A) a problem. Anyone who thinks the second debate will be much better is being pollyannish.
Ok fine, but aren’t the majority of presidential speeches scripted? I’d rather have a president who’s reciting (and believing in) Jon Meacham’s inspirations rather than Stephen Miller’s dark visions.
You are preaching to the choir.
Canada watched. It was really bad. he looked totally at sea and my heart broke . I am very much looking forward to what happens next. if this doesn't get the powers that be working with open eyes, I don't know what will.
Poor Tim. Man, tough love for us Dems. Starting to sound like we need to stage an intervention for Joe. There was a time when Barry Goldwater and other Republican lights went to Richard Nixon and made him see that he should throw in the towel. Maybe Obama and Clinton should perform the same service for Biden. Biden’s 81, and even non-aged people feel like heck with a cold and can barely function. That could’ve been the problem last night. There’s yet another debate to roll some more dice on. Joe Biden has served us well, gotten this country through some horrendously perilous times. Maybe it’s time for him, for the good of the country, for his ego to relinquish this crushing burden and hand it over to another. Keeping the criminal, narcissistic, sociopathic aspiring autocrat out of the White House is Job One.
Wow. A lot of glass jaws on Bulwark.com today. One bad night, of a two year campaign, and instantly we must change horses or I’m sitting this one out. Just a reminder, sitting it out is the same as voting for the rapist-liar-sneaker salesman. Luckily, for American democracy, this election cycle is a simple math problem. Just 80,000 people, out of 150 million voters, in four states, will determine the next president. The glass jawed, hand wringing, horse jumpers in all the other states (Texas, New York, California, Florida, etc. etc. etc.) are just going to be observers of the real show. The President has four months to find those 80,000 people and convince them that last night was a fluke. I was at the rally in NC today. I think he will succeed.
Who has said that if Biden is the nominee they will sit out the election? All three of us said exactly the opposite of that on the show.
About 10% of all commenters today. I think of them as “the children.”
I imagine they’ll pull themselves together by election time.
Not speaking about the hosts of this podcast. Scroll through the comments from morning shots.
With respect: there’s a thousand comments on morning shots and close to that many on the triad! I try to keep up with the comments but it’s an avalanche today.
This is worse than RBG hanging on too long in magnitudes. And with a unleashed Trump and this Supreme Court the damage will be far ranging and generational.
I'll vote for Biden even if he's going to reprise A weekend at Bernie's, but this is a extinction level event. Mr Biden performed a great service and stabilized the country and was a fine president but there's one last duty for him to perform.
The RBG analogy is painfully fitting. Obama at least tried to encourage her to recognize her own mortality. The results of her hubris has impacted millions of Americans since.
Biden’s own hubris may well end the American experiment. It’s not about Biden.
It’s about America.
If he doesn’t drop out, which appears to be his decision, his legacy will be destroyed and he will pilloried by historians.
We are at a crossroads.
As usual, you guys are spot on.
Dated June 27, The Economist runs a guest editorial by invitation to Joe Lonsdale co-founded Palantir and is the managing partner at 8VC, a venture-capital firm. The sub-heading reads, "The Biden administration has played dirty and shown staggering incompetence, argues Joe Lonsdale" What the hell is Lonsdale talking about?
Biden needs to show courage and step down. Democrats need to show courage and select a new face for the next generation.
It's time for a unity ticket. Newsome, Pete, Big Gretch, whoever on top, Liz, or Kinzinger, or even fucking Brian Kemp in the Veep slot. We're in full five-alarm fire territory. We need to act like it
Kemp is going to vote for trump.
Liz and Kinzinger are Republicans--it's just dumb to act like that is a serious proposal.
That’s why it’s called a UNITY ticket.
Kinzinger endorsed Biden.
Yes but no one should be suggesting he replaces Biden or Harris on the Dem ticket.
I don't care they're Republicans. I care they're dedicated to the Republic. And it might be the only thing that guarantees we pull along everyone we need to. You think I like that this is where we are? Hell no. But it's what's needed
The liberals whose vote you need to avoid Trump care very much indeed.
If those liberals care more about the country than their short-term goals, they'd see the wisdom in it. Country over party
conservatives clearly don't care more about their country than their short and long term goals; but you expect liberals to step aside b/c conservatives are too cowardly to stand up to the man
Country over party, so the exact same Supreme Court justices Trump would name. Country over party, so essentially the same Cabinet. Country over party, until the next election when Trump is back and we get to have more Republican politics because the alternative is Republican politics.
What you are requesting is the Charlie Crist maneuver. Did you note how well he did against DeSantis?
It's a Democratic ticket for the Democratic party. If they want to help, and they seem to be, great, but to put them on ticket isn't unity in any shape or form. Their voting records are atrocious, voted against everything.
Biden and Harris are dedicated to the republic and a whole lot more.
Tim & Sarah are 100% right. This isn't about Joe Biden, it's about the country. Pass the torch instead of setting your legacy on fire with it Joe.
Sometimes I’m reminded that Sarah and Tim are Republicans who would return to a sane party should one emerge in the future. They want to rid their party of Trump and MAGA, which is a worthy goal, but they’re not Democrats doing the calculus of how to win this next election. I keep coming back to what I think of Biden: a decent man who understands loss and heartache, a career politician who has served his country with honor, and a good President that I’m glad I voted for. Last night ended with two old men arguing about their golf games. It was an embarrassment, but Trump’s lies will be tomorrow’s sound clips. Do what you can to help Dems win, if that’s your affiliation: contribute to campaigns, remind friends and family of Biden’s accomplishments, help other people get to the polls on Election Day. Remember that many you’re reading on Substack and in the media are paid to write and benefit from a churned up and terrified bunch of anti-Trump voters. Staying the course is really the only option, for many reasons, but I’m staying the course because Biden is a fine president who had a bad night. I’ve had plenty of em too.
I’m with you Sherri and your thoughtful post underscores the balanced compassion needed for the moment.
I disagree Sherri. They are pro-democracy doing the calculation of how to beat Trump. Of course Biden is a decent man. All Bulwark writers have said as much. Can Biden beat Trump? Being a fine president isn't enough.
Bulwark writers are doing their calculations in a reality that does not exist. PsiOp.
He must be a strong candidate as well! Dark Brandon emerging! Keep the faith!
Passing the torch would set his legacy on fire.
I beg to differ.
The debate last night showed that neither Trump nor Biden should be president. We have known Trump is unfit to be president and many persons who worked in Trump's administration have said that Trump is unfit to be president (although some will still vote for him). Biden has been an effective president (listen to Tim's podcast with Stuart Stevens) but last night showed that Biden no longer has the vigor and capabilities to serve four more years. I hope that President Biden makes an honest assessment of his capabilities to campaign, etc.
Biden needs to get out. NOW. Give a speech about how much he loves the country and how he realized that he's not up to another 4 years. Put the country ahead of his own ego. I know that he once believed only he could beat Trump, but he cannot do it now. He just can't. And the stakes are too high for him to try.
They need to put in Shapiro, Whitmer or Newsom yesterday. Kamala needs to step aside too. Now is the time for serious people in a smoke-filled back room to do their job. We need a strong party now more than ever.
I’m not going to listen to this because we don’t shiv a great QB in the third quarter because he misses a pass. Watch today’s NC rally, unclutch your pearls, and when the immunity decision comes out on Monday we can all focus on the new shiny thing.
Tim’s show with JMart was outstanding. I know Tim has the sads but he took an approach around forward movement rather than choosing to one-up “No Exit.” I really appreciate that. He’s just so good.
No need to listen but this analogy only works if we were winning in the 3rd quarter. We are losing and then he threw a catastrophic interception. So in that situation…yeah sometime the coach makes a change
Please make it make sense Tim. Half of this Country truly believes that Trump is being persecuted for being President, they don’t believe a single indictment is valid and Jan 6 was a day like any other. They are hopeless and are the only reason we should rethink the idea of asylums. We also know people are creatures of habit and would prefer someone they know (cause let’s not forget they aren’t paying to anything atm) to someone they don’t, and they aren’t even tuned into Trump and his BS yet. So to actually win this game, it’s your belief that we switch out a man whose had a great 4 years (over one night) and pluck out a random Democrat (to the majority of Americans, the Democrat you choose will be no one to them) and in your heart believe it’s how we win the game? Make.it.make.sense.
Agreed. If the game was tied and the QB just threw an interception, you’d be incompetent as a coach if you didn’t at least CONSIDER bringing in your backup. It’s not an obvious decision that pulling him increases our odds of beating Trump, but it would be irresponsible to dismiss the idea without considering it.
Nick Saban benched the QB who got Alabama to the national championship game. Because it wasn’t about Jalen Hurts or Tua Tagavailoa. It was about Alabama beating Georgia.
Why the blind loyalty to Biden? I will vote for whoever the nominee is. So will all Bulwark members. But we only win the election if the undecideds can be convinced, and we need a better QB to do the job.
Exactly right. I want to unpack that a bit…
None of us in this chat are in danger of switching our votes or staying home. We can debate among ourselves about the best course of action but we’re all committed to Team Democracy. Tomato Can and all that.
The panic we feel this weekend is about how what we imagine the impressions of undecided voters to be. Because they - or, more accurately, a few hundred thousand of them in about 5 specific states and 2 districts - will decide this election.
And on a fundamental level, speaking only for myself, I don’t understand how those people think. I can’t understand how anyone could look at Trump and be undecided about the proposition that he offers. Because to me he is a totalizing figure. You either want the autocrat or you don’t.
So at every turn, I am at pains to guess about how they will react to any piece of news and how it might impact their votes. And the debate on Thursday was an acute moment of such. Painful as it was, my vote doesn’t change. But wondering how Deb and Rick in Lansing, MI received it is the source of my most urgent concern.
So getting as much reliable data as possible to help give us insight into how undecided voters processed the debate, that should probably be the foundation of our (productive, open, democratic) debate on the question of whether or not it would be best to make such a radical intervention as an open convention.
Oops, Newsom came out with a fierce endorsement of Biden an hour ago and said people wanting to dump him are bad.
🤷🏼♀️
“Besides he’s had a great presidency?”
That’s more than enough for me.
Additionally, Trump lost voters last night. He was awful. There are people who watched that last night who said, “Oh yeah, I hate this f*cker.” In instant polls he dropped like a stone with his abortion, Jan 6, and “free and fair election” responses. I guarantee you that last night was his best and it was like an abattoir. Because he’s a psycho liar.
Let’s wait a week to see if last night moved the needle with swing voters. I watched his rally. My bet is everybody will be so hopped up on Monday’s immunity ruling that this conversation will have receded considerably.
I’m a Democrat, not an NT. My loyalty is to Democratic presidents.
There’s nobody in the alleged “bench” who has been vetted and has national name recognition except Pete and he’s occupied.
If POTUS ever steps away from the race I’d throw my support and money and love and energy behind Candidate X but only Biden can beat Trump. They poll even head to head in binary polls. The VP is out of the question. We can’t get a white woman elected here. Misogyny and racism won’t allow the VP to win.
So that’s why.
Having had a great presidency is not enough. If it were, Biden would be destroying Trump in the polls. But he is losing. To turn the tide, we need to persuade undecided voters that it's been a great presidency and that Trump is not an option, but Biden doesn't have what it takes to do that any more.
Gavin Newsom has been auditioning for the past 3 years, and he's been very good. Gretchen Whitmer is governor of a state Democrats must win, and she will likely have appeal in nearby states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Or Josh Shapiro if we can't get a qualified woman without baggage elected.
And Whitmer has 12% name recognition and Shapiro is Jewish. You think a Jew is getting elected right now?
And I’m a Jew, so you don’t need to be offended on his behalf.
There is no way that Newsom would not step up if Biden agreed to step aside.
Whitmer won Michigan. Michigan is between Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If the Democrat wins those 3 states and Nebraska 2, then Trump is defeated forever.
Newsom isn’t stupid. He knows that would be a political death sentence for him.
“Blind” feels…pejorative.
After witnessing the debate, what is the argument for Biden besides he’s had a great presidency? Because that great presidency has not convinced voters, if the polls are to be believed. This is going to require persuasion, and Biden is not capable of doing that.
Except dude’s also the coach.
You are so good. You just make my day.
His speech in North Carolina today was really good. One speech won't fix the debate performance but many high energy coherent speeches could.
Not being glib, but that is like saying grandpa smashed his car into a school bus yesterday but did fine on the riding mower this morning cutting the lawn, so it’s all good.
Last night was the biggest gift MAGA could have hoped for.
It confirmed every doubt about Biden’s fitness for office.
To state otherwise is just wilful blindness.
I agree with you. My comment was sarcasm but may not have come across like that. Reading from a teleprompter is a low low bar. Most people can read.
I guess he can still give a strong speech reading from a teleprompter. That’s good to know at least.
If the idea is not Biden then it has to be as close t a shoe in as possible for who replaces him in order to beat Trump.
Right now I have one name that I can think of. Liz Cheney.
On the caveat that Biden Cheney and many others have to put country first. And mostly Cheney.
I’m a lifelong Dem. Last night, the first name that came to mind was Liz. I disagree with her on literally everything but one thing. But that one thing is, right now, the only thing. What I love about The Bulwark is my deep belief that this if we can make it through this existential crisis, maybe we come out stronger on the other side, having spent all this time forming a coalition with people we used to see as our enemies. As a deep blue Dem, I would still (of course) vote for her over Trump. We can’t sit here and say “country over party” and then say “well, only if we get progressive policies.” Country first. That said… never gonna’ happen.
Probably not. But thanks. You said better what I was thinking
Liz Cheney as a Democratic candidate...? What have you been smoking?
"Right now I have one name that I can think of. Liz Cheney."
I can think of no better way to convince the millions of Progressives whose vote we will absolutely need that it's pointless to vote than to name someone who agrees with Trump on 97% of policy.
Liz Cheney would pull McGovern numbers.
I realize it's nuts, and sent while running. And I love Biden, and am a life-long Democrat. If someone presents a plan to me that I think is more likely to win than Biden--not to do better, but to win--I'm all in.
But right now, my focus is on defeating Trump and Trumpism. In addition, I think there is a party realignment occurring, and there are already a lot of Progressives barely holding on to Biden, or moving on. For what would be lost many would be gained.
Cheney would need to make meaningful and believable policy and governing concessions. She would do this in order to 1) defeat Trump and Trumpism and 2) get the top job. 2028 is promised to no one.
I know it's pretty 'west wing'. But if we're facing an existential threat then we're facing an existential threat. And it ain't policy.
If we're going to have to convince people to jump anyway, Harris is a better option. And has the virtue of not being hated as a traitor by half of the electorate.
A Republican is not going to replace a Dem on the ballot.
Folks, I am astonished at the total abandonment of Joe Biden because of the debate. Meanwhile Trump supporters and GOP never waver from supporting him no matter how dishonest and vile he behaves everyday. Joe can and will be elected our next President. All of the fear mongering by pundits and ‘supporters’ is not helping. I am writing 200 postcards for each of the swing states. I suggest you get busy saving our Democracy by supporting Joe Biden through action instead of surrender!
I disagree. I love Joe Biden and he has done a great job, but he needs to face reality and give it up now.
This is not fear mongering. This is risk analysis. Do you know the difference?
Yes I believe I do. Appreciate your feedback.
I think what you’re observing is that Biden is a means to an end, rather than the end in and of it’s self. The end (from my perspective) is beating Trump, relegating the worst elements of MAGA back to the fringes, and preserving the Constitutional order.
Against that backdrop, the question of staying the course with Biden or switching candidates becomes purely tactical. What gives us the best chance to achieve those strategic goals? If the outcome is stay the course, then people will rally, but after last night there are legitimate questions about whether that’s the right path.
Thanks for the work with the postcards. Keep at it. I’ll join you in all the efforts if it comes to keeping Biden.
Thank you Will for your thoughtful reply! 🦄
Yes, props to you for postcard writing!
The GOP never wavers because IT IS A CULT, their loyalty is to one man. My loyalty is to the survival of America as a democracy.
Yay Linda! I'm with you.
45% of the voters would support Biden even if he fell asleep at the podium last night.
45% of the voters would support Trump if he gave a n@zi salute.
That doesn't mean the debate doesn't matter.
The 10% in play will only catch the highlights.... and the highlights were Biden stumbling over his own points.
To the point of incoherency.
Biden dropped the ball.
Big time.
It was a disaster.
He can't walk this one off.
But the highlights are the Supercuts shown later manipulated by each camp anyways. They usually do not come with the energy and emotions people watching live experienced. If the Biden campaign makes an ad of his speech today and fills the airways the disaster will be forgotten rather soon. So let’s give the undecided some credit that they are not that easily moved. As focus groups showed many made their mind up to not vote for Mr 45 and his performance was not any better to convince any one who is undecided. So both did not win the undecided at this point. And the race has still ways to go and usually fits the incumbent.
They’d manufacture even more than the ones they already had. Nobody actually believes that 💩 any more unless they are MAGA
Trump dropped so far in instant polls when he lied about Jan 6th, abortion and whether he’d accept election results I’m surprised he doesn’t have a concussion.
And he “walked it off” in NC this morning.
He can and probably already has.
I beg to differ.
With what, exactly?
‘He can’t walk this one off’ I disagree. Biden raised 27 million since the debate. It seems he is walking this one off.
Does Biden having a better performance in a post-debate rally last night and then even stronger today mitigate against this at all? I am in no way trying to downplay, minimize, or waive away the terrible performance at the debate, but how much of it is a one-off and people who are way too deep into things over-reacting and then herd-mentality conventional wisdom setting in.
I ask, in part, because among the limited reaction among alleged "undecideds" or "swing voters" I've seen--a Univision group of Latino voters and a Frank Luntz focus group--Biden came out ahead among them, or perhaps more accurately that Trump was a bigger loser. And this mirrors my own experience with a group of friends on a text thread. Like the friend texts Tim references from time to time, these are not political obsessives or deeply engaged voters, and among the half dozen of my friends on the thread, the consensus was that it was a horrible overall debate, but this did not effect who they were thinking of voting for (I suspect 1-2 are Trump sympathetic at the least), but did make them even less enthusiastic about voting overall. Mind you, they weren't exactly chomping at the bit to vote for either in the first place.
Overall, I don't wonder if the debate has an impact that is net-net favorable for Trump and noticeable but also negligible that is forgotten in 2-3 weeks. I think tough conversations need to be had, but the catastrophizing among the professional take-havers of the punditry and the political obsessives (and I include anyone who is a Bulwarker in this category) is over-wrought.
Harris/Obama 2024. Just sayin'.
Assuming you mean Michelle, not an insane idea, but she is on the record not getting into politics.
Not Michelle, Barack. He can run for VP.
No the VP has to meet the same qualifications for office as P. Obama is not eligible to be serve as president anymore as he served two full terms.
I keep seeing (from reputable outlets) that it's not 100% clear, even with the 12th amendment. That's why I threw it out there. Even if not, it's giving this old woman a threat of hope this dark day post debate.
Thread*, not threat. Ugh.
Too bad there are so many racists and misogynists among us for that to be a realistic ticket. Brilliant, competent people both.
I'm eternally optimistic - and recall that same thing being said when Obama ran for his 1st term. Besides, it would *really* tick off the MAGAs if they win. 😉
If pushing against Trump were “so easy”, the GOP wouldn’t have totally caved to that guy.