The polling isn't there yet, but Biden is delivering on the job, MAGA is extreme and dangerous, the GOP is a dumpster fire, and Trump is the ugliest political figure in our lifetimes.
Someone please put Simon's 6-point summary of Trump's depravity in ads on FOX. Stop trying to convince voters the economy is as good as it is. Change the message. Roll up the sleeves & attack Trump w/his own despicable truths. Air ads showing all the elected Republicans who have pivoted pathetically to prop up Trump just to save their own political career.
Great reader comment in NYT that illustrates the circular arguments of MAGAs; and how it doesn't matter how positive the facts are b/c there's no getting thru to them:
"My next door neighbor is a Trump supporter. I love her, so we talk politics as friends; not an easy task these days.
Typically, she becomes intensly upset when parroting something the Donald has said. Repeating those MAGA sound bites turns this fine woman into a raving bundle of red-faced anger.
The other day, she loudly erupted with the usual -- "CNN lies! It lies all the time". I happen to know that she doesn't have cable TV, so I asked her how she knows that they lie.
Me:
"How often do you watch CNN ?"
Her:
I've never seen CNN; Never watched any of their programs. Why would I since all they do is LIE.
There you have it!! The inalterable power of MAGA.
Julia, this terrific organization also has volunteer opportunities to personally assist people to make appointments to get missing ID documents and they help pay for transportation to appointments and for the documents. They will train volunteers and ask for a 3-hour/week commitment.
I’ve loved this!! Third time I’ve listened to it. 🤗
A question I have long had. I haven’t been as involved with politics as you Bulwark folks have been. But, my observation has been that the economy swings in this way:
A Republican president comes in as the economy is really taking off — and by the time they leave the economy is in the tank. The Democrat comes in and, with a lot of work, returns the economy to health - which a Republican president inherits. Then trashes. Then the Dem comes in and again slowly and laboriously returns the economy to health. While the Republicans peacock around about how great the economy was while they were in office. Meaning the good economy they inherited and then trashed. Handing a horrible economy to the Dems - to slowly and laboriously rebuild. Think Clinton to Bush. Then Bush to Obama. Then Obama to Trump. And now Trump to Biden. The economy Trump is so proud of he inherited from Obama. Then he trashed it. And Biden has been slowly putting it right …
Hard work to build. Easy to destroy. Messes with the optics of who’s to blame.
No, you're not wrong. This is one of those things that makes me crazy b/c history shows that the economy does better under Dems - but almost everyone believes the opposite. Do you remember that Clinton eliminated the national debt?
Furthermore, to quote Heather Cox Richardson: "For forty years, between 1981, when Republican Ronald Reagan took office, and 2021, when Democrat Joe Biden did, the Republicans operated under the theory that the best way to run the country was for the government to stay out of the way of market forces... But the system never worked as promised... The result was that as much as $50 trillion moved upward from the bottom 90% of Americans to the top 1%.
I did know that (Clinton's wiping out the debt). Though it is not top of mind. Why is that?? (Thanks for the reminder!!!)
If only we would brag more and they would lie less . . .
Love Heather Cox Richardson. Have read nearly every one of her letters for YEARS. Such a depth of knowledge. She quotes pieces from the Bulwark from time to time. : ) And I always always learn something from her.
Very good episode as always. But I am not encouraged by Simon's take on things. If the higher ups in Biden's reelection campaign are quietly confident in his chances, they shouldn't be. Biden needs to get the border under control NOW. This issue is going to re-elect Trump if Biden doesn't get his head out of you know where and deal with it. He needs to clamp down on the border and forget about the pearl clutching on the left. And why has Biden's team not reached out to Chris Christie, Mitt Romney, and Mike Pence? Even Nikki Haley? It is going to take every single vote possible to win this thing in November. What if it comes down to 300 votes in Wisconsin or 1000 votes in Pennsylvania? It's possible. I feel like Biden and is team are living in dreamland right now where they think they actually are favored to win. They aren't running as if they are behind, which they are. They need to smarten up fast unless they want that orange nightmare back in the whitehouse in 2025.
Interesting podcast, Simon Rosenberg is a veteran Democratic campaign consultant and Tim Miller also has campaign experience as a Republican consultant, Tim was able to push Simon to speak to areas, where Simon had data and results to share to make his case. It was very well done!
Great closing message about progress taking time in response to the mailbag Q Tim, it's a great point for talking to progs unhappy with Biden, and I'd say it applies specifically to the Gaza situation in the current climate.
I *love* Simon's 6-point messaging plan around the 11:30 mark on why Trump can't be elected, and it made me think "yes, this is great messaging, but how do we get people to hear it?" I think maybe we need to take that message to Republicans at large to entice them to stay home and sit out the election (we won't get them to vote for Biden), not just through the conventional messaging pipelines, but like, buy ad space on the popular right wing podcasts like Joe Rogan and Bannon's "War Room" and also on the TV networks like prime time Fox News and Newsmax. It can't just be putting this message out in between commercials on MSNBC/PBS/NBC/ABC and NPR radio to stimulate pro-Biden/anti-Trump turnout. It's gotta go out on the hard right radio/TV waves as well at times that these folks will be tuned in. Again, we're not getting these people to vote for Biden, we're trying to get conservatives and conservative-curious--men in particular--to sit out the election rather than voting for Trump. Ask them:
"If Joe Biden loses the next election and tries to send a mob to the capitol to prevent Trump from being certified as the winner, would you consider that justifiable? If not, then why is it okay that Trump did it?"
"If Joe Biden had put his fingers into your daughter or wife at a department store without her consent would you consider that okay? If not, then why is it okay that Trump did it?"
"If Biden personally paid a media outlet to suppress negative stories about him while amplifying fake stories about his political opponents, would that be okay with you? If not, then why is it okay that Trump did it?"
"If Hunter Biden took in $2B from a single foreign government into his investment fund that he personally profits after capitalizing off of his father's presidency that he personally worked inside of, would that be okay with you? If not, why is it okay that Jared Kushner did it?"
Messaging like this on all those six points (ending Roe, TS docs retention, financial fraud ruling not mentioned above). If it even moves the needle on the margins in getting some conservatives to sit out the Trump vote or write in Nikki Haley or something like that then that's a big deal in a national election that's going to come down to slim margins in about 4-6 states.
I had the exact thought while listening to Simon's succinct, 6-point summary of Trump's despicable acts. I want to see those points in ads on FOX. They won't convince the mindless MAGA fanatics, BUT... those "swivel-eyed loons" have wives, husbands & kids, who likely nod silently at the psycho's rants while quietly questioning their own political position. So many Republican women STILL vote for whomever their husband picks. Smart, sharp, biting ads on FOX skewering Trump on abortion, racism & depravity could finally start changing that.
It's getting late for "polling not to be there." Hopium is turning into copium. Sorry to delve into that unfortunate lexicon, but Trump is winning, folks. Rising gas prices, slowing GDP growth, campus protests and more carnage overseas are not going to move the needle in Biden's favor.
At this point, if I'm Biden and the Dems, I offer R's whatever they want on immigration and possibly even some spending cuts in exchange for Insurrection Act reform. Praying that the hurricane doesn't come isn't a substitute for boarding up your windows.
Correct. Until we get into like August--at the earliest--these polls are not showing hardened sentiments. And when you consider margins of error and how polling results typically overlap both sides of that margin as elections get closer and closer, they tell us very little. See the 2020 and 2022 polling cycles as evidence of this.
Simon! Where have you been all my life??!! I love how you think and reason and use data and past experience to strategize. So smart. This was a very compelling podcast and I'm so grateful that I know who you are now so I can hear your viewpoints and keep the positive attitude along with you. I am especially heartened by what you said about voters perceptions of the economy in their own swing states. I live in Michigan in the Detroit area. At least here where I live it cannot be overstated how big of an influence Gretchen Whitmer, Dana Nessell and Jocelyn Benson have had. I like to think that it's not just in the Detroit area. Thanks Tim for the excellent song choice. Loved it. Also? Can you guys please come to Detroit after Philly and DC??
Good, thorough information from Simon. Hope he is back in the fall, to pull in some that may still be on the fence! In the mean time we all need to try and talk up how well the country is doing. One sample of the economy is doing very well…Friday evening in Fresno, CA, overcast, 20-some families standing in line for ice cream treats at Cold Stone Creamery. Family of 4 spends $40-$50 for dessert.
Someone please put Simon's 6-point summary of Trump's depravity in ads on FOX. Stop trying to convince voters the economy is as good as it is. Change the message. Roll up the sleeves & attack Trump w/his own despicable truths. Air ads showing all the elected Republicans who have pivoted pathetically to prop up Trump just to save their own political career.
Great reader comment in NYT that illustrates the circular arguments of MAGAs; and how it doesn't matter how positive the facts are b/c there's no getting thru to them:
"My next door neighbor is a Trump supporter. I love her, so we talk politics as friends; not an easy task these days.
Typically, she becomes intensly upset when parroting something the Donald has said. Repeating those MAGA sound bites turns this fine woman into a raving bundle of red-faced anger.
The other day, she loudly erupted with the usual -- "CNN lies! It lies all the time". I happen to know that she doesn't have cable TV, so I asked her how she knows that they lie.
Me:
"How often do you watch CNN ?"
Her:
I've never seen CNN; Never watched any of their programs. Why would I since all they do is LIE.
There you have it!! The inalterable power of MAGA.
We are doomed."
Julia, this terrific organization also has volunteer opportunities to personally assist people to make appointments to get missing ID documents and they help pay for transportation to appointments and for the documents. They will train volunteers and ask for a 3-hour/week commitment.
Let’s get Simon back again. It’s good to hear a positive spin once in a while.
Great show!
I’ve loved this!! Third time I’ve listened to it. 🤗
A question I have long had. I haven’t been as involved with politics as you Bulwark folks have been. But, my observation has been that the economy swings in this way:
A Republican president comes in as the economy is really taking off — and by the time they leave the economy is in the tank. The Democrat comes in and, with a lot of work, returns the economy to health - which a Republican president inherits. Then trashes. Then the Dem comes in and again slowly and laboriously returns the economy to health. While the Republicans peacock around about how great the economy was while they were in office. Meaning the good economy they inherited and then trashed. Handing a horrible economy to the Dems - to slowly and laboriously rebuild. Think Clinton to Bush. Then Bush to Obama. Then Obama to Trump. And now Trump to Biden. The economy Trump is so proud of he inherited from Obama. Then he trashed it. And Biden has been slowly putting it right …
Hard work to build. Easy to destroy. Messes with the optics of who’s to blame.
As JVL would say, “Am I wrong?”
No, you're not wrong. This is one of those things that makes me crazy b/c history shows that the economy does better under Dems - but almost everyone believes the opposite. Do you remember that Clinton eliminated the national debt?
Furthermore, to quote Heather Cox Richardson: "For forty years, between 1981, when Republican Ronald Reagan took office, and 2021, when Democrat Joe Biden did, the Republicans operated under the theory that the best way to run the country was for the government to stay out of the way of market forces... But the system never worked as promised... The result was that as much as $50 trillion moved upward from the bottom 90% of Americans to the top 1%.
I did know that (Clinton's wiping out the debt). Though it is not top of mind. Why is that?? (Thanks for the reminder!!!)
If only we would brag more and they would lie less . . .
Love Heather Cox Richardson. Have read nearly every one of her letters for YEARS. Such a depth of knowledge. She quotes pieces from the Bulwark from time to time. : ) And I always always learn something from her.
Very good episode as always. But I am not encouraged by Simon's take on things. If the higher ups in Biden's reelection campaign are quietly confident in his chances, they shouldn't be. Biden needs to get the border under control NOW. This issue is going to re-elect Trump if Biden doesn't get his head out of you know where and deal with it. He needs to clamp down on the border and forget about the pearl clutching on the left. And why has Biden's team not reached out to Chris Christie, Mitt Romney, and Mike Pence? Even Nikki Haley? It is going to take every single vote possible to win this thing in November. What if it comes down to 300 votes in Wisconsin or 1000 votes in Pennsylvania? It's possible. I feel like Biden and is team are living in dreamland right now where they think they actually are favored to win. They aren't running as if they are behind, which they are. They need to smarten up fast unless they want that orange nightmare back in the whitehouse in 2025.
Interesting podcast, Simon Rosenberg is a veteran Democratic campaign consultant and Tim Miller also has campaign experience as a Republican consultant, Tim was able to push Simon to speak to areas, where Simon had data and results to share to make his case. It was very well done!
Great closing message about progress taking time in response to the mailbag Q Tim, it's a great point for talking to progs unhappy with Biden, and I'd say it applies specifically to the Gaza situation in the current climate.
What a smart and informative podcast, especially the analysis and insights on the Hispanic vote. Great job.
I *love* Simon's 6-point messaging plan around the 11:30 mark on why Trump can't be elected, and it made me think "yes, this is great messaging, but how do we get people to hear it?" I think maybe we need to take that message to Republicans at large to entice them to stay home and sit out the election (we won't get them to vote for Biden), not just through the conventional messaging pipelines, but like, buy ad space on the popular right wing podcasts like Joe Rogan and Bannon's "War Room" and also on the TV networks like prime time Fox News and Newsmax. It can't just be putting this message out in between commercials on MSNBC/PBS/NBC/ABC and NPR radio to stimulate pro-Biden/anti-Trump turnout. It's gotta go out on the hard right radio/TV waves as well at times that these folks will be tuned in. Again, we're not getting these people to vote for Biden, we're trying to get conservatives and conservative-curious--men in particular--to sit out the election rather than voting for Trump. Ask them:
"If Joe Biden loses the next election and tries to send a mob to the capitol to prevent Trump from being certified as the winner, would you consider that justifiable? If not, then why is it okay that Trump did it?"
"If Joe Biden had put his fingers into your daughter or wife at a department store without her consent would you consider that okay? If not, then why is it okay that Trump did it?"
"If Biden personally paid a media outlet to suppress negative stories about him while amplifying fake stories about his political opponents, would that be okay with you? If not, then why is it okay that Trump did it?"
"If Hunter Biden took in $2B from a single foreign government into his investment fund that he personally profits after capitalizing off of his father's presidency that he personally worked inside of, would that be okay with you? If not, why is it okay that Jared Kushner did it?"
Messaging like this on all those six points (ending Roe, TS docs retention, financial fraud ruling not mentioned above). If it even moves the needle on the margins in getting some conservatives to sit out the Trump vote or write in Nikki Haley or something like that then that's a big deal in a national election that's going to come down to slim margins in about 4-6 states.
I had the exact thought while listening to Simon's succinct, 6-point summary of Trump's despicable acts. I want to see those points in ads on FOX. They won't convince the mindless MAGA fanatics, BUT... those "swivel-eyed loons" have wives, husbands & kids, who likely nod silently at the psycho's rants while quietly questioning their own political position. So many Republican women STILL vote for whomever their husband picks. Smart, sharp, biting ads on FOX skewering Trump on abortion, racism & depravity could finally start changing that.
It's getting late for "polling not to be there." Hopium is turning into copium. Sorry to delve into that unfortunate lexicon, but Trump is winning, folks. Rising gas prices, slowing GDP growth, campus protests and more carnage overseas are not going to move the needle in Biden's favor.
At this point, if I'm Biden and the Dems, I offer R's whatever they want on immigration and possibly even some spending cuts in exchange for Insurrection Act reform. Praying that the hurricane doesn't come isn't a substitute for boarding up your windows.
This is, as they say, complete bullshit.
Correct. Until we get into like August--at the earliest--these polls are not showing hardened sentiments. And when you consider margins of error and how polling results typically overlap both sides of that margin as elections get closer and closer, they tell us very little. See the 2020 and 2022 polling cycles as evidence of this.
Simon, thanks for validating what I've been saying for months.
Simon! Where have you been all my life??!! I love how you think and reason and use data and past experience to strategize. So smart. This was a very compelling podcast and I'm so grateful that I know who you are now so I can hear your viewpoints and keep the positive attitude along with you. I am especially heartened by what you said about voters perceptions of the economy in their own swing states. I live in Michigan in the Detroit area. At least here where I live it cannot be overstated how big of an influence Gretchen Whitmer, Dana Nessell and Jocelyn Benson have had. I like to think that it's not just in the Detroit area. Thanks Tim for the excellent song choice. Loved it. Also? Can you guys please come to Detroit after Philly and DC??
Good, thorough information from Simon. Hope he is back in the fall, to pull in some that may still be on the fence! In the mean time we all need to try and talk up how well the country is doing. One sample of the economy is doing very well…Friday evening in Fresno, CA, overcast, 20-some families standing in line for ice cream treats at Cold Stone Creamery. Family of 4 spends $40-$50 for dessert.
I love Simon but we need an insurance package, a Plan B. That means Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker!