658 Comments

I am convinced that Trump's disdain for rules and norms and common decency is the main reason for his success. The people who say "He's one of us" can't be referring to the circumstances and challenges of his life. Perhaps they mean "He doesn't talk like an educated person," but they must also mean "He doesn't care if he insults people for sport and delights in humiliating those who submit to him."

Whatever connection he has with average Americans does not rest on an understanding of their challenges or an interest in learning much about them. Joe Scarborough spoke about how effective it is for politicians to talk with average people, ask them about their concerns and really listen, and he noted that Harris didn't have much time to do that. But she can and does do it. Trump does not, because he lacks the basic empathy to do it. He is really not interested in his base, aside from their hero-worship of him. It's baffling that so many people don't notice it - or don't care.

I am certain that many of the people who claim he was persecuted by "lawfare" are well aware that he committed crimes that they would demand be punished if their political adversaries committed them, and they are celebrating his ability to evade any serious penalty. In a sense, it means that they too are getting away with it. Their ethical compromises and moral relativism have won the day. Ethics and rule of law are for losers.

It's all deeply unedifying.

Expand full comment

Well said.

Expand full comment

"...Trump’s first term may have been farce, but his second term could well be tragedy. ..."

So many things "could, might, possibly, perhaps, maybe". Those making these predictions never seem to provide the "what, when, where, why, how" to support the predictions.

Expand full comment

Already tired of all the blamecasting on the Democrats side.

You ever notice that the GoP doesn't seem to do much of that.. or pay attention to the bit of it that they do? Remember those autopsies they did and then totally ignored--in fact did the opposite of?

People, especially pundits and political consultants, treat the people as this malleable, easily persuaded mass that, if you follow the right recipe, you win... so if you don't win, you obviously had the wrong recipe. So it is your fault.

The mass of people is okay going along with this because it basically absolves them of the responsibility for their bad choices.

The devil made me do it. I was bamboozled/fooled/tricked. Not my fault.

The thing is, persuasion does not actually work that way. People are not that easily persuaded about a lot of things (especially things that touch upon identity), it is actually very hard in many cases to change peoples' minds.

I can convince you to buy the blue car rather than the red car (sometimes), but the reality is that you are gonna buy a car, because you WANT to buy the car. You showed up "just looking," but you were there to buy whether you realised it or not. You WANTED. All I had to do to make the sale was show you a car you wanted and show you that you COULD buy it. We'll make the numbers work ;)

You can tinker around the edges a bit, shade choices slightly, but you are not going to get massive change--not in something like a political campaign or ad camapign that takes place over a limited time period and with limited reach.

Looking at the Harris campaign, they did not make any real missteps or major mistakes. There are some things that they could have done differently--but I think we would still have gotten very much the result we did.

Why?

1) A substantial number of Americans think that the country is going in the wrong direction (these people do not agree on the direction to go, but agree that whatever it is the current government is doing is wrong);

2) A substantial number of white Americans is worried about the future, worried about losing control of the country. Worried about the collapse of "morals" (that they are also willing and eager participants in, for some reason)--the general tenor is negative;

3) Most people have no idea what will work (economics and policy) and do not believe that what they do, think, or say will have much of an impact, there is a general feeling of (almost) hopelessness--combined with the impression that the government is not doing much for them and won't do much for them;

4) There seems to be a natural human tendency to raise up authoritarian figures in such circumstances (look at history) with a sort of general understanding that the authoritarian isn't going to change much for the people at a personal level, but that oder and coherence will emerge through the exercise of the will of the authoritarian--ya, there might be some ugly stuff, but it will happen to those Other People and the corrupt elites--who will get what is coming to them.

When you plug this general malaise into the equation and raise up a candidate who is one of those Other People, I think you are kind of destined for defeat.

So the biggest and only real change that the Democrats could have done would have had to have been done in 2020--that is setting up a process to get a 2024 nominee who could capture the votes of the disaffected (who was also not a woman, was straight, and white)--the problem being that no such person was on the horizon.

Keep in mind we are talking PERCEPTIONS here, not reality.

People want to see that the government is doing something for THEM. White people do not think it is. Straight people do not think it is. Religious people do not think it is. They think too much attention and effort is spent on those Other People.

These people are tired of hearing about the travails of those Other People, about pronouns... all of that woke stuff. The troubles and oppression of those Others are either not real (it is hard to see/understand/feel oppression when you are not subject to it or are one of the oppressors) or are actually deserved.

People are scared that those Other People are going to take over their country and make them a minority... and this isn't an American thing, it s a world-wide thing.

People are mad that things cost more and blame the government (for no good reason).

Building that sense of malaise took decades. It will take decades to undo it, IF it can be undone (I think climate change and the resulting world-wide disruptions will make that next to impossible--plus energy costs are going to keep going up).

Our culture is bad.

Our sense of entitlement and self-obsession is off the charts.

Our government and justice system are the obvious tools of the monied class.

No wonder we got what we got--and the most perfect Harris camapign in the universe would not really have made a difference.

Expand full comment

It will take years, maybe even decades, but climate change (CC) will gradually force the GOP to stop lying about science. They could had have healthy debates on what should be done about CC, but so far, lying is the easiest (& sleaziest) way to fool the masses and win votes. Because they lack the data and know it, they can't even agree on how to lie, (some insist there's no global warming at all, others concede there is but insist it's not human caused). But that's not yet a problem given science illiteracy, which is disproportionately high among GOP voters. GOP politicians have been lying about science for decades, starting with evolution, where peddling irrational denial is a cheap way to win evangelical votes. There too, they know they lack the evidence, so they learned to say as little possible about the "better explanation," counting on voters to assume it's one of the mutually-contradictory, long-debunked literal interpretations of Genesis. When the refutations become too hard for them to address, they invariably fall back on baseless accusations of "conspiracy" of scientists. Musk is the interesting one. He has long admitted human-caused CC, AND the urgency to combat it. Now that he sold out to the MAGA cult, will he backpedal and start lying? Stay tuned.

Expand full comment

With all due respect, it's kind rich having a bunch of ex-republcans giving advice, when their own party got hijacked by a literal fascist who preaches basically the same stuff the party have been pushing for DECADES, but Trump just says it out loud, and with no filter.

Expand full comment

I've heard some Democrats saying things similar to what ex-Republicans are saying

And it's logically inconsistent to say the party was "hijacked" and simultaneously say the party was always pushing the same things as the hijacker. And how does a party "push" things it doesn't actually talk about?

Trumpers have been quite open in their belief that they killed off the old GOP and now it's a MAGA party. That isn't just the base. It's also the 'intellectual" wing that boasts about transforming "conservatism" into a counterrevolutionary movement.

The view among some Dems seems to be: 'We were always right about everything. The GOP was always wrong and evil." And if Dems lose an election, it can't possibly mean that anything in their message or platform fell short in appealing to the political center that decides elections.

It's a lot more productive to ask: "How can we be more persuasive to voters who saw something appealing in what the MAGA GOP was offering?"

Expand full comment

I'm not a Dem, and haven't been for more than a decade. They don't learn from fiascos like Gore and Hillary, they just point fingers at third parties.

Americans have become entitled assholes, who expect everything for free. And Trump promises exactly that, since tariffs will pay for everything -- including child care and IVF for everybody!

Expand full comment

Ruben Gallago has won in Nevada over Kari Lake. Looks like that R Senate isn't going to be very big.

Expand full comment
founding

“It falls to them to do so again.” Why?

Why aren’t you forming a new party to siphon off center-right voters, folks who value competent leadership, sober-minded foreign policy, and moderately regulated markets? Why not get off your tush, sir, and play spoiler? You’ve got the punditry thing down well enough, why not lead again, make another foray into the political arena?

I can easily see a “Conservative Party” playing spoiler to pick off fringe left and right-wingers. Adam Kinzinger and Elissa Slotkin could easily share the same party platform. A party like that, hewing to center-left and center-right moderates, while not an outright majority maker, could make or break potential ruling coalitions. I’d wager you’d get a lot of converts right off the bat, especially in light of the Democrats’ abysmal whiff this go ‘round.

Put your money where your mouth is. Own some of the responsibility. You’ve got the cachet in spades. Get some like-minded folks, hash it out, ask for small dollar donations to get off the ground… You know how to do this. Don’t just stand there and write, get out there and save America. Every single one of us following you would gladly volunteer in our local districts to build things up.

Expand full comment

This raises an interesting question: While Haley did get support in the R primary, would she REALLY siphon votes from Trump in a general election? Or would MAGA be have been able to paint her as a liberal pedophile?

Expand full comment

A "third party" would yield the result that was shoved down our throat in 2000.

Expand full comment

Mr. Kristol,

There is a straight line to be drawn from Nixon to Reagan to Daddy Bush to W to the #OrangeAtrocity.

YOU need to own that line.

Expand full comment

The "straight line" is Joe McCarthy, Roy Cohn and Trump.

Expand full comment
Nov 12·edited Nov 12

Neither Reagan nor either Bush was corrupt or evil.

Trump has more in common with his friend Bill Clinton (especially the normalization of rotten character and lying) than any of them.

Expand full comment

Ronald Reagan put ~250 of our military personnel in a barracks in Beirut in 1983.

They had NO MISSION! PERIOD!

Hezbollah, at the direction of Iran, drove a truck bomb into those barracks and annihilated our troops.

Less than 48 hours later RR invaded Grenada. He found a handful of Cubans with shovels. Wag the fucking dog much?

Congress had passed a law that prevented the US from funding the Contras in Nicaragua as they tried to overthrow the DULY ELECTED Daniel Ortega and his Sandinista Government.

Reagan wen around that ban by having the Pentagon sell weapons to FUCKING IRAN. The same FUCKING IRAN that blew up our Marines in Beirut. Reagan, Daddy Bush, Rumsfeld... should all have been thrown in prison for 30+ years for this treasonous bullshit.

Feckless W used the 9/11 attacks to attack the target he wanted to attack-IRAQ.

15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudis

Saudi Money funded 9/11.

IRAQ HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH 9/11.

Expand full comment

There was bipartisan consensus on Iraq's threat. Bill Clinton and Al Gore received the same intelligence before Dubya took office, and they reached the identical conclusion. That reason #1 why the conspiracy theory that Bush knowingly went to war under false pretenses is untenable.

Reason #2, multiple congressional investigations led by Democrats with no wish to see Bush exonerated failed to find even a shred of evidence that intelligence was falsified.

Reason #3, what reason did Bush have for going to war under false pretenses? To garner popularity? If he knew that no WMD would be found, then he would have known it would be an enormous embarrassment. If he could co-opt the entire military and intelligence community into deceiving congress and the American people, and keeping it quiet, why couldn't he arrange to plant the missing evidence, or get a friendly country in the region to do so? Faking the evidence would have been easy, if he knew no real evidence would be found, and would have avoided huge political problems.

Expand full comment

Looks like Musk is the VP.

Expand full comment

Yeah, Vance is kind of MIA, isn't he.

Expand full comment

Already Trump has violated the constitution, Senate confirmation. And his promise to easily end the Ukraine war in one day even before he takes office has proven to be a lie. His lie that being strong can prevent Putin from fighting rings hollow while Putin lines up 50,000 soldiers to gain more territory before the surrender of Ukraine to Trump/Putin. Stop with the sane washing and grading on the Trump curve. We have got to somehow hold Trump accountable for his mistakes. Keep score fair and square. Defeating MAGA in the 2026 midterms and 2028 election is still job number one.

Expand full comment

Part of the reason that the Republican Senate candidates for leader have tucked tail is they recognize that if Trump can overthrow the democratic process that there’s the possibility that R’s will rule permanently. This is all about power, power over everything and everyone.

Expand full comment

Why should it be up to Dems to save democracy now Andrew? Tried that, it didn't work. Not enough American voters were interested in that. 47% were but so sorry, it's not enough.

And besides, no one thanks Dems for doing so. Look I know one must be altruistic but when elected Dems fight or speak out on something that Trump does, who is gonna listen? Those in the know will know ie us but those on fox right wing media system won't. Maybe I'm being too pessimistic, but let's just assess case by case basis on what's worth saving. JVL and Sarah had this discussion recently. I lean more towards JVL on this one even though Sarah is forcing us to think of our better angels. We need her to do that. And we need your viewpoints too Andrew so don't stop. As much as I'm not hopeful.

Expand full comment

I'm with JVL on this one. Dems should only fight when it hurts mostly the reliably Democratic consituency, and not fight things that will ultimately be unpopular and hurt mostly the Trump consituency.

Expand full comment

I have to add that this will not work unless all elected Dems everywhere lay the blame squarely on Trump. Because Trump will *always* blame someone else and it's only perception that matters.

Expand full comment

Here's a thought and a means of fighting back... Biden should pardon everyone in Trump's crosshairs - Hillary, Jack Smith, Liz Cheney, Hunter, Adam Kinsinger, Adam Schiff, Merick Garland, everyone! Stick it right in Trump's ear.

Expand full comment

Just heard the stats about how a large share of Republican voters only voted for Trump and left the rest of the ballot blank. So oh that’s good news for the democrats because the Republican brand is still hurt and Trump is not on the ballot in 2026 and 2028. Ok… except doesn’t this allow his supporters to double down on trump being the only person that can lead the party aka lets go the authoritarian route??? Why are party leaders acting like we just need to figure out what the next coalition is???

Expand full comment

I think it just meant they were low information voters with sub-standard get out the vote education. I only know one MAGA voter, he works at the local convenience store, and I took care to heartily congratulate him. He said, well, he hoped it worked out for both of us, and thoughtfully said he thought men were getting more with it as they grew older. But to tell the truth I have been butting my head against deportation all day long, posting articles on my Facebook page, and I see no way forward but to go to adult Sunday School. Possibly this is a thing it did not occur to the Germans to do.

Expand full comment

There's a book called The Year That Changed the World by Michael Meyer. He chronicles how ordinary people behind the Iron Curtain brought down communism. They did it through creative alliances, persistence, patience, and creativity. Of course, Gorbachev was a huge part of why the regimes collapses -- he realized that the Soviet Union could not continue to prop up the other countries in its orbit, just as, hopefully, some in the Republican Party will realize that the cost of propping up MAGA is too great, financially or otherwise.

Advocates for democracy formed broad alliances. Students and environmental activities in Western Germany, who were worried about nuclear war, teamed up with students in Eastern Germany. Churches in East Germany invited students to use their churches as gathering and planning spaces. Hungary helped by loudly proclaiming that it didn't have the resources to guard its border, and, oops!, there were even holes in the barbed wire. An East Germany governmental PR person shrugged his shoulders and said he assumed the directive to allow people to visit West Germany took place immediately. A border guard in East Germany decided to open the gate when faced with a crowd of people chanting to be let through.

Of course, this was 40 years ago before the advent of social medial and the domination of right-wing media. However, I think lessons can be learned from the creativity, persistence, and even playfulness of people all across Eastern Europe who knocked down the Iron Curtain. A series of small decisions and acts helped push away decades of communist rule.

All of us worrying and working to stop dismantling of our democracy might get a few ideas here. Every little action counts.

Expand full comment

Thanks for book suggestion.

Expand full comment

Love this. We need to all learn how to do this. Or as Tim miller says, learn how to be the Hungarian opposition party.

Expand full comment

"But two things about this little episode spell trouble. First, Trump’s successful attempt to extract these promises from Republican leadership candidates shows how much more capable he’ll be of wielding power this time around.

And second, not one of the candidates running to replace McConnell felt it behooved them to take a stand to defend the institutional power of the Senate."

Besides the weakening of the institution of the Senate and the GOP's capitulation, the depressing thing is that I doubt this will reach casual news consumers. And if it did, I suspect they'd react with a shrug.

Expand full comment

Early in the Trump era, I saw an "intellectual" booster predict that Trump might be great for returning power to the legislature because "he enjoys deal-making." Right.

It would be interesting to know if that person has reevaluated his assessment, or rather changed his position on the importance of returning power to Congress. But I'm not interested enough to do any searching on it.

Expand full comment