There is a kind of Democrat that can win: The DINO...democrat in name only...like Manchin...if Manchin was running for president as a Democrat against Trump, I think he'd win.
Tom Suozzi ran a "DINO" campaign...not the typical liberal/progressive, left-centric campaign and look what happened. Centrist, moderate Democrats can prevail in the coming election. The case can be made that they are almost "Republican-light" (not necessarily a bad thing in my book, and may even appeal to independent voters) but they won't/can't win as Republicans because they are decent people who value the truth, the law, and our alliances, they respect the Constitution, and live in the reality-based community. Today's Republican-base voters will never go for someone like that, but a lot of independents and Republicans who can't stand the thought of - gulp - four more years of Trump would.
What I liked about Avatar was the concept of an avatar. I am the sort of person who makes connections, and right away I saw the connection to the biblical concept of Jesus as God in the flesh and the biblical teaching the God and Jesus are actually the same "person." From the first chapter of the Gospel of John, "And the Word became flesh and dwelt among us."
Tom Suozzi deserved to win regardless of the political shenanigans, he has been a good Representative of the people in the past even if he is a democrat.
To Lynn, If you want to stop gerrymandering, see my website firstamendmentfreepress.org and read up on "Article the First" . It returns fair representation to the people and does away with gerrymandering, fixes the Electoral college and diminishes the power of the major ( combined) party.
It all sounds lovely , but let's focus on fixing gerrymandering . ending voter suppression and getting rid of the electoral college . I would be sad if the majority did not agree with us , but I am angry that so may votes dont really count . I agree let's get rid of minority rule -- as I understand it , many of these rules were put in place very early to protect the rights of rural (eg slave holding) states . Been there , done that , ended in a civil war with almost unimaginable casualty r . Maybe fair play is worth a try
Ridding this country of automatic weapons, fixing a corrupt and illegitimate Supreme Court, ending voter suppression laws and gerrymandering, protecting a woman’s right to control her own body, creating a fair and equitable tax structure, re-establishing the Fairness Act, ensuring free and honest elections in every state, ridding ourselves of the Electoral College, making education better and more affordable, strengthening election laws and the Constitution to protect us from another trump. This would be just the beginning of what we could do for the health and welfare of the American people if the Republican Party was voted out of existence. Minority rule is killing America and Americans.
I wish I had your optimism. Garland sat back and let the Jan 6 committee do his work for him. They actually investigated the event , did depositions, took statements and subpoenaed witnesses while the AG napped. That’s why he is late to the party.
For those looking to read the Great Gatsby, it is in the public domain and free ebooks can be downloaded from Wikisource or Project Gutenberg. Celebrate the public domain!
Garland was in a position of "damned if you do, damned if you don't". Democracy is slower because it seeks consensus, versus a quick authoritarian response. However, from all political observations in history, the consensus choice is seen a the more correct one, even if it is slower. This is difficult when you are facing a fascist like Trump. In a war the Churchill types excelled, but they were also very bad in other areas outside of actual war. Especially if they were as racist as Churchill was. It is sadly difficult to get it right, at least in my view of both teaching and knowing history. Total non sequitur here, but lines from the Great Gatsby still remain with me, ever since high school long ago. It is brilliant writing. Also thanks for a great "Morning Shots". Charlie will be missed, but thank you for taking up this mantle.
Representative Miller knows what is at stake and I expect he could probably find say 6 other republicans who do as well. I urge him to take the gloves off go to Johnson and tell him he has a time limit to bring the Ukraine funding to the floor, he knows it will pass and if the space laser lady moves to vacate then the dems will protect him. IF he doesn't bring it to the floor Miller will bring the motion to vacate and he and his friends will vote with the democrats to oust Johnson then vote for Hakeem Jeffries as speaker. If that is what it takes to get this passed.
"First: The Democrat, Tom Suozzi, won by about eight points, the same as Joe Biden’s margin in 2020."
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I wouldn't read too much into Mr Suozzi's victory. He was a popular three-term Representative who didn't run in '22 so he could run for Governor. IMO, in a face-off between Suozzi and Santos, Suozzi would have won easily, Suozzi didn't lose to Santos in the election of 2022, *he didn't run* -- so any projections or looks in the rear-view mirror would have no validity.
Plus, the special master's redrawn NY Congressional districts gerrymandered the map, giving the New GOP quite an advantage -- one that is obvious when comparing how Repubs in NY State did in comparison to the rest of the country:
-----
"The special master-drawn maps had consequential outcomes in the 2022 midterm elections. While still taking the House of Representatives, Republicans underperformed nationwide. But in New York, the GOP did exceedingly well, winning five out of the state’s six competitive House races, flipping four seats previously held by Democrats in the process, including the House Democrats’ campaign chief." https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/politics/2024/02/12/new-york-redistricting-panel-to-vote-on-new-house-maps
-----
One only needs to view the map in the link to see how red the state is now. It's important to note that the NY State Court of Appeals ordered the map to be redrawn prior to the 2024 elections (rejecting Dem gerrymandered maps earlier, throwing it to the special master: "after the same Court of Appeals struck down previous Democratic-drawn maps in the spring 2022, ruling them as procedurally unconstitutional and “drawn with impermissible partisan purpose.”" ibid), which will give the Dems a better chance of winning in NY and reflipping the House back to blue. This is *not* a prediction; I'm not a political expert and, imo, predictions are just guesswork made by experts.
"It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future."
(If Trump's lawyers can submit a brief to SCOTUS beginning with a Yogi Berra quote, well then, we at the Bulwark certainly should feel comfortable doing so, too.)
Too much is being made out of the NY special election. I actually think the R Pilip actually did very well in getting 46% of the vote in that district. My observations:
First, nobody should be calling an 8% win a decisive win or even a landside. We're talking about 11,000 votes. 5,501 switch and the district would have elected a Republican. 70 to 30...that's a landslide.
Second, when a candidate runs following a scandal in his or her party, that candidate is carrying to a degree the baggage from that scandal. Santos' left Pilip with enormous baggage and she still got 46%. That's pretty impressive.
Third, Pilip was an unknown running against a well-known popular former incumbent who represented the district for multiple terms. It's surprising Suozzi didn't win by a bigger margin.
Fourth, I do think the bonehead move of the R House to refuse to consider any bill addressing the immigration issue hurt Pilip. I don't think the maneuver turned the immigration issue into a net negative for Pilip, but I think it limited her advantage on that issue.
Fifth, of course Trump is denouncing Pilip's candidacy as failing b/c she didn't fully embrace Trump and Trumpism. If Pilip had done that, Suozzi would have wrapped it around Pilip's neck and she would have lost by more than 20 points. Of course, the fact Pilip is a successful woman of color makes her Trump even more want to denounce her. If you haven't heard, Trump is a racist and a sexist.
All reasonable conclusions. Nevertheless, I'm enjoying the fact that Suozzi won. Was he the perfect candidate? No. Was Pilip a novice and weak? Yes. Does this mean much in terms of either a "blue wave" in November or Trump's weakness in the suburbs? Probably not given it was a special election in February during a snowstorm. But it was a good day. Haven't had many of those lately. I'll take it.
There is a kind of Democrat that can win: The DINO...democrat in name only...like Manchin...if Manchin was running for president as a Democrat against Trump, I think he'd win.
Tom Suozzi ran a "DINO" campaign...not the typical liberal/progressive, left-centric campaign and look what happened. Centrist, moderate Democrats can prevail in the coming election. The case can be made that they are almost "Republican-light" (not necessarily a bad thing in my book, and may even appeal to independent voters) but they won't/can't win as Republicans because they are decent people who value the truth, the law, and our alliances, they respect the Constitution, and live in the reality-based community. Today's Republican-base voters will never go for someone like that, but a lot of independents and Republicans who can't stand the thought of - gulp - four more years of Trump would.
What I liked about Avatar was the concept of an avatar. I am the sort of person who makes connections, and right away I saw the connection to the biblical concept of Jesus as God in the flesh and the biblical teaching the God and Jesus are actually the same "person." From the first chapter of the Gospel of John, "And the Word became flesh and dwelt among us."
Tom Suozzi deserved to win regardless of the political shenanigans, he has been a good Representative of the people in the past even if he is a democrat.
To Lynn, If you want to stop gerrymandering, see my website firstamendmentfreepress.org and read up on "Article the First" . It returns fair representation to the people and does away with gerrymandering, fixes the Electoral college and diminishes the power of the major ( combined) party.
It all sounds lovely , but let's focus on fixing gerrymandering . ending voter suppression and getting rid of the electoral college . I would be sad if the majority did not agree with us , but I am angry that so may votes dont really count . I agree let's get rid of minority rule -- as I understand it , many of these rules were put in place very early to protect the rights of rural (eg slave holding) states . Been there , done that , ended in a civil war with almost unimaginable casualty r . Maybe fair play is worth a try
Ridding this country of automatic weapons, fixing a corrupt and illegitimate Supreme Court, ending voter suppression laws and gerrymandering, protecting a woman’s right to control her own body, creating a fair and equitable tax structure, re-establishing the Fairness Act, ensuring free and honest elections in every state, ridding ourselves of the Electoral College, making education better and more affordable, strengthening election laws and the Constitution to protect us from another trump. This would be just the beginning of what we could do for the health and welfare of the American people if the Republican Party was voted out of existence. Minority rule is killing America and Americans.
How about a Champagne Room focus group (pay at the door). :)
Trump uses the law simply as a tool for his benefit .
It doesn’t apply to him. Hur is just a useful idiot that would be thrown under a bus tomorrow by Trump once his usefulness is gone.
Garland could do that but he won’t.
I wish I had your optimism. Garland sat back and let the Jan 6 committee do his work for him. They actually investigated the event , did depositions, took statements and subpoenaed witnesses while the AG napped. That’s why he is late to the party.
Now it’s too late!
I love this: The upshot of these two investigations isn’t that Biden is old. It’s that Trump is corrupt and Biden isn’t.
For those looking to read the Great Gatsby, it is in the public domain and free ebooks can be downloaded from Wikisource or Project Gutenberg. Celebrate the public domain!
Of course! But if they don't have a copy there's no need to buy one, since it's in the public domain. :)
Garland was in a position of "damned if you do, damned if you don't". Democracy is slower because it seeks consensus, versus a quick authoritarian response. However, from all political observations in history, the consensus choice is seen a the more correct one, even if it is slower. This is difficult when you are facing a fascist like Trump. In a war the Churchill types excelled, but they were also very bad in other areas outside of actual war. Especially if they were as racist as Churchill was. It is sadly difficult to get it right, at least in my view of both teaching and knowing history. Total non sequitur here, but lines from the Great Gatsby still remain with me, ever since high school long ago. It is brilliant writing. Also thanks for a great "Morning Shots". Charlie will be missed, but thank you for taking up this mantle.
Representative Miller knows what is at stake and I expect he could probably find say 6 other republicans who do as well. I urge him to take the gloves off go to Johnson and tell him he has a time limit to bring the Ukraine funding to the floor, he knows it will pass and if the space laser lady moves to vacate then the dems will protect him. IF he doesn't bring it to the floor Miller will bring the motion to vacate and he and his friends will vote with the democrats to oust Johnson then vote for Hakeem Jeffries as speaker. If that is what it takes to get this passed.
"First: The Democrat, Tom Suozzi, won by about eight points, the same as Joe Biden’s margin in 2020."
-----
I wouldn't read too much into Mr Suozzi's victory. He was a popular three-term Representative who didn't run in '22 so he could run for Governor. IMO, in a face-off between Suozzi and Santos, Suozzi would have won easily, Suozzi didn't lose to Santos in the election of 2022, *he didn't run* -- so any projections or looks in the rear-view mirror would have no validity.
Plus, the special master's redrawn NY Congressional districts gerrymandered the map, giving the New GOP quite an advantage -- one that is obvious when comparing how Repubs in NY State did in comparison to the rest of the country:
-----
"The special master-drawn maps had consequential outcomes in the 2022 midterm elections. While still taking the House of Representatives, Republicans underperformed nationwide. But in New York, the GOP did exceedingly well, winning five out of the state’s six competitive House races, flipping four seats previously held by Democrats in the process, including the House Democrats’ campaign chief." https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/politics/2024/02/12/new-york-redistricting-panel-to-vote-on-new-house-maps
-----
One only needs to view the map in the link to see how red the state is now. It's important to note that the NY State Court of Appeals ordered the map to be redrawn prior to the 2024 elections (rejecting Dem gerrymandered maps earlier, throwing it to the special master: "after the same Court of Appeals struck down previous Democratic-drawn maps in the spring 2022, ruling them as procedurally unconstitutional and “drawn with impermissible partisan purpose.”" ibid), which will give the Dems a better chance of winning in NY and reflipping the House back to blue. This is *not* a prediction; I'm not a political expert and, imo, predictions are just guesswork made by experts.
fnord
"It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future."
(If Trump's lawyers can submit a brief to SCOTUS beginning with a Yogi Berra quote, well then, we at the Bulwark certainly should feel comfortable doing so, too.)
Too much is being made out of the NY special election. I actually think the R Pilip actually did very well in getting 46% of the vote in that district. My observations:
First, nobody should be calling an 8% win a decisive win or even a landside. We're talking about 11,000 votes. 5,501 switch and the district would have elected a Republican. 70 to 30...that's a landslide.
Second, when a candidate runs following a scandal in his or her party, that candidate is carrying to a degree the baggage from that scandal. Santos' left Pilip with enormous baggage and she still got 46%. That's pretty impressive.
Third, Pilip was an unknown running against a well-known popular former incumbent who represented the district for multiple terms. It's surprising Suozzi didn't win by a bigger margin.
Fourth, I do think the bonehead move of the R House to refuse to consider any bill addressing the immigration issue hurt Pilip. I don't think the maneuver turned the immigration issue into a net negative for Pilip, but I think it limited her advantage on that issue.
Fifth, of course Trump is denouncing Pilip's candidacy as failing b/c she didn't fully embrace Trump and Trumpism. If Pilip had done that, Suozzi would have wrapped it around Pilip's neck and she would have lost by more than 20 points. Of course, the fact Pilip is a successful woman of color makes her Trump even more want to denounce her. If you haven't heard, Trump is a racist and a sexist.
All reasonable conclusions. Nevertheless, I'm enjoying the fact that Suozzi won. Was he the perfect candidate? No. Was Pilip a novice and weak? Yes. Does this mean much in terms of either a "blue wave" in November or Trump's weakness in the suburbs? Probably not given it was a special election in February during a snowstorm. But it was a good day. Haven't had many of those lately. I'll take it.
Take the emotion out of the problem…