Tim Miller and JVL dive into the bleak future of American democracy, global influence, and national identity. Is the age of America truly over? From authoritarian drift to international irrelevance, they explore worst-case scenarios—and why even the "best case" might not be enough.
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Agree with commentary re the rest of the world looking at America and understanding this is the end. As an Australian who loves America it’s heartbreaking to see the downfall of what used to be the best and brightest - the light on the hill for the world. The GOP has undermined and broken all your liberal institutions, norms and values and must pay a significant political price or you’re heading for full banana republic-level civic dysfunction 😢
Thank you republicans. Nice work.
Yup, we're going to go through hell before it ever, ever gets better, if indeed it ever does. Czesław Miłosz is correct. Americans just can't believe things could get worse.
100% right, Tim. I'm with you, the world cuts America out.
This is what I just learned (and makes me feel a wee bit better!):
U.S. debt is mostly in the form of Treasury securities — like bonds — which have set maturity dates. Foreign countries can’t just show up and say “pay us now.” They’d have to wait for those bonds to mature, or sell them on the open market.
Foreign countries aren’t the majority holders of U.S. debt. The U.S. public, banks, and the Fed hold way more. Even if China or Japan sold everything tomorrow, it would shake things up, but it wouldn’t collapse the system. Plus, they’d be hurting their own economies in the process.
Me too
This where I am at.
What happens to America if/when other countries who are holding our debt demand payment in full?
Good question. I've been thinking about that also.
Yep, boarding schools are packed with foreign students for the same
reason. They pay full ride.
It's like we've estranged ourselves from the family of nations. They'll never see us the same way again.
Ah, lest you forget, Trump inherited an economy that was in freefall, or words to that extent by some R mouthpiece this weekend. I had hope that he would have to own this, but the spin meisters have no boundaries. They are on track to convincing 40% or more of the country that the market correction, the inflation, and the recession are the fault of the Democrats.
Correct. Always a scapegoat of some kind.
Because of Fox News, propaganda.
It’s cognitive dissonance for me to listen to this after spending time yesterday at a Hands Off rally and march filled with determined and hopeful citizens. But it was only half a million people nationwide I read, not nearly enough to qualify as a true movement. (UPDATE: at least 3 million nationwide per today’s Wikipedia entry, and a County Indivisible member meeting I attended today reported 5.3 million, which may have been worldwide. So a movement is being born it seems!) There are so many root causes for how we ended up in this dark place, but know that there are many of us not willing to give up on the best of our ideals, as Pollyanish as they might seem to others. That said, I agree with you both as to general direction and timeframes. I’m in my early 70s and a three time cancer survivor so am doing my best to contribute to keep the flame of democracy burning while I am still able.
Same. I sincerely hope we can maintain and grow the resolve and energy of the past weekend's rallies to lead us to a better outcome. But I must admit, my assessment is pretty much the same as JVL's and Tim's. That said, it seems our choices are to try to derail what appears to be our current spiral downward, or just roll into a fetal position and let it happen. As a fellow septuagenarian who has enjoyed a whole lifetime of what America has been and always believed we have a responsibility to leave the place better than we found it, I similarly feel like it's my duty to get up and take action.
It was more than a half a million nationwide. Last night Yahoo had a report of 5 million, I have seen multiple reports today of 3.5 million. I think there was a single march somewhere that rang in at a half a million.
Whew, that last minute hit me right where my soul crushing hits. We are going into a new world that I most likely won’t see then end of. As I look around most Americans have no idea it’s happening and no idea how great we really have (had) it. Makes it an extra kick in the gut when some of our Boomer parents, who lived a very sheltered, golden existence in so many ways, are the ones voting for this now. Their legacy will be leaving a wrecked America to their grandchildren due to their reality tv star. I also realize all boomers aren’t that. I’ve been attending local marches and see them out there. But… I have a few in my life that are very proudly adding to our current situation and it crazy after seeing the life this nation gave them and seeing them pull the rug out for future generations and the world.
And North Korea.
Don't you think there was fraud in the last election? Trump said Musk visited all these swing states and he's really good with computers.
Boy. I am so with you on this Tim. I lay in bed at night and worry I'm losing my sanity. 😥
Trump's tariff moves are the biggest evidence we have that the 2026 midterms are in danger of being indefinitely postponed. Trump must have known the panic that would ensue after applying tariffs to 180 countries of the world. There is a straight line from that, to using the global emergency that he has created, as justification to not hold those mid-term elections. After all, he must know -- and all Republicans can feel -- that 2026 will be a slaughter for the Republicans. If Ukraine refuses to hold elections during wartime, then Trump will do whatever he can to use a similar argument and try and avoid the mid-terms due to -- in his mind -- the even bigger emergency of the global instability that he has wrought. Remember his comments before the Nov 2024 election that this would be the last time we'll have to vote. I believe he has imposed these tariffs so widely partially for that very purpose.
Whether it's that (and it certainly could be) or something else, he'll absolutely do everything he can to make sure we never have a "real" election again as long as he's alive.
Tim, Milosz is a little more complicated. He was a lefty poet during the war who hid out in Soviet occupied Poland writing. After the war, he was the ambassador for the new Polish Communist state in France. "The Captive Mind" was written to "explain" what happened to him, i.e. his mind was also captivated. I guess the positive side to this is that people can change and "wake up" from bad political decisions.
JVL and Miller emphasize two bad outcomes that really do seem inevitable: the free world will build a new economic order and a new military order, both of which will exclude us. I don't think we can avoid either of these. But there is a third bad outcome that we may still be able to avoid: pervasive corruption. When the nation's leader is corrupt, there is no incentive for honesty farther down the ladder, and things fall apart. This is why Russia's vaunted military showed up in Ukraine on 30-year-old tires. When a nation falls into the corruption spiral, nothing works and it is very difficult to get out. I hope--but am not optimistic--that we can avoid this peril.
We will never be able to repair things with a Senate and Congress bought by big money - pick your buyer of choice be it industry or individuals. Our elections are appalling.
We will never be able to repair this without strong and broad campaign finance reform.
We're also fighting constantly the lies, misinformation and conspiracy theories on the Internet. We have built a society such that we are our own worst enemy.
I agree and would add that our Congressional representatives have the biggest failure of imagination of all of us. Those who are not as corrupt (let's say) simply stick their heads in the sand and say, "It can't happen here."
What JVL said about the lack of an anti-authoritarian consensus deeply resonates with me.
I live in Maine. Before Trump came into office, we Mainers had already lived through 6 years of Governor Paul Lepage, a Republican who bragged about being "Trump before Trump," and indeed, was doing Trump's entire schtick years before Trump did. This a man who, during his time in office, called one state legislator a "cocksucker," accused another state legislator of "giving it to the the people without the benefit of Vaseline," and railed against Black men who, he claimed, were coming to Maine to deal drugs and "impregnate white girls." These antics gained him a Trump-like personality cult among Maine Republican voters.
Paul Lepage is the reason why we now have ranked-choice voting in Maine. He was elected in 2010 with 38% of vote in a 5-way race and re-elected in 2014 with 48% of the vote in a 3-way race. In both elections, the Democratic candidate split the non-Republican vote with the same independent candidate, Elliot Cutler.
Lepage was always unpopular; his approval ratings ratings averaged in the 30s and low 40s throughout his tenure, and he never got above 50%. And yet, he was able to stay in office for 8 years because the 60% of the Maine electorate that disliked him failed to coalesce behind an opposing candidate.
Essentially, the same thing happened in the 2016 and 2024 presidential elections. Trump had, at best, only a plurality of support among the electorate, and yet the Democrats failed to build a voting coalition to block him from office, thus allowing a plurality to impose their will upon the majority.
This may be naive, but I believe that the Lepage/Trump brand of mean-spirited, belligerent populism -- what I call "palooka populism" -- repels the majority of voters. And I don't think that most Americans would want to live in the country that men like these want to build. At the most, 49% of America wants authoritarianism. The problem is the we can't seem to get the other 51% to agree on an alternative. Autocrats depend on divided opposition to attain and maintain power. Until we can rebuild the anti-authoritarian consensus, I don't know how we keep the authoritarian threat at bay.
I don't know anything about ranked choice voting except a very basic concept. But it seems like a very good way of conducting elections. I think AK has it, but I don't know of anywhere else. Do you think there's any possibility of implementing it nationwide?
Sadly, in Missouri, we just approved a constitutional amendment banning ranked choice voting. Although I don't think most voters know that's what they voted for, because the ballot language led with banning non-citizens from voting (which was already the case, of course) followed by gobbledygook indecipherable paragraphs that were the actual intent of the amendment.
That's the deceitful way they always do things, and how they're able to trick people into voting their way.
I think that blue states would be able to implement it, but I doubt it would fly in red states. Here in Maine, Republicans see RCV as a vast left-wing plot to steal elections and would probably try to repeal it as soon as as they got into power. I would expect the debate over RCV to break similarly along partisan lines nationally.
I'm not sure, but I think that Alaska not only has RCV, they've banned partisan primaries for statewide offices. Their system kept Sarah Palin from winning a seat in Congress. Perhaps they could be a model for running elections nationwide.
The US was seen as fundamentally damaged when Trump was running for election in 2024 and the press treated him as a legitimate candidate. He was lying and spewing hate and nonsense, yet he was normalized by media afraid of alienating his brain dead supporters.
The economy was not a disaster. No one was ripping off the US. Immigrants weren't eating pets. Unless the country can agree on verifiable facts, we are going to continue living life through the looking glass.
I have a few optimistic projections to offer:
1. Because America’s standing in the world diminishes, Americans look more realistically at who we actually are and who we want to be.
2. Because of the tariffs, American consumerism is reduced, and Americans start buying less, buying used, fixing and saving things, and skills around this are rewarded.
3. Because of the blatantly racist and xenophobic immigration policies, second generation, immigrant leaders emerge and tie off the current backlash to demographic change for good.
Sorta like, pressure of events with painful processes in life, shake off the false. Frugality does that.
These discussions do their good, keeping us connected in ideas, another layer of resisting the nihilistic temptation to despair, like Milosz did in his art and exile.
I, too, needed this.
I can’t see how anything starts to change until something is done about Fox. They have, and continue to pollute too many people’s minds. They are the main propaganda voice for Trump.
My current mood...
" Life is very long
Between the desire
And the spasm
Between the potency
And the existence
Between the essence
And the descent
Falls the Shadow
For Thine is the Kingdom
For Thine is
Life is
For Thine is the
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper."
-T.S. Elliot
Always loved T.S. Elliot.
Indeed! He is my poet of this moment.
Czesław Miłosz was a Polish-American poet, prose writer, translator, and diplomat.
He is one of my favorite poets.
Re "in Banana Republic states they arrest people." "We have seen this happen three times in the last 18 months... in S. Korea, Brazil, and now France, where there was a national leader with an incredible populist movement behind them who broke the rule of law, and the rule of law held"
Had we been a robust nation in 2000, we could have allowed all Florida votes counted. In 1974, we could have been less eager to pardon Nixon. Instead, in the 1990s we zealously added millions to the deficit by chasing after a president's sleazy extramarital affair with a consensual adult, much to the bafflement of other advanced countries.
Bush v Gore: “those [safe harbor] provisions [of Title 3 of the U.S. Code] merely provide rules of decision for Congress to follow when selecting among conflicting slates of electors.…They do not prohibit States from counting…legal votes until a bona fide winner is determined.”
www.britannica.com/event/Bush-v-Gore/Majority-opinion
Surely the Democrats can take full control of both houses of Congress through the mid-terms, and then find plenty of scope to impeach - and this time convict - the President. The Dems should be working towards that goal. Can Trump prevent the midterms from happening? He’s not acting as though he’s wary of losing control of Congress in a couple of years.
Trump can’t prevent the midterms from happening, but Republicans ARE preventing fair elections. GOP is doing all they can to prevent voting. Look at North Carolina throwing out 65,000 votes to block the election of a Democrat to their State Supreme Court. It’s totally outrageous AND it’s happening. If I lived in NC, I would be burning their Supreme Court down now because they TOTALLY ended democracy.
How would the Dems do that? Would they resuscitate Jack Smith's charges with official acts excised? Trump can't have charges brought for anything he's done as president. Charge members of his cabinet? Wouldn't Trump then pardon them?
Learned something:
"he cannot be charged with a crime unless and until there is a postimpeachment conviction by the Senate. It is not that the President is immune from prosecution; instead, it is that the President cannot be charged with a crime relating to his official acts unless and until he is impeached then convicted as provided for in Article I, section 3 of the Constitution."
https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-939/303398/20240319140702136_23-939acUnitedStatesJusticeFoundationPolicyIssuesInstituteInc.pdf
His immunity is from the Supreme Court. The House has sole impeachment power, and the Senate sole power to convict. Take your pick - extortion, kidnapping, fraud, basic incompetence.
How can Congress charge him and convict him for crimes SCOTUS has determined aren't crimes if executed as official acts?
Because of the separation of powers - the Supreme Court has given him immunity to criminal prosecution for official acts as President, but that doesn’t prevent impeachment.
You are correct. What prevents impeachment are the corrupt Republicans who have been enabling Trump since 2016. He has more power over them than ever!
Congress trumps the Supreme Court on impeachment; they have the sole power. And they can impeach and remove for anything that gains the necessary number of votes. I see Vance as the biggest obstacle to this, aside from needing a bunch of Republican votes.
Got it:
"he cannot be charged with a crime unless and until there is a postimpeachment conviction by the Senate. It is not that the President is immune from prosecution; instead, it is that the President cannot be charged with a crime relating to his official acts unless and until he is impeached then convicted as provided for in Article I, section 3 of the Constitution."
If we don't get our act together and start winning Senate seats in the south and southwest we'll never capture the Senate again
We've done are part in AZ . The Old South is your basic problem.
Old times there are not forgotten
The myth of Exceptionalism has also hurt us. Had we been as honest about our history as the Germans post WWII instead of doubling down on whitewashing our past and elevating Creationism to the same levels of credibility as evolution, we might be more mentally nimble.
We've been buffered from exercising alternative perspectives and thus our imagination since about when the war in Vietnam upended enough lives here to force us to do so.
And people who were activists against Nam and for civil rights, informed and educated, also chose to look away and into their careers while raising families. They had more control over those domains and could see more immediate results, thus lulling themselves deeper into comfort zones and choosing self-soothing over staring Reality in the face.
When Germany succumbed to Hitler the country had suffered a shocking and humiliating defeat at the hands of the Allies, their economy struggled under heavy reparations, unemployment was in the 20+ percent range because of the global depression and Germany had suffered the definition of hyper inflation for almost a decade. When the history is written about America in the early 21st Century it will be ....the icing was so thick, they slide right off the cake
We are a spoiled and stupid people.
Exactly right. It's over. No more two steps forward, one step backward, as we have for the past 250 years. No more aspiring as a body politic to make a nation where everyone aspires to build an enlightened and inventive nation, and by extension a world where we all can live more stable, less painful lives.
Was it the glut of goods, the self-indulgence, that distracted us from looking outward and working and living with others, so that some began instead to look inwards, concerned foremost with protecting their hoards?
No matter. It was glorious while it lasted.
Now we get to see what happens as our climate and environment becomes ever more challenging for our survival. Insular and authoritarian, or not.
Will massive wildfire take my home and town this year? Will the threat that occurred once in the past 100 years, but then quickly twice again in the last five years, become an annual fear? Will our increasingly devastating drought worsen? What pestilence and disease will spread this year? Is it an inescapable probability? Yes. ... I too am turning inwards, looking at survival.
Before we can repair the situation - someone, somehow is going to have to be able to speak to at least a portion of Sarah's "32%" who have gotten so caught up in conspiracy thinking as to render them out of touch with reality. It's a mental illness damaging us at all levels, from families through to national/international affairs. To those people, everything you say that doesn't comport with their beliefs...is part of the conspiracy. And they are the ones with the armories in the guest bedroom closet.
MAGA is an identity now, a brand. People will give up on their family name or religion before they'll give up on Trump. To your point there is a solid chunk of American society that will never. In my state most people died from Covid after the vaccine was widely available. MAGA people literally risked their lives and the family members lives because Trump Daddy made vax denial an insurgency against Biden.
Realism. Scary but very real. I feel like this is the era of the rebirth of hate as the primary motivating force in one of the existing political parties. The American Civil War never ended for a large segment of our population.
Failure to read Marx also.
Failure to see that maintaining a balance of the scales relies on taxing and regulating the billionaire class.
JVL’s description of American culture as “degenerating” seems right to me.
Our degeneration has been happening for decades and not only on the Right.
Below are a few books I think accurately chronicle our decades of cultural decline:
The Culture of Narcissism – Christopher Lasch (1979)
Amusing Ourselves to Death - Neil Postman (1985)
The Closing of the American Mind – Allan Bloom (1987)
The Wish for Kings - Lewis Lapham (1993)
The New Empire of Debt – William Bonner & Addison Wiggin (2009)
Empire of Illusion - Chris Hedges (2009)
Why America Failed – Morris Berman (2014)
People seem to feel that this has all crept up on them as a surprise--try being a history teacher for the past 40 years. The history curriculum that's been taught over the past 80 years has given several generations mush in their heads, instead of reinforcing the exceptionalism of the Anglo-American political tradition. I've had high schoolers whose reading skills are so poor that they can't even understand half the vocabulary of the Declaration. You want to change things, how about insuring that kids can actually read! But it's not just a matter of whether they can read, but what they read. Although I'm not a big fan of Thomas Sowell, I think this quote sums it up nicely, "It's not that Johnny can't read...because he can't. And it's not because Johnny can't think...because he can't do that either. The problem is that what Johnny believes is thinking is simply feeling.
Amen. The textbook review committee born in Texas in the 90s? by ignorant nationalistic anti-academics had a huge impact on educational publishing companies, influencing what would be published in all textbooks, as it was cost-prohibitive to design learning programs individually for states. Cosmetic changes were made for different states, but Texas' censoring had a huge toll on entire learning programs. I remember the edict not to use the word "create" because textbook review committees believed that word belonged to the actions of the Christian god only.
Your comment is timely. My son teaches 8th grade and he was just telling me yesterday when I was talking with him on the phone that he had his students look at the cover of a book and he asked them the title of the book and who the author of the book was, and about half of the kids couldn't answer that question.
He tells me stories about the illiteracy of his students. He is a first year teacher, and only 22 years old himself, and although I knew that the state of our education system, and frankly more broadly, the way that we raise our children in this country is shambolic, at best, I had not realized how truly awful it is until he started his teaching career and shared these types of anecdotes. It has made me scared for the future of this country to realize how many young people are so ill-equipped to productively engage with society. It kind of explains Trump, really.
JVL: "if 45% of the country wants lawless illiberalism, then we're screwed and there's nothing to be done about it."
I think far MORE of the country wants lawless illiberalism, they just want Democrats to be the ones in power. They want Dems to smash through the laws and bureaucracy that keep them from getting stuff done, whether it's legal or not. (I swear to god I am not "both-sidesing" this. I'm a lifelong progressive who thinks Democrats are way too cautious and it makes me sick).
And you can't sustain a politics where only only side is willing to break stuff to get their agenda done and the other isn't. The party willing to break stuff will always read as the strong party, and voters prefer strength.
When did Obama or Biden ever approach an "authoritarian break trough" on Constitutional Power?. MAGA went nuts when Biden wrenched Student Loans anyway he could administratively before he finally gave up. Trump is destroying Agencies and just "declared" a $600 billion tax increase without Congressional approval and he's refusing simple Court requests and promising to refuse Judicial power over him. I'm screaming with you not at you. I just want to reject a populist "they screwed you, now we'll screw them" message
This episode just about brought me back to my election night head space: disillusioned, hopeless, and belligerently yelling, 'why does no one care?!' at the sky repeatedly despite being in public.
Thanks for "going there", guys. I am an American who has lived in Europe for the past 25 years snd my head is spinning. Folks here in Germany are terrified, yet seem determined, whereas my friends in the US are very unconcerned and blasé about our current situation. The disconnect between the two groups is vast. It's really difficult navigating between hopefulness and despair.
That's the impression I get from my European contacts.
In my dark mind I imagine:
- Trump declaring martial law and dictatorship
- Hegseth and sycophant generals supporting Trump
- Guerrilla warfare resistance
- Rampant bloody societal chaos
Why haven´t you been mobilizing people for the April 5th protests through your channels? Only George Conway has - privately (e.g. Bluesky). Why haven´t you covered/aren´t you covering those protests? Only George Conway has - privately (e.g. Bluesky). I know it´s the weekend and The Bulwark has its sort of 'down time', but do understand that a lot of these protests are and will be on weekends. And hopefully more huge ones are to come. Even the media in Europe are covering more of the US protests than you have/are.
If you want (to contribute to trying) to prevent all the darkness you are talking about from happening, you need to get active. At least get the mobilization energy going, feed it. Don´t just blablabla and navel gaze from your comfort zones. That is exactly what got the USA here in the first place (also see your quote from 'The Captive Mind').
Agree!! I'm still trying to follow JVL's "How to Think (and Act) Like a Dissident Movement written on March 24th!! Where did that spirit go?! 25,000 showed up at Seattle Center yesterday. My Mom lives in very red Yavapai Arizona and over 2,000 people showed up for their rally. We need your help Bulwark to motivate people to get out there. Thank you.
Great discussion. I would say that there are lots of possible domestic scenarios, ranging from mildly optimistic to apocalyptically disastrous, and it's pretty hard to assign probabilities at this early juncture. But there can't be any doubt about the complete collapse of the USA's leadership role on the world stage. Nobody can trust us again for decades to come, if ever. The big issues are whether the dollar and dollar-denominated debt instruments completely collapse as well--thus annihilating our economy--and which nation will play the lead role in the future. The problem there is that there is really only one genuine candidate, and it is obviously China. They are the only ones with the resources and the will to dominate, and they lack the constraints imposed by democracy. A dictatorship, despite all its many negatives, has the ability to act quickly without first needing to wait for a devastating crisis to motivate their citizenry. This is really bad news, and I struggle to imagine France and/or some European alliance having both the strength and the will to withstand the enormous force that the Chinese will soon exert. Things could look REALLY dark if the Chinese come to dominate the world the way the US has for half a century.
I'd like to give you a 100 hearts for this cogent comment.
There's no reason to believe that there will be one country or bloc which will dominate the world.
And as we've seen with Russia and now with the US, authoritarians surrounding themselves with yes-men and having delusional ideas can backfire.
China is more of a black box but there's some indications that Xi is able to fuck things up.
The EU moves when a crisis hits and then the movement can be relatively fast.
I'm not sure the world can get along without a reserve currency going forward and I can't see it being the U.S. dollar. I also have trouble seeing it being the Chinese renminbi (yuan), but I don't know what other candidates there are. I suppose the Euro is the best alternative, just as the EU is the best candidate to resist the dominance of the Chinese. And yes, the EU could move when a crisis hits, but a crisis of the scale that would actually make them move would probably have to be a military invasion. If China prevents the Russians from invading Europe and instead slowly spreads its worldwide influence over the next ten years, I think they could be hard to stop. Sure, Xi could fuck things up--let us hope--but he most likely would have to thrust into a crisis situation for that to happen. I suppose the most likely blunder would be to invade Taiwan; that could trigger the EU into action--maybe. Without the U.S., the Chinese military force will be enormously hard to contain outside of Europe itself. I mean, I sure hope I'm wrong, but Chinese scientific, industrial, and military advancements are so far ahead of the rest of the world at this point that the absence of the U.S. as a countervailing force could permanently tip the balance.
Re: the dollar being over as reserve currancy (people are not paying attention).
Isn't this exactly what the Thiel tech bros want? They want crypto. Not the dollar.
You damn conservatives, TIM, don't get it that it's YOUR fault that Covid drove people to Fascism.
It's the fact that YOUR government was against protecting people.
If you're Danish, you got 70% of your income as you stayed at home. The whole society was protected.
If you're Canadian, they said, "if you need help, we'll send you $2000 a month, no questions asked"
When Covid hit, Americans got the downside of public health like lockdowns with almost none of the upside. So everyone lost their jobs and many lost their homes. Most of the government help went to billionaires and corporations who didn't really need it - because that's the only acceptable role of government in American values. That's also why hysteria turned to anti-vaccination garbage.
And that's why Fascism is coming to America, when people are under stress and they don't believe that government can HELP, then they turn to scapegoating and racism and eventually genocide.
If you take "helping each other" out of people's values, that's what's left over.
By the way, a large number of of those corporations that got Covid money turned out to not exist.
Then in his last couple of weeks of his last term, Trump had the records of that shredded.
And the corporate media hid it. It got on a back page, then I guess it got quietly deleted off the internet, I did a short search for the story the other day and didn't find it. I'll put more time into that later.
I can talk about HOW American values got to be prosperity gospel - the only people deserving help are the super rich. American religion was turned into "serving the rich" by relentless indoctrination and careful control of every institution. The much respected Pew Research Center which does some of the best polling in the world was originally created in the 1940s with the intention of turning American Christianity against the left and thus safeguarding the wealth of its billionaire progenitor.
And the cold war involved indoctrinating the most religious areas in the country against Communism to a level of fanaticism to allow a strategy of starting a nuclear war if Europe is invaded.
It takes a strong level of insanity to convince the public to commit suicide in a global nuclear war to protect allies on the other side of the world.
Those were your values, Tim. And your friend Adam Kinzinger still comes on Bulwark podcasts and begs Democrats to stay away from the "leftism" which is the antidote to our sickness.
As for our hope, in the small our great luck is that Trump and Elon are unbelievably disconnected and ineffective. If we had less cartoonishly evil enemies we'd be doomed.
And in the short term past a big part of the failure of imagination is Biden's. He should have seen Trump convicted QUICKLY. If it all came down at once then the Supreme Court couldn't have bailed Trump out. Peru had an attempted self coup - it took them 2 days to arrest their former President. 2 days.
And Biden should have corrected the court by packing it.
His weakness enabled everyone else's weakness. It's true that McConnell is a fucking whore to the rich. He acts as if he banned passing any law that doesn't have 100 million dollar bribe behind it.
Expecting anything from him and a party he turned into a gang over decades was unrealistic. They couldn't turn on a dime from exploiting and conning America to protecting it.
Edit: I just thought of one more thing. Along with the unbearable pain that right wing values made Covid, we should also consider the unbearable pain that elites and their right wing values brought to the less successful 2/3s of Americans over their whole lives. People now have to work much harder for much less. Two parents work and can't affording housing or to take care of their kids. TIM, YOU AND YOUR FRIENDS ARE UPPER MIDDLE CLASS, MOST PEOPLE AREN'T (or are you all firmly upper class?)
The corporations decided that American labor was too expensive and started moving all of the jobs and manufacturing out of the country in the late 70s.
If the politicians had stood up back then, we'd still have a middle class. AND THEY DIDN'T.
Trump is standing up with snake oil, 50 years too late. But you have to understand that addressing a problem 50 years too late is actually still being the first person to address it in their lifetimes.
But why should anyone listen to YOUR CLASS that betrayed the whole country?
I agree with about 1/2 to 2/3 of your points. However, so what's the plan now? This is exactly what Trump wants, a fracturing of those who want to do something about him.
I am of the same thought, we’ve lost what was once a great nation, plundered by a tyrant, an international mob boss. Today, and every day, I lay blame on SCOTUS. They were the stopgap that failed, not only the United States, but the world.
Scotus is maga
Fear not, friends. Peter Navarro “guaranteed” on CNN today that the DOW would reach 50,000 during the Trump administration. The media is responsible for the sell-off.
I know extrapolating much from one anecdote isn’t reliable, but my family and I went to a restaurant we eat at often tonight, and it was eerily empty. Just a few people there besides us during peak dining time. I could overhear the people next to us discussing the tariffs and the staff seemed anxious that there were so few people. I get the feeling that the national mood has seriously shifted over the past couple of days, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the economy spirals down pretty quickly in the next few months. Hard to see any companies hiring or investing capital when the mad king can blow up your plans on a whim.
This. My personal solution to tarrifs? Don't spend money. Most folks 40+ are eyeballing their 401K and the kids 529 accounts free falling. They remember 2008-2009 and the near decade long chaos from that period. We're 5 years on from COVID and businesses are still reeling from the shocks of that period. Their planned retirement that seemed possible in 15 years now seems uncertain. Social Security is on the hook (it's always been, but now there's crooks inside the building.).
I travel enough around the world for work to see how the rest of the world lives. It's generally pretty austere compared to the US. Oh, sure, they have their mobile phones, and a big screen TV, but not a lot else. That's were most of us are headed. First by choice (if we're lucky), they by circumstance.
I've been so in the weeds of late, I missed the forest until just a few hours ago.
Stunning revelation: Trump has financially FUCKED OVER every retired boomer alive. I think people just haven't looked at their 401ks yet or fully understand where this is going if Trump doesn't change course and I don't think he will. I'm not sure he even can.
The market has dropped nearly 20% in 10 weeks. Over 10% in 2 DAYS. That may be largely survivable but Trump has essentially promised us "a little pain for a huge pay off". Let me translate: He's going to drive us into a recession and drag the world with us. That's likely 10%-20% MORE. Elder Millennials are pretty well screwed too. It's actually worse for Trump supporters. They've been pouring money in to buy into the Golden Age Trump was bringing us into. I just talked to one of them and I'm sure he's far from alone.
Trump is going have to invoke the insurrection act by the end of the May, maybe April because when people get their 401K statements and assess the damage, there may be riots.
For everyone 50 and older, I pray Trump will wake up to this not is REALLY bad for Americans and even worse for his base declares victory and drops the tariffs. But I 90% sure he will not. I'm simply afraid he's got the bit in his teeth and we got another week of this before someone slaps him hard enough upside of the head to snap him out of this.
If not, as crazy as this sounds, he may actually manage to get himself impeached a third time. It'd have to be quick before he calls out the troops.
I may have just out gloomed JVL
Well, the 50+ crowd is screwed. There's just not enough runway here to recover...where are you going to get an extra 5 to 10 years? As you note, the losses are huge. setting many back years, with no clear plan for what a recovery would look like. I suspect many (myself included) were already in a mad dash to save enough, but these huge setbacks mean it's going to be difficult to hit critical mass.
Technically, if Trump stopped now and just played golf for the remaining 3 years and 42 weeks (not that I'm counting), the market could snap back quite quickly, faster then it took to recover from the 2008 crisis.
But that was a HUGE (to the point of non-existent) "if". The problem is that, if Congress doesn't snap to this week, Trump is just going to keep digging furiously until it does become a 2008 style crisis (only worse) that will take 10 years after Trump is stopped to recover from, if ever.
So yeah, if Trump continues this madness, we're all screwed for decades.
Sure, they might snap back, but by all accounts, as you note, it's not going to happen.The likelihood of the world order forming up behind us again? If, somehow, we were to be on our best behavior every day moving forward, it might happen in 50 to 60 years.
I hate to say it, but I feel like because the Bulwark focuses on American Political crises, you are under-imagining the problem. What we are seeing is only the beginning impacts of climate change and AI... this is literally the tip of the iceberg. On top of that, something like polio, bird flu, and the measles are going to become a problem. As the team noted the other day, panic does not bring about humanity's best instincts, and we all know a great manipulator who knows how to use anger to his advantage. Forget prison camps, how long do you think it will take them to argue for putting turrets on the border. Climate change will promote the migration of people from regions around the equator; this movement will be exacerbated by our withdrawal from the world. The figurative sandbags institutions like USAID where helping to build aren't going to be there... I think it's going to get a lot uglier.
If we and the world take the economic hit that I think may well be coming. Trump may have done more to help climate change then Biden did. I'm trying very hard to avoid the D word but a deep recession and supply change disruption may set the world economy at least a decade. Yea for silver linings?
How much blame does Fox News deserve for where we’re at nationally? To me, a lot. Maybe most. I think it’s hard to overstate the reach and the poisonous influence it’s had on the nation. I also think reality TV hurt us badly.
Agree. It was all foreseen by Neil Postman in Amusing Ourselves to Death: Public Discourse in the Age of Show Business (1985).
You reminded me of something I forgot about but that absolutely stunned me in 2020 and proves JVL's point. For all of Trump's mismanagement of COVID (it will be gone by April, inject bleach into your system, etc., etc....), Biden barely snuck by for the win when I thought there was no way he would lose, not with what Trump did with COVID. How can we ever get the consensus to rebuild when we are that polarized.
There are no two people I'd rather listen to right now than the two of you talk about the reality of where we are. This has been the hardest week so far for me; and you two prove yet again that I'm not alone. Thank you for being willing to go there. Denial is not our friend right now (unless it's necessary for health reasons). It's an unimaginable lot to process, but it's easier doing it w/ others who are as clear-eyed and devastated as I am.
To Tim: ‘Embrace the Despair.’
To JVL: And yet, keep the Hope open.
Cognitive dissonance: means you can
have 2 thoughts at the same time.
I was encouraged today of the level of protest with the Hands Off theme. I was in St Pete Fl. It was Trump’s demographics of white middle age folks and seniors
I read all the comments under Joyce Vance’s request this evening to recount your experience if you went to a “Hands Off” demonstration, and it made me feel a whole lot better than listening to this discussion at TB. What was especially striking were the relatively large turnouts all over Florida. Even in places like Fort Myers where I just know the vast majority of people are white retired conservative Republicans. The numbers were so impressive that I decided Trump purposely waited until after the election in Florida to replace Gaetz and Waltz to announce the tariffs and crash the stock market because the fallout would light a fire under the retired people in Florida. Had he done this before the election, I now feel certain there’d be a Democrat going to Congress to replace Mike Waltz.
Even Elon Musk is complaining about the tariffs on X and advocating for a tariff free world with no trade barriers and an ultimate free trade global experience. As psycho as he is, Musk may be the wild card that saves the day. It will be a different world, but not necessarily a 100% total disaster.
Thank you for your honest, and sadly, realistic assessment of our grim situation
For perspective on how far political discourse has descended in so short a time: Here's the transcript of Obama's talk April 3/2025 at Hamilton College. LINK: https://barackobama.medium.com/conversation-at-hamilton-college-0c44228ac0bd
Listening to it made me cry. Not because Obama was perfect, many Bulwarkians have issues with individual policies, but because the man, and the time required thoughtful, respectful, empathetic discourse. I recall McCain's harsh rebuke of a supporter who called Obama a traitor. Barack has some valuable takes on the current crises. On brand, he bets on the upside of successfully climbing out of this hole. Proud of my alma mater for hosting this thing.
This needs to be a partnership of those who care about the country. We have to be honest not only about how our institutions failed, but about what has happened to our civic culture. I think some of this goes back to what Tom Nichols often brings up...that we have become a nation of spoiled children. We have had it so good for so long that we didn't think we had to work to keep it. Our culture became deliberately divided by Fox and then exploited for power when we were too broken to resist. Enough of us have to care and commit to the hard work of rebuilding starting with our relationships with each other. We can look to Britain to see what it looks like to be "the" former great power.
I feel the way JVL and Tim do… but aspire to react like Sarah.
i always listen to podcasts but today for a reason known only to my unconscious mind i watched the video... the haunted look in JVL's eyes as he smiled into the camera at the end made me stop and take a breath... hang in there, JVL, we're all in this together...
Trump and JD could be seen as war criminals for plotting to take over Greenland. What if they are arrested and have to appear before an international court?
I listened to the Secret Pod yesterday and have to say that I lean more towards JVL's take than on Sarah's. I wish I could be more optimistic, but the pandemic showed me that we are not a serious society. If we were in a situation like during WWII where people had to ration different food and use blackout curtains and turn off lights at night, there would be revolts and riots in the streets. As a country, we seem to have lost the sense that we are in this together. Too many are just in this for themselves, with no thought to their fellow citizens. I don't remember who said it, but one of our (former) allies said that the US can't be counted on when every four years, they have to worry about how the vote goes in Wisconsin. They were right, I don't blame them. I don't see how we come back from this, even if Trump claims victory and undoes all the tariffs he put in place. We have a DNI who retweets Russian propaganda, a television host cosplaying as the Secretary of Defense and a QAnon conspiracy theorist getting people working in national security fired. We are no longer a serious nation, and everyone else is right not to trust us.
I always said during Covid that it should have been presented as the patriotic thing to do. If the Trump Admin had a campaign featuring Rosie the Riveter type imagery and really boast about Operation Warp Speed, which was the actual hallmark of Trump 1.0, it may have been different. But Trump had to appeal to peoples worst basest instincts.
I do think the only thing that will get peoples attention is money. Not even a million Americans dying. But unemployment, prices skyrocketing, the stock market tanking. No one to blame but himself. It may be our way out. Then comes the hard work of clawing our way back into the global economy and security systems.
Well this was depressing though feel you are spot on unfortunately. And I’m 🇨🇦. Thankful for Mark Carney
I don’t know any one person in particular who can’t wait to start a factory job? Because I’m on the dark side with Tim, so im guessing maybe Medicaid and snap beneficiaries will be forced to build the factories, and than work in them. Good times America.
Bingo!
I have to admit, I loved this. I feel a bit bad for Sarah though.
So my take that no one asked for:
I have told myself there's a silver lining to Trump: Once everything is wrecked we'll have the opportunity to build something new and better. It probably won't be finished in my lifetime (should we take the opportunity) but the opportunity will be there. And this seems to be Sarah's take.
And then I look at human history and I think... that's not how it works. That's not how any of this works. How it works is this: The Library of Alexandria is burned. The European Dark Ages lasts for 600 years. Putin's kleptocracy subverts a struggling new democracy. The robber barons deforest America.
Here's what will happen: Post-Trump there will be an enormous opportunity to build something. And someone *will* build something. The question is who. And I'm afraid it's not going to be the pro-democracy folks because those guys are feckless.
I love you guys because you say the things I'm thinking, but I can’t help wondering if your assumptions about the future might themselves be an example of Milosz's “failure of imagination.” If anything, these times call for new ideas, ones that haven't been tried yet or even thought of yet. Btw, Czeslaw Milocz won the Nobel prize for literature in 1980. One of the greats.
His Nobel speech is worth a read.
5 minutes into this video and you guys have me totally depressed. But sadly, I know you are right :(
I love The Bulwark for this type of analysis. It is absolutely spot on.
But two questions are screaming at the back of my mind: *How* did we get here? *Why* did this happen?
Some may say that looking backwards is not useful because we can't change what has already happened. But I think that we need to understand *why* and *how* we got here, so that we can figure out if we can fix the problem, and how we can move forward.
My theory on the how and why: The seeds of our destruction started with the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which elevated non-White people as full citizens. White people subsequently lost their minds. The conservative movement and the Republican party began its 60-year death march to destroy the Civil Rights Act, even if it meant destroying our democratic institutions, our constitutional rule of law, and the entire world economic order. A profoundly American nihilism.
I say this because basically every principle that conservatives and Republicans claimed to hold dear, has proven to be a lie: Fiscal responsibility, lies. Family values, lies. Strong defense and international alliances, lies. Constitutional rule of law, lies. Due process, lies. Free speech, lies. Capitalism and free trade, lies.
So I think I know how and why we got here. Unfortunately, I have no idea how we go forward, when half the country would rather blow it up than elect another woke DEI Black President with a funny name.
You really need to be reading Heather Cox Richardson's Letters From An American as well as her book, Democracy Awakening.
As I began reading your comment, and got to "How did we get here?" I thought, "We got here thru decades of Republican efforts." I don't think MAGA was necessarily inevitable (altho maybe it was), but it IS a very logical outcome.
I've been commenting since the election - esp. on the FG pods - basically the same thing you're saying: if we analyze how we got here we're more likely to be able to figure our way out. But in the same way that only a (former) Republican like Tim could write *Why We Did It*, I think a Republican would be most effective at this. I'd love to see a *How We Did It* - preferably combined with *and How We Repair the Damage and Chart a New Course*.
I think Sarah's continuing to platform the people she does is at best a waste of time, and at worst counterproductive. (We've known for years how they think.) And I believe it limits her effectiveness. I would love to see her instead spend her time conducting such an analysis (along w/ her Bulwark colleagues of course), and hopefully in the process coming up w/ some solutions.
Tim and JVL are my favs for a lot of reasons (not the least of which is their brilliance), including the fact that they're so clear-eyed. It's primarily b/c of them (altho I very much appreciate the whole Bulwark community) that I haven't felt alone thru this ordeal. They give voice to my concerns, which I love; b/c if you're not willing to recognize and thoroughly understand a problem, you can't effectively solve it. But I'm not sure there's a solution for this one that results in the U.S. remaining one country.
(BTW, Stuart Stevens wrote a book about your very point entitled *It Was All a Lie*.)
OK, I love you guys but at less than four minutes in, I need to hit pause and go to bed. Maybe I come bak to this, maybe I don't. My ability to imagine the worst is pretty damn good, but I can't go there with you tonight.
That was the most depressing podcast I have ever listened to, and I agree with 90% of what you are saying.
I share the dark view and my advice for everyone is to buy seeds, and soil, and fertilizer, and pots, if you're doing container gardening. One lesson learned from COVID is that the supply chains breaks down. When farmers are tariffed, it means that they will not be able to grow your food, and seeds you seek to buy will be scarce. Fertilizer and bagged soil will become expensive. When aluminum is tariffed, it means that canned goods will become exorbitant. To sustain yourself, buy what is available that you need this week and four weeks forward-ordinary medicines; soap if you fancy England and France; pasta if you prefer Italy, you get the drift.
Don’t worry, the business community will wake up one day and fully realize what’s happening, and somehow they will figure out how to take Trump out. I still think Trump will have an accident or a serious health event and he will die before the 4 years are out. He may even fall out of a window. Vance will be too scared to continue with the program and back down a little. There are too many people who will lose too much money to let this psycho continue along this path for too long. And none of the other countries are going to come here and build factories for us to work in. Once this reality hits, and it will hit hard, things will change.
Not even 100 days in!!!
One of the old saws---or is it a truism expressed as an aphorism---with which I broadly disagree is that "we [United Statesians] have more uniting us than dividing us." That is profoundly untrue. We have become at least two, and I would argue four or five, separate factions, with wide and widening spaces between our values and outlooks. This nation, born of compromise between a different set of factions, is no longer capable of embodying the differences in a workable government.
The solution offered by the f@#$%&g republicans, that of one faction---or more likely, two temporarily yoked factions---dominating the others is doomed from the outset. For all the comparisons of us to Germany of 1933, there is just too long an institutional history of refusing to submit to force.
This is why I think separation will be the ultimate outcome. We will self-sort into two or more nations. Even California, which I expect and hope will lead the way by declaring independence before what I expect to be a farcical election in 2028, will be subject to internal pressures, bearing in mind that six million Californians voted for trump. The end result will be new nations capable of achieving true consensus. We I think will hew closely to the old ideals of rule of law and the good of the whole people. Whither the others I cannot say, but I am glad I'm here.
Uplifting, no. Thought-provoking, yes. Always grateful to listen in, although I have to lean into Sarah's guarded optimism so that I don't just give in to despair. You three are the perfect "thought trio" 😉 thanks.
Exactly how I’ve thought about this. The world moved on without us the minute we re-elected a sadistic traitor. It will take decades to build the US into something positive. We will not be at the head of any table. We spit in everyone’s face and they are not going to forget.
We have months - maybe and with miracles and hard work - to keep things from going truly dark. If we miss that window, we are looking at a rapid descent. People have got to come to grips with that reality…and they have been unwilling, so far.
This is going to require character and we don’t have it. We don’t even have a shared definition. Anecdote: Cross off any flicker of hope for the military refusing unlawful orders. The Naval Academy just pulled 400 books from their library because Hegseth was visiting. So much for the “honor” our tax dollars are supposedly cultivating in our leaders at these service academies.
they have been playing Fox News on military bases 24/7 for 25 years
Yep and in the intel community offices and other government buildings. Army Chaplains were Fox watchers. Broke my heart.
When change happens - spurred by JVL at approximately minute 19 - we can't do it at 51%.
That's right - we can't; but what you aren't thinking of is the fact that we are a negative feedback nation - that is the nature of democracy, or a democratic republic, however you want to phrase it is by its nature a negative feedback system.
As a doom and gloom guy, I would have expected you to carry out the requisite steps of the collapse that you are talkling about here - you gloss over the fact of what is going to be inevitable things taking place.
The destruction of trade and trade agreements (our fault)
The disruption of the fossil fuels industry (our fault)
The crash of wall street (our fault)
A recession/depression with a 25 - 35% unemployment rate (our fault)
The collapse of the current healthcare system starting with medicaid/medicare - (our fault)
Then - when our economy has crashed and we have entered another depression - then we will either make it or lose what we have begun toi build. That is the time - that ios the cusp that awaits us.
I admire the Bulwark - but what you don't realize, even the most gloomy amogn you, is the realization thgat we don't fix anything until the car is in the ditch and engulfed in flame.
THEN we step up - it has been so with any major issue, starting with the revolutionary war itself, then the war over slavery, womens rights and the labor movement, and civil rights from tyhe 1950's on.
We are in the beginning stage of a low section of our history - will we pull it out this time, andmake sure things are better for our kids and grandkids?
I hope so, but it is up to us.
As you say, folks - good luck America.
Better yet, stay vigilant and get pissed off!
Putting it another way, JVL is discounting us too much.
Easy to do; I have hope, but things are going to get a LOT worse before they get better - lots of typos in that response, it was done in my bedroom keyboard late at night - here is a more concise peice on the haplessness of democrats and what we need to watch for in the future! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHY5FypMuK8&t=5s
This is the discussion that should be happening in every media outlet in the country right now, instead of what we're seeing -- futile attempts to understand if there is a plan, or desperate speculation where the market will bottom so everything begins to go back to normal, or crying for poor Apple and Facebook that they've lost billions. All media should be finally screaming out that The Emperor Has No Clothes and is an idiot, and that this crisis is serious and means that this emperor needs to GO -- and preferably to jail, where he belonged 4 years ago, and not back in the White House creating more mindless destruction.
There were anti-Trump rallies all over the world today with hundreds of thousands of people attending. I don’t see any Bulwark coverage of them?
Actually more like millions. And no coverage?
JVL, Fukuyama has not been proven wrong. His argument is that there is not some yet found political order that delivers prosperity better than liberal democracy. America may be wobbling, but there isn’t some new, better regime in the horizon.
In the End of History he even warns that decadence is one of the biggest risks we face. Man needs struggle to find meaning, and if there isn’t a struggle, we will invent one. Pretty prescient for 1992.
Yeah, but I think you're splitting hairs. JVL's argument isn't that there is something better than liberal democracy; it's that it's possible to backslide from liberal democracy to something further away from "the end of history."
Right, but Francis Fukuyama says the exact same thing. The point of the book is to say liberal democracy is best and there's no sign of anything better on the horizon.
Even authoritarian regimes at least pretend to be democracies. There is no significant constituency crying out for a king, emperor or politburo.
Even the futuristic network state models have rights and democracy as their basis.
Help me understand...from my reading (not an expert) that network state models philosophy seems like just another form of rich guys hoarding power for themselves. No democracy necessary.
Sigh. He's arguing the idea of the "end" and what that means. He's not debating the substance.
Perhaps following a disastrous reign of Trump our country is able to survive, the Europeans will help us to recover as we helped Europe to recover after World War II.
Why?In 8 or 12 years some demagogue will rise from the ashes of the Republican party - new and even worse than Trump - and we will be right back in the ditch. Eisenhower —> Nixon —> Reagan/Bush —> Bush 2 electric Bugaloo —> Trump —> more Trump. The pattern is pretty clear and they’ve been doing a shit ton of damage from deficits, wars, economic collapse, catastrophes every time they get back in. Who thinks this will end the cycle? Not me.
Perhaps the Republican Party, which is not nearly the same Republican Party as the Republican Party of Eisenhower and others, will meet the same fate as the NSDAP did in Germany. Eisenhower promoted desegregation of schools, Nixon, for all his faults, established the EPA, George W. Bush established the strategic vaccine reserve and Pepfar to combat AIDS in Africa (which Trump has shut down). The old Republican Party has been destroyed by Trump. Perhaps the Trumpian Republicans will destroy themselves.
I’m going to say that I hope you are correct but my inner Bad JVL is extremely doubtful.
The conflicts that will inevitably arise as the effects of Climate Change worsen - all the things that the CIA and Military have been noting - mass starvation, migration, etc etc aren’t going to give us the luxury of sitting back and nourishing a new and better Republican party. The old and worse aspects of all of this will come roaring back.
I think you are still too optimistic! Seems to me that US is turning into Russia. It is threatening to annex other countries, it’s disappearing people, it’s destroying its education and science, it has broken the rule of law, etc. Trump is acting like a global mob boss demanding every country except Russia/Belarus to pay protection money in the form of tariffs! THE US IS EXTORTING UKRAINE FOR ALL OF ITS RESOURCES!!!! Even Orban hasn’t gone that far!
It’s comforting to know that Tim and JVL get it, too. Most Americans don’t seem to understand how dire things are but at least we have Tim and JVL to validate that we’re not crazy.
I think “decadent” is the perfect description for our society today. Thanks, JVL.
Thank god for you two. I’m tired of hearing “it’s not so bad” or “don’t be ridiculous of course your social security payment will still come” and most despairing of all “well they were probably in a gang so should go to prison in a country not their own”.
Is it sad that Americans don’t care about USAID not assisting Myanmar in a horrific natural disaster? I’m not sure Americans care about other Americans. They are hearing federal workers & veterans are at best freeloaders, and think that’s ok. Poor Americans will lose their healthcare & food assistance and they generally seem fine with it. I could go on & on
A failure of imagination indeed!
Being European and having lived in America, I can both understand and feel confused by the reverence some Americans have for their constitution. I think the second amendment is a good example since it has been so skewed, as it was only meant for a time when America did not have the kind of military it has now, and only meant to be organized under certain circumstances. I think Americans really deserve to expand upon the constitution, as it has been expanded upon before, but for it to never go against personal freedom. Like in Switzerland where additions to the constitution can be made by the people, but never if it infringes upon human rights. Idk it’s just a trip being on here and seeing so many great Americans, it makes me wish there was more room for citizens to really make a difference and for guard rails protecting all the great science and progress in America to be super solid
Ahhhh! My son works in manufacturing. What makes Americans think that manufacturing plants are owned by America. He has worked in three places. None owned by Americans. Their margin is smaller than the tariffs. He is worried he will lose his job. Do we no longer understand our own country? Who owns what. How connected it all is. My husband has cancer. When we talked with the head of trials she was saying it’s a matter of time before it all comes tumbling down.
We will know the health of the tree by its fruit. This is all downstream. Much like JVLs prediction about the stock market. You were days early and many dollars short.
I work for a manufacturing company as well and we just sold to a Chinese company which I find hilarious because our owners are all in on Trump.
That’s what I mean. It’s like we don’t know that we don’t know
I am an old lady, so I can look back over many years. It seems to me the hateful dysfunction really amped up during the Clinton years with Newt Gingrich, Rush Limbaugh, Tom deLay and others making a scorched earth attack on all Democrats. Before that, we had statesmen, who worked together for the good of the country.
I started to listen to this, but stopped. Not (so much) because I'm against the dark. I'm down for that. Mostly because I had just come home from NYC Hands Off rally and was feeling pretty good. It's a few hours later now, and I've been thinking....
Almost all of the signs I saw today, and people I spoke to today, were there to voice opposition to things that are being done *to* people today. In America and in the World. And not *just* Federal workers, but the people for whom those Federal workers were working. Oh sure, there were a few "how's your 401k signs", but mostly it was about Due Process, about Freedoms being taken away, about what America has meant for Americans for three centuries, and for the world for one or two.
And then I found myself thinking about the Tea Party movement. Correct me if I'm wrong, but most of those rallies were against what the government had done *for* people. OK, sure, some of those 'people' were banks, and who could be happy with that. But that was only a part of it. A major part was about *people* who had overextended themselves and were underwater in their mortgages, and oh my god why are we helping them. That's what I remember, anyway.
Just saying, this is a divide in our country that exists and it's not one we talk about a lot here.
I don't know how it relates to whether we're all fucked liked JVL says, or we will rise like the Phoenix as Sarah says.
Just saying I'm ok either way as long as I'm on this side of that
Yes, tupper. JVL, Tim, we . . . just. . . don't . . . know. I just came back from the Chicago rally. I've been giving to organizations in the fight. I even sent flowers to Cory Booker's Newark office. The fight is beginning. They may bring such disaster that we usher in a new era like FDR or JFK/LBJ. We just don't know, so in the meantime, I'm giving it one hell of a fucking fight.
I was happy to be at my first ever protest. Showing up was good.
great stuff, thanks as always…I dare say that I plumb some even deeper depths here
https://open.substack.com/pub/theinterestingtimes/p/its-probably-worse-than-you-think?r=j68s1&utm_medium=ios
That was profound, what I needed. I have sooo many thoughts, but too many bourbons down. I agree, America as we knew it is over. But I'll repeat my hope, which I expressed after the Secret, that we will have a collapse so catastrophic (read Turchin) that it changes the direction of society, and a new America emerges, like FDR and the New Deal. It will take a generation. I won't see it (I'm 82). But I have hope it will happen. The un-god bless you JVL and Tim for telling us the Truth.
Guys, I hate to break it to you but this didn’t happen overnight or in the past decade. Trump is not the reason America is not the greatest country in the world. Trump is just the proof that it isn’t and hasn’t been since probably FDR. And honestly, I don’t think we deserve to be right now.
A country that is capable of electing Trump twice, lags behind most developed nations in education, mortality, wealth inequality, and happiness and feels that it has the right to bully other countries or support war criminals just because it happens to have more money and bigger guns, probably does not deserve the title of “leader of the free world”.
As an immigrant, I totally agree with the notion that most Americans have no idea of how fortunate they are that they were either born here or were able to immigrate here legally when it was still mostly possible to do so. Americans are like husbands from the 1950’s who always expect there to be dinner waiting for them when they come home because there always has been dinner waiting for them when they came home. They never think about everything involved in harvesting potatoes or raising cows. They don’t think about how the food gets to the store or how much time and effort goes in to preparing them. They just expect it to be there.
Freedom and rights and democracy and rule of law and objective media are like that too. They don’t appear out of nowhere and they need people and time and effort to maintain. We never took the time do that. So maybe we can recover the title of “leader of the free world” or maybe not. But we don’t deserve jt unless we can prove to the world that we have what it takes to take the responsibility of that title seriously.
Peru it’s because I am an immigrant and can see think of an “American” as both “me” and “them”. But I don’t think it’s such a tragedy if Canada or Australia or some other country takes up that title for a while. I can imagine a life where my country’s culture and currency is not the dominant one. I lived that life and it wasn’t ideal but it was OK.
This isn’t the “end of America”. It’s just the end of “American Dominance” - at least for some time. But our plane’s not crashing. We’ll just have to move from first class to economy for a while. But we’ll survive. We’ll all get to the right destination in the end.
Give it to us straight.
You ended with what I believe will help us all find our way forward - our BELOVED America and I’m never giving up on my beautiful flawed homeland. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Can you please put the author and book title at the beginning in the show notes? Thanks.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Captive_Mind
Thank you!
Thanks, Tim and JVL - I needed to hear that others were feeling and thinking the same way I am. Can we trust the Democrats to rebuild this country when they can't even figure out why they lost twice to trump and why the people don't trust them?
Love the video. My current outlook is bleak and dark. Maybe when the last of the boomers die off, younger generations will create something new. Until then, if power swings between the 2 parties, we will fall into a 4 year cycle of trying to undo the last presidency and we just stay stagnant.
hey, boomer here... who took an oath to defend the constitution and then spent nineteen and a half years operating two nuclear submarines defending the american peoples' right to be... i'm not going to use sailer language... stupid...
i think the problem is that the two party system is failing... in the past no matter how uninformed, bigotted, nationalistic, or the-end-is-near christian the electorate was there was always a choice between two white men who were both incredibly egocentric and ambitious but didn't suffer from multiple malignant personality disorders... guys like he who shall remain unnamed were weeded out...
the republican party is already lost to the cult of [name redacted]... the dems, led by octogenerians or Nancy Peolosi clones (i'm being unfair to Hakeem, but who does he sound like to you?), and unwilling to give up the past, will just fade away...
Thank you for your service!
thank you for belonging to the bulwark...
Full transparency here - I am a just on the cusp of Boomer :)
ok, the young people can be angry with both of us then... but the sad truth is we have so much more in common with today's young people then they'll ever know...
i remember complaining about the dinosaurs pretending to be leaders who blundered us into the Vietnam war, and the liars who talked big about plans for peace with honor and then fucked us... oops, sorry... sailor talk...
It’s looking like younger generations are as bad if not worse than the boomers.
Thank you for saying what I've been thinking. One of the challenges of being neurodivergent is things that seem blindingly obvious to me are opaque to a huge part of the population. Everything that's happening now, I thought would happen in 2017, so my surprise is not that this is happening now, but that it took so long. What I'm seeing now is that the schism in this country is so huge there's no hope for a reconciliation that could make us a united nation once more.
I would be happy to fight with Sarah at a constitutional convention, because even though we disagree pretty fundamentally on policy, we don't disagree that there should be fairness, there should be justice, there should be the rule of law. That we should be kind and not cruel. But I'm not interested in any compromise with the likes of Mike Johnson, with the segragationists.
There is a fundamental wound in this country that we have never healed, that the powerful have never even considered a wound. I don't see how there can be any way forward with people who are unwilling to stipulate that every human being possess dignity and worth and that we are all equal. Every single one of us.
I don't have a clue how to solve that. "Split into two countries" doesn't really seem doable, but they don't want to be in a country with me any more than I want to be with them.
Do you Americans will face this kind of distress and not become violent towards each other ? A hungry man is an angry man …
Sarah is who I used to be. JVL and Tim are who I am now. Cautious pessimism is the new hotness.
It can’t happen here up until the point where it’s about to.
Or already has.
I think irresponsibility is the inevitable consequence of decadence and I think decadence is a consequence of our wealth and strength.
Put it another way we became victims of our own success. This has happened plenty of times to other countries, we’re not special in this regard. I think we may have just lucked out a bit here because there are other strong liberal countries to keep the flame burning.
That’s why I think this is an another “Sarah is always right.” Best case is - give it a decade or so and we’ll be rejoining our friends, a bit poorer, chastened, and a lot wiser.
Trump just broke the dollar system for good, it’s gonna screw up things for everyone, but most of all the cadre of fraudsters that supported Trump this time around. We’re going to have plenty of resources to rebuild afterwards and maybe in a generation or two we’ll manage to go back to the idealized great and good America that we want to see again.
Very well put!
https://youtu.be/2J7erJGlz4o?si=DdWanpVpM9YyalMn
Too many people in this country have zero clue as to what is happening right now and people that are aware just don't believe it and refuse to acknowledge it's even possible here. If the House/Senate don't wake the fuck up and start impeachments across the board . . . . ha, ha, ha, ha . . . choke, gag, wheeze. Maybe after the Measles kill people in power or face the plethora of arms people have here, and a freak weather event, and we are gravely ill because the FDA/EPA don't exist, and, and, and . . .
My resignation at our fall from world leadership and our transformation to international pariah does not diminish my will to fight injustice and continue my efforts to make things better. Facing the truth can be hard. But it is better to know what you are dealing with when you face life head on, than to be in denial. Truth shall set us free, but no one said it would be an quick or easy.
Couple observations. There was a time in our not so distant past when we cared what the world thought about us and it kept us from sinking too low. I'm thinking about the Civil Rights Era. Politicians worried how images of protestors being hosed and beaten was playing overseas. Perhaps, when our position changes in the world we'll be forced to care about that again which is to our benefit. Secondly. I would like to see a new constitutional convention get underway now. Reps from different walks of life should be gathering and remaking what we got wrong. The magic of America used to be its ability to remake itself. We should lean into that now.
If 9/11 couldn't bring us together other than in our paranoia, if COVID couldn't bring us together other than in our selfishness about having to wear a mask or forgo mass gatherings, what event is going to accomplish it? The stocks tanking, more nameless immigrants getting deported, elitist institutions getting slapped around? Cant see where there is ever going to be a meeting of the minds with the 35% die hard Trumpers.
This is where I am at too, unfortunately.
Rebuilding has nothing to do with consensus. Rebuilding is an individual act.
The tariffs are not about bringing back manufacturing. They're about getting more companies and countries to grovel to Trump for tariff exemptions in exchange for a pledge of total loyalty to him so they amplify his lies and Trump will never leave office. We're fucked.
What does a smaller (in influence) and poorer US look like? How do people live in that smaller and poorer US? The retreat from the world stage means things go on around us that we don't participate in. So what will we participate in instead?
Survival.
I was sitting in a restaurant in Croatia tonight and (as a native speaker of the regional language) overheard the people at the next table talking in Croatian:
“Trump is out playing GOLF today, the motherf***er”
The number of times the economy has crashed under Republicans and for Dems to be blamed 4 years later for the slow recovery does not give me much hope no matter how big the crash is nor how big the blue wave is.
What am I supposed to be taking from the slogan Hands Off? As an anti-abortion slogan, I could understand it -- women don't want laws affecting their choices about their bodies. But what are protesters trying to say today?
According to the Guardian, Jamie Raskin, a man I admire, said that today's demonstration was part of a "creative and nimble" strategy to "resist" Donald Trump. Here's an excerpt from the Guardian:Talking to the Guardian, he said mass protests needed to be combined with a “smart legislative strategy” to be effective. Studies of authoritarian regimes abroad had shown that a strategy of either mass protest or legislature resistance did work on their own, he said, in response to a question about the failure of demonstrations to unseat strongman leaders in countries like Hungary, Serbia and Turkey.
So in that excerpt there was an assertion of the power of protest in authoritarian countries. And this is true. In some authoritarian countries where people are repressed, breaking free of that repression and facing the consequences of protest have been effective, because it shows the seriousness of a mass of people willing to face dire consequences. In America, where we have long had the right of protest, protesting is just another thing people do, and doesn't necessarily carry a cost, making it a far less impactful act. People don't say Wow! when they see American protesters. They say What are they protesting about today? So let's be realistic about what protests in America can and cannot do.
And I really am curious about what Hands Off is supposed to convey to me.
What I saw today in Phoenix was that there were thousands of different signs and flags - room for lots of ideas. What sign would you bring? And don’t worry I’m very realistic about what American protests have done and will do! 🇺🇸
As a personal message, I'd bring three signs, one saying Law Creates Order, another Order Creates Peace, and another Peace Creates Stability, with a couple of friends to help hold them. It wouldn't make a good slogan though. 🙂 Too long.
I realized yesterday that for Canada, the Trump attacks and threats are in some ways like 9/11 for Americans or October 7th for Israelis. Obviously not in terms of deaths, but in the loss of a sense of security. They can no longer assume that they have a safe border to the south or that their most significant trading partner will be fair. Their very existence as a nation is being actively and plausibly threatened.
More like Ukraine - this is like the fall of 2021 for us right now.
Putting this right here because I've always been a fan of Toyota.
I know I've been harping on this a little about this on social media, but I am convinced this could bankrupt Tesla while giving media yet another reason to stop torturing us with Elon's fat face and creepy style. I still believe in this Toyota, but I feel nothing but fury at the coincidence of the timing of the tariffs by his Dementia Don. Trump is not even as sneaky as he thinks he is. Musk goes to a secret meeting at Toyota's headquarters, comes back, and declares that Toyota's car would be the death of Tesla. (Trump and Musk must really think Americans are complete idiots.)
Nevertheless, the car is truly brilliant on the part of Toyota. We are reading the price in the U.S. 2025 was MSRP of $37,070 on the XLE FWD grade, a reduction of nearly 14-percent. The XLE AWD grade’s MSRP starts at $39,150. Not sure what it will be with tariffs added.
🎆Here's the info on the new Toyota EV! 🎆
https://youtu.be/Kpr1OGGk20w?si=CWnCWc0DSTXOuZtK
I think until the red echo chamber is silenced, we will be a lost people.
I’ve seen posts to do a Tesla-style takedown of Fox as well as renewed talks of Fox advertiser boycotts. I do think they have to go before there’s a shot. (The Rogans, Bannons, Facebook, et al, too.)
Personal anecdote on foreign students:
My full-ride at a private university was directly funded by international students paying DOUBLE tuition to subsidize my impoverished ass.
This is largely true for undergraduate students, but graduate students are often fully funded, and receive a stipend, no matter their country of origin. Some foreign students even get extra spending money from their country.
OVER💯🤡
Miłosz was a Nobel laureate, and a professor in the US for years. Well worth a read. No self-exculpation, no excuses.
https://newcriterion.com/article/ambassador-of-dreams/
The mechanics of when our era is over, precisely when our bonds / debt is no good. That will cause interest rates to triple, gov spending cuts because we can’t borrow, unemployment skyrockets, markets will crash over 50%, and all the billionaires will flee to Dubai.
Well, here's something dark—a military coup. Does the US military have enough backbone to put an end to the madness and save democracy and the Constitution? If it's a choice of being flushed down the toilet with tRump or supporting a military that stops the bleeding, I'll choose the generals.
The Naval Academy just pulled 400 books because Hegseth was coming for a visit. Guess they were worried he’d get DEI vibes. So no, I’m not counting on the military.
Military is conservative top to bottom. They’re not overthrowing trump about money/stock market. So my bet is a Hard No.
In about 9 years, accelerated to light speed over the past 70+ days, Trump (w essential assist by clueless voters, a clueful but supine Republican Party, and a state-run media w Fox at its head) has destroyed the reputation and trustworthiness of America, economically and strategically.
We’ll be lucky to ever recover from the forces that produced Trump, and the destructive forces he is unleashing.
What country will want to develop deep trading and security relationships w us? No country with its eyes open. And we’ve opened all the eyes now.
The toxicity of Trump’s ‘leadership’ - which is only his will to dominate all humans and their wealth, goods, etc - is matched only by Hitler and perhaps Stalin, in more recent collective memory. Maybe Genghis Khan, I don’t know. But the effects could be as bad, if we use our imagination. He’s already threatened to bomb Iran, to take over Greenland and the Panama Canal, these things can start from relatively small incidents that escalate along fault lines of mistrust, fear and anger. And it doesn’t have to be armed conflict impulsively launched. We’ve already seen how Trump (mis)handled disease outbreak. We could get one of those, coupled w a Trump-based global depression. With only conspiracy quacks left in Trumpland to ‘guide’ us through the hellscape. All for want of imagination. And critical thinking:)
Right there with ya.
I think America is too big and too rich and too militarily powerful to be sidelined/become irrelevant/become just one power among many powers. THAT is too optimistic. I think it's more likely America becomes a source of global chaos, thrashing around like a deranged leviathan and causing great harm to many former allies and their peoples.
I’m worried about this too-
Worried about Silicon Valley fallout the most.
I wonder about the math here. We have so many Americans eligible to vote who don't bother to. If this craziness can activate those people "to vote the correct way," then we have a chance. Otherwise we are caught in the same math. Is there any example in history where voter turn out increased dramatically? If so what made that happen?
Check Wisconsin election this week, dramatic increase in turnout with even some normally Repub places voting for the key judge
It won’t play for me…🤔😅
Bringing back manufacturing jobs is just a convenient story that union leaders tell themselves to enable standing with Trump. If he wanted the tariffs to have that effect, they would be long term and predictable in order to change multi year capital budgets. But he can’t help using them for personal power by making them negotiable
I highly recommend the book The Wall by Marlen Haushofer. It’s the best dystopian novel IMO.
Yes. The age of America is over.
I think history will be hard on the Republican Party and Trump. I do think the 2024 election will be a before and after moment. The age of American greatness was 1945 to 2024. That said, l think Trump will be so catastrophic for many Americans that it will jolt people. The alternative bubbles during Covid allowed a false reality to be created. But you can't hide a crashed economy behind the Fox, Facebook bubble information systems. When people's 401K is devastated that will spur questions and shock. The Fuck Around and Find Out will ensnare everyone. Problem is it will be late.
Added stress will not improve people’s character. If they don’t have any in the relatively good times, they won’t magically find it in the bad times. They will be even more destructive and violent…as they were during COVID and with J6. The upper middle class MAGAs are entitled, bitter, and nasty.
Seeing the photos of protests in Florida was heartening. I’ll bet there are a lot of pissed off Floridian retirees right now. The Democratic Party down there had better get their shit together.
Thanks guys.
This totally sucks but I agree with you. I believe my mind has been circling around this concept for the last few days. Vaguely dancing and swirling just out of sight/mind.
As JVL says, America is a “decadent and foolish” society. Sadly it has come to that.
We kind of always been like that maybe? That’s what they said about Americans 80 years ago too
I am an old lady, so I can look back over many years. It seems to me the hateful dysfunction really amped up during the Clinton years with Newt Gingrich, Rush Limbaugh, Tom deLay and others making a scorched earth attack on all Democrats. Before that, we had statesmen, who worked together for the good of the country.
Those who we thought of as statesmen ( a term that I’ve been remembering fondly lately)… Are now viewed as weak.
That is so infortunate.
If (when) the US credit rating falls, to attract investment in our bonds the interest rate must be quite high. That prevents investment in new businesses and expansion of existing business. US “junk bonds” anyone?
Dark Tim is my favorite Tim.
I also like the FYTim, especially after the dude born after 9/11 put him in his mid-50s.
I agree with JVL that Pax Americana is over but I do believe we can recover and build something new but it will take a long time. France is on its Fifth Republic for example and managed to recover from The Vichy Regime & WWII.
JVL mentions (around the 5:24 mark) that we may be entering the *third* American Republic. I've not seen this classification before. Is the first Republic from 1776 to 1861 (Civil War), and the second from 1865 to 2024?
If so, I would quibble with this a bit. I think the second Republic ended in 1964 with the Civil Rights Act. The country became vastly different after that, when non-White Americans actually became full citizens.
So I think the third American Republic was from 1964 to 2024, and we are now entering the *fourth* American Republic. Of course, the MAGAs people are actually trying to revert the country back to second Republic, back before the Civil Rights Act, when America was Great.
Ah yes hope. A wonderful thing to keep you going in times of trouble. The hope that the faint light in the tunnel is daylight and not the oncoming train ready to grind you into the tracks.
Could there be an external shock that unites us, rather than further divides us? I think we need to think bigger than Covid and put our hope in alien invasion
How about a complete collapse of the environment or nuclear war? Will those do?
Let's just say, if we had a Red Dawn situation, a substantial portion of the country may back the Russkies.
I guess my only pushback here is that Trump could cause a severe backlash where the U.S. snaps back and even begins lowering barriers to trade.
Hi 😀
Just FYi you can delete double (or triple!) posts by click the dots on the upper right corner of any of them and select delete.
I don't think the Age of America is over. Our patterns in this country is to get knocked on our collective ass then get mad as hell and determined to right the wrong. We find our purpose Again and it is not making money at the cost of our soul. The purpose of America is to be a beacon of light in this world! It will be a fight and we do our best work in a fight. Remember where we came from and what it cost our ancestors! Now we muscle up, get Determined and start fighting on every front using every approach we can and be determined to think out of the box. Our politicians take their lead from us, not the other way around. I have seen the talent and determination on Substack so let's get going.
The problem is that politicians shouldn’t be taking the lead from voters on issues where they knew better and they have the responsibility to lead…but they did take the lead from voters on irrelevant cultural war stuff or misguided ideas fed to them from the internet that didn’t matter.
We need politicians who will listen to the people’s concerns and take them seriously but are also strong enough to tell them when they are wrong.
I agree. But since they did, the corrective is to call them out by name and often for the whole country to see and they will so sick of their blatant corruption that a revolution for their removal takes hold and builds momentum on its own to throw the bums out!!!
True! And it seems like they’re slowly beginning to fix both those errors - forced by “We the People”. These small nuggets of hope - the “Fight Oligarchy” tour, Chris Murphy making the rounds, Tim Walz dragging Musk like Kendrick and Cory Booker erasing a racist from the history books - not *just* for the “sake of doing something” but also taking accountability for his party not having done enough and really taking time to listen to and share voters’ stories.
I only caught the tail end of the marathon speech but I liked that one of the quotes he ended with was “the power of the people is always greater than the people in power”
It’s such a simple truth. They know it and we don’t so they spend all their time trying to convince that we’re helpless.
Exactly, the future starts now and we get to help write it!!!
How about a News Report with names and circumstances headed by names that are respected and willing to call them out mixed with the rest of us!! Mobilize on all fronts.