The Hour of Darkness Is Here
These are the times that try a nation’s soul.
1. Cope Kills
Over the last 48 hours various Democratic friends have told me that:
The polls are wrong.
Polling averages are skewed by garbage Republican polls.
The freakout is just a function of bored media people.
Early voter data shows that Harris is in good shape.
Harris going on Fox and (possibly) Joe Rogan’s podcast are signs of strength.
There’s a nub of truth in each of these. But on the whole, it’s whistling past the graveyard. Some #realtalk:
The polls show Kamala Harris way ahead of where Joe Biden was in July. So they must be at least directionally correct, yes?
There are a lot of D- and C-level polls out recently. But even the more discerning averages have Harris stuck below 50 percent.
We blame “The Media” because the alternative is blaming the voters, of whom some very large percentage affirmatively want Trump.
In 2016 Democrats were pumped about good early voting numbers in Florida. These did not hold up.
Harris would not be changing tactics if she were comfortably ahead. Also, she has been significantly better in speeches and debates than in hard-news interviews.
I’m not trying to panic you. I’m just saying that none of the “calm down, everything is fine” talk is especially persuasive.
Bottom line: The election is a coin toss. That’s bad.
Today I want to talk about two things:
(1) Why it’s a coin toss; and (2) Why, no matter what the outcome is, we’re forked.
With hindsight, you can squint and understand why the race tightened in 2016. Here’s the RCP average marked with the major campaign events of the final 12 weeks.
You have a quasi-health event for Clinton on September 11. Then there was the first debate, in which she crushed Trump, but didn’t gain much ground. Then the Access Hollywood tape hit and it turned out that no one cared—Trump’s support dropped only 2 points. And finally the Comey letter, which coincided with a surge for Trump. If you remember, Trump was also at his most normal during the final two weeks of 2016 and he ran a fairly disciplined campaign focused on economic grievance.
This interval wasn’t good for Trump, but at least it was a mixed bag for him.
Put that timeline against what we’re seeing today:
I don’t think Harris has had a single major stumble since coming online in late July. Seriously: What has been the low point of her campaign? Maybe the B- interview she did on CNN? Or that moment on The View where she said she wouldn’t have done anything differently from Biden?
This is a serious question: Describe for me the worst moment of the Harris campaign. Because the fact that we have to reach so far for something “bad” is an indication of how solid a campaign she’s run.
She’s nailed every big speech. She crushed the debate. And the final economic reports of the campaign—which used to be a big deal—have been universally positive. More job growth! Inflation down! Interest rates cut! Stock market surges! Low gas prices!1
At the same time, Trump has not been his most disciplined self. He’s done the eating dogs and cats stuff. He’s called for using the military against “the enemy within.” He’s doing weird dances and losing track of what he’s saying. He’s actually worse than he’s ever been, both morally and as a matter of mental/physical fitness for office.
And yet . . .
Harris is in slightly better shape than Clinton in 2016—but markedly worse shape that Biden in 2020.
Which suggests that unless we get a big event in the final three weeks, the dynamic is unlikely to change much. It doesn’t matter if Harris does well on Fox or bombs. If she goes on Rogan or doesn’t.
Voters think what they think.
If the stock market, interest rates, and inflation numbers haven’t moved them, then whether Harris gets an A- or a C+ with Brett Baier isn’t going to move them, either.
The cake is pretty much baked. It’s just that we have no idea what’s in it.
2. Bad Moon Rising
Let’s take it as given that a Trump victory would be bad for America. It would spark a long-term crisis in which everything from democracy to the rule of law to the international order are suddenly up for grabs.
But let’s pretend that Harris wins. In the long term, our prospects are certainly better. But in the short term it will create an immediate crisis.
Take a walk with me and imagine what the world looks like in the days and weeks following a Harris victory.