Kamala Harris had a great convention. She wiped the floor with Donald Trump at the debate. She has had a near perfect campaign. He has had a campaign that would sink anybody, anybody! (after everything he has said and done) So why does Harris have the same small national lead (2.5%) now as she had after the convention? Why is it simply a…
Kamala Harris had a great convention. She wiped the floor with Donald Trump at the debate. She has had a near perfect campaign. He has had a campaign that would sink anybody, anybody! (after everything he has said and done) So why does Harris have the same small national lead (2.5%) now as she had after the convention? Why is it simply a toss up? As a never ever Trumper from the jump, the only conclusion I come up with is that nothing Harris says or does help her. Conversely, nothing Trump says or does hurt him. The Walt Kelley line from Pogo is accurate. And so is Tom Nichol's; "We are not a serious nation". Hopefully, Kamala's ground game is the difference. Hopefully.
I told people right here on the Bulwark that I did not think that dumping Joe would make much difference in the polls. For many weeks afterwards I was correct. The Dem candidate and Trump kept pingponging in the polls. BUT I have noticed over the last few weeks a small by persistent lean towards Harris. Nevertheless it is still astounding that the Dem candidate (whoever it is, was) is (was) not ahead by double digits. Trump was always going to lose the popular vote. The only question that still remains is whether he can manage to slither through the Electoral College.
Had Biden stayed in, the election would have been a landslide for Trump. In Mn. and Virginia, Trump was even in two non competitive at the time and ahead in all the swing states.(within the margins) Harris has made headway in that she leads 2-3 points nationally. But it should not be a toss up. To alter James Carville's line: It is the voters stupid. (American voters that is, not you Terry!)
It was never going to be a landslide for Trump, Biden or no Biden. Trump was always going to lose the popular vote. As it turned out Biden's presence was an easy distraction from Trump even if there is actually nothing wrong with Biden's ability to do the job. Trump lost that distraction.
I hear you David. It dumbfounds me but the answer is pretty obvious: 45-47% of the country actively wants Trump and has wanted Trump since 2016. No matter what dem ran, or how they ran, or where they went, it was always going to end up here. It’s sad but it’s been pretty obvious for 2 years now
One thing that gives me optimism is that the Harris campaign seems to get it when it comes to the most effective way to campaign in 2024. She hasn't bought in too much to the nonsense that she needs to do lots of traditional interviews or talk more about policy and appears to be focusing on more modern ways of reaching people.
I have noticed that with each appearance is followed by a lot of overanalysis. She is going to appear on a CNN townhall that was going to be a debate. Apparently FOX has preposed another debate.(with no audience) I think she should even try that. At this point, she has nothing left to loser so go with it.
Kamala Harris had a great convention. She wiped the floor with Donald Trump at the debate. She has had a near perfect campaign. He has had a campaign that would sink anybody, anybody! (after everything he has said and done) So why does Harris have the same small national lead (2.5%) now as she had after the convention? Why is it simply a toss up? As a never ever Trumper from the jump, the only conclusion I come up with is that nothing Harris says or does help her. Conversely, nothing Trump says or does hurt him. The Walt Kelley line from Pogo is accurate. And so is Tom Nichol's; "We are not a serious nation". Hopefully, Kamala's ground game is the difference. Hopefully.
I told people right here on the Bulwark that I did not think that dumping Joe would make much difference in the polls. For many weeks afterwards I was correct. The Dem candidate and Trump kept pingponging in the polls. BUT I have noticed over the last few weeks a small by persistent lean towards Harris. Nevertheless it is still astounding that the Dem candidate (whoever it is, was) is (was) not ahead by double digits. Trump was always going to lose the popular vote. The only question that still remains is whether he can manage to slither through the Electoral College.
Had Biden stayed in, the election would have been a landslide for Trump. In Mn. and Virginia, Trump was even in two non competitive at the time and ahead in all the swing states.(within the margins) Harris has made headway in that she leads 2-3 points nationally. But it should not be a toss up. To alter James Carville's line: It is the voters stupid. (American voters that is, not you Terry!)
It was never going to be a landslide for Trump, Biden or no Biden. Trump was always going to lose the popular vote. As it turned out Biden's presence was an easy distraction from Trump even if there is actually nothing wrong with Biden's ability to do the job. Trump lost that distraction.
I hear you David. It dumbfounds me but the answer is pretty obvious: 45-47% of the country actively wants Trump and has wanted Trump since 2016. No matter what dem ran, or how they ran, or where they went, it was always going to end up here. It’s sad but it’s been pretty obvious for 2 years now
Applying logic to American voters is fruitless.
One thing that gives me optimism is that the Harris campaign seems to get it when it comes to the most effective way to campaign in 2024. She hasn't bought in too much to the nonsense that she needs to do lots of traditional interviews or talk more about policy and appears to be focusing on more modern ways of reaching people.
I have noticed that with each appearance is followed by a lot of overanalysis. She is going to appear on a CNN townhall that was going to be a debate. Apparently FOX has preposed another debate.(with no audience) I think she should even try that. At this point, she has nothing left to loser so go with it.