The Polls *Are Not* Underestimating Trump This Time
We have good data on his ceiling. He’s already near it.
1. No Fear
One of the persistent concerns about the race is that in 2016 and 2020, polling somewhat underestimated Donald Trump’s final vote share.
This is what keeps us up at night. The polling on Harris-Trump is already very close. What if it’s still underestimating his support levels?
I decided to poke around this question and what I found was unsettling because . . . it’s good news. The more I looked, the more it appears that Trump’s poll numbers right now are his real numbers. Meaning that Harris’s polling lead is small, but real.
What’s more: It seems unlikely that Trump has much room left to grow, while Harris has a couple points still available to her.
In other words: Trump is at or near his ceiling. Harris is not.
Brace yourselves for optimism.
I know. I don’t like it either.