I am sitting at my desk in my summer home on a lake in Wisconsin.
As I type a "Trump Boat Parade" is circling around the lake. The way it works here one boat starts and goes around the lake blaring a horn and over successive trips around the lake others join in the parade. Some have flags and some do not. They continue circling, waving flags, tooting horns until it seems no one else is joining in. Then some go home back to their docks and piers and others dock down by the local bar and restaurant for brandy old fashioneds and the traditional Friday night fish fry.
I suspect this will happen every Friday until sometime after Labor Day as it did in 2020.
Nothing that any of us worry about enters their minds. This is probably the high point of their lives that they will tell their grandchildren about in a decade or so. They are having fun. D H Lawrence wrote a poem once called "The Sane Revolution" it begins:
"If you make a revolution, make it for fun,
don't make it in ghastly seriousness,
don't do it in deadly earnest,
do it for fun."
And this is the secret sauce of MAGA and when the dour liberals knit their brows and tap their desk in concern (as Rachel Maddow does so exquisitely) they feel they have won. And it is fun. This is a social revolution.
And establishment institutionalists like us are the actual conservatives trying to hold things together and THEY are the revolutionaries saying they are done with us. They don't really care what comes after the flood things might be better for them, or things could be worse, but no matter what--- things will be different.
Mitchell Joseph Landrieu is an American lawyer and politician who served as Mayor of New Orleans from 2010 to 2018. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously served as Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana from 2004 to 2010. Wikipedia. Think Michaell Avanatti sans the criminal element.
I see the rock and the hard place we find ourselves between. The world-wide anti-incumbent bias is real and applies to both Biden and Harris. If Biden steps aside I really think Harris would face an uphill battle to win over moderates who had more common cause with Biden.
However, nominating anyone else risks losing the enthusiastic support of key Dem constituencies that are essential for a successful campaign. If someone like Wes Moore or someone outside the current DC crowd were the nominee and had unified wide-spread support that would be an option, but I see no one with that kind of support. Trump is beatable for sure but the rock and the hard place are both bearing down on us.
I think your heads are in the sand if you anyone but Biden can win the election. Again, Biden wins, if he dies Kamala Harris becomes president. She is qualified, but a woman and a woman of color is unlikely to win over orange man. Democrat congressmen are such wimps, cowering trying to decide who they think can win. Stand behind the proven leader. Campaign, expose 2025, educate voters what the future will look like under orange man.
I think the debate debacle would have been old news by now and Biden would be moving on. However, due to the public comments made by people in his party demanding his withdrawal from the race I am reluctantly beginning to realize there is no path forward for him. These folks have inflicted far more damage than the debate, or attacks from the Republicans could have ever done. With friends like these...........
Rising star governors have no incentive run. They think—I hope they’re right!—they’ll have a better shot. Plus, competing against Harris could be taken the wrong way by identity voters, which could be death to rising-star aspirations. I wish there could be a competitive, open convention that would give the winner an aura of victory, but I don’t think it will happen. But we are in uncharted waters so anything can happen.
How some feel in the future shouldn't be a stumbling block now. That's a 'luxury' concern. We have a 'hot' fire to put out. The incentives should be obvious...save James Madison's genius piece of legal and moral philosophy.
I think people such as Whitmer and/or Shapiro might feel a twinge of duty, rather than self interest when the stakes are this high. If they don't, then they may not be the 'ones.' Serving a higher purpose sometimes brings out the best in people.
There's just not time, this time, to be taking a poll of feelings.
The fence sitters that are left want youth, vigor, compassion, and most of all a strong demeanor. The D's have a good stable.
Stop Trump and we'll sort the identity groups out next year.
Does anyone get the feeling that the comment section here on the bulwark has turned into group therapy? I think it's good and I think it says something.
Pastors of propaganda, mythology of the masses, purveyors of poop that is popular and palatable. They all have childish answers to complex problems and are shockingly wrong.
The old GOP was a sometimes-awkward alliance of classical liberals and soft libertarians with religious-social conservatives. There was friction on policy, of course, but serious people endeavored to unify it all under the concept of "ordered liberty."
The new GOP is a bizarre juxtaposition of overt moral impunity and oppositional defiance, barstool bros, fight-club culture, and celebration of a porn star, on the one hand, with radical Christian nationalists who want to ban porn and birth control, and basically repeal the Establishment clause to impose a quasi-theocracy on America.
The unifying element is glorification of Donald Trump as the towering hero, or the Anointed One. Religious conservatives made a pragmatic -- i.e., cynical -- choice to rally around a conspicuously amoral man as their weapon against their enemies, and he found it beneficial to himself to give them things they wanted. Others rallied around Trump because they admire his indifference to rules and norms, and his ability to get away with doing whatever he wants to.
In between, there are self-described Christians who might rail against some sin or other but don't appear to attach much importance to practicing Christian virtues themselves.
But has anyone developed a political philosophy that links the ethos of Hulk Hogan and Amber Rose with that of Kevin Roberts?
Well, so far no one who demands that Biden step down from his primary-mandated candidacy has provided a clear path to that purpose. Questions unanswered abound, such as:
-- Must Biden abdicate the Presidency if he removes himself from nomination by the Democratic Party for President?
-- Has anyone named as a possible (probable?) replacement (Harris, Shapiro, Whitmer, etc., et al) stepped up to the bar publicly?
-- Can Democrats who ran against, and were soundly defeated by, Biden in the Democratic Party primaries (Phillips, Williamson, Palmer) be considered as Biden's replacement?
-- What procedures has the DNC for such a replacement action?
Yes there's been quite a bit of discussion on these topics. And it's been easy to find online. One example is in the comment immediately preceding yours. It may not discuss every question you have from exactly the angle you prefer, but the point is: yes, people have been grappling with this for some time now, and suggesting plausible, even promising, solutions.
Yes, I know that people - good people - are grappling with this situations and I know that - here, at least - their discussions and comments are rational and reasonable. The quandary, for me, is that there's no apparent path for Democrats to defeat and soundly reject the Republicans this November. I feel that this goal requires several clear and coordinated paths to be taken, regardless of who winds up at the top of the Democratic Party ticket. Of this I am not yet confident although I am completely committed to voting against every Republican I find on the ballot offered in my voting district.
Yeah, this *is* the Democrats we're talking about ... hoping they'll be worried enough to keep some discipline on this! e.g. not go all negative on each other if they choose the "audition" or "open convention" route.
Re: what's the alternative if Biden steps down -- here's the best summary I've seen so far of the options. Because of the way it's published there's no easy way to guest-link to it so I'll paste in the whole essay:
The Smartest Way for Democrats to Choose Another Nominee
Jonathan Alter, New York Times, July 19, 2024
As Democrats hear rumors about President Biden withdrawing his candidacy, they are slowly crawling out of the fetal position. If he steps aside, what should they do when they are fully upright and ready to move? The party has three options:
Coronation: Short on time and battered by its divisions over whether Biden should have been the nominee, the 4,000 delegates quickly close ranks around Vice President Kamala Harris.
Audition: Candidates approved by Biden and Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama appear in six town hall meetings in two weeks, with the proviso that they stick to laying out their visions instead of attacking one another. This would be followed by remote balloting in mid-August, just before the opening of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
Open convention: Leading candidates give speeches on the opening night of the convention, followed by intense politicking and live, suspenseful balloting.
I favor an audition. Here’s why:
In the event of Biden’s withdrawal, Harris would be the strong front-runner. She is next in line, already vetted and much improved as a candidate. As a former prosecutor, she could amass the evidence against Donald Trump and make an especially strong case on reproductive rights.
At the same time, it would be a bad look for a small number of party insiders to engineer Harris’s nomination without giving the public some say in the process. Harris would be a stronger candidate this fall if she impressed Democratic voters in town hall meetings. Having been handed the vice-presidential nomination in 2020, she should earn the top spot this time.
Even if Harris got every important endorsement and was the presumptive nominee, she should still address state delegations and make TV appearances with a few other contenders. It would hone her debate skills and give her and the voters a chance to kick the tires on possible vice-presidential nominees.
And if one of the rivals should outshine her and open up a bigger lead than she had against Trump in the polls? Well, in that case, delegates would be duty bound to at least consider nominating that candidate.
Given the electoral map, delegates should take a hard look at popular battleground-state candidates for both positions on the ballot: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan (has a strong record and a powerful stump speech), Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania (skillfully frames issues and has the backing of a third of Trump supporters in his state) and Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona (is a former astronaut with personal experience with gun violence). Throw in Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia (is an eloquent moderate) and Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky (matches up well with J.D. Vance), and you have a galvanizing set of choices.
Finally, an open convention wouldn’t be smart because, while exciting, it would deprive the party of three nights of pressing the case against Trump and the Republicans. And by then, all of us would have had enough drama and suspense to last a lifetime.
I must confess, I didn’t watch a moment of the convention, and haven’t been paying much attention to the cable bobbleheads analysis either. Clearly it would have been hours of my life I’ll never get back.
That said, I’m focused on what happens with the democrats this weekend. Will Biden stay or go? This will make or break the election.
The cabal behind the Republican party wants to enjoy all the spoils of a de facto dictatorship!
The cabal behind the Republican party wants to enjoy all the spoils of a de facto dictatorship!
I am sitting at my desk in my summer home on a lake in Wisconsin.
As I type a "Trump Boat Parade" is circling around the lake. The way it works here one boat starts and goes around the lake blaring a horn and over successive trips around the lake others join in the parade. Some have flags and some do not. They continue circling, waving flags, tooting horns until it seems no one else is joining in. Then some go home back to their docks and piers and others dock down by the local bar and restaurant for brandy old fashioneds and the traditional Friday night fish fry.
I suspect this will happen every Friday until sometime after Labor Day as it did in 2020.
Nothing that any of us worry about enters their minds. This is probably the high point of their lives that they will tell their grandchildren about in a decade or so. They are having fun. D H Lawrence wrote a poem once called "The Sane Revolution" it begins:
"If you make a revolution, make it for fun,
don't make it in ghastly seriousness,
don't do it in deadly earnest,
do it for fun."
And this is the secret sauce of MAGA and when the dour liberals knit their brows and tap their desk in concern (as Rachel Maddow does so exquisitely) they feel they have won. And it is fun. This is a social revolution.
And establishment institutionalists like us are the actual conservatives trying to hold things together and THEY are the revolutionaries saying they are done with us. They don't really care what comes after the flood things might be better for them, or things could be worse, but no matter what--- things will be different.
I nominate Mitch Landreau.
Mitchell Joseph Landrieu is an American lawyer and politician who served as Mayor of New Orleans from 2010 to 2018. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously served as Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana from 2004 to 2010. Wikipedia. Think Michaell Avanatti sans the criminal element.
I see the rock and the hard place we find ourselves between. The world-wide anti-incumbent bias is real and applies to both Biden and Harris. If Biden steps aside I really think Harris would face an uphill battle to win over moderates who had more common cause with Biden.
However, nominating anyone else risks losing the enthusiastic support of key Dem constituencies that are essential for a successful campaign. If someone like Wes Moore or someone outside the current DC crowd were the nominee and had unified wide-spread support that would be an option, but I see no one with that kind of support. Trump is beatable for sure but the rock and the hard place are both bearing down on us.
I think your heads are in the sand if you anyone but Biden can win the election. Again, Biden wins, if he dies Kamala Harris becomes president. She is qualified, but a woman and a woman of color is unlikely to win over orange man. Democrat congressmen are such wimps, cowering trying to decide who they think can win. Stand behind the proven leader. Campaign, expose 2025, educate voters what the future will look like under orange man.
I think the debate debacle would have been old news by now and Biden would be moving on. However, due to the public comments made by people in his party demanding his withdrawal from the race I am reluctantly beginning to realize there is no path forward for him. These folks have inflicted far more damage than the debate, or attacks from the Republicans could have ever done. With friends like these...........
Really? Well, it was thinking an awful lot like this that put Nixon in the White House in 1969.
Hello, Vlad? Don here. Listen, Vlad, you can have Ukraine. Yup, no problem.
Hi, Xi. Don speaking, how've you been? Yeah, me too. So the reason I'm calling is to tell you that you're welcome to Taiwan.
Just so there's no misunderstanding with you boys, though, I'm taking Canada.
Re' Kamala - I have concerns that a lot of people made up their minds about her years ago, and are not interested in reviewing their opinion.
She has room to grow her support. Biden does not. I'll take Kamala's negatives over Biden's any day of the week. Biden isn't going to get younger.
Having said that, are there other Ds who would be better than Kamala. Absolutely. Probably can't get them nominated though.
Why not? I'd appreciate your rationale.
Rising star governors have no incentive run. They think—I hope they’re right!—they’ll have a better shot. Plus, competing against Harris could be taken the wrong way by identity voters, which could be death to rising-star aspirations. I wish there could be a competitive, open convention that would give the winner an aura of victory, but I don’t think it will happen. But we are in uncharted waters so anything can happen.
How some feel in the future shouldn't be a stumbling block now. That's a 'luxury' concern. We have a 'hot' fire to put out. The incentives should be obvious...save James Madison's genius piece of legal and moral philosophy.
I think people such as Whitmer and/or Shapiro might feel a twinge of duty, rather than self interest when the stakes are this high. If they don't, then they may not be the 'ones.' Serving a higher purpose sometimes brings out the best in people.
There's just not time, this time, to be taking a poll of feelings.
The fence sitters that are left want youth, vigor, compassion, and most of all a strong demeanor. The D's have a good stable.
Stop Trump and we'll sort the identity groups out next year.
Does anyone get the feeling that the comment section here on the bulwark has turned into group therapy? I think it's good and I think it says something.
Huh, not been my experience, but, then, I have an unpopular view and those aren't allowed now by many who have went out of their way to tell me so.
Kid Rock Hulk Hogan. Dana White.
Maybe they should consult Ringling Bros. about where to hold the next convention.
Don't forget Franklin Graham in that lineup. Maybe not as out-of-place as respectable people would like to think. Good thing I'm not respectable!
Pastors of propaganda, mythology of the masses, purveyors of poop that is popular and palatable. They all have childish answers to complex problems and are shockingly wrong.
Well said
"He's entertaining" is a line that the MAGA base always used as a retort to criticism of Trump's sociopathic lunacy.
You mean, like "Hannibal Lecter " is "entertaining?
He mentioned him again in the speech.
Apparently those awful immigrants aren't just rapists, murderers, drug dealers and insane - they're also cannibals.
I just don't know where they find the time - I have trouble squeezing in a visit for a pedicure. . .
First-class entertainment.
When I first saw Dana White was speaking, my mind went to Vanna White. 🤣 Which would also be on-brand for Trump.
They are the guest pastors at the Church of Trump the Elder.
“Spellbinding?” C’mon, Andrew. I couldn’t believe how melodramatic it was, from the first sentence. All Trump needed was a violin in the background.
The old GOP was a sometimes-awkward alliance of classical liberals and soft libertarians with religious-social conservatives. There was friction on policy, of course, but serious people endeavored to unify it all under the concept of "ordered liberty."
The new GOP is a bizarre juxtaposition of overt moral impunity and oppositional defiance, barstool bros, fight-club culture, and celebration of a porn star, on the one hand, with radical Christian nationalists who want to ban porn and birth control, and basically repeal the Establishment clause to impose a quasi-theocracy on America.
The unifying element is glorification of Donald Trump as the towering hero, or the Anointed One. Religious conservatives made a pragmatic -- i.e., cynical -- choice to rally around a conspicuously amoral man as their weapon against their enemies, and he found it beneficial to himself to give them things they wanted. Others rallied around Trump because they admire his indifference to rules and norms, and his ability to get away with doing whatever he wants to.
In between, there are self-described Christians who might rail against some sin or other but don't appear to attach much importance to practicing Christian virtues themselves.
But has anyone developed a political philosophy that links the ethos of Hulk Hogan and Amber Rose with that of Kevin Roberts?
“When the facts conflict with. . . sacred values, almost everyone finds a way to stick with their values and reject the evidence.”
-J. Haidt
"The trickle of Democratic lawmakers publicly calling for change atop their 2024 ticket continues to grow to a stream..."
Well, that's a powerful allusion, if ever there was one. It reminds me of something from the past...
https://youtu.be/PDP245bQ6Fk?si=V_EMvgCuB1kW3nvJ
Right: "It's the principle of the thing."
Well, so far no one who demands that Biden step down from his primary-mandated candidacy has provided a clear path to that purpose. Questions unanswered abound, such as:
-- Must Biden abdicate the Presidency if he removes himself from nomination by the Democratic Party for President?
-- Has anyone named as a possible (probable?) replacement (Harris, Shapiro, Whitmer, etc., et al) stepped up to the bar publicly?
-- Can Democrats who ran against, and were soundly defeated by, Biden in the Democratic Party primaries (Phillips, Williamson, Palmer) be considered as Biden's replacement?
-- What procedures has the DNC for such a replacement action?
Just asking...
Yes there's been quite a bit of discussion on these topics. And it's been easy to find online. One example is in the comment immediately preceding yours. It may not discuss every question you have from exactly the angle you prefer, but the point is: yes, people have been grappling with this for some time now, and suggesting plausible, even promising, solutions.
Yes, I know that people - good people - are grappling with this situations and I know that - here, at least - their discussions and comments are rational and reasonable. The quandary, for me, is that there's no apparent path for Democrats to defeat and soundly reject the Republicans this November. I feel that this goal requires several clear and coordinated paths to be taken, regardless of who winds up at the top of the Democratic Party ticket. Of this I am not yet confident although I am completely committed to voting against every Republican I find on the ballot offered in my voting district.
Yeah, this *is* the Democrats we're talking about ... hoping they'll be worried enough to keep some discipline on this! e.g. not go all negative on each other if they choose the "audition" or "open convention" route.
100% with you on "committed to voting"!
Re: what's the alternative if Biden steps down -- here's the best summary I've seen so far of the options. Because of the way it's published there's no easy way to guest-link to it so I'll paste in the whole essay:
The Smartest Way for Democrats to Choose Another Nominee
Jonathan Alter, New York Times, July 19, 2024
As Democrats hear rumors about President Biden withdrawing his candidacy, they are slowly crawling out of the fetal position. If he steps aside, what should they do when they are fully upright and ready to move? The party has three options:
Coronation: Short on time and battered by its divisions over whether Biden should have been the nominee, the 4,000 delegates quickly close ranks around Vice President Kamala Harris.
Audition: Candidates approved by Biden and Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama appear in six town hall meetings in two weeks, with the proviso that they stick to laying out their visions instead of attacking one another. This would be followed by remote balloting in mid-August, just before the opening of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
Open convention: Leading candidates give speeches on the opening night of the convention, followed by intense politicking and live, suspenseful balloting.
I favor an audition. Here’s why:
In the event of Biden’s withdrawal, Harris would be the strong front-runner. She is next in line, already vetted and much improved as a candidate. As a former prosecutor, she could amass the evidence against Donald Trump and make an especially strong case on reproductive rights.
At the same time, it would be a bad look for a small number of party insiders to engineer Harris’s nomination without giving the public some say in the process. Harris would be a stronger candidate this fall if she impressed Democratic voters in town hall meetings. Having been handed the vice-presidential nomination in 2020, she should earn the top spot this time.
Even if Harris got every important endorsement and was the presumptive nominee, she should still address state delegations and make TV appearances with a few other contenders. It would hone her debate skills and give her and the voters a chance to kick the tires on possible vice-presidential nominees.
And if one of the rivals should outshine her and open up a bigger lead than she had against Trump in the polls? Well, in that case, delegates would be duty bound to at least consider nominating that candidate.
Given the electoral map, delegates should take a hard look at popular battleground-state candidates for both positions on the ballot: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan (has a strong record and a powerful stump speech), Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania (skillfully frames issues and has the backing of a third of Trump supporters in his state) and Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona (is a former astronaut with personal experience with gun violence). Throw in Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia (is an eloquent moderate) and Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky (matches up well with J.D. Vance), and you have a galvanizing set of choices.
Finally, an open convention wouldn’t be smart because, while exciting, it would deprive the party of three nights of pressing the case against Trump and the Republicans. And by then, all of us would have had enough drama and suspense to last a lifetime.
I must confess, I didn’t watch a moment of the convention, and haven’t been paying much attention to the cable bobbleheads analysis either. Clearly it would have been hours of my life I’ll never get back.
That said, I’m focused on what happens with the democrats this weekend. Will Biden stay or go? This will make or break the election.
Wow....only 12 years ago Clint Eastwood and his empty chair was the topic of conversation......now....not much conversation.