No Secret podcast today. This stuff is as serious as a heart attack, so Sarah and I sat down with Tim and did an emergency pod for the flagship instead. We didn’t want it hidden behind a paywall. The moment is too important.
That conversation will be on the main podcast feed shortly and there won’t be a Secret show today.
We’re going all the way to midnight, so strap in. This is a hard conversation and we need to have it, with respect. I know you’ll do your part in the comments.
1. No Rationalizations
Let’s stipulate to a bunch of truths:
Debating is easy when you are allowed to lie with utter impunity.
Donald Trump’s mendacity and cognitive impairments were striking, even by his own standards.
CNN committed malpractice.1
Joe Biden clearly had a cold.
Maybe two weeks from now head-to-head polling will show that the debate didn’t matter.
We often over-weight events in the moment.
All of that said: Biden’s debate performance was catastrophic. It not only validated the biggest concern voters have about him—it also suggested that he is incapable of waging a vigorous campaign.
It would be irresponsible if President Biden, his wife, Valerie Biden, Kamala Harris, Ron Klain, Anita Dunn, Hakeem Jeffries, Chuck Schumer, and every other major figure in Democratic politics did not have a serious, candid, and ongoing conversation over the next 48 hours about Biden’s ability to serve as his party’s presidential nominee.
Because here is the bedrock fact: The Democratic party has been asked to save our country’s democracy. Again.
2. Both Sides?
Can you point to a single person anywhere in Republican politics or Conservatism Inc. who watched Trump’s performance last night and is now suggesting that he be replaced on the ticket?
I ask, because Trump spoke in non sequiturs.2 To call his lies a stream would be an insult to the mighty Mississippi.
Trump is—objectively—unfit for office. He is insurrectionist and a felon. He cannot answer simple questions.
Yet nowhere in the Republican party does there exist a single person standing up today to say, “Something must be done. We cannot let this man be our nominee.”
So the Republican party isn’t going to save democracy.
But we knew that. What has become clear over the months is that none of our other institutions will, either.
The Supreme Court has done everything in its power to delay criminal proceedings against Trump.
The supposedly nonpartisan trial court in Florida has likewise acted as an arm of the Trump campaign.
Much of the mainstream media—including and especially CNN—treated Trump as a normal political figure and bent over both forwards and backwards to avoid even the appearance that they might prefer democracy to authoritarianism.3
The business community has treated Trump and Trumpism with a deference that resembles a perverted version of Pascal’s wager.
And The People? Don’t even get me started on The People.
So it’s up to the Democratic party.
The Democratic party must have the painful conversations and consider previously unthinkable courses that will be fraught with risk.
The Democratic party will have to rally, as an institution, to save a country that—let’s be honest—might not even be worthy of saving.
Just like the Democratic party did in 2020.4
Real Talk: This is too much to ask of a political party. Parties are sprawling, amorphous, institutions with competing incentives and constituencies. A political party is not, just as a matter of nuts and bolts, well suited to repelling an authoritarian attempt from outside its own walls.
And it is not fair that this burden has been passed to the Democratic party by all of our other failed institutions.
But fair’s got nothing to do with it.
Again: If the Bidens and Kamala Harris and Hakeem Jeffries and other Democrats do not instigate a stone-cold serious conversation about having the president step aside, then they will be failing America.
More Real Talk: The Bulwark is one of the few places where these kinds of hard conversations can happen. No one here is polishing turds or gaslighting. We are looking at the real world with clear eyes and full hearts. We are here not for a team, but for our country.
If you’ve ever wanted to be with us before, then today is the day to join. Become a member. And if you can’t afford a membership for whatever reason, just email me and we’ll work something out. You can’t save democracy from behind a paywall and you don’t build a community by excluding people just because they can’t swing it financially.
It’s going to be a long, hard 129 days. Let’s go through it together.
3. Two Paths
What if there is no good answer?
It is possible that Biden’s debate performance was a mortal wound and that having Kamala Harris, or Josh Shapiro, or Gavin Newsom as the nominee would result in an even lower win probability.
I’m open to that argument.
But it’s an argument that Democrats ought to be having right now. They should be running the traps. Looking at how campaign structures would work. Doing a boatload of polls and focus groups. Figuring out what the money situation would be.
Can the logistical hurdles be overcome? What would a brokered convention look like? And those are all questions that have to be answered even before you get to who the alternative nominee would be and how the party could build consensus around her or him.
And if the conclusion is that it’s not possible to move forward with another candidate, then the Democratic party has to figure out something. Because this is not a steady-as-she-goes moment.
It’s a crisis.
In the comments today, I’d like you to talk through [gestures broadly] all of this. Be your most kind and thoughtful selves. Don’t lash out. Consider all sides. Begin from the proposition that whatever your instinct is here, you might be wrong.
That’s certainly where I am right now.
Correction (June 28, 2024, 3:50 p.m. EDT): As originally published, this newsletter mistakenly gave the wrong name for Joe Biden’s former chief of staff and adviser; he is Ron Klain, not Andy Card.
The second question of the night was about debt and deficits. January 6th didn’t come up until 39 minutes in. Jake Tapper allowed Trump to say that a story Tapper himself reported was false.
Trump stated that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war even before taking office and CNN did not think to ask, “How?”
Trump was not asked a single question about the three felony cases pending against him. Or presidential immunity. Or his lies about winning the 2020 election.
A few weeks ago Trump asserted that President Biden had attempted to have him assassinated. CNN did not see fit to ask him about it.
“They [NATO] were going out of business,” he said at one point. What does that mean?
When the history of this moment is written, CNN and the New York Times will deserve their own small sections.
And an assortment of responsible voters.
It’s late Sunday evening, nope it’s now after midnight. I have consumed everything from sane publications and watched CNN and MsNBc. Have avoids the right winging networks and write ups.
If the media is correct, Biden is not going to step aside. if that is true, it is almost impossible to replace him and attempting to do so will cause more problems than worth it. Not to mention that there is no hero sitting by ready to come. Everybody we can think of , polls worse.
Don’t have a lot of desire or time to analyze for more than a minute why the Biden’s don’t seem to see what we do, but I strongly believe it has to do with dead son Beau who wanted Joe to run.
So , a reminder that the GOP , after the acccess Hollywood tapes took about 3 days to come back to Trump. They now are fully behind in every way their 34 convicted felon, a man found liable for multiple serious business frauds, found liable for sexual assault and defamation and will likely be convicted of more serious cases if we are given the chance to prosecute him. He is going to surround himself with criminals and sycophants , none of whom have an ounce of concern for the USA. Competence will no longer be required, but loyalty to the crook in chief will be job number one. Hundreds of thousands of competent and loyal to the country public servants will be fired, replaced with incompetent loyalists.
Women , LGBTQ, journalists critical of this Maga god will face persecution and loss of rights. Bowing before war criminals like Putin will be r required.
I don’t know if people realize how much the country will change.
So , in my mind, we have 1 choice- rally behind our guy- a decent human being who is old and not at his best but loves America and will be surrounding himself with competent people who also love America. Our guy maybe should have not run and made the decision a yr ago but he did not.
So we can moan about this or get to work, dammit. I am getting to work. I can send money to get out the vote organizations, answer phones , mail stuff. Others can walk the beats . There is something we all can do.
We’ve had our weekend to cry and I did.
Now, work. Send money . Do what you can - drive someone who has never voted to the booths. Help educate them.
But we can not lay down and let them walk through all victorious without fighting back. They think this is in the bag.
We are gonna do what they do- rally around our guy. And that needs to start today.
Yup, my post is la-la land but hey, the last nine years has been so here goes.....
With respect to replacing Biden......well, here's a fun idea:
In turbulent times, truth can be a dear friend.
If Biden has mental health challenges the truth is his best friend, the Democratic party’s best friend and democracy’s best friend.
Here’s how:
Biden needs to tell the truth to the American electorate regarding his health.
What 50 million voters witnessed Thursday night was not a cold. Such brazen spin is insulting and reckless. We the people are big enough to be told the truth, and we deserve nothing but the truth, so tell it.
At the same time, all donors but especially big donors, need to turn the donation spigot off as a safety measure to nudge the president for old fashion soul searching.
Biden can embrace the truth and weave it into a narrative that helps the country, the party and his legacy.
Biden saved the country from Trump in 2020.
Biden was a damn good president for four years.
He rolled up his sleeves for the Trump 2024 rematch but due to sudden pressing health concerns it was in the best interest of the country and his life to pull out of the race just before the convention.
Biden could then gracefully not only commit his delegates to an open convention but his unwavering support as well and be a vital part of the campaign up until November 5th.
He could commit his delegates with the understanding that in doing so he and the DNC would pick six initial candidates to “run” for president in July.
After each debate delegates and superdelegates would vote for one candidate to be dismissed from the next debate but all six candidates would be the potential vice presidential candidates. Yes, there's intentional Apprentice irony here - that's why this is so sweet.
There would be five national debates:
July 8th - six candidates
July 12th - five candidates
July 23rd - four candidates
July 26th - three candidates
August 1st - two candidates
August 5th and 6th - zoom virtual convention with the two final candidates with Biden in Philadelphia on August 5th and in Phoenix on August 6th. In each city the two candidates along with Biden would give speeches.
The delegates vote virtually for the nominee by 10 PM EST. At that time the two candidates and President Biden would be in Las Vegas when the nominee is announced.
On August 7th the presidential nominee meets the Ohio August 7th deadline.
Democratic National Convention - Chicago - August 19th - August 22nd
All five candidates speak -at the convention with the understanding that one of them will be chosen as the Vice President.
The convention is not contentious but rather a celebration of Biden and his administration and the passing of the torch is unified and is a symbol of the peaceful transition of power. Defeating Trump as the most unified Democratic Party in the country’s history will be the theme of the convention.
Yes, this is outlandish as hell but it also would work.
It would revolutionize national party conventions.
It would energize the youth vote.
It would consume the national spotlight for two months.
It would educate the American electorate for two months on the Democratic candidates.
The American electorate would be part of the process.
It might just save Democracy and energize the electorate like never before. Just say'n!