The Sum of All Fears
The Democratic party is asked to save democracy. Again.
No Secret podcast today. This stuff is as serious as a heart attack, so Sarah and I sat down with Tim and did an emergency pod for the flagship instead. We didn’t want it hidden behind a paywall. The moment is too important.
That conversation will be on the main podcast feed shortly and there won’t be a Secret show today.
We’re going all the way to midnight, so strap in. This is a hard conversation and we need to have it, with respect. I know you’ll do your part in the comments.
1. No Rationalizations
Let’s stipulate to a bunch of truths:
Debating is easy when you are allowed to lie with utter impunity.
Donald Trump’s mendacity and cognitive impairments were striking, even by his own standards.
CNN committed malpractice.1
Joe Biden clearly had a cold.
Maybe two weeks from now head-to-head polling will show that the debate didn’t matter.
We often over-weight events in the moment.
All of that said: Biden’s debate performance was catastrophic. It not only validated the biggest concern voters have about him—it also suggested that he is incapable of waging a vigorous campaign.
It would be irresponsible if President Biden, his wife, Valerie Biden, Kamala Harris, Ron Klain, Anita Dunn, Hakeem Jeffries, Chuck Schumer, and every other major figure in Democratic politics did not have a serious, candid, and ongoing conversation over the next 48 hours about Biden’s ability to serve as his party’s presidential nominee.
Because here is the bedrock fact: The Democratic party has been asked to save our country’s democracy. Again.
2. Both Sides?
Can you point to a single person anywhere in Republican politics or Conservatism Inc. who watched Trump’s performance last night and is now suggesting that he be replaced on the ticket?
I ask, because Trump spoke in non sequiturs.2 To call his lies a stream would be an insult to the mighty Mississippi.
Trump is—objectively—unfit for office. He is insurrectionist and a felon. He cannot answer simple questions.
Yet nowhere in the Republican party does there exist a single person standing up today to say, “Something must be done. We cannot let this man be our nominee.”
So the Republican party isn’t going to save democracy.
But we knew that. What has become clear over the months is that none of our other institutions will, either.
The Supreme Court has done everything in its power to delay criminal proceedings against Trump.
The supposedly nonpartisan trial court in Florida has likewise acted as an arm of the Trump campaign.
Much of the mainstream media—including and especially CNN—treated Trump as a normal political figure and bent over both forwards and backwards to avoid even the appearance that they might prefer democracy to authoritarianism.3
The business community has treated Trump and Trumpism with a deference that resembles a perverted version of Pascal’s wager.
And The People? Don’t even get me started on The People.
So it’s up to the Democratic party.
The Democratic party must have the painful conversations and consider previously unthinkable courses that will be fraught with risk.
The Democratic party will have to rally, as an institution, to save a country that—let’s be honest—might not even be worthy of saving.
Just like the Democratic party did in 2020.4
Real Talk: This is too much to ask of a political party. Parties are sprawling, amorphous, institutions with competing incentives and constituencies. A political party is not, just as a matter of nuts and bolts, well suited to repelling an authoritarian attempt from outside its own walls.
And it is not fair that this burden has been passed to the Democratic party by all of our other failed institutions.
But fair’s got nothing to do with it.
Again: If the Bidens and Kamala Harris and Hakeem Jeffries and other Democrats do not instigate a stone-cold serious conversation about having the president step aside, then they will be failing America.
More Real Talk: The Bulwark is one of the few places where these kinds of hard conversations can happen. No one here is polishing turds or gaslighting. We are looking at the real world with clear eyes and full hearts. We are here not for a team, but for our country.
If you’ve ever wanted to be with us before, then today is the day to join. Become a member. And if you can’t afford a membership for whatever reason, just email me and we’ll work something out. You can’t save democracy from behind a paywall and you don’t build a community by excluding people just because they can’t swing it financially.
It’s going to be a long, hard 129 days. Let’s go through it together.
3. Two Paths
What if there is no good answer?
It is possible that Biden’s debate performance was a mortal wound and that having Kamala Harris, or Josh Shapiro, or Gavin Newsom as the nominee would result in an even lower win probability.
I’m open to that argument.
But it’s an argument that Democrats ought to be having right now. They should be running the traps. Looking at how campaign structures would work. Doing a boatload of polls and focus groups. Figuring out what the money situation would be.
Can the logistical hurdles be overcome? What would a brokered convention look like? And those are all questions that have to be answered even before you get to who the alternative nominee would be and how the party could build consensus around her or him.
And if the conclusion is that it’s not possible to move forward with another candidate, then the Democratic party has to figure out something. Because this is not a steady-as-she-goes moment.
It’s a crisis.
In the comments today, I’d like you to talk through [gestures broadly] all of this. Be your most kind and thoughtful selves. Don’t lash out. Consider all sides. Begin from the proposition that whatever your instinct is here, you might be wrong.
That’s certainly where I am right now.
Correction (June 28, 2024, 3:50 p.m. EDT): As originally published, this newsletter mistakenly gave the wrong name for Joe Biden’s former chief of staff and adviser; he is Ron Klain, not Andy Card.
The second question of the night was about debt and deficits. January 6th didn’t come up until 39 minutes in. Jake Tapper allowed Trump to say that a story Tapper himself reported was false.
Trump stated that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war even before taking office and CNN did not think to ask, “How?”
Trump was not asked a single question about the three felony cases pending against him. Or presidential immunity. Or his lies about winning the 2020 election.
A few weeks ago Trump asserted that President Biden had attempted to have him assassinated. CNN did not see fit to ask him about it.
“They [NATO] were going out of business,” he said at one point. What does that mean?
When the history of this moment is written, CNN and the New York Times will deserve their own small sections.
And an assortment of responsible voters.
This is precisely one of those moments, JVL, where you've often said the Democrats/Biden have to place perfect baseball and never make a single mistake, lest the GOP win. Last night was a really big mistake. There's no word to describe the asymmetry at play here.
Maybe the USA isn't a country worth saving. Maybe we have become too decadent as a people to be worthy. But dammit, I live here. As does my wife and my son. I may not be worthy, but they are. And so are millions of other little kids who deserve to grow up in stability. If we throw our system away- for no god damned good reason- the United States of America will likely become history's greatest unforced tragedy.
We can and should blame Biden, his campaign team, CNN, the media at large, etc. for what seems to be the inevitable crash and burn of American democracy.
But I hope we don't forget that the true blame belongs to every single person who votes for Donald Trump in November. I'm just so weary and tired of the self-flagellation as if these people don't have to be accountable for their actions but the rest of us do. Ignorance about basic civics, economics, history. Basic human decency. These are choices.