I couldn’t bear to watch the debate but did see both NC speech and ABC interview. Sorry, not good enough. Sure they were “better” when measured against the debate but not even close to acceptable. I feel very badly for Biden who has devoted his life to his country. I’d prefer to remember that, not watch his heartbreaking decline.
I belive Ukriane should be in NATO !!! also Ukraine must be supported by all of NATO countries. they are doing NATOs work for them, something to think about,right------- screw putan and his want to rule!!!!! and I feel sorry for the Russian people as they have ------PUTAN to blame for all their suffering.
I have never regretted my support for President Biden since his second run for the presidency in 2008. He is a statesman who knows how to work the levers of power and diplomacy.
Irredentist? I love how the Bulwark improves my vocabulary. And thank god for my digital dictionary. I'd probably be too lazy to look up all these new words in my "analog" dictionary.
Things have definitely turned out much better than almost anyone could have envisioned given that Ukraine has had to stand alone on the battlefield. Though, to me it seems like Biden has had to poked and prodded along almost every step of the way.
Good job, Joe. except for the part of abandoning the people of Afghanistan to a living hell. We had succeeded in creating a decent world for the vast majority of Afghans who live in Kabul. Trump-hating Euros have completely erased that Biden completely ignored their advice as well as that of his advisers.
Can we rethink how we have judged Biden all along? Re the Europeans and the US, it seems fair to credit Biden with the perfect personality (and experience set) to accomplish what he has with Ukraine. Partly his is not a dick like the last guy. But our allies truly seem to "get" Biden. (Most the GOP play this as a team sport?)
And re the legislation, maybe Biden does have some intangible skills - listening, not antagonizing. Obama for all his eloquence did not click with Congress. And maybe Schumer and Pelosi are not just bad people.
And maybe the press should stop acting like a teenager who constantly whines about every little thing. So... gas is too expensive, I can't get my infant formula, the airline industry treats us like shit, oh it is hot out! The president is not really responsible for every bad thing. But with 24 hour news, we get endless questions. tonight a reported asked Schumer why they didn't get the deal done earlier - really? Can't let the man take a win?
The challenge for the west -- including the US -- is do we provide an exit ramp for Putin or do we let him grind it our until every city in Ukraine is destroyed or the disaster of the Russian army forces regime change. There is no reason for the Ukraine to agree to anything with the Russians without believable guarentees against the Russians trying again in a year after they rebuild their army. Suppose Ukraine agrees to take NATO membership off the table and recognizes Russian control of the Crimea -- what could Russia offer in return that would be of any value to Ukraine. Zilch is the answer that I calculate.
The "convoy" north of Kyiv is a disaster in the making for the Russian Army, for several reasons:
1. Fuel. Military vehicles consume extraordinary amounts of it. Tanks get about 3 gallons to a mile (that's not a misprint) Even stopped, military vehicles have to keep their engines running, to recharge batteries, to keep weapons systems active, and to keep vehicle occupants from freezing to death. The situation will quickly consume any fuel stocks in the convoy. And, since the convoy occupies/blocks the road, no new fuel can be brought in. Any fuel trucks trying to operate off-road will bog down.
2. Deployment. Unless the Russians were absolutely brilliant about convoy order, this is nothing but a 40 mi. hodgepodge of heterogenous military units, each with its own orders about how to get to Kyiv, and each under a different commander. Necessary support units like engineers and bridgebuilders are snarled in the mess, unable to get forward (the Ukrainians have blown the bridges the convoy has to use). At the end of their travel, this conglomeration will have to sort itself out into discrete commands and form up for battle, while under fire. Good luck.
3. Readiness. Every day troops and tanks sit waiting degrades their usefulness. What we are seeing is a 40 mi. stretch of starving, freezing, and sleep-deprived soldiers. Further, they were in bad shape when they started; they had just finished three days of maneuvers with Belorussian troops. They were tired, hungry, and worn before they even crossed the Ukrainian border. Modern armored vehicles require an extraordinary amount of maintenance; modern tanks usually require an hour of maintenance for every hour in the field. They are probably now suffering a high rate of breakdowns.
4. Loss of initiative. Stalled convoys are an opponent's dream, easily taken apart and destroyed. In convoy, these forces cannot maneuver; and maneuver is essential in modern combat. Undoubtedly, the Ukrainians are starting to pick off those vehicles one by one. This happened in the Finnish-Soviet Winter War, where the Finnish sliced Soviet military convoys into smaller and smaller sections ("motti", chopped logs), and destroyed them in detail.
The huge convoy north of Kyiv is an invitation to a Russian disaster. Unable to move, deploy, and resupply, running out of provisions, the convoy is a target far more than a threat.
Unless Russia can drive a relief column south from Belarus in close proximity and parallel to the stalled first column, to provide it with food, fuel, and protection, the first column is doomed to become a vast military used-car lot, with Ukraine its only customer.
Even given this, we are seeing a fraction of Russia's military power so far. It seems inevitable that Ukraine will eventually fall and we will have a bloody occupation. Do you see any other viable options?
and putan thought that UKRAINE would fall in 2-4 days, what does this tell you------hm hm hm. I think you must think again!, after all you have been wrong so far and that says a lot.
Sorry, I realized I didn't answer your question. Putin is not rational, so it's difficult to guess what he will do. But if military operations continue this way, senior military leaders will begin to think about protecting the Russian Army's reputation, rather than following further orders from Putin.
They don't have to stand up, just bumble; be cheerfully incompetent in carrying out his orders. Which may already be happening, looking at the general incompetence of the Russian forces.
Discount the possibility of sieges. Russia, at the moment, lacks air superiority or the necessary control of the countryside. It doesn't have enough troops in country to lay siege to one large city, let alone several. And whatever specialized siege troops it has, like static artillery pieces, are probably locked up in the "convoy" north of Kyiv.
Russia's military is looking more and more like the Keystone Cops. Rather than thinking of the forces in the Ukraine as a fraction of Russia's power, think of it as the best that Russia can produce for mounting a military operation. You can have all the troops you want, but if you don't feed them, lead them, fuel them, and motivate them, they are just cattle. You can have thousands of airplanes, but if you cannot motivate the pilots, coordinate them with ground forces, and keep their planes flying, they're just heaps of metal.
Russia's forces are unled, unfed, and out of gas. And its my guess that, increasingly, they are wondering what they are doing in Ukraine.
no more Wagner--no more prisoners-etc. and now putan is asking around for more bodies to throw into the fray. yes putan has his head up his ASS
PUTAN HAS HIS HEAD UP HIS ASS! when he asks for more bodies from "friends" he can't even run a WAR right. he wants more prisoners to go to WAR for him but -----he can't get them, as for the army he has they do not know who to fight TRY PUTAN ,and take your Country BACK!!!! "NUFF SAID"
From where? Russian can only draw down its military presence so far in other areas. And if Russia held so many available forces in reserve that it could create an effective second wave, then why didn't they use them in the first one, to guarantee success?
And what would keep Russia from making the same stupid logistical, operational, and motivational mistakes?
As well, a second wave would simply be perceived internationally as a second invasion, another shot at taking over Ukraine. It would have grave international repercussions. For instance, Russian escalation would almost certainly drive Sweden and Finland into NATO. The West has not exhausted its non-military options.
Finally any delay in gathering and mounting a second wave would allow the Ukrainian military to absorb and use the flood of modern military supplies flowing its way.
Seems that a second wave would simply be seen as additional reinforcements. Largescale, indiscriminate bombing seems the most likely option moving forward. Gradually destroying the cities. Putin is already alienated and sanctioned. Flattening the cities until they are formally occupied seems likely to me.
I have to give Biden credit. He managed to unify a fractious coalition of Western countries, in the face of the isolationist leanings of both major political parties. It was an amazing lift. Could a POTUS have averted the crisis with a more forward deployment early on? Possibly, but those guys, except maybe Mitt Romney, aren’t on the national stage anymore, and they couldn’t get elected in today’s toxic environment anyhow. Hopefully, this will be the event that turns Americans away from the isolationist abyss.
I couldn’t bear to watch the debate but did see both NC speech and ABC interview. Sorry, not good enough. Sure they were “better” when measured against the debate but not even close to acceptable. I feel very badly for Biden who has devoted his life to his country. I’d prefer to remember that, not watch his heartbreaking decline.
"important principal"
oops.
A winner ! UKRAINE !!! Putan's WORST NIGHTMERE UKRAINE IS GREAT THEY BEAT Putan !!! now that would GREAT TO HEAR,
I belive Ukriane should be in NATO !!! also Ukraine must be supported by all of NATO countries. they are doing NATOs work for them, something to think about,right------- screw putan and his want to rule!!!!! and I feel sorry for the Russian people as they have ------PUTAN to blame for all their suffering.
“Free Bubble-Up and Rainbow Stew” for everyone! No Labels working hard to kill democracy.
Here is a compelling article I wrote last year about why the battle over Ukraine is so important:
https://www.getcivil.org/articles/ukraine
I have never regretted my support for President Biden since his second run for the presidency in 2008. He is a statesman who knows how to work the levers of power and diplomacy.
Irredentist? I love how the Bulwark improves my vocabulary. And thank god for my digital dictionary. I'd probably be too lazy to look up all these new words in my "analog" dictionary.
Things have definitely turned out much better than almost anyone could have envisioned given that Ukraine has had to stand alone on the battlefield. Though, to me it seems like Biden has had to poked and prodded along almost every step of the way.
Republicans who oppose helping Ukraine take note: Neville Chamberlain, Hitler, and appeasement.
Putin won't stop at Ukraine, Poland is tempting, then Germany ...
Good job, Joe. except for the part of abandoning the people of Afghanistan to a living hell. We had succeeded in creating a decent world for the vast majority of Afghans who live in Kabul. Trump-hating Euros have completely erased that Biden completely ignored their advice as well as that of his advisers.
Can we rethink how we have judged Biden all along? Re the Europeans and the US, it seems fair to credit Biden with the perfect personality (and experience set) to accomplish what he has with Ukraine. Partly his is not a dick like the last guy. But our allies truly seem to "get" Biden. (Most the GOP play this as a team sport?)
And re the legislation, maybe Biden does have some intangible skills - listening, not antagonizing. Obama for all his eloquence did not click with Congress. And maybe Schumer and Pelosi are not just bad people.
And maybe the press should stop acting like a teenager who constantly whines about every little thing. So... gas is too expensive, I can't get my infant formula, the airline industry treats us like shit, oh it is hot out! The president is not really responsible for every bad thing. But with 24 hour news, we get endless questions. tonight a reported asked Schumer why they didn't get the deal done earlier - really? Can't let the man take a win?
Amen.
The challenge for the west -- including the US -- is do we provide an exit ramp for Putin or do we let him grind it our until every city in Ukraine is destroyed or the disaster of the Russian army forces regime change. There is no reason for the Ukraine to agree to anything with the Russians without believable guarentees against the Russians trying again in a year after they rebuild their army. Suppose Ukraine agrees to take NATO membership off the table and recognizes Russian control of the Crimea -- what could Russia offer in return that would be of any value to Ukraine. Zilch is the answer that I calculate.
Ukraine is showing images of a thermobaric launcher that they have captured.
The "convoy" north of Kyiv is a disaster in the making for the Russian Army, for several reasons:
1. Fuel. Military vehicles consume extraordinary amounts of it. Tanks get about 3 gallons to a mile (that's not a misprint) Even stopped, military vehicles have to keep their engines running, to recharge batteries, to keep weapons systems active, and to keep vehicle occupants from freezing to death. The situation will quickly consume any fuel stocks in the convoy. And, since the convoy occupies/blocks the road, no new fuel can be brought in. Any fuel trucks trying to operate off-road will bog down.
2. Deployment. Unless the Russians were absolutely brilliant about convoy order, this is nothing but a 40 mi. hodgepodge of heterogenous military units, each with its own orders about how to get to Kyiv, and each under a different commander. Necessary support units like engineers and bridgebuilders are snarled in the mess, unable to get forward (the Ukrainians have blown the bridges the convoy has to use). At the end of their travel, this conglomeration will have to sort itself out into discrete commands and form up for battle, while under fire. Good luck.
3. Readiness. Every day troops and tanks sit waiting degrades their usefulness. What we are seeing is a 40 mi. stretch of starving, freezing, and sleep-deprived soldiers. Further, they were in bad shape when they started; they had just finished three days of maneuvers with Belorussian troops. They were tired, hungry, and worn before they even crossed the Ukrainian border. Modern armored vehicles require an extraordinary amount of maintenance; modern tanks usually require an hour of maintenance for every hour in the field. They are probably now suffering a high rate of breakdowns.
4. Loss of initiative. Stalled convoys are an opponent's dream, easily taken apart and destroyed. In convoy, these forces cannot maneuver; and maneuver is essential in modern combat. Undoubtedly, the Ukrainians are starting to pick off those vehicles one by one. This happened in the Finnish-Soviet Winter War, where the Finnish sliced Soviet military convoys into smaller and smaller sections ("motti", chopped logs), and destroyed them in detail.
The huge convoy north of Kyiv is an invitation to a Russian disaster. Unable to move, deploy, and resupply, running out of provisions, the convoy is a target far more than a threat.
Unless Russia can drive a relief column south from Belarus in close proximity and parallel to the stalled first column, to provide it with food, fuel, and protection, the first column is doomed to become a vast military used-car lot, with Ukraine its only customer.
I like the TRUTH and this is what you write-------and that's no bulls--t thanks
Even given this, we are seeing a fraction of Russia's military power so far. It seems inevitable that Ukraine will eventually fall and we will have a bloody occupation. Do you see any other viable options?
and putan thought that UKRAINE would fall in 2-4 days, what does this tell you------hm hm hm. I think you must think again!, after all you have been wrong so far and that says a lot.
Sorry, I realized I didn't answer your question. Putin is not rational, so it's difficult to guess what he will do. But if military operations continue this way, senior military leaders will begin to think about protecting the Russian Army's reputation, rather than following further orders from Putin.
Seems unlikely to me that anyone within Russia would stand up to Putin, fearing certain death. But we can hope.
They don't have to stand up, just bumble; be cheerfully incompetent in carrying out his orders. Which may already be happening, looking at the general incompetence of the Russian forces.
Discount the possibility of sieges. Russia, at the moment, lacks air superiority or the necessary control of the countryside. It doesn't have enough troops in country to lay siege to one large city, let alone several. And whatever specialized siege troops it has, like static artillery pieces, are probably locked up in the "convoy" north of Kyiv.
And yet, this seems to only prolong the war. Even without decisive victory, Russia seems de facto occupiers already.
Russia's military is looking more and more like the Keystone Cops. Rather than thinking of the forces in the Ukraine as a fraction of Russia's power, think of it as the best that Russia can produce for mounting a military operation. You can have all the troops you want, but if you don't feed them, lead them, fuel them, and motivate them, they are just cattle. You can have thousands of airplanes, but if you cannot motivate the pilots, coordinate them with ground forces, and keep their planes flying, they're just heaps of metal.
Russia's forces are unled, unfed, and out of gas. And its my guess that, increasingly, they are wondering what they are doing in Ukraine.
Keystone Cops I like that!! I guess that putan has his head where the Sun dosent shine. I think that putan must drinking his own KOOL-ADE
I think this is just the first wave. They may be depleted and demoralized, but there will undoubtedly be more.
no more Wagner--no more prisoners-etc. and now putan is asking around for more bodies to throw into the fray. yes putan has his head up his ASS
PUTAN HAS HIS HEAD UP HIS ASS! when he asks for more bodies from "friends" he can't even run a WAR right. he wants more prisoners to go to WAR for him but -----he can't get them, as for the army he has they do not know who to fight TRY PUTAN ,and take your Country BACK!!!! "NUFF SAID"
From where? Russian can only draw down its military presence so far in other areas. And if Russia held so many available forces in reserve that it could create an effective second wave, then why didn't they use them in the first one, to guarantee success?
And what would keep Russia from making the same stupid logistical, operational, and motivational mistakes?
As well, a second wave would simply be perceived internationally as a second invasion, another shot at taking over Ukraine. It would have grave international repercussions. For instance, Russian escalation would almost certainly drive Sweden and Finland into NATO. The West has not exhausted its non-military options.
Finally any delay in gathering and mounting a second wave would allow the Ukrainian military to absorb and use the flood of modern military supplies flowing its way.
Seems that a second wave would simply be seen as additional reinforcements. Largescale, indiscriminate bombing seems the most likely option moving forward. Gradually destroying the cities. Putin is already alienated and sanctioned. Flattening the cities until they are formally occupied seems likely to me.
Thank you for this detailed analysis.
you are welcome.
I have to give Biden credit. He managed to unify a fractious coalition of Western countries, in the face of the isolationist leanings of both major political parties. It was an amazing lift. Could a POTUS have averted the crisis with a more forward deployment early on? Possibly, but those guys, except maybe Mitt Romney, aren’t on the national stage anymore, and they couldn’t get elected in today’s toxic environment anyhow. Hopefully, this will be the event that turns Americans away from the isolationist abyss.