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" As John Pitney, a political scientist and Never Trump conservative, recently wrote:

Trump will almost certainly refuse to accept defeat. But if he loses big in the popular vote, as well as losing the electoral vote, it will be harder for him to claim that he is the people’s choice. The larger the margin, the weaker his claim.

Simply put, every vote matters, even outside the swing states."

Grrr, I have been saying the same thing since the summer of 2016. The usual response has been a patronizing, "You should read the Constitution. The popular vote doesn't matter, only the Electoral College." I respond, "Sure but the mandate comes form the popular vote. Every time one of Trump's press secretaries claimed that Trump's election demonstrated that the AMERICAN PEOPLE support his policies, they were talking about the popular vote and they were lying." Maybe two elections later, people finally understand.

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"Normie" Republican is at best an oxymoron; its really "undefined" as there is no Republican Party. There is a politcal party dedicated to the worship of one Donald J. Trump. That is about as far from "normal" as you can get.

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I'd like to hear The Bulwark's analysis of the failure of the WSJ editorial page to take a Liz-Cheney-like stance. Can you put us Bulwark readers inside the WSJ EB's heads on a second Trump term's being preferable to the alternative?

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Donald Trump performs for a select audience: the mirror’s image. Women, transgender, African Americans, people of color, Jews, Muslims, Haitians—they are all preprogrammed talking points, not people.

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I hate that Youngkin is considered a normie. I live in Virginia and those dad vests are his invisibility cloaks. If he wasn’t kept in check by the Dem legislature, Youngkin would have been full MAGA. He was caught on hot mics on multiple occasions and has refused democratic moves several times. He’s slick and not at all old guard.

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founding

“But they don’t deserve much praise, and they aren’t worthy of much hope. Because they refuse to be honest about the craziness and cruelty in the candidate and movement they support, they end up legitimizing and strengthening the craziness and the cruelty.”

Bill, we don’t congratulate the GOP normies, because there are none. Anyone who claims to be normal, yet goes along with any part of the Trump agenda, is NOT by definition NORMAL: PERIOD!

Additionally, we don’t think Pence was a hero for doing his job (as you e been constantly force feeding us), and I personally believe that anyone left in the Republican Party who hasn’t switched to independent, should get their heads examined, or be committed.

These republican politicians don’t have to switch to democrat to keep their reputations intact. Most of the so called “normies” could easily win in their red districts and states, if they only just left the party, so Trump can’t primary them, when only the most devout MAGA lunatics show up to vote. This is Trump’s only real power over the party. His ability to manipulate republican primaries!

Yet instead, they’d rather debase themselves and join in on destroying the very fabric of America that makes this country great: Immigration!

Indeed, It’s easy to blame immigrants for all of America’s ill’s. They are helpless to fight back, and easily smeared and abused. Yet undocumented immigrants add $1.7 trillion a year to our GDP. Legal immigrants add approximately 3.7 trillion to our GDP. And legal immigrants, while paying taxes, can’t receive any benefits, except education of their kids, for at least seven years when entering the country.

Undocumented, also pay taxes and make up approximately 30% of construction labor, which keeps the cost of building new housing relatively inexpensive compared to using all American labor. The same goes for our agricultural industry, slaughter houses, and even your landscapers and home nursing aids, which for the most part, rely almost exclusively on migrant and immigrant labor.

So go ahead and expel all the immigrants, both legal and undocumented. Trump added $8.2 trillion to our debt in four years. Imagine the cost of trying to expel 11 million people; it will be in the hundreds of billions, and take over a decade to achieve, and require additional enforcement resources, from police, to judges, the transportation services. While simultaneously giving outlandish tax cuts to the rich, and putting expensive tariffs on all imports. Debt, supply chain issues and high deficits are some of the major causes of inflation, besides raising interest rates and natural disasters.

Bottom line: Trump’s despicable behavior, foreign policy, tariffs, and economic agenda will be the death kneel of this country! You know it, I know it, and everyone knows it; even the so called Republican “NORMIES!”….:)

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I don’t think Pence should get a cookie for doing his job but I’d give him half a cookie for coming out against the guy who tried to have him killed.

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founding

Fair enough; half a cookie it is…:)

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founding

I have no hope that sane former Trump Administration officials warning about the dangers of another Trump presidency will have any impact on Republican voters. Those that are left and considering voting for Trump will vote Trump, as will most of the "undecided" or "independent" voters that are pretty much already in the tank for Trump. I admire the courage of Cheney, Hutchinson and Matthews (I still think Griffin was willfully blind during her time in the Trump Administration and before), but sadly their impact will be minimal on the election. Registered Democrat voter turnout (especiailly younger registered Democrats) will either win or lose it for Kamala.

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Too many young voters have already become too jaundiced to accept any of this. My grandson is 19, works part-time and goes full-time to college here in Seattle. His view is that nothing about voting is going to change things if people up to their armpits in seawater still accept being represented by politicians that for political expediency tell you that climate change is a hoax and that FEMA is devoted to the care and feeding of Haitian migrants that eat cats and dogs. The result is just more politicians that say this crazy shit so that they can get elected by people up to their armpits in seawater. All I can tell him is vote here in Washington state anyway and that you are probably right.

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founding

There have been a lot of new young voters that have registered as Democrats. Hopefully that indicates they are motivated to vote to defeat Trump.

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We can only hope...what happens here in Seattle will not change that one way or another, unfortunately.

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It will change what happens in WA, though. Please talk to him about down-ballot races. He can absolutely make a difference.

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There are no "Normie" Republicans. there are just Trumpicans left who identify at all with the "Republican" brand as trademarked by Trump and the Trump Organization. As to those still telling anybody who asks that they "do not vote Democrat," please remember that Lincoln was a great President but his election triggered the Civil War. I have slowly come to the realization that Obama was a fine President (too early historically to say "great") but his election pushed the country into a cultural and religious Col War that is still going on. For the 42% of the country that might yet reelect Trump, telling him that "he's terrible, vote for the black woman" is a non-starter. What these courageous women led by Liz Cheney cannot say yet, for whatever reason, is that those of you out there who are racist should still vote to save your country.

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On foreign wars, Trump couldn’t care less about wars anywhere unless it affects his earnings or grift. We know how “old bone spurs “ feels about the “suckers and losers “in the military. “What’ in for them”, Trump ponders. Medal of Honor, “ not so could because they are wounded or dead.

If Trump is elected, we only have our selves to blame. For too long, as a country, we have not demanded better character of our representatives. We have swung to partisanship rather than picking the best, unbiased and most qualified.

The cornerstone of a great democracy is having a well educated society and a to practice that this country is based on separation of church and state and equal liberty and rights for ALL.

The fair and even minded media whose mission in a free society is to inform the people not influence them. Our media has abandoned those principles for greed and popularity.

We have allowed and even encouraged the appointment of partisan judges. The law used to be the law equal to all but now we have a total corruption of our system with the poster child SCOTUS and Aileen Cannon.

We have a majority of unfit people in Congress and the Senate ( too numerous to name) who will accuse people of wrongdoing and then try to prove it. When right in front of them is obvious corruption to investigate ( Jared Kushner’s $2 billion payout or $10 million paid by a foreign government to fund a campaign).

The point is that apathy ,complacency, and tribalism have brought us to the edge of an abyss.

We either link hands Republicans and Democratic , liberals and conservatives, or we all fall in the abyss of hell fire.

Does anyone ,not a billionaire or white Christian think they will be treated fairly under Trump? Or they will have equal status and privileges that they enjoy now?

Do you really think a dictator will allow his subjects to remain armed?

Loyalty over competence is the future on the road to idiocy ( not just a movie but a documentary).

People like Jill Stein, like Ralph Nader did, are well intentioned but do more harm than good but their self absorption and failure to recognize the harm they are doing is just another reason we may not deserve to continue as a democracy.

Trump couldn’t be any more transparent about his lack of ethics or morality. He has told you he can be bought. Deportation camps? A lot of people around Trump have been fined, disbarred and even imprisoned.

Trump is corrupt and corrupts those around him to serve him and not the people and especially not his cult of useful idiots.

There is only one choice, hold your nose, vote for Harris and take the next 4 years to try to build a better country with liberty and justice for all.

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A lot of Trump supporters believe they are safe from Trump's horrific policies,, Project 2025, or one of his stupid whims. Maybe in the wake of the FEMA lies, they understand that they too are at risk. A hurricane doesn't care whether you are a billionaire or a white christian. Trumpism and the gospel of power is seeping into nonwhite evangelical churches as well and some of those pastors are afraid to confront it from the pulpit.

They say that politics has not place in their sermons. I disagree. There is no problem with preaching from the Temptation of Christ. "5 And the devil took him up and showed him all the kingdoms of the world in a moment of time, 6 and said to him, “To you I will give all this authority and their glory, for it has been delivered to me, and I give it to whom I will. 7 If you, then, will worship me, it will all be yours.” 8 And Jesus answered him, “It is written, ‘You shall worship the Lord your God, and him only shall you serve.’” The devil offered Jesus worldly power, but Jesus says, "Seek ye first the Kingdom of God." Evangelical Christians must beware of succumbing to the temptation of attaining worldly power to usher in their flawed concept of the Kingdom of God. Preachers have been gving that sermon since long before Trump, but many of them refuse to do so now for fear their congregation will make the obvious application.

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Correct on all counts. However impressive it is that 3 brave young women have joined Liz Cheney to denounce Trump and support Harris, I was struck by paragraph 4 of "They Served with Trump..." Of the people cited, almost all of them men, held positions of power far in excess of those held by the women on that stage in Pennsylvania. While virtually all of those people have signed on to op-eds etc., which few voters read, where are they right now? Why are they letting young women and Cheney, who was out there all alone for far too long, do all the heavy lifting? Those military men could be speaking to groups of veterans and active military people. Others could be speaking to groups with which they have an affiliation. Why aren't they doing that? Right again on "normie" Republicans like Youngkin and poor naive Mitt Romney who somehow thinks that if he does not endorse Harris, he will have the chance to rebuild what is left of the tatters of the Republican party he imagines still exists. Speaking of Haley, why is she now supporting Trump? Has he improved since she was campaigning against him? Finally, yes, Social Security and Medicare are important.If memory served, I paid into both programs during the 35+ years I was working and raising kids. At present, I am a 77 year old who was diagnosed with ovarian cancer three years ago. After two years of treatment, I am in remission thanks to my doctors and all those researchers who work hard every day finding new ways to treat diseases. Without Medicare, I could not have afforded the treatments I got. I would be long gone by now and unable to cast my vote for Kamala Harris, which I already have done.

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Well that was a depressing newsletter.

I know that a lot of ex-republicans want to “get their party back.” As an ex-Republican, I would like to say that (1) that isn’t going to happen and (2) I don’t even want that anymore.

On part 1, there is just far too much taint in the blood stream to even hope that any current Republican lawmaker is redeemable. I know, I know, people will say “what about Romney or lisa or Liz…blah blah.” Let’s be honest about these politicians: (1) most have been thrown out of the party and will never be allowed back and (2) most of these people still haven’t shown great judgement. Sure they faced unspeakable challenges but we don’t give medals out for almost saving a soldier in war. Most of these people have shown some ability to standup but it hasn’t been sufficient in my mind.

On the second point, we just can’t paper over that the Republican Party has allowed this hate and fear mongering was stoked and placated for Y

EARS before Trump. This country deserves far better than what the Republican Party was. Time to start anew.

Finally, can we all put aside the “I want Harris to do x not y and maybe z?” This election was going to be damn close no matter who ran for the democrats ran or how they ran. The fundamental problem we have is (1) this is what a LARGE portion of what Americans want and (2) the electoral college. You need to change the voters hearts or the system.

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founding

Dead on. I admire Liz Cheney but she and the others will little to no impact on the election. As a centrist Democrat I want a Republican party that is ethical and brings an opposing viewpoint, because that keeps the Dems from kowtowing to the progressive wing. And the reality is that many of these folks tolerated or worse during the years of the Tea Party and Republican birtherism attacks on Obama (I'm talking about you Alyssa Farah Griffin, but there are many others). Changing the system is easier than changing the hearts of 47% of the voters, and changing the system is impossible. That's where we are.

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One danger of the Dems sweeping the election and getting the trifecta I hope they get is it may go to their heads.

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I know. It is sad because I don’t see a way out. In 2020, I thought we had a chance. 2 options: (1) structural reforms (add states, kill the filibuster, pack the court, etc…but let’s be fair to Biden…this wasn’t really an option because of manchin and sinema) or (2) do economic populism. Biden was soooooo good with number 2. We have the economy every country dreams to have and yet half of America (shit probably more) hate it. What the fuck can Harris really do to make a dent in those people when she won’t even control the senate. Shit man, I don’t think she will be able to pass anything but a budget and probably have just a shit ton of acting cabinet members (senators won’t confirm them)

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She might get the Senate. Think positively.

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That ain’t happening. Tester is going to lose in Montana. I’m positive that it’s 51-49 but brown has a lot of work to do.

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I have been saying for the past year that what Jews were to Hitler, Immigrants are to Trump. I know two Germans who were illegally in the US overstaying their student visas. I know this is not what Trump is talking about. He is talking about illegals with Brown Skin. In any case, Prof. Kathleen Belew, in her book Bring the War Home: The White Power Movement and Paramilitary America discusses exactly what is happening now, being planned in the early 1990s, after the Oklahoma City Bombing. White Supremacists were getting too much heat from the Feds, so they decided to take their movement in a different direction. One, they would ally with Christian Nationalists since they had similar values minus the violence, and they would tone down their racist rhetoric to be less overt and instead of talking about N-----s, W------ s, and Sp---s they would talk about immigrants. This was discussed in gatherings in the Pacific Northwest that included WS from around the world. Instead of fighting against the government they would enter the government and destroy the constitution from within. Is this coming to pass now. I see it as so. We have to recognize what is going on and stand up and fight back. I admire these women and hope they can be effective in moving people to do the right thing in this election.

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A few years ago I meant a couple of illegal immigrants from Scotland. Half of our illegal immigrants are visa overstays. MAGA doesn't want anyone to talk about them.

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Immigrants are also what Democratic Jews are to Trump.

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Although I never thought I'd write this, I have to give credit where credit is due. Good essay today by Bill Kristol.

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founding

"Trump’s lies follow exactly the same brain-dead formula: Identify problem. Blame immigrants." Substitute the word "Jews" for "undocumented immigrants" in the bullet-point list and you have an Adolph Hitler speech. Let's call it what it is: fascism.

Thank you, Bill, for calling bs on the Republican normies. Like Nixon and China, only you can do it. The normies' delusion that they have some kind of future in public life shows how well they deserve to be shunned. There is only MAGA now where Republicanism once lived; MAGA is not going away within the normies' lifetime; and MAGA has swiftly driven them out forever. Democrats will never forgive or forget the normies' self-serving collusion with trump--no welcome mat will ever be found there. Principled conservatives and independents, like those at the Bulwark, have already moved on and don't want the baggage. There's less than a month left for Youngkin, Romney, Hayley, Hogan, Douthat, Stephens et al. to save their reputation. We'll find out who among them, if any, come to their senses.

(Hoping to see you in Philadelphia again on Oct. 17!)

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founding

Meanwhile, PA Republicans are seeking to disallow ballots from military members stationed overseas.

https://wapo.st/4gYtcD8

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That seems counter-productive,but maybe they perceive that Trump has completely alienated the military which used to be a pretty reliable GOP voting bloc.

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founding

The most heartwarming part of this otherwise sober piece is the Republican husband of one of the attendees to the Liz Cheney event putting up a Harris sign. I will take any green shoots.

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It’s hard to know her tone, but I hope it was tinged with a touch of her power.

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