Hmmm, interesting piece! Trump ahead in a couple states by nearly 6 points?? Must be MAGA diehards. If he wins, what will he do for any of the “real” people? Not a damn thing. He’s promised the richest, tax cuts, actual a renewal of the current tax cut he jammed through for the richest when he was president. And, what will he do with social programs? The question GOP asks is, are better off now than you were 4yrs ago? The true answer is, no!! At a minimum, he was screwing up the CoVid response that unequivocally proves he isn’t up for the job. Trump looks after Trump, always will, win or lose!! Can the free world afford another 4yrs (or forever if he becomes a dictator on the 1st day? Common sense says, NO!!
I feel sick to my stomach when I look at these polls. I just don't understand how this race can be this close. Do people really not remember how badly Trump handled COVID? Has Joe Biden really done such a terrible job that people want to put a wanna-be dictator in office? I don't get it.
The scariest part are the polls that show people remember the Trump years as some kind of golden age: no wars, no migrants, no inflation. They've totally blocked out the pandemic and the president who said if we just ignore Covid it'll go away.
And there were plenty of migrants, but all people remember are kids being put in cages...and they like that. That's the scary part. As for the rest. Unemployment was worse, wages were worse, so naturally inflation was lower. Then the pandemic. Wages were in many cases non existent, as was employment, production of goods and services was the lowest it's ever been. No one was going to stores so price were low. After the covid, It stands to reason that inflation would go up when supply's low, demand is high., and wages are higher. I'm not an economist and yet it's easy to see if you think about it. And what can the President do in market economy to effect any of these issues. Very little. That's what's good about our economy.
I just looked at Fabrizio’s resumé and it doesn’t look that stellar to me. Can anyone enlighten me as to why he’s the top GOP pollster or is he just another grifter who’s good at the grift?
Gee, Caputo, according to your article especially about the swing states,WHY DONT WE JUST GIVE UP NOW and declare Trump the winner? I didn't expect more political sewage like this from the Bulwark...
Steve Jobs was known for deploying what was coined a "reality distortion field". His refusal to accept denial for a vision that he felt could be realized was what pushed Apple into unknown regions of a newer successful reality. We are witnessing the same with DJT. His imposing vision of his preferred reality is in full view and bearing down: Judge Marchand meekly unable to utilize his "gag orders" judicial powers, the baffling reduction in bail funds by hundreds of millions in his civil NY trial (Judge Engoron), the pusillanimous Judge Canon (Florida) who spinelessly has delayed the documents trial beyond any horizon. If DJT can outfox the entire legal apparatus, including SCOTUS he deserves to be POTUS again...that's if the rubes will deliver him once again with their votes. Any other notion of consideration is PIFFLE.
Trump suffers from Trump Derangement Syndrome. For decades he has created his reality and people around him have made it happen, until now.
He has his diehard cult but as soon as he steps outside his fantasy bubble reality slaps him. Thats why he stays at his own properties and has photo-ops set up for him with cold pizza. He didn’t care.
It’s not even all his fault. When you have paid fixers and loyal servants I can see how he imagines himself as better than sliced bread.
He is going to have a psychic break when he loses again and will try to burn the place down using the militias and cultists but bigger than Jan 6.
First, Substack always requires me to sign in special whenever I want to write a comment. I am not sure why this is because I never attempt to comment on newsletters I have not paid for. It is very inconvenient and time consuming.
But your newsletter today is terrifying as well as highly accurate, in my judgement. American society is completely dysfunctional, broken, and rotting at the core for many reasons. The right-wing political consultant you cited today is correct in stating that President Biden’s improvement in the polls has been very marginal since his State of the Union address in March, and that if the election were held today, President Biden would likely lose the electoral vote and quite possibly even the popular vote to Trump.
Even more frightening is that there is very little that President Biden can do about cost of living issues that he has not already done, especially with a Republican House. This problem, which many voters list as their number one concern, has caused the American people to develop a case of amnesia about how awful the Trump presidency really was. And amnesia is sometimes incurable.
However I do not buy that Trump is leading in the individual states mentioned in your newsletter today by as much as these polls are suggesting. Let’s not forget that there is a difference between registered voters and likely voters, and that President Biden is polling better among likely voters than registered voters.
Finally, even though there are some younger voters, especially younger voters of color that probably have completely broken from the Democratic Party over Gaza and the high cost of living problem, there are millions of conservative voters and Republicans who will not, under any circumstances, vote for Trump because they detest him so much personally, believe that he is an existential threat to the survival of our democracy, and are angry about the abortion issue.
There should be more than enough of these voters to compensate for disillusioned progressives and other former Democratic voters if President Biden and Democrats can find a way to tap into them.
Trump's ability to corrupt and corrode is without measure. The mere fact that Fabrizio is working for him means you should take anything Fabrizio says or forecasts with a BIG grain of salt.
One important factor polls can’t really control for is turnout. Both parties seem to be running fear-based campaigns in the hopes of inducing greater turnout.
Voters are most motivated by issues that negatively affect them personally. The state of the economy is typically such a factor but I doubt that this will be true by November absent a real reversal of the current strong economy. Immigration and crime are important but I’m not sure that individuals will feel personally affected. Abortion is a much more potent issue but its impact in a national race is unclear.
Democrats have to hope that pro-choice voters really show up because, despite his strong record, Biden is just not going to move voters to disproportionately turn out. Trump still has a considerable base but the revelations from the NY payoff trial and other legal matters may discourage some, particularly women, from making any special effort to help him.
One challenge for Republicans is that they have so persistently attacked the integrity of the voting process that it may undermine their turnout. Trump’s attacks on the outcome in Georgia badly hurt the Republicans, giving the Senate to the Democrats despite polls favoring the Republican candidates. He is already seeding doubts about the 2024 election.
The legal jeopardy Trump faces is a novel element both for voters and for him. He is feeling pressure of a type that he has never faced, has lost control of the news cycle and is handling it poorly. His attacks on the judge and the legal process are increasingly unhinged. Should he be convicted, there is no telling what he may do. Acquittal may be worse since it will embolden him.
Are you saying The Bulwark shouldn't cover polls and/or the "horserace" at all? Or do you mean it shouldn't give exposure to analysts viewing the polls/horserace through a Trumpian lens. In general, I say let's keep our eyes and ears open to good and bad news, as long as it comes from credible sources.
I appreciate your comment and question. I don’t want to hear anything from a Trumpian POV. Certainly not from a pessimist who looks at his chances optimistically. Anyone who is campaigning, voting or has anything to do with Trump is not OK with me. It’s not. While he is a candidate for President, Trump is a non-person; a racist, misogynistic, xenophobic narcissistic sociopath who cheats, steals and lies and wants to be an authoritarian. I don’t want to acknowledge his existence except to the extent we have to. Those of us that read the Bulwark and other substacks are invested enough.
Understood. Our hearts are in the same place. Still, I'm hoping the readers of the Bulwark see themselves as participants in the fight against Trump, not just spectators. If the Bulwark editors see Fabrizio as an adversary whose point of view might be illuminating, let's hear from him and stave off complacency. Having said all that, I don't enjoy getting freaked out needlessly by gloom and doom, either. In this case, I found the piece more motivating than depressing. Thanks for clarifying! This can be a useful forum.
"Weak." "Failed." "Dishonest." Every accusation is a confession with Trump, isn't it?
Hmmm, interesting piece! Trump ahead in a couple states by nearly 6 points?? Must be MAGA diehards. If he wins, what will he do for any of the “real” people? Not a damn thing. He’s promised the richest, tax cuts, actual a renewal of the current tax cut he jammed through for the richest when he was president. And, what will he do with social programs? The question GOP asks is, are better off now than you were 4yrs ago? The true answer is, no!! At a minimum, he was screwing up the CoVid response that unequivocally proves he isn’t up for the job. Trump looks after Trump, always will, win or lose!! Can the free world afford another 4yrs (or forever if he becomes a dictator on the 1st day? Common sense says, NO!!
I feel sick to my stomach when I look at these polls. I just don't understand how this race can be this close. Do people really not remember how badly Trump handled COVID? Has Joe Biden really done such a terrible job that people want to put a wanna-be dictator in office? I don't get it.
The scariest part are the polls that show people remember the Trump years as some kind of golden age: no wars, no migrants, no inflation. They've totally blocked out the pandemic and the president who said if we just ignore Covid it'll go away.
And there were plenty of migrants, but all people remember are kids being put in cages...and they like that. That's the scary part. As for the rest. Unemployment was worse, wages were worse, so naturally inflation was lower. Then the pandemic. Wages were in many cases non existent, as was employment, production of goods and services was the lowest it's ever been. No one was going to stores so price were low. After the covid, It stands to reason that inflation would go up when supply's low, demand is high., and wages are higher. I'm not an economist and yet it's easy to see if you think about it. And what can the President do in market economy to effect any of these issues. Very little. That's what's good about our economy.
I just looked at Fabrizio’s resumé and it doesn’t look that stellar to me. Can anyone enlighten me as to why he’s the top GOP pollster or is he just another grifter who’s good at the grift?
Sorry Mark, I read a couple of paragraphs and that was enough. Trump is not going to win, period.
Gee, Caputo, according to your article especially about the swing states,WHY DONT WE JUST GIVE UP NOW and declare Trump the winner? I didn't expect more political sewage like this from the Bulwark...
Steve Jobs was known for deploying what was coined a "reality distortion field". His refusal to accept denial for a vision that he felt could be realized was what pushed Apple into unknown regions of a newer successful reality. We are witnessing the same with DJT. His imposing vision of his preferred reality is in full view and bearing down: Judge Marchand meekly unable to utilize his "gag orders" judicial powers, the baffling reduction in bail funds by hundreds of millions in his civil NY trial (Judge Engoron), the pusillanimous Judge Canon (Florida) who spinelessly has delayed the documents trial beyond any horizon. If DJT can outfox the entire legal apparatus, including SCOTUS he deserves to be POTUS again...that's if the rubes will deliver him once again with their votes. Any other notion of consideration is PIFFLE.
Trump suffers from Trump Derangement Syndrome. For decades he has created his reality and people around him have made it happen, until now.
He has his diehard cult but as soon as he steps outside his fantasy bubble reality slaps him. Thats why he stays at his own properties and has photo-ops set up for him with cold pizza. He didn’t care.
It’s not even all his fault. When you have paid fixers and loyal servants I can see how he imagines himself as better than sliced bread.
He is going to have a psychic break when he loses again and will try to burn the place down using the militias and cultists but bigger than Jan 6.
Dear Mark,
First, Substack always requires me to sign in special whenever I want to write a comment. I am not sure why this is because I never attempt to comment on newsletters I have not paid for. It is very inconvenient and time consuming.
But your newsletter today is terrifying as well as highly accurate, in my judgement. American society is completely dysfunctional, broken, and rotting at the core for many reasons. The right-wing political consultant you cited today is correct in stating that President Biden’s improvement in the polls has been very marginal since his State of the Union address in March, and that if the election were held today, President Biden would likely lose the electoral vote and quite possibly even the popular vote to Trump.
Even more frightening is that there is very little that President Biden can do about cost of living issues that he has not already done, especially with a Republican House. This problem, which many voters list as their number one concern, has caused the American people to develop a case of amnesia about how awful the Trump presidency really was. And amnesia is sometimes incurable.
However I do not buy that Trump is leading in the individual states mentioned in your newsletter today by as much as these polls are suggesting. Let’s not forget that there is a difference between registered voters and likely voters, and that President Biden is polling better among likely voters than registered voters.
Finally, even though there are some younger voters, especially younger voters of color that probably have completely broken from the Democratic Party over Gaza and the high cost of living problem, there are millions of conservative voters and Republicans who will not, under any circumstances, vote for Trump because they detest him so much personally, believe that he is an existential threat to the survival of our democracy, and are angry about the abortion issue.
There should be more than enough of these voters to compensate for disillusioned progressives and other former Democratic voters if President Biden and Democrats can find a way to tap into them.
Sincerely,
David Hurwitz
Chicago, IL
I'm not sure I believe these polls.
I do NOT want to believe these polls!
Trump's ability to corrupt and corrode is without measure. The mere fact that Fabrizio is working for him means you should take anything Fabrizio says or forecasts with a BIG grain of salt.
One important factor polls can’t really control for is turnout. Both parties seem to be running fear-based campaigns in the hopes of inducing greater turnout.
Voters are most motivated by issues that negatively affect them personally. The state of the economy is typically such a factor but I doubt that this will be true by November absent a real reversal of the current strong economy. Immigration and crime are important but I’m not sure that individuals will feel personally affected. Abortion is a much more potent issue but its impact in a national race is unclear.
Democrats have to hope that pro-choice voters really show up because, despite his strong record, Biden is just not going to move voters to disproportionately turn out. Trump still has a considerable base but the revelations from the NY payoff trial and other legal matters may discourage some, particularly women, from making any special effort to help him.
One challenge for Republicans is that they have so persistently attacked the integrity of the voting process that it may undermine their turnout. Trump’s attacks on the outcome in Georgia badly hurt the Republicans, giving the Senate to the Democrats despite polls favoring the Republican candidates. He is already seeding doubts about the 2024 election.
The legal jeopardy Trump faces is a novel element both for voters and for him. He is feeling pressure of a type that he has never faced, has lost control of the news cycle and is handling it poorly. His attacks on the judge and the legal process are increasingly unhinged. Should he be convicted, there is no telling what he may do. Acquittal may be worse since it will embolden him.
Haven't read the whole column, but presumably, Tony Fabrizio was equally positive about Trump's chances in 2020? And the R's chances in 2018 and 2022?
Why are we interviewing Tony Fabrizio, please? The siren call of Trump?
Guys like Tony don’t interest Bulwark readers. He’s so full of shit his eyes are brown.
And Biden will win AZ so the whole article is pointless.
Can’t “like” this article. I don’t think it has any business in The Bulwark.
Are you saying The Bulwark shouldn't cover polls and/or the "horserace" at all? Or do you mean it shouldn't give exposure to analysts viewing the polls/horserace through a Trumpian lens. In general, I say let's keep our eyes and ears open to good and bad news, as long as it comes from credible sources.
I appreciate your comment and question. I don’t want to hear anything from a Trumpian POV. Certainly not from a pessimist who looks at his chances optimistically. Anyone who is campaigning, voting or has anything to do with Trump is not OK with me. It’s not. While he is a candidate for President, Trump is a non-person; a racist, misogynistic, xenophobic narcissistic sociopath who cheats, steals and lies and wants to be an authoritarian. I don’t want to acknowledge his existence except to the extent we have to. Those of us that read the Bulwark and other substacks are invested enough.
Understood. Our hearts are in the same place. Still, I'm hoping the readers of the Bulwark see themselves as participants in the fight against Trump, not just spectators. If the Bulwark editors see Fabrizio as an adversary whose point of view might be illuminating, let's hear from him and stave off complacency. Having said all that, I don't enjoy getting freaked out needlessly by gloom and doom, either. In this case, I found the piece more motivating than depressing. Thanks for clarifying! This can be a useful forum.
I know!