Trump Legal Team Pins Hopes on Hung Jury
Is one juror making eye contact to send signals to the defense—or “just doing that to fuck with us before they vote to convict”?
AS THE JURORS FILED into the Manhattan courtroom, day after day, almost none of them would look at Donald Trump. It’s one of those unsettling signs for defendants and their lawyers who worry about a guilty verdict.
Those worries have only grown in Trump’s orbit as allies have all but abandoned hope of acquittal. Even Trump, though he railed Monday on social media about the judge and the case, has privately sounded a note of resignation.
“Whatever happens happens,” Trump told one person recently. “I have no control.”
But there is one clear hope MAGAville clings to: a hung jury that results in a mistrial.
If that happens, Trump allies suspect that it will be chiefly due to the one juror who has made friendly eye contact with Trump from time to time as the jury enters the room and walks right past the defense table.
“There are eight people on that jury who definitely hate Trump. If there’s one person who doesn’t, it’s [this] juror,” said one court attendee who, like others for this story, relayed their observations on condition of anonymity to The Bulwark, which is also protecting the privacy and safety of the juror in question by not disclosing identifying details.
As the trial has progressed since April 15, these sources relate, this juror has appeared to nod along in seeming accordance with the defense at times. On other occasions, the juror has seemingly reacted favorably to and made eye contact with Trump’s congressional surrogates who began joining him in court in recent weeks.
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But even Trump’s most ardent allies acknowledge they’re speculating at best—trying to read tea leaves. A juror or jurors making friendly eye contact might simply be displaying good manners in court irrespective of how they are seriously weighing the evidence and considering their verdict.
“You just never know what people are thinking or what they’re gonna do,” said one Trump insider. “Yeah, the [juror] looks friendly. But maybe [the juror is] just doing that to fuck with us before they vote to convict.”
Whether the hopes about this juror are the result of wishful thinking or dispassionate analysis, the sentiment underscores a broad and growing feeling in Trump’s orbit that the best outcome he can hope for is a hung jury.
To the degree Trump is experiencing the stages of grief at trial, the way some are reading the body language of this juror might just be a type of psychological bargaining or even denial.
“They’re hoping for a single juror to give them a mistrial and they’re looking at tea leaves like ‘Are jurors making eye contact?’ as evidence that gives them hope. But no one knows,” said Mitchell Epner, a former federal prosecutor and New York City–based criminal defense attorney who’s closely monitoring the case. “Even if an oracle sometimes got it right, at the end of the day, they’re just looking at bird guts.”
It’s not just Trump allies who believe that at least one juror may look favorably on the defense.
“There’s one juror that people are worried about and I share the worry,” Harry Litman, a Democrat and former deputy attorney general, wrote Tuesday on X, adding he “can’t identify her or him per judge’s orders but seems less engaged and slightly irritable.”
But in the meantime, body-language augury has only grown in MAGAville.
“Whenever our allies or elected officials are in the courtroom, [the juror] sort of gets animated,” said one, noting how the person makes eye contact or gives “a smile or a nod” in the defense’s direction at times.
“When [Sen. J.D. Vance] came to court, that [juror’s] face lit up. It wasn’t the only time.”
That source said the juror also reacted favorably to Reps. Anna Paulina Luna, Lauren Boebert, Byron Donalds, and Matt Gaetz.
Another insider pointed out the juror could barely suppress a smile when Trump’s attorney, Todd Blanche, appeared to trip up Cohen on the witness stand during a heated exchange. Prior to that, Trump had expressed some displeasure with Blanche’s performance in court, which experts like Epner (and even some in Trump’s orbit) blame on the defendant, not the attorney.
“Todd is doing the best he can with the demands of you-know-who,” said one person familiar with Trump’s legal discussions. “This is a client issue.”
While they’re hoping for a mistrial, Trump’s legal team and allies are bracing for a conviction.
Trump plans to appeal immediately, and his presidential campaign already has fundraising appeals and merchandise ready to go, similar to the way it monetized Trump’s jail mugshot in his Georgia election interference case. Some wanted to sell jail-orange shirts (“orange after all is the new black,” said one insider), but that was deemed too edgy by others (“we don’t have to go there,” said another).
But there’s also a widespread belief in Trump’s orbit that, if convicted, he won’t see a prison cell. Legal experts say it’s a possibility. But no one is sure, and CBS News reported the Secret Service has met with local jail officials.
Throughout the trial, Trump advisers have nervously watched his poll numbers against President Biden and have been somewhat surprised that the former president maintains an inside-the-error-margin lead.
“What would a conviction do? We have no idea, but so far so good,” one adviser said. Polling still shows it would be a net negative for Trump.
A hung jury, the source added, would be “a win for us” echoing Trump’s penchant for always declaring victory anyway. “If they can’t get a conviction in Manhattan, what’s that say about the case? . . . Alvin Bragg can charge again, but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.”
Ughhhhh. My stomach just knotted up reading this. Hopefully, his/her fellow jurors will, during deliberations, rationally review all the evidence, follow the law (as charged by the judge) and convince any rogue juror to carry out his/her duties honorably notwithstanding any personal admiration of the defendant or his surrogates.
Erisian makes the only point about a "hung jury" that matters coupled with a fear of a rogue juror torpedoing the whole trial.
There are 34 different charges, each of which, in theory, can result in a unanimous finding of guilty which results in a finding of guilty for that charge only, not the whole trial unless ALL Charges receive unanimous votes of Guilty.
If all agree on Not Guilty for any of the 34 charges, that Charge ONLY is a not guilty finding. If only one juror votes Not Guilty on one Charge that Charge ONLY, is a hung vote on that Charge.
Clearly, you can have a mix and match where some Charges a unanimous Guilty, some are unaimous Not Guilty and some are a Hung vote, e.g., 10 Guilty Charges, 11 Not Guilty Charges, 13 Hung Charges, or whatever math you care to use to reach 34.