The Financial Times's Ed Luce joins to discuss the VP debate, the future of MAGA, and the Israel/Iran war.
Due to time constraints, there are no highlights / lowlights this week.
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Damon Linker
Linda Chavez
Writes Linda Chavez Subscribe
William Galston
Writes William Galston Subscribe
Mona Charen
I was introduced to Bill Galston by this podcast, and I very much appreciate his earnestness and erudition in matters of Democratic politics and policy. I would probably have been perfectly happy had Josh Shapiro been the selected VP candidate. I knew next-to-nothing about Shapiro, except that he was a popular governor and had a weak opponent when he won the governorship, and nothing about Walz. "How will we feel about the Walz pick if Kamala Harris loses Pennsylvania very narrowly?" Well, we will wonder if she might have won Pennsylvania, had she chosen Shapiro, perfectly true. But, as Galston himself points out, there can be no proof that Shapiro would have put Harris over the top, and there will always be a virtually infinite number of other factors that will have caused her to win or lose the state. We can't even know if the polling in Pennsylvania would be any different than it is now were Shapiro the VP candidate instead of Walz. And it would appear that the electorate did not react to Walz's debate performance in the same way as much of the Bulwark pundit class did.
In a somewhat similar hypothetical vein, Galston posits that any Israeli Prime Minister will have to assume that a nuclear-armed Iran will try to destroy Israel with a nuclear first strike and will thus be forced to prevent Iran militarily from obtaining the bomb. But this logic seems to require that any Israeli Prime Minister not consider Iran to be a rational actor who will avoid provoking radical military reaction by the US, for example, to an Iranian first nuclear strike against Israel. So I don't think Galston's logic on this point is persuasive either. On the other hand, it's probably true that no Israeli Prime Minister can assume that a nuclear-armed Iran would not try to destroy Israel in a first strike. But entertaining this dire prospect is not tantamount to assuming it to be a fait accompli.
[sighs] its nice to see Ed Luce on, sadly he curtails his words he facing four people that are israeli supporters, that he defers his words....no doubt , but he doesnt in his new article at least :-
https://www.ft.com/content/547c2d73-18f8-4af7-b49c-c916b7a9e12c?accessToken=zwAAAZJZg1Fjkc9UfC1zGPhK99O0nMkWt6nhLA.MEQCHxCwJXnk9RaEKQ3Ib3RFBstnUhtV2Lkjb6xn2a0a-LMCIQDp89NftAJY3Ul7-8CEXvsQRKr0IKz1z5fHin--mcV_QA&segmentId=e95a9ae7-622c-6235-5f87-51e412b47e97&shareType=enterprise&shareId=74276e61-79e9-4f21-a1e4-9951d10539e2
"Yet again, Netanyahu also wrongfooted the Biden administration. On countless occasions over the past year, Netanyahu has appeared to agree to one thing with Washington and done the opposite in practice. Whether it is wrangling's over the terms of a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release, or the more recent attempt at a 21-day ceasefire with Hezbollah, each time Biden is left looking impotent. “The Biden administration seems to be saying, ‘We’re suffering from a bit of autumn damp,’ ” says Pinkas. “No, this isn’t seasonal damp, it’s Netanyahu urinating all over you.”
but to address Mona and the crew points seen as they are reluctant to face this new reality of a israel with a leader bent on war...
1) Israel faces a existential threat:-
a) hamas has 30,000 troops[had] no airforce, no tanks , no heavy weapons
b) hezbollahs has 60-100,000 men, so armoured vehciles, no airforce, missiles of substance
c) iran is a significant threat, with many weapons buts it geographic location is a problem.
Hamas could inflict casualties, likewise so could hezbollah use its missilies but neither group could "invade israel and make a existential threat",for that would require a ground invasion and against near just under 2 million people under arms, if it needs be,thats not gonna happen? its just not a battle neither of these could win. Iran has the numbers granted, but it cant get them over to israel[not unless it invades other countries to do so-which has its own problems]it has the weapons systems to cause massive problems with its missiles thou.Equally the united states of america has promised israels security, so nobody is going to invade israel to make a existential threat,its just not going to happen.
2) Irans missiles, Mona implied they are no threat[as is the line by the israel government] promoting the weapons of the israeli defensive lines of 3 and with america's naval support but a remarkable number of the ballistic missiles did reach their targets...one of the aircraft bases reports that 33 struck it...most not in significate areas..but they did reach the target[see this blowup details of the base showing the damage if you dont beleive]
https://horsdoeuvresofbattle.blog/2024/10/04/imint-irans-strike-on-nevatim-airbase/.
Equally this does show some restraint for iran knows it can penetrate israels defences if it wishes? last time this was against military targets,iran warns that may not be so ,next time?
3)Hassan Nasrallah dead - israel sees it a great victory indeed the man committed many crimes..but it seems there is a fly on the ointment, as it seems that before the strike, whilst america and france were moving to a ceasefire agreement, they reached out to lebanon who talked to hezbollah who agreed to the ceasefire after being told israel was onboard.
Then the strike at hezbollah happened, probably as they were discussing the newly agreed ceasefire and needing to communicate in person with his commanders as communication devices were down.So it seems that america presented a ceasefire deal that hezbollah accepted, only to have them gather as israel launched their 85 old blockbuster bombs[dont worry about the civilian dead by the way?] killing the entire staff, to which you can thank american diplomacy getting them together? so that makes america complicit or just used by israel - either way nobody has much faith in trusting anything america says anymore?
https://x.com/MarquardtA/status/1841918360327749995
4) Linda mentioned dont send in the ground troops as the record of hsitory is not good, they have..and have asked to move upto the riverline...as gideon levy observed "first it will be limited, then it will be complicated and then we will be moving onto beirut".....current mission statement to the current ground mission has just recently expanded...i rather think gideon levy is spot on.
Mona mentioned the 60-100,000 israelis that forced this operation in lebanon that "justifes" it,so far there are 2,000 innocent civilians dead, and 1.2 million displaced in lebanon [the differences in scale as always are always on the otherside of israel], add in complications of the lebanon government troops[that hate hezbollah] but have been equipped by USA and trained by UK have come to blows[they see the invasion of lebanon as a threat]they might start fighting israel if they advance further-seeing it as a landgrab?..Equally some UN troops[irish troops] refuse to leave their positions on the border , as called to do so by IDF, might cause other problems?
https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2024/10/04/irish-peacekeepers-lebanon-latest-israel-invasion/
5) Ed luce himself looks towards the attack of Iranian oil - which iran have promised to attack american ally arab oil fields in return- can you imagine the cost of oil/barrel rise if this happens before the election? how will the american independant vote in this closest of elections?not to mention the anti-war campaigners[especially with americans on the ground and involved?after the first casualty?] add in those that trump will show how much money is being spent on israeli war and protections whilst trump blames biden and kamala and what do you think the result will be?[you worry about shapiro not being taken ,how will these other factors feature?]
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/03/oil-prices-could-soar-if-israel-targets-irans-energy-infrastructure.html
6)Press - no independant press are allowed into gaza, Al jazzara in israel is shutdown, and has now been ordered shutdown in the westbank[not their terrority], how do we see the press functioning Lebanon?
"At least 28 on-duty medics have been killed in the past 24 hours in Lebanon, according to the WHO. Sky's is on the ground in Beirut where rescue workers say they are falling victim to Israeli airstrikes."
it seems israelis are targeting aid workers, not once, not twice but even when the red cross[the third group of aidworkers arrive to help the wounded? its not a great look as the IDF drone directs things overhead?
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1842244848771805378
7) Diplomacy - its seems for the most part, most experts agree that with their next PM , that iran doesnt want a war[they have enough internal problems], even at the UN:-
"Jordanian FM - offers Israel what all its leaders only dreamed of, out loud, in public– and Israel media doesn't even report on it. Netanyahu, it goes without saying, has made no comment beyond congratulating himself for engorging his cabinet"
https://x.com/NTarnopolsky/status/1840755473953231180
There are numerous videos showing Bibi's character and indeed his intent to foster war on iraq /iran[see old sentate hearings] and make isreal the hegemony of the middle-east, if only america could help him defeat iraq and iran...even as far as the other day his statement where provoking iran to action [after the numerous assassinations] that iran will be liberated and its people will be free. Other join in the smelling of blood and war:-
https://x.com/DakeOcansey/status/1841757657293545623
Bennett: "Now is the time that we can attack because Iran is fully vulnerable. It's time to hit and destroy the nuclear program."
Even as far as your panels such statements of "if iran gets in position of destroying us,they will", "blind destructive hate"...but most people see all the destruction is being done by israel..even as far as Hezbollah, the rocket fire was perhaps to be condemned as they started it, but the rockets were generally ineffective with little casualties[poor missiles,no targeting,iron doom protections], the missiles fire in response every month by israel were generally five to six times as much and much more destructive?[graph shows the difference on this article - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv2gj544x65o]
/1
The first time the words "Gideon" and "Levy" have appeared sequentially on The Bulwark ... and sadly, probably the last.
The individual (nor his views) will ever be platformed on The Bulwark, whose viewers will be much poorer for it.
+1 follow.
8) Economy - Israels economy is bad , war is bad for business and like most business , its hard to maintain a good economy and israel is no exception :-
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/04/economy/israel-economy-war-impact/index.html
https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024-09-20/ty-article-opinion/.premium/war-is-bad-for-israels-economy-arrogant-hedonistic-smotrich-is-making-it-worse/00000192-0b4c-d543-ab9f-2f7ed34d0000
https://themedialine.org/life-lines/economist-warns-israels-war-costs-could-reach-10-of-gdp-raising-urgent-challenges/
Much investment has been switched from israel to outside countris, hi tech is worried as israel has lost its coal supplier, and electrical supplies may suffer,hi tech businesses need 24 hours electrical coverage lest their servers go down..so many are leaving or looking to leave, that not including the food industry or tourist industry?
Summary
Alright i grant you the Iranian religious leader the other day was more bellicose and more aggressive in his views towards israel but that is because he is facing israelis strike in retailiation...and there has come to a point if israel is equally serious that iran will get serious as well....and when that happens&you find that the israelis defences are not as good as you were lead to believe , remember it was you and your fellows[ladies as well] that thought to strike when the iron was hot, that israel should pushed things over the line[as i think bibi will do]
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/benjamin-netanyahu-middle-east-us-election-b2624094.html [Democrats fear Netanyahu is pushing his Middle East war to influence the US election]
.... and when you are a week before a election, with soaring gaz prices, and american casualties , and kamala losing in the polls, dont complain about losing american democracy[that you tell us you all favour] because you and yours&biden brought this on yourselfs :( you [but mainly bibi]made a choice, that israeli unconditional support and hurting iran was a better thing to be done, than protecting american democracy.....but i suppose like in all things, most conservatives will find a way to blame somebody else....[i see this with trump supporters alot as well]
https://x.com/academic_la/status/1842641807056031882
one thing to add to mona's early rant about trump not wanting violence, i seem to remember from the committee meeting headed by Liz Cheney where that eloquent young lady mentioned about the metal detectors going off for trumps speech outside the capital and trump saying to the fbi/secret service asking him to let his followers in with weapons, for the weapons where not gonna be used against him?
Linker nails it at 30:00. Vance isn't the candidate!
Another grest episode. Thanks for the discussion on Israel. Sobering, to be sure, but as clear minded as anything to be found in domestic media.
Damon may have been impressed by Vance's performance - and it was a performance - but I was not. Vance is public enemy #2. I won't belabor the point with a rant.
But I'll agree with him about his assessment of Israel's strength. Israel has a golden opportunity to correct Iran's course, but there are risks. There could be serious transborder environmental concerns trying to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities. It's likely far below ground, but unclear. There could be even more concerns if Iran detonated a nuclear bomb over Israel. It doesn't have to land. A nuclear bomb could explode before Israel's defense could disable it. Iran used to be a somewhat progressive country. Imagine if this terrorist country suddenly became a model for Islamic reformation. *That* is what the world needs.
Unfortunately, Israel must act. And the U.S. must be there to help them. I think Harris will be OK. She's clearly triangulating with the pro-Islamist left. I don't believe she is their ally. We need to excoriate the Jew haters and the Israel haters much harder than we have.
Damon, how do you suppose Vance was radicalized from a normie to a MAGA-enthusiast espousing fascistic ideals? As you stated, the shift came once Vance was truly enmeshed in Thiel's world. Luce is correct, that timing isn't a coincidence.
Thiel is an incredibly smart, malevolent man. Though Vance is smart, his obvious insecurity would make him easy pickings for a man like Thiel.
Hey guys, have any of you read Project 2025? That’s where this “censorship” fetish is coming from. It’s popping up all over. Same with the phrase “conscience rights,” which is code for refusal to participate in reproductive health care. Don’t sleepwalk through this culture shift.
Yes, thank you for saying so.
It's playing on the Christian Nationalist persecution fetish which, according to Tim Alberta in his latest book, is also being preached from the pulpit.
Two things:
1. Walz's distaster word salad response to his China "misrepresentation." Has anyone seen this sound-bited? Probably not, because it was non-sensical! I'd love to think he did it on purpose, but... probably not.
2. Walz's best moment being at the end of the debate. Anyone know who Scott Norwood is? Scott Norwood missed a 47-yard field goal attempt in the final seconds of Super Bowl XXV which gave the New York Giants a 20-19 victory. Nobody remembers who scored the other 39 points in that game, but if you are an NFL fan, you know who Scott Norwood is because his miss was AT THE END OF THE GAME.
Sometimes last is best.
Mona totally rocked in this episode. You go girl! More is more.
I have to beg to differ with Damon Linker. Vance is ten times scarier than Trump. He is sponsored by Theil and Kevin Roberts (the fog murderer) and god knows who else. If that guy is president we are cooked. Or even Vice President. He’s definitely handing Ukraine to Putin with out beating a guy lined baby blue.
Where Vance got upset about being fact checked, saying something like there was not supposed to be any fact checking, indicates that he thought he had cart Blanche for his stream of lies. It was a very disturbing debate.
While Vance may have 'won' the debate - I do not care. I think it was Jim Messina on the Daily Pod who said that the last piece of advice Walz received was be yourself. Walz is reportedly the kind of person who can find common ground with anyone, so that was what he was doing. Who would we rather actually have as Vice President? A man who can get along with everyone or a man who is currently wearing the persona of a sociopath? Debates are a certain kind of skill having not much to do with governing.
Walz would be a good partner to Congress for key legislation.
The polls are so herded they nearly have a bottleneck effect.
If you honestly believe that every reputable poll is tied without tinkering by pollsters who don’t want to be outliers, you are in the wrong business.
1. Walz won per every post-debate poll and his favorability jumped 23 points to +37.
Vance screamed upward to -3.
2. The only thing anyone except pundits will remember out of this debate is Vance refusing to drop the Big Lie, which American voters are so sick of. That’s why it was a Harris ad the next AM.
Saying, “You promised not to fact-check me,” is probably second and ought to be on t-shirts.
3. These debates never, ever move the needle.
4. Only The Bulwark still thinks having Shapiro would have been a plus. As a Jew he’d have been “Genocide Josh” before the sun set on the first day of the campaign. Additionally, he’s so smart but he talks like Obama and Obama is not a terrific debater. That’s why his staff call Shapiro “Baruch Obama.”
5. The idea that Trump looks better because his VP pick refused to answer questions (a fact noted by all of the polled voters in the immediate post-debate polls) is just so silly and I’m embarrassed for Bill for saying it. It is permitted to remain silent.
6. I’m always skeptical of Luce. If he were actually an American citizen I suspect he’d be voting for Trump. But he’s not. And he’s a member of the British peerage and will be a baron when his father dies, ffs. Of course he “sides with the elites.”
Bill G, stop it about Josh S v Tim W. it's a juvenile told you so. also, don't be an apologist for Vance who is just another con man.
I'm with Damon - Trump is a unique threat, and just about anybody else, including J.D. Vance, would be a lesser evil.
* Trump is an authentic nihilist. Vance can pander to nihilists, but it's not who he is.
* Trump is a cult leader. Most of the cultists would not accept Vance as a substitute for their idol - they would not do a coup to keep Vance in office.
* Trump is lazy, stupid, and incompetent. Vance is none of those things, which means he could execute the normal, day-to-day duties of his office - duties Trump often neglected or flubbed. This might make Vance more energetic in undermining democracy, but who can say he would not undergo another chameleon-like transformation once Trump is out of the way?
The only person I can think of who might be as bad as Trump is Tucker Carlson. He can check the nihilist and cult leader boxes. While he is not stupid, I suspect he is lazy - that's probably why he has not seemed interested in running for office, which would require more work than being a Twitter pundit.
Vance is a slick, snake-oil salesman and a fascist. If trump wins and Project 2025 is implemented, it will be Vance implementing it and he could be around for a long time. We must win in November.
I’m Switzerland on this. JD Vance is a mythical creature existing exclusive of any actual human characteristic or emotion.
Would he revert to The Atlantic contributor personality he once had if Trump dropped dead? Maybe. Would he contest a lost election? Possibly, but more likely not. It would be horrifically embarrassing and his wife actually loves him and would counsel against it, I think.
He barely won OH. MAGA don’t believe he’s MAGA enough. Maybe I’m stupid but I think there was an occasional glimmer of true Vulcan mind meld the other night. Vance is not a good person, at all, but even a bad man can be a good father. His love for his wife and family is clear. Same with Tim Walz. I believe that Vance was sincere in his shock and sympathy at the news that Gus
Walz witnessed a shooting.
OTOH, he’s a really bad man, has converted to some weird Catholic sect, and espouses the New Right. I think The Bulwark overvalues his intelligence. He was accepted to Yale Law at least in part due to geography (a big part, I suspect) and was a mediocre student with no real love for the law.
All of that said, I lean toward the idea that no one is worse than Trump.
I thought jd won the debate but I am awful at predicting what independents want or respond too.
I also would have loved for Tim to relentlessly attack Vance. It would have made me feel good. I just am not sure it is productive. Trump’s negatives are backed in. I just don’t see how doing the same thing dems have been doing for 4 years will somehow now work.
I disagree with the panel that fact checking Vance would have been productive. He was spewing so many lies I just don’t know if telling the truth would have been effective. I mean who really wins when jd says Trump saved Obamacare and Tim says “he literally tried repeal it 100 times.” I don’t think people would find that argument (1) entertaining or (2) revealing.
Like I said though I have zero idea how anyone could (1) vote for Trump and (2) be undecided.
I totally agree with you that verbal beatdowns are not productive in the long run.
I mean I love them. They make me feel good when Tim and co give a verbal beatdown of Trump. However, I would vote for a rock over Trump so I’m not a real good judge on how “undecideds” make choices especially now when this seems SOOOOOOO clear.
@BillGalston while Josh Shapiro may have been a better debate person than Tim Walz; however, Tim Walz is more appealing to the American public than another elite lawyer. I am not sure this debate moved the needle in any direction and to blame Harris/Walz if trump wins is absurd. The blame lies on the media who has done nothing but focus on trump, the ignorant, and desperate, American public that thinks trump is their savior, the uneducated who know little to nothing about the world around them, those are some of the people to blame. This race should not be this close but it is and it is frightening and depressing.
Love the conversation on this episode--the conversations on this pod are always good--but I would just add a note of caution regarding the suggestions of taking any opportunities at doing decapitation strikes against the Iranian regime. The power vacuum that a thing like that produces does not often lead to better outcomes on the other end. Let's not forget that what replaced Saddam Hussein was AQI and ISIS. Terror groups love a good power vacuum becomes it gives them an opening to take power, and there are groups out there that would be way worse for Israel than the IRGC is. It could also change the dynamic of the Sunni side of the Near East opening up to normalizing relations with Israel when they see Israel engineering governments in the region by military force. If it could happen to Iran it could happen to them too right? They may not like Israel setting that kind of precedent.
Excellent notes by Linda Chavez on the subject of immigration during the debate. Like her, I was waiting for Walz to hit Vance on the inflationary repercussions of mass-deportation. If we have housing inflation because we're short on inventory, how does deporting the workforce that builds our homes help bring up housing inventory? If we're trying to keep prices at the grocery store from inflating further, how does deporting the work force who harvests our crops and works at our meat packing plants help keep those grocery prices from inflating?
I agree with you about Linda's point, and my own disappointment that Walz didn't point out that deportation would be both inflationary but make the housing crisis worse. And of course your add about the effect of the loss of agricultural workers. Not to mention other service jobs in hospitality, landscaping, health care, or any other service that requires a lot of people to do the work. Vance's former hillbilly neighbors are not clamoring for those jobs. He isn't either. That's why he ran away from it as soon as he could.
Well tariffs duh! Those economists are just stupid. They don’t have the big Trump brain. /s
More seriously, I genuinely think Vance and other more ideological types in the new right want to devalue the USD, make us more of an exporter and bring manufacturing back. The first is chaotic, the second is more noble but there’s casualties along the way. I bet you’d see lots of happy middle America folks at first, with those jobs returning, but you’d have to pay below minimum wage to compete with SE Asia soooooooo yeah.
It should be very clear, although people seem to forget it, that Project 2025 is what the entire conservative community including trump and vance are committed to.
It would make Iraq look like child’s play. This whole situation is a clusterfuck
One comment that caught my interest came from Mr. Galstone (05:25) who suggested that Mr. Trump benefits from Mr. Vance’s debate performance. Perhaps, but now the Ds have a completed audio record of Mr. Vance’s opinions covering pre-conversion and post-conversion, pre-debate and debate.
While Mr. Trump is a six-foot dodgeball, which nobody can disable; Mr. Vance is the German battleship Bismark with a broken rudder.
Mona: Re: China Question. It’s great when you speak in ALL CAPS. More!
I just love Tim so much when he speaks his heart about JD Vance.
Small point: Vance opened saying "either of us are." I did not go to Yale. I have not written a best-selling book.
I love this panel!! I wish you could be the moderators- or at least have editorial approval of the questions asked. I miss the days when The League of Women Voters conducted the debates. Nowadays it seems these events are for media ratings. I believe voters who watched saw through the slick deception of Vance. He showed as a politician whereas Walz seemed more statesmanlike. Walz was a bit rough for sure but that authenticity is more mainstream in our society. The election is close for sure so we are all on edge. I am a Pennsylvania girl and adore Josh Shapiro and I agree he would have conducted a masterclass debating Vance. We could all feel better to have Vance exposed. But not sure the campaign was targeting our demographic. The middle of Pennsylvania is more like Walz than Vance. Thank you so much for your excellent discussion!!!
Vance is an utter sophist. Americans seem to adore sophism, including our political pundits.
On my bingo card I had the over/under on when the first mention of Governor Shapiro would occur at about 10 minutes. The fact that it occurred at the 26 minute mark, showed some restraint. Tim Miller's words about letting go of your preferred VP choice, keep coming back to haunt these conversations. Though I am not sure how exactly that version of the debate would have looked, given what is happening in Israel. As much as I liked the chameleon comparison, I think the Eddie Haskell comparison is probably more accurate, I believe that Sara's focus groups will show that to be true. JD Vance comes across as too slick by half and no one is buying it.
Unlike you I was surprised Shapiro was mentioned. Unnecessarily self serving in my opinion. I’m with Tim Miller.
That "decent" guy should take a field trip to Alington Cemetery and look out at the 400,000 graves and reflect on the fact that he is willing to piss on them in the servitude of a criminal. Then that "decent" guy should hop a flight to Normandy, France and do the same to the 9,388 graves of US soldiers who died protecting all that he and his cult master want to obliterate.
Harris-Walz should expand their messaging on 'the rich pay their fair share': the 1% practice buy-borrow-die (tax loophole) - Elon Musk borrowed against his Tesla shares to buy Twitter. We should tax large $ asset-backed loan proceeds (possibly at earned-income rates). Effectively that approach carves-out which unrealized gains are fair game to tax.
Oohhhh, great idea!