Taking the pulse on the electorate, I don't think the trans issue is as niche as the center-left thinks it is.
Trump and MAGA have caught and ridden the wave on a number of issues that moderates have been dismissive of. One such issue is the discontent of the working class with liberal policies and politicians who they think don't care about them.
Rather than being dismissive, we may want to try to gain new perspective on such issues, to grok why they're so important to many people.
Any Establishment or near establishment GoP politician that thinks they are going to have a meaningful voice in the post-Trump GoP is fooling themselves. You need to start a new perty and work your way out of the wilderness. But that isn't going to happen.
When Trump dies, his potential successors battle for the votes of the Base. These people already backstab each other regularly. The Trump aftermath will be worse as each potential successor works to establish their bona fides as the One True Magat.
And Trump isn't going to "lose" the election will have been stolen from him, which means another several years of extreme behavior, lies, and denial--until he dies. even if he goes to jail.. "railroaded by the corrupt DoJ."
In order for a loss to have a substantive effect in determining the behavior of the party, it has to actually be acknowledged as a loss. NOT going to happen.
It is going to be a kiddie pool full of starved pirahnas with a bucket of chum thrown in.
The Trump mafia/grift family is going to work hard to maintain their hold, while the Pretenders work to overthrow them (and each other).
There is some small chance for some kind of agreement to be worked out behind the scenes, but these people aren't the type to do that or to stick to it, if it is made.
Really tired of the whole trans thing, TBH. It is a tiny segment of the population. I also don't care about the whole sports thing. Literally do not care.
It isn't an actual burning issue except in the mids of people whop have been fed a stream of BS for far too long.
From an analytical standpoint, Mitt isn't so far wrong: if Trump wins, he will have zero influence, as he does now. The chances his endorsement of Harris prevents Trump's win are almost as small. On the other hand, he may have some chance to do what he wants if Trump loses, though he's probably deluded about that.
Re "Republican hawks are indignant that Israel is being dictated to at all" - they're acting like the US is NOT sending $3.8 billiion to Israel every year.
Benjamin Parker writes that "Donald Trump has had at least seven private phone conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin." Obviously, I haven't read Woodward's as-yet unreleased book, but the NYT article you linked to does not say that. It says an aide told Woodward that Trump may have spoken with Putin "perhaps as many as seven" times.
I worry about the purpose of ANY contact between Trump and Putin but accuracy matters, and there's a world of difference between "at least seven" and "perhaps as many as seven" contacts.
The gay/trans/out discussion has an interesting parallel to the decision making process about who is saying who they're going to vote for and why.
Let me put it this way. If you're a republican who's gay and WANTING to come out of the closet and vote for a black woman even though she's not on your team guess what? It's okay. You coming out might help others do the same. It's up to your friends to figure out whether they can deal with you or not. If they can't, you need new friends
This isn't difficult. Don't overthink it. Unlike going trans...it's not a one way street.
Regarding the Trump campaign focusing on trans ads and turning the brazenness of their lying up to 11, it seems to me that the Trump campaign is gambling that there are enough bad people, or perhaps that they can turn enough people bad, that their strategy of appealing to people's worst instincts is better than trying to reach out to swing voters on more standard lies based on the economy.
In Missouri, former U.S. Senator Jack Danforth is taking an approach similar to Romney's although not going as far. He has endorsed a third-party candidate for senate named Jared Young because of policy disputes with the Democratic candidate. Josh Hawley was and is a willing Trump enabler. Danforth will not endorse or vote for Harris because he wants to be able to shape the Republican Party after Trump. Danforth will be long dead before the Republican Party returns to the party of Ronald Reagan, if ever. In my view, there is no version of salvaging this version of the Republican Party.
My out of state Senate race adoption is Lucas Kunce, because my disdain for Josh Hawley is off the charts. Probably a waste of effort, but I figure the other races are well funded. Kunce would be a fine addition to the Senate body.
Not related to this post but comments aren’t open on Sam Stein and Marc Caputo’s latest about Haley supporters that are supporting CFT at lower levels than last election. Towards the end, there’s this little peach about why Nikki hasn’t appeared in public with t****:
“Haley has said she is willing to take on the task. She recently told CBS’s Face the Nation that the former president “knows I’m on standby . . . but there hasn’t been an ask as of yet.”
Of course not. Because he doesn’t want her help. He wants her dignity. He wants her groveling at his feet, declaring she’s “on standby” and just waiting for him to say the word and she will come running. Proper penance must be paid for the mortal sin of crossing Dear Leader, no matter how fleeting the transgressions!
F***ing disgusting. Nikki Haley, how can you look at yourself in the mirror. You are revolting.
The brave stance of Mitt Romney - oh, just wait and see, shall we? - seems to be the go-to for Republicans these days: Let someone else do the heavy lifting. Trump hints at violence … by the faithful, not himself. Non-rabid Republicans peek, from the sidelines, at Cheney and Kinzinger. Silence = inertia.
You forgot to mention a pertinent fact about Romney - he's 77. If he thinks he'll have any input into a post-Trump party, assuming he's alive, he's delusional in the extreme. For younger guys like Kaisch, etc., I'm sure that's why they're not saying they're voting for Harris.
Right Eva. I think he's a little high on his own supply. Isn't he out after his term finishes? Why not go out with a bang and endorse Harris, right?
I just can't with these people that make up some lame excuse like it's a principle but are wedging their foot in the door to keep it open. Like an obnoxious salesman.
Good catch by Marc Caputo. "It’s pretty astounding that a presidential campaign, and a political party, are so focused on this niche issue. But is it smart politics—a way of capturing concerns about Democrats’ capture by the cultural left—or desperation, a sign the big issues Republicans were counting on aren’t working as the GOP had hoped? And even if the ads test well, will people actually vote on trans rights? Democrats, who are avoiding engaging, are betting not. But we really don’t know."
The Trump campaign strikes me more every day like the wicked witch of the west getting doused with water. "Ahhh you cursed brat (Kamala? :) ). Look what you've done. I'm melting, melting. Ohhh what a world, what a world. Who would have thought that some little girl like you (damn Kamala again?) could destroy my beautiful wickedness. Ohhhh NO! I'm going. Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!"
People are realizing the spike in crime happened on Trump's watch and has largely been corrected. People now trust Kamala more on the economy. Fear has always been the Republican go to boogey man as long as I've been a voter (1972). I don't think it is going to work this time. Let's get Kamala/Walz to 55%.
BTW, the trans ads do tie in crime and immigration. Popular Information has an interesting viewpoint on "every problem Trump wrongfully blames on undocumented immigrants." A really enlightening read.
Taking the pulse on the electorate, I don't think the trans issue is as niche as the center-left thinks it is.
Trump and MAGA have caught and ridden the wave on a number of issues that moderates have been dismissive of. One such issue is the discontent of the working class with liberal policies and politicians who they think don't care about them.
Rather than being dismissive, we may want to try to gain new perspective on such issues, to grok why they're so important to many people.
Any Establishment or near establishment GoP politician that thinks they are going to have a meaningful voice in the post-Trump GoP is fooling themselves. You need to start a new perty and work your way out of the wilderness. But that isn't going to happen.
When Trump dies, his potential successors battle for the votes of the Base. These people already backstab each other regularly. The Trump aftermath will be worse as each potential successor works to establish their bona fides as the One True Magat.
And Trump isn't going to "lose" the election will have been stolen from him, which means another several years of extreme behavior, lies, and denial--until he dies. even if he goes to jail.. "railroaded by the corrupt DoJ."
In order for a loss to have a substantive effect in determining the behavior of the party, it has to actually be acknowledged as a loss. NOT going to happen.
It is going to be a kiddie pool full of starved pirahnas with a bucket of chum thrown in.
The Trump mafia/grift family is going to work hard to maintain their hold, while the Pretenders work to overthrow them (and each other).
There is some small chance for some kind of agreement to be worked out behind the scenes, but these people aren't the type to do that or to stick to it, if it is made.
Really tired of the whole trans thing, TBH. It is a tiny segment of the population. I also don't care about the whole sports thing. Literally do not care.
It isn't an actual burning issue except in the mids of people whop have been fed a stream of BS for far too long.
From an analytical standpoint, Mitt isn't so far wrong: if Trump wins, he will have zero influence, as he does now. The chances his endorsement of Harris prevents Trump's win are almost as small. On the other hand, he may have some chance to do what he wants if Trump loses, though he's probably deluded about that.
Re "Republican hawks are indignant that Israel is being dictated to at all" - they're acting like the US is NOT sending $3.8 billiion to Israel every year.
Benjamin Parker writes that "Donald Trump has had at least seven private phone conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin." Obviously, I haven't read Woodward's as-yet unreleased book, but the NYT article you linked to does not say that. It says an aide told Woodward that Trump may have spoken with Putin "perhaps as many as seven" times.
I worry about the purpose of ANY contact between Trump and Putin but accuracy matters, and there's a world of difference between "at least seven" and "perhaps as many as seven" contacts.
The gay/trans/out discussion has an interesting parallel to the decision making process about who is saying who they're going to vote for and why.
Let me put it this way. If you're a republican who's gay and WANTING to come out of the closet and vote for a black woman even though she's not on your team guess what? It's okay. You coming out might help others do the same. It's up to your friends to figure out whether they can deal with you or not. If they can't, you need new friends
This isn't difficult. Don't overthink it. Unlike going trans...it's not a one way street.
Or you can just vote for Harris and not say anything. It is a SECRET ballot.
Regarding the Trump campaign focusing on trans ads and turning the brazenness of their lying up to 11, it seems to me that the Trump campaign is gambling that there are enough bad people, or perhaps that they can turn enough people bad, that their strategy of appealing to people's worst instincts is better than trying to reach out to swing voters on more standard lies based on the economy.
As in Monty Python: Brave Brave Sir Mitt. He chickened out, he ran away, he hid his head. Brave Brave Sir Mitt.
In Missouri, former U.S. Senator Jack Danforth is taking an approach similar to Romney's although not going as far. He has endorsed a third-party candidate for senate named Jared Young because of policy disputes with the Democratic candidate. Josh Hawley was and is a willing Trump enabler. Danforth will not endorse or vote for Harris because he wants to be able to shape the Republican Party after Trump. Danforth will be long dead before the Republican Party returns to the party of Ronald Reagan, if ever. In my view, there is no version of salvaging this version of the Republican Party.
My out of state Senate race adoption is Lucas Kunce, because my disdain for Josh Hawley is off the charts. Probably a waste of effort, but I figure the other races are well funded. Kunce would be a fine addition to the Senate body.
D: Hello, Vlad? It's me. I'm calling about that document you wanted.
V. The one about the submarines.
D. Yeah, that one. I can't find it, but it may still be in the other bathroom. Or
maybe I gave it to that red-headed guy from Australia. He was a
great guy - very smart - came to visit me at Mar-a -Lago.
V. ....
D. You still there?
V. You called to tell me only this?
D. Well, there is one other thing.
V. What?
D. You remember those Covid tests I sent you? When you were worried about getting sick??
V. You were supposed to keep that quiet.
D. I tried but Bob Woodward tricked me.
V. ....
D. You still there?
V. Don't talk to Woodward again.
D. I won't, I promise. He's a smart guy, though, very smart.
V. Don't call me again until after the election.
D. OK, but there's one other thing.
V. What.
D. I need you to tell me that if I lose, you're still willing to help me ,like, "relocate," OK?
V. Click.
Not related to this post but comments aren’t open on Sam Stein and Marc Caputo’s latest about Haley supporters that are supporting CFT at lower levels than last election. Towards the end, there’s this little peach about why Nikki hasn’t appeared in public with t****:
“Haley has said she is willing to take on the task. She recently told CBS’s Face the Nation that the former president “knows I’m on standby . . . but there hasn’t been an ask as of yet.”
Of course not. Because he doesn’t want her help. He wants her dignity. He wants her groveling at his feet, declaring she’s “on standby” and just waiting for him to say the word and she will come running. Proper penance must be paid for the mortal sin of crossing Dear Leader, no matter how fleeting the transgressions!
F***ing disgusting. Nikki Haley, how can you look at yourself in the mirror. You are revolting.
< Nikki Haley, how can you look at yourself in the mirror. You are revolting.
Because the mirror shows her in the White House
The delusion of power
The brave stance of Mitt Romney - oh, just wait and see, shall we? - seems to be the go-to for Republicans these days: Let someone else do the heavy lifting. Trump hints at violence … by the faithful, not himself. Non-rabid Republicans peek, from the sidelines, at Cheney and Kinzinger. Silence = inertia.
More reaching into the corners, like the Pfeiffer interview, please.
You forgot to mention a pertinent fact about Romney - he's 77. If he thinks he'll have any input into a post-Trump party, assuming he's alive, he's delusional in the extreme. For younger guys like Kaisch, etc., I'm sure that's why they're not saying they're voting for Harris.
Right Eva. I think he's a little high on his own supply. Isn't he out after his term finishes? Why not go out with a bang and endorse Harris, right?
I just can't with these people that make up some lame excuse like it's a principle but are wedging their foot in the door to keep it open. Like an obnoxious salesman.
Good catch by Marc Caputo. "It’s pretty astounding that a presidential campaign, and a political party, are so focused on this niche issue. But is it smart politics—a way of capturing concerns about Democrats’ capture by the cultural left—or desperation, a sign the big issues Republicans were counting on aren’t working as the GOP had hoped? And even if the ads test well, will people actually vote on trans rights? Democrats, who are avoiding engaging, are betting not. But we really don’t know."
The Trump campaign strikes me more every day like the wicked witch of the west getting doused with water. "Ahhh you cursed brat (Kamala? :) ). Look what you've done. I'm melting, melting. Ohhh what a world, what a world. Who would have thought that some little girl like you (damn Kamala again?) could destroy my beautiful wickedness. Ohhhh NO! I'm going. Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!"
People are realizing the spike in crime happened on Trump's watch and has largely been corrected. People now trust Kamala more on the economy. Fear has always been the Republican go to boogey man as long as I've been a voter (1972). I don't think it is going to work this time. Let's get Kamala/Walz to 55%.
BTW, the trans ads do tie in crime and immigration. Popular Information has an interesting viewpoint on "every problem Trump wrongfully blames on undocumented immigrants." A really enlightening read.
https://popular.info/p/every-problem-trump-wrongfully-blames?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=nblx&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email