Share this comment
Josh Marshall of talkingpointsmemo.com mentioned "DataTrust" as the GOP source and custodian of voter data.
From there: look at thedatatrust.com/state-…
I can't post a chart DataTrust displays there, but follow along anyway. The chart displays for each election cycle the percentage of Democrats, Other and Republicans that turned out to vot…
Josh Marshall of TalkingPointsMemo.com mentioned "DataTrust" as the GOP source and custodian of voter data.
From there: look at https://thedatatrust.com/state-brief-pennsylvania/
I can't post a chart DataTrust displays there, but follow along anyway. The chart displays for each election cycle the percentage of Democrats, Other and Republicans that turned out to vote in Pennsylvania.
First look at the 2020 figures. Per DataTrust, the Dems turned out their voters at 73.4% and the GOP turned out theirs at 80.8%. The GOP had a 7.4% advantage.
Yet Biden won PA by 1.17% of the vote.
Next, take a look at the 2022 figures. The GOP had a 6.9% advantage turning out their voters over the Democrats (69.0% to 62.1%).
Yet the Democrats won the governorship and the Senate seat.
It really boils down to Get Out The Vote. This is assuming that the "Other" category split their vote in 2024 similarly to 2020 and 2022, and there is not a lot of reason to suppose that they won't. If the Dems can get as a percentage as many of their voters to the polls as the GOP, then IMO the Dems' victory is assured per GOP's own data (of course, what reliance you can put on GOP data?)
Close some of the 6-7% lead the GOP has over the Democrats in turning out their voters, and win!
Another way of looking it is that the Dems have more headroom to grow than the GOP. Exploit that! Can the GOP can possible muster the 80.8% enthusiasm of 2020 in 2024?
So, Sarah, JVL and Time, all the best in your efforts to inch the Democratic vote up and the Other and Republican columns to vote Democratic!