No lie, my cope is going to be a weeklong silent meditation retreat Oct 15-22, absolutely no tv, radio, phone, or computer. I’ll be back for the election, but I’ll be tuned to the key of life.
I'm glad to see that Liz Cheney came to Wisconsin and put both meat on the bones and her boots on the ground in our swing state. I wish I could say the same about the Bulwark staff, highlighting their upcoming visits to Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Detroit.
Pennsylvania ... check. Michigan ... check. Wisconsin ... pass. Apparently Milwaukee and/or Madison aren't worthy. Or our beer and cheese are not sufficiently tasty. It is disappointing that in a state where every vote matters, in an election that is too close to call and too close for comfort, they continue to skip our part of the nation and help it earn its unwanted reputation as Flyover Country.
Food for thought when I get my next e-mail for subscription renewal.
I can't post a chart DataTrust displays there, but follow along anyway. The chart displays for each election cycle the percentage of Democrats, Other and Republicans that turned out to vote in Pennsylvania.
First look at the 2020 figures. Per DataTrust, the Dems turned out their voters at 73.4% and the GOP turned out theirs at 80.8%. The GOP had a 7.4% advantage.
Yet Biden won PA by 1.17% of the vote.
Next, take a look at the 2022 figures. The GOP had a 6.9% advantage turning out their voters over the Democrats (69.0% to 62.1%).
Yet the Democrats won the governorship and the Senate seat.
It really boils down to Get Out The Vote. This is assuming that the "Other" category split their vote in 2024 similarly to 2020 and 2022, and there is not a lot of reason to suppose that they won't. If the Dems can get as a percentage as many of their voters to the polls as the GOP, then IMO the Dems' victory is assured per GOP's own data (of course, what reliance you can put on GOP data?)
Close some of the 6-7% lead the GOP has over the Democrats in turning out their voters, and win!
Another way of looking it is that the Dems have more headroom to grow than the GOP. Exploit that! Can the GOP can possible muster the 80.8% enthusiasm of 2020 in 2024?
So, Sarah, JVL and Time, all the best in your efforts to inch the Democratic vote up and the Other and Republican columns to vote Democratic!
See my Wisconsin comment elsewhere here. I realize that they cannot go everywhere, and choices need to be made. Nevertheless it is interesting how they so regularly skip our area when making travel plans, as if we are a hotbed for plague. It is getting tired.
YEAH BABY! "DEEEEEtroit area." That's roughly Flint/Lansing/Detroit in a big triangle! :) The Silverdome! Combine it with Monster Tractors!
Akkkk...You come to Da Burgh and I'm out of town that day!
No lie, my cope is going to be a weeklong silent meditation retreat Oct 15-22, absolutely no tv, radio, phone, or computer. I’ll be back for the election, but I’ll be tuned to the key of life.
I'm glad to see that Liz Cheney came to Wisconsin and put both meat on the bones and her boots on the ground in our swing state. I wish I could say the same about the Bulwark staff, highlighting their upcoming visits to Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Detroit.
Pennsylvania ... check. Michigan ... check. Wisconsin ... pass. Apparently Milwaukee and/or Madison aren't worthy. Or our beer and cheese are not sufficiently tasty. It is disappointing that in a state where every vote matters, in an election that is too close to call and too close for comfort, they continue to skip our part of the nation and help it earn its unwanted reputation as Flyover Country.
Food for thought when I get my next e-mail for subscription renewal.
I can help with the Detroit event. Please reach out to me. Thanks!
omgosh omgosh omgosh I GET TO GO TO A BULWARK EVENT.
My poor husband lol!
Josh Marshall of TalkingPointsMemo.com mentioned "DataTrust" as the GOP source and custodian of voter data.
From there: look at https://thedatatrust.com/state-brief-pennsylvania/
I can't post a chart DataTrust displays there, but follow along anyway. The chart displays for each election cycle the percentage of Democrats, Other and Republicans that turned out to vote in Pennsylvania.
First look at the 2020 figures. Per DataTrust, the Dems turned out their voters at 73.4% and the GOP turned out theirs at 80.8%. The GOP had a 7.4% advantage.
Yet Biden won PA by 1.17% of the vote.
Next, take a look at the 2022 figures. The GOP had a 6.9% advantage turning out their voters over the Democrats (69.0% to 62.1%).
Yet the Democrats won the governorship and the Senate seat.
It really boils down to Get Out The Vote. This is assuming that the "Other" category split their vote in 2024 similarly to 2020 and 2022, and there is not a lot of reason to suppose that they won't. If the Dems can get as a percentage as many of their voters to the polls as the GOP, then IMO the Dems' victory is assured per GOP's own data (of course, what reliance you can put on GOP data?)
Close some of the 6-7% lead the GOP has over the Democrats in turning out their voters, and win!
Another way of looking it is that the Dems have more headroom to grow than the GOP. Exploit that! Can the GOP can possible muster the 80.8% enthusiasm of 2020 in 2024?
So, Sarah, JVL and Time, all the best in your efforts to inch the Democratic vote up and the Other and Republican columns to vote Democratic!
How about Arizona?
Check out this Phoenix event.
https://www.principlesfirst.us/event/principles-first-dinner-phoenix-arizona/
Yah, Michigan! Sometimes it pays to be in a swing state. 😅
Georgia is also a swing state. Just sayin.
See my Wisconsin comment elsewhere here. I realize that they cannot go everywhere, and choices need to be made. Nevertheless it is interesting how they so regularly skip our area when making travel plans, as if we are a hotbed for plague. It is getting tired.
I guess I shouldn't complain. I saw this in my local paper: Former President Donald Trump's campaign bus is making a stop in Gainesville. ....
A previous version of this article incorrectly reported that former President Donald Trump would appear at the rally.
Hahaha, his bus is coming here? Woo hoo, let's all go out and see that.
Can't wait to see you in Detroit!
You finally come to Pittsburgh and I’m out of town!
Another plea for NC. I promise, we are fun here!
Going to Detroit - it seems that is as close as it will get to Chicago. So excited!
Chicag...no?
I'm heading to Detroit - Chicago seems to be the impossible dream unfortunately :(
Come to Cleveland! Yeah. Yeah. Not a swing state anymore... But pretty please?