if they attain enough power they're going to do whatever it takes to get their way. there's no indication they have the capability to step back from anything. nothing is off limits for them or will be in order for them to attain their vision...
Max, saying over & over that Joe Biden has been a good President, & it's all the "Bulwark Republicans' fault" helps no one. I bow to no one in my admiration of Joe Biden's accomplishments in his presidency. I've copied Simon Rosenberg's list of bills Biden has gotten passed into a Word document, which I've used on many a comment board to refute nay sayers. But that was a different Joe Biden. We cannot unsee what we saw last Thurs. night, nor can we unread what world leaders who admire Biden & have noticed & are now reporting.
I'm not mad at the Bulwark staff. I'm furious at the Democratic Party hierarchy who kept Biden's decline hidden. Democrats have a very deep bench. There are excellent Governors, some in must-win states, like Josh Shapiro (PA), Gretchen Whitmer (Mich), & Tony Evers (Wisc). And others like Andy Beshear (KY), Gavin Newsom (CA), Phil Murphy (NJ) & Jared Polis (CO). There are also many excellent Senators as well. Sheldon Whitehouse (RI), Bob Casey (PA), Cory Booker ( NJ), Chris Murphy ( Conn), Tim Kaine & Mark Warner ( both VA) & Sherrod Brown (OH) come to mind. These people may not be " household names", but they could have been, if the party had begun promoting them several years ago.
I don't think it's too late now to do this. Kamala Harris could still remain as the VP candidate. But time is short. If Biden remains on the top of the ticket, of course I will vote for him. And I will write as many Postcards to Voters as Tony the Democrat asks me to. But I remain pessimistic that Biden has the strength, vigor & mental agility to win this race for us. And the most important truth is that a Democratic candidate must beat Trump.
Nobody kept anything hidden. We have always known the elderly Biden has (mostly) good days and (a few) bad days. Tim counts twenty bad days over Biden's term. Only twenty! Biden on his worst day is still light years better than Trump on his best day.
Keeping Biden offers less risk but also less drama, energy and excitement than replacing him, with no assurance that it would make any difference. The great operational question before us is not “Is Joe Biden too old?” The question is “Do you trust the delegates to the Democratic convention in Chicago to replace the present ticket with a supposedly more winning ticket without ripping their party apart in catastrophic ways?” The Democrats are a coalition party, not a base party, and they need coalition leadership.
The only guarantee is no matter what happens, if Trump slithers through the Electoral College (with a fraction of one percent of the vote), the Dems will viciously scapegoat someone.
The knives are out, mostly the news media and a few democratic legislators who are depressed and have lost their logical mind set. We wait, time will put events into perspective. The president if he decides that he is damaged goods should step down and turn over the Presidency to the Vice President Kamala Harris. She is in the White House and knows what's going on and will carry on President Biden's agenda. The other option would be to do want LBJ did and say I will not seek reelection. That will open the door to pure chaos. Think of multiple candidates at the convention fighting over who's the best candidate to run the Country. Think 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago. There needs to be ORDER in the chain of command. Rather it's Biden or Harris, democrats, sane independents and Republicans will vote to defeat Trump. A lot of people I talk to don't like Biden but there in total fear of Trump as our President.
This is insulting, unnecessary, and completely unproductive towards the greater goal at hand. You assume dissent only emanates from Republicans, though these "Bulwark Republicans", as you so fondly refer to them as, aren't Republicans anymore; haven't you been paying attention? Democrats, including some right here in this thread, feel the same way; haven't you been paying attention? You think so little of The Bulwark that you think they're slaves to their innermost "Republican" desires. Your ignorance and narrow-mindedness is showing.
No one is telling you you didn't see what you saw. But we are telling you to put it into the complete context. For example, why is no one paying attention to his appearance at Waffle House later the same night where Biden was fine, almost as if the cold medicine had worn off? Meanwhile, Trump every single day shows he cannot speak coherently even with a teleprompter.
Keeping Biden offers less risk but also less drama, energy and excitement than replacing him, with no assurance that it would make any difference. The great operational question before us is not “Is Joe Biden too old?” Your hyperbole is unhelpful. Biden is far, far from "comatose." Way to spread right-wing propaganda.. The question is “Do you trust the delegates to the Democratic convention in Chicago to replace the present ticket with a supposedly more winning ticket without ripping their party apart in catastrophic ways?” The Democrats are a coalition party, not a base party, and they need coalition leadership.
The only guarantee is no matter what happens, if Trump slithers through the Electoral College (with a fraction of one percent of the vote), the Dems will viciously scapegoat someone.
It’s a holy war to them. And as Stephen Spender put it a century ago observing the Spanish civil war (paraphrasing), “the opposing side weren’t people; they were objectionable theses, with a lead bullet as the white out.”
I read Shirer (Berlin Diary, Rise and Fall of the Third Reich) and you Evans (The Coming of the Third Reich, The Third Reich in Power and The Third Reich at War) - highly recommend, especially Evans because it’s highly readable and with more recent scholarship. Or just watch the Netflix series “Hitler and the Nazis - Evil on Trial.” I have a special interest as my Mother is German and suffered during Nazi era (my grandfather was drafted (conscripted) to fight on the Eastern Front (he died) and my great-grandfather was put in a Concentration Camp for being a political enemy (Communist).
Yeah, I've read Shirer, and I'm currently watching the documentary.
Lots of parallels to current conditions in America. I don't think we'll end up with millions murdered, but we'll end up with wrongful imprisonments at a minimum.
I haven't given up completely, but I think there is a better than 50% chance we will effectively be a dictatorship a year from now. People will still be pretending like we aren't (Putin wins 97% of the vote in Russian "elections") but we very well may be there.
He can try civil-warring us if he wants. He'll bleed as red as his stupid cap.
I am so sick and tired of the gasbags. They harp and yarp about how tough they are, how revolutionary, but if they found themselves in the civil war they claim they want, they'd hide in a bunker like their Dear Leader did on J6.
God spare us from the "tough guys" of the Culture Wars. They're not dangerous, they'll only bore us to death.
Note how these evil people refer to anyone not in their cult as "the left." Apparently that now incudes staunch conservatives like Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger.
Back in 2015/16 it was commonplace for someone who preferred another GOP candidate over Trump to be called a "leftist." Trump exploits that mentality by pinning the label "radical left" on practically anyone who crosses him.
I would vote for a comatose Biden if it's against Trump. It doesn't matter whom I personally vote for... what matters in the election is whom several tens of thousands of swing voters in key states vote for. And this is why how Biden presents himself to the people at large matters greatly for this, the highest-stakes election of our lives. The folks against Trump will not waver. It's the swing voters we badly need to keep our democracy alive.
What matters is not what Kristol and Eggers write for their audience (I doubt that any Bulwark subscriber is an undecided swing voter) but how Biden is seen by those swing voters I mentioned whose votes will decide the election and the fate of democracy in our country. All sufficiently educated or knowledgeable people know there is a considerable apparatus surrounding the President that takes care of the details, but big decisions ultimately end up with the big guy. This is why it matters how the President comes across to the people at large.
All of us here want the same end-result - defeat of a would-be autocrat. The question is about the best set of tactics to get us from here to that end-result, which will be decided in just over 4 months.
Jennifer, have you been on the Bulwark site? Since the ruling, there have been a bevy of articles in regard to the outcome. Perhaps not written by Bill, Andrew, Tim, etc.... but folks who actually have expertise in the area. I am pretty sure at this point; we all know how awful the threat is. It will be even worse if the Dems lose the presidency and Trump gets to name some more to the court. This ruling makes the Biden crisis an even bigger deal.
It's stuff like this that I remind myself why the universe didn't allow me to be a billionaire - if I had the $$ to arrange certain "events" I fear my worst primal instincts would take over.
Revolutions have a purpose, a cause. What’s their cause? We are not oppressing them! It’s a paranoid delusion. If anything, they are oppressing us, imposing their values on us. (10 Commandment in every classroom, eg)
Enough on Biden dropping out. He is an excellent President and should have all our support. Responding to a lying bully was always going to be difficult.
Obviously president is a big job. But I think it's nonsensical to act like it's some sort of athletic gig. There's a staff, advisers and experts to confer with on any issue that comes up during a presidency. There's a constitutionally created succession plan in a vice-president should anything happen to a president. Biden's got 2 jobs right now - to be the president AND to win an election in November. I don't know if he can convince enough of our superficial and impressionable citizenry to bother voting for him again, and the discussion of a practical alternative exists, but the only realistic, real world alternative to run in Nov. is Harris. That's just the reality when considering name recognition and pledged delegates and even a bit of racial identity (and gender) in the mix.Stop, just stop, with the argument of "how will he be in 4 years". If he gets re-elected, a VP with exactly the same administrative staff will step in.
That's a might big "if." I am not troubled by his serving four more years as President for the reasons you cite. The problem is he's not going to get that chance because nearly 75% of the public doesn't think he's fit for another term. That's just reality. Biden is likely going to lose if the Ds don't change their nominee.
I do not have your crystal ball. As a European I assure you Trump scares all of us. He will pull out of NATO and stop support for Ukraine. Not to mention all the new power he was given by the Supreme Court. We all need to recognize the job Biden has done and will do. Not to mention the superior people he has elevated to important roles.
Biden will have the Admin. needed to continue. Replacing him now (rather than in '23 or early '24) is foolish. The mass population should all support Biden as Trump has already told the elites what he'll do to help them. Trump has the wealthy/big business, the Republican pols, right-wing SCOTUS, and the magas. The remainder of Republicans, hopefully, will finally understand his indecency, ineptness, greed/narcissism, disinterest in laws binding him from what he feels he needs to do to increase/keep power.
Sure the people should all support Biden, but the reality is they won't, and there is nothing we can do about that, and neither can Biden. Concerns about his age will not go away. It's too late for Republicans, they are lost in a cult. No one on their side is going to save us.
You're right on his chances seeming pretty slim. But if they end up keeping Biden as the candidate anyway, I would hope the 'next 4 years' point doesn't get beaten to death and become another 'brainworm' in the average low-info voter's mind.
Yes, we have a VP "if" he gets elected who can step in, but you have to agree that this is not an ideal situation that will convince undecided voters to vote D. "Don't worry, the VP can step in if the President is mentally incapable" does not make a compelling campaign message!
Every single pundit, newspaper editorial board, columnist, and Democratic congressperson (fuck off, Lloyd Doggett, I’d voted for you in Texas every two years since the ‘70s) should make it super-clear — all day, every day and in a voice that can be heard — that nothing less than American democracy is at stake this November. That conversation should start happening right now.
V
The chaos Biden's alleged unfitness has unleashed doesn’t come close to what’s actually at stake this November: Americans voting either to recommit themselves to Democracy or to surrender to fascism. That’s it. Treason is legal now.
You vote for Biden or for Harris or for whoever is the head of the Democratic ticket; or you prepare for a life run by fascists. Should you not vote at all or choose to vote for a third party candidate, expect an autocracy.
No. Only if the VP dies before a successor VP is chosen by them. That choice has to be approved by both chambers of congress, but it won't be the House leader.
I'm always confused by this. People (generally on the Left and Democratic voters) insist that America will never elect a woman to the presidency because of sexism/misogyny, or a black person because of racism (Obama was the exception that proves the rule I guess?). Then why do these same people insist that the party diversify and nominate more women/people of color and stop having old white guys at the top of the ticket? Don't the Dems want to win?
It's not easy, but not impossible. All of Trump's weaknesses you mentioned in another previous post still apply vs Harris (and his age being a big weakness). Counterintuitively it would probably be easier for the GOP to get a woman or non-white candidate elected president, except they don't have enough of either to be taken seriously. Tribalism is a much bigger factor than ethnicity and sex when it comes to politics in America. Anyone who wouldn't vote for Harris because she's a black woman probably wouldn't vote for Biden either, because that voter is already firmly in the GOP camp.
Because of a 90-minute awful performance that has nothing whatever to do with the actual duties of the President? He's the nominee. We all need to get behind him or pay the very dire consequences. Enough already.
This isn’t loyalty to Biden. Do you really think that anyone is saying “it’s Biden or the highway?” It’s a political calculation that NOT replacing Biden is less risky and has more upside than replacing him. No one knows what will happen, everyone is making calculated guesses.
So you're voting for "our democracy"? Biden is the nominee. He has never presented as a narcissist or an autocrat. He has always presented as loyal to our democracy. What exactly are you talking about?
The concerns of the young? Are those concerns different from the concerns of everyone else wanting justice, equality, clean air and water, quality public education, quality/affordable healthcare, an end to homelessness . . . ?
Biden will get us closer to the things we want. At this moment, he is the only viable choice. Ideology is nice and all, but pragmatism is crucial.
When does the public or at least the Bulwark demand the same full work up for trump? Why isn’t that an issue. Why are so many people here and in the pundit class not insisting on that? You all have one standard for authoritarians and another very much more demanding for Biden.
There is a difference to me. The voters who have nominated Trump had his craziness in their face for the 4 years of his presidency, and the last 3 years with his crazy bleats. Even though it is apparent that he's nuts, the Republican voters have nonetheless chosen him - they have chosen crazy. With Biden, the voters who nominated him have been told that he's fine and able to do the job, and voted for him presumably on that basis. But on Thursday night that suddenly didn't seem to be the case.
Well the president is elected to support the country. The country has a right to know what his health report really says/is. If people kept insisting on it he the magats would avoid it but it could be an issue if the pundit class pursued it as doggedly as they are Biden’s health. Pin the beginning of trump’s term, dozens of psychiatric professionals wrote a letter saying he was unfit. Others have done the same. The media continues to hold trump to a lesser standard as seemingly do many here in these posts.
Exactly. Most of us agree that Biden has been a good or even great president. What we are concerned about is that he is not electable. That he will not beat the felon no matter how much we scream he’s been a great president and can do the job until he’s 86! He needs independents and based on polling they do not believe that he is fit to president. Yes, Trump is 1000000000000000x more unfit than Biden but that is not the calculation. It is simply does Joe Biden or Kamala Harris provide the best chance to beat the felon?
This is an issue that the "ride or die" crowd ignore. Biden himself needs to persuade voters that he is up to the job -- and the indicators say he is not doing so.
The people who are worried about the electability factor are not closet Trump supporters or mere "fair-weather friends," as some are alleging. They want to stop Trump -- and they have reason to fear that Biden is not the one who can do it this time around.
Well, that’s why we elect a President and VP to provide certainty that the platform you voted for will have continuity in the event anything should happen.
(And yes, you got me, I've always made it clear in years of substack writing and blogging that I'm absolutely totally going to vote for Trump, yessir.)
Do you want to win, or do you want to go down in flames. Biden was a good president, but now he’s experiencing a cognitive decline. We have no idea whether he can perform his duties effectively for another four years. And we don’t elect his advisors, who have not been vetted.
Ironically, the same people who tell us that this election is critical; Too Much is at stake,” are gaslighting themselves, and the rest of us by living in denial.
Too much is at stake when Biden is losing in every swing state (seven). This isn’t a one off! Concerns have been circulating for over a year, and we have been lied to by Biden, his family, and his advisors.
It’s time to have a contingency plan of Biden can’t alleviate the naysayers effectively. Otherwise, all is lost!
So continue to support Biden, but you do so at your own peril. And sadly, that “peril” will be the death of all of us.
Biden's skack-jawed, lost & bewildered facial expression in the debate performance, and the loss of his train of thought and wandering off the topic of his talking point wasn't a "one-off" or a "first time".
Prior to this were many similar moments published in the press and broadcast media that were already souring the opinions of undecided voters.
.
Personally I'm encouraging the defeat of every MAGA candidate from Trump down to local dog-catchers, but pretending the public isn't seeing the age releated decline right in front of their eyes is self-defeating.
When Democrats say: "don't believe the evidence of your eyes.." to the undecideds we put every cause and position in doubt with them.
The debate performance added a big pile of credibility to the prior reporting and rumors about declining acuity. The people dismissing it as "one bad night" are not being realistic about the whole picture.
I will once again state my position (not necessarily everyone's) is that Joe's run the country well for the past several years, we saw the debate and it was ugly, but finding a better candidate at this point is more risky than staying with Joe and understanding that's the better of the 2 evils.
I totally get that many people think this is no longer a choice and you have to pick someone else.
I just disagree with that but see your point. God's speed in finding the replacement. Kamala would seem to me to be the ONLY viable choice but many disagree with me on that as well.
I'm fine with disagreeing but please don't act like we are ignoring what was on full display on Thursday night although I think to think he wanders around the WH with his mouth agape is hyperbolic. Like Joe, I did my share of that watching/listening to Trump's firehose of lies that night...
I respectfully disagree. This is not “one bad night.” The concern had been floated for over a year, and the administration continually hid this fact from the American people, and denied it as propaganda and fake news. That’s election malpractice; especially in an election where “too much is at stake!”
As for Biden running the country well? I’d say he did a great job, but now is the time to retire with dignity. Churchill was a war PM. He was a terrible PM during peace times and voted out. Sometimes we rise to “an” occasion, not “every” occasion…:)
That said, Biden has cognitive disabilities which comes with aging. Unless you can tell me that he will be fine for the next four years, then he should not be running. We not electing his advisors who haven’t fully been vetted.
And as for changing horses midstream. In an ordinary election year, I’d agree; this is far from an ordinary election campaign. The good news is that most Americans would prefer a younger choice whether it’s Biden or Trump, so there is an upside to switching horses, not to mention, the billions in free advertising Harris would get.
Biden does not inspire anyone. Perhaps a new candidate will galvanize all the democrats who would rather stay home, independents, and never Trumper’s, who are just as flabbergasted by Thursday’s debate performance, as we were.
He looked great at the State of the Union so it's not been as obvious as you all seem to make it...especially given that he's simply old. Not to mention that if you read a transcript of the debate...95% of what he said was truthful and appropriate...just poorly delivered.
Again...my BIGGEST point here is that you are introducing MORE risk items by changing horses. The Kamala option presents the least amount of those.
I get it...you think the risk of staying with Biden is more than the risk of switching. We may get to see how it goes...and if so...I hope you're right.
I wouldn’t be so down on Biden if it weren’t for the fact that his team had not made him accessible for over a year. Thursday night was his time to shine and prove the naysayers wrong. And if you look at the polling, any progress in the polls that Biden made, is gone. Now he’s losing by wider margins.
In 2020, Biden was in the lead the entire time. In 2024, he’s been losing the entire time. We aren’t MAGA. We’re fighting for democracy, not for Biden’s place in history.
And if Biden has another “senior” moment ( being very generous) like Thursday, we won’t recover. The election would be over, and the only possible good news would be if he doesn’t take the entire “down-ballot” ticket with him….:)
What is your evidence for the statement "he is experiencing a cognitive decline?" If you read the transcript of the debate--without the hoarse, weak voice--you will see that he makes complete sense. Seth Abramson wrote an outstanding piece about this, which also explains the Gish Gallop; Heather Cox Richardson also explained the Gish Gallop. Biden was clearly ill. He also has a stutter, which was pronounced under the stress of the Gish Gallop. Again, his actual words made perfect sense. If you are interested in autocracy, carry on. Otherwise, get behind the Biden team.
Pamela, I’m not interested in autocracy, which is why Incant support Biden anymore. Don’t get me wrong; he has my vote, but I’m not the issue.
Biden won the last election by 7 million votes nationally, but only won the electoral college by 40-50 thousand votes in three key swing states. Yet now, he’s behind in all seven swing states, including three “must win”’swing states: MI, WI, and PA. Not exactly a winning formula.
And this was not just one bad night as you would have us believe. This issue has been circulating and denied by Biden for over a year. Thursday was his chance to convince his voter he was fine: all evidence points to the contrary.
We can’t elect a man for six months or a year. He’s president for four years. Do you honestly believe he will be able to do this job for four years, when his own advisers have refused to allow him to participate in news conferences and MSM interviews?
Right now we need to be focused on all of Trump’s lies and the Heritage Foundations’s Project 2025. Instead, the media will continue to make Biden the issue until he either shows he’s up for the job, or proves he’s not. Either way, Trump’s lies go unanswered, and his lies will eventually become alternative facts believed by enough voters to win the election.
How can we support a man who can’t even articulate his own accomplishments? Today, 35% of Americans believe that Biden is responsible the end of Roe v Wade. 60% of Americans believe that Trump is better for the economy and as a defender of democracy. These are actual facts.
So it doesn’t matter what Biden has accomplished because most people have no idea. And as the adage goes: if a tree falls in the forest, does anyone hear it? Or better yet, does it matter?
Bottom line: Biden has been ineffective at communicating his wins, or convincing Americans to give him a second term. And now we’re playing defense at a time when our democracy is on the menu. And sadly, the man more Americans believe is ready to lead this country into the future, isn’t Biden, it’s Trump.
I refuse to commit Seppuku without a fight. Backing Biden is suicide! IMHO…:)
The only viable next choice is Kamala...otherwise the Biden replacement is found running on their own record (which is what?) or....awkwardly...the Biden record... the guy we just kicked out.
The thing to understand about my position is that I'm not "Biden or nothing"...I just believe that switching horses at this stage of the game brings in more risks than with Biden running.
Everyone says Biden's going to lose, but I'm not so sure of that come November.
But it wasn't complete sense. In talking about abortion rights, he flips to talking about a woman being killed by an immigrant and Trump going to her funeral. When talking about the economy, he ends his remark with an emphatic "and we beat Medicare!" which had nothing to do with the discussion. His brain seemed to switch topics mid-stream.
Then instead of confusing the issue and bashing the president, why not say that you don’t support him because you think he won’t win. That appears to be your main issue.
I’m sorry, what exactly in my comments would suggest otherwise? Of course I don’t think he can win. All evidence and polling for the last year shows Biden behind, which supports the fact that Biden can’t win.
I wish Biden could win. He has my vote, but I’m not the issue. The issue is whether Biden can win; he can’t, and hopefully, he will do the right thing and drop out of the race.
Biden has been and is now losing by a wider margin in every battleground state. This is a fact. I like Biden, but Inlove our democracy and our freedoms more.
It’s a risk, but less than the risk of sticking with Biden.
I will vote for Biden ahead of Trump because Trump is a menace.
The issue is that the swing voters who decide elections are breaking the other way, and mostly, it appears, because they think Biden is too mentally impaired. How would you persuade them that they are wrong?
Some of us think he can't win because he doesn't have the strength, stamina, vigor or mental agility it takes to RUN for President. And that's pretty important.
It takes nothing away from my admiration of everything he's done as President. Of course, if he's the nominee, I will vote for him. But the most important thing is stopping Trump from winning. Can Biden do that?
None of us has a crystal ball. I’m uncomfortable with all the Biden can do this, or can’t do that. Biden is demented, Biden can’t keep up. Biden does more stuff in a day than I do in a week and I take care of my home, work two part time jobs and volunteer for animal welfare orgs.
And really some of the pundits are closer to Biden’s age- Bill Kristol is 71. Charlie Sykes is 69. What is the universal cut off age for old? If republicans win they’ll have old people all working bc they want to end social security. How did it happen that Biden was doing the job - flying all over the world, attending the G-7 and now he’s toast. Mel Brooks is 98 and still working as are many other people. I realize that Biden’s job is unique but CTFO.
We are all getting older every damn day and the media, including the Bulwark is addicted to writing the best and nastiest headlines to work the public up and make everyone more angry. FFS! Enough.
And it escapes me as to why an old republican like KRISTOL, who hasn’t really changed is getting so much trust from people here.
My problem with the nature of this entire argument is exactly what you said "Do you want to win or go down in flames?". Hitching our wagon to VP Harris would certainly lead to us going down in flames. There is a reason why it was very well known that she was not a particularly well-liked or charismatic politician, that hasn't changed. We need to stop convincing ourselves that the alternative is better just because it is an alternative.
She’s a different person than before. And she was a prosecutor who was great on the Judicial Committee in the Senate. She can definitely counteract all of Trump’s lies and since she’s a woman, would be better at communicating the abortion issue.
Right now Harris is polling better than Trump in a one on one contest. And whether you like it or not, Biden is losing in every swing state needed to win this election: all seven!
Biden won by 7 million votes in 2020, yet only won the electoral college by 40-50 thousand votes in three swing states, that tipped the election in his favor. So please elaborate as to how Biden can win this election?
An alternative isn’t necessarily better, but we need a Hail Mary, because right now, Trump wins handedly. And one aspect is in our favor. Most voters, and especially much needed independents, would prefer a younger, generic candidate to either Trump or Biden.
Yes. Let's be honest, Biden has objectively aged greatly since 2020. Trump, on the other hand, has barely changed, he was crazy af back then and he's a slightly crazier sob now, but it's hard to tell because he was so crazy already in 2016! So Biden going downhill fast only hurts him and the Dems, while nothing Trump does is going to hurt him much, because the craziness is already baked in and his supporters actually like the crazy!
Everybody knows Trump is lying in the first place. Her calling him out would not enlighten anyone about who Donald Trump actually is. The recently released polls showing a Kamala lead over Biden in a head to head against Trump is appealing on it’s surface, but there are too many people trying to grasp at a fleeting moment in time in order to justify upending a Presidential campaign with 5 months to go. Again, lets take a step back and look at this poll. It would go against everything we know about politics to believe that there is a block of voters significant enough to swing an election that would vote for Harris over Trump but not Biden over Trump. This is evidence that shows Biden should stay in this race. This shows that there are people who are clearly dissatisfied with both the options, and they finally have the ability to voice that dissatisfaction in a poll. These same people, almost certainly, would be checking Joe Bidens name in November. Taking that gamble is far less risky than the gamble of nominating someone new at this point. Doing so would create an environment in which there would be so much focus on the chaos in the Democratic party, there would be no time, and no attention given towards working to defeat Donald Trump.
My point exactly, this isn’t a new story and if there wasn’t a push to replace him 4,5,6 months ago, then the time has passed and our bed has been made. It’s not my fault you all regret your decision of staying silent, but don’t change up now. You’ll be jumping from a sinking ship with a chance of staying afloat to another sinking ship (but it might also stay afloat) that’s your logic after all, isn’t it?
No her candidacy would not take us down in flames. It's just as likely Trump would be so triggered by running against a much younger black woman, he would take his own candidacy down in flames.
If Trump being a convicted felon, being found liable for rape, causing January 6th hasn't brought down his candidacy then why should I believe that Kamala Harris would be his kryptonite. There is no reason why we should believe that to be true.
Because his cognitive decline is coupled with a severe personality disorder. What Litt impulse control he had over his outbursts is slipping. He was saved in the debate by the two minute mic mute. If that wasn't there we would have had a totally different debate. One worse than the first debate in 2020. A format that was supposed to favor Biden only served to protect Trump.
It's not outside the realm of possibility, sure, yet you say this as if it would be a certain fact as where I read it and find it to be a very unlikely outcome.
“Everybody knows Trump is lying in the first place.”
No, they don’t! That’s the problem. Trump has an entire media ecosystem dedicated to defending his lies, and making them alternative facts. And his ecosystem has grown even larger since Biden was inaugurated. Univision was bought by a friend of Kushner’s and has reprogrammed its content to be pro-Trump. Trump has gained double digits in the Hispanic community as a result.
The Baltimore Sun was bought by Sinclair and is reprogramming their content to make Trump out to be a big supporter of the African American community and then broadcasting articles on every Sinclair local media channel available. Trump has gained African American support as a result.
And don’t expect the MSM to save the day. Did you notice the lack of fact checking during the debate? And since Biden’s debacle, the only thing anyone is talking about in the media and on websites like this is whether Biden can recover, or should resign from this campaign.
That said, 54% of American adults read at a six grade level or lower. American is ranked 125 out of 195 in literacy around the world. So no, “EVERYONE doesn’t know Trump is a liar; if they did, more than 55% of Americans wouldn’t believe that Trump is better for the economy or democracy, yet, they do!
Robert, is people consume media within the Trump ecosystem, Kamala Harris, no matter what she says or how she says it, is not going to be able to convince them about much of anything. You don't need to be engrossed within politics to know that Trump says outlandish things or to know that he is a liar. The simple fact is that most people just do not care at this point. For the swing voters in swing states who are often older and educated, they certainly know he is a liar. How can you convince yourself that after 8 years, Kamala Harris is the answer all along to making people see the light about Trump?
Well then, please tell me why Biden has been losing in every swing state since the campaign started,and has never taken the lead? He was even up in NH by 12, and now is down by 3; a nine point swing as of yesterday.
But let’s stick with Biden as the walls slowly collapse all around us: Great strategy Matt!
Feel free to go down with the ship. I’m calling for a new captain: End of story!
The simple logic test for this situation is: Do you truly believe that there are is substantial block of voters (large enough to swing an election) that would vote for Harris over Trump but NOT Biden over Trump? That feels as though it is based purely in fantasy, not reality.
Maybe. Harris is 59 yo and a younger generation that Biden and Trump.. She can land blows about Trump’s age and unfitness that Joe Biden could never do. She may not be the first choice for many Dems and Independents. However, Biden is polling behind Harris. Harris and a good solid VP choice running with her may be our best shot. No, I don't know for certain. Nobody does. It is clear that there are serious questions about Biden's health that may have been managed behind the scenes. No one wants to see Biden disrespected or humiliated.
Nobody knows for certain, exactly. Yet my assesment of this situation is that it would be far riskier to nominate someone new at this point as opposed to staying with Joe Biden, who lets not forget, has still managed to run this country very well. I don't know for certain Biden would win, I don't know for certain if Kamala would win, but I would rather not take a massive gamble for something that I am equally not certain about.
Sure, then we should have had this discussion a year ago. Creating a firestorm 5 months out about replacing Biden with an (unpopular) younger person is doing more harm then sucking it up and sticking behind our guy. If republicans can get behind Trump and his baggage, then why should we self-destruct.
Actually, Trump is a lying (clocking in at more than 45K lies during his term alone and tens of thousands more before and after that abysmal time); sleazy (from "grab 'em by the pu...." to his gropes/assaults on one or more females/possible r@pes, and walking into a dressing room full of half-naked females during his tenure with The Miss Universe Org); cheating (from his trysts with other females while married - every time to his money laundering hush money pays to keep it quiet to his enablers helping to 'catch & kill" damaging info confirming his lack of decency that would take away votes from his pursuit of power and election win); to his thefts (from funneling money from The Trump Found., which was shuttered in response to the confirmation of his crime in 2017 after he swiped $2 million from a military charity fundraiser, funneled it to his campaign where Time Magazine informed the nation of what he had done to the government's help in obtaining a court order for him to repay it - not a felony charge which any private citizen who committed a crime should have received...no, this con man/thief/indecent being with no morals to speak of, received a court order - even though he was a private citizen when he committed the crime. Reason? The powers that were did not want to embarass themselves in having a sitting president indicting fro a crime (he committed). Trump did not deny the theft. He did not appeal the court order. He complied and paid it. We now have an unfit, unbalanced, unscrupulous, amoral, wack job who craves power/wealth/adulation & will stop at nothing to obtain it. And the entire slate of corrupt Republican politicians and judges will be glad to assist.
Add to that rot, his crimes committed while in Office - that are being legally allowed by a questionably right-wing (and morally bankrupt) SCOTUS. From Trump's treason (inciting the insurrection/calling for an attack on the Capitol - the government - to many attempts (and failures) to rig the election/coerce non-existent votes so he'd win the state, carry on fraud for years with the claim of a stolen election when he was the thief, etc. Trump should've been charged for his godawful neglect of the mass population during COVID - every aspect of it (including the skyrocketing death toll, cratered economy, soaring unemployment/business closings/food & product shortages/price gougings, and horrific bungling of vaccine acquisition - including throwing $265 million at Fuji Film for a vaccine.
Other Trump neglect includes: removing consumer/environmental protections, bilking millions from taxpayers, shutting down the government to get more $ (effectively blocking all Fed. workers from getting paychecks and all needy from receiving services - while the shutdown was in effect. Trump embedded his shady business interests into the Presidency and amassed millions (violating Constitutional law/the Emoluments Clause). Trump did not find something better/cheaper to replace Obamacare, as promised - he tried to kill it altogether. Trump failed to lower drug prices - as promised. He failed to keep businesses in America - as promised, Trump's huge/long-term tax cuts for the wealthy massively increased the national debt.
Worst of all (besides his decades of disloyalty, predatory malevolence and indecency towards many was his support of tyranical maniacs who ordered the deaths of many of their own people - but stood by as two particular Americans were murdered/tortured. A member of the Saudi Regime ordered the murder/dismemberment of an American citizen/NY Times reporter. Trump supported the regime. Kim Jong-un, despotic leader of N. Korea stood by as an American student was tortured/put into a coma/and soon died. Trump did nothing but exchange love letters with Jong-un.
Trump's slurs against U.S. allies, females, military heroes, disabled individuals, ethnic groups, former friends/colleagues, Democrats, all those who attempted to prosecute him for his crimes, his own VP, Rep. & Dem. Pres., a former Rep. Sec. of State, all media (except the right-wing propaganda outlets that withhold damaging & truthful info re his lack of decency/humanity/loaylty/ethics/adherence to the law, etc.
And, this monsters - who vowed vengeance over many (for any reason at all), a dictatorship of horror, more of the same - and much worse.....wants another chance?
Other than promising more tax cuts for the elite, more money for the fossil fuel industry, more power for him & less for any other branch, hell for the masses, loss of freedom, attempts to quiet the media who is against him, more sociopathic/psychopathic behaviors & malevolence - what is he offering?
My poorly made point is that almost all true conservatives have left the Republican party and there is very little about the current Republican party that is conservative.
I don't believe Conservative is the correct term, anymore. It's right-wing as Trump has been extreme in his law-breaking (in spite of the aid SCOTUS judges & the slate of Republicans provide), hunger for power, and enrichment of the elite & harm to the masses.
No one is saying he hasn't been a good President. They're saying he can't win another term because he's clearly aged considerably since he ran 4 years ago.
I'd buy that if Biden responded to Trump's blizzard of lies, but he didn't effectively respond to any of it. Yes, Biden has been an excellent president. But he appears to be in the early stages of dementia and, if that's true, it's only going to get worse.
See a comment above. The firehouse of lies and nonsequitors Trump spewed is a deliberate tactic meant to keep your opponent from answering/challenging. Sure Biden could have gotten a few more punches in, but that was the point of Trump’s barrage.
First, you point out that is the technique being used and why Trump is using it.
Second, you don't refute all lies, but you thoroughly refute a couple of the big ones.
I was fairly horrified when Biden started talking about his own golf handicap. The obvious response is that it wasn't a president's job to golf. The biggest frustration of that night is that Trump was completely unhinged and easily refuted, but Biden just couldn't do it.
Right! Where was this line? “I’m running for President because I want to make life better for the American people, to support Democracy around the world and defend our allied against aggression from foreign actors. My opponent is running for President to stay out of jail.”
Try doing his travel/event schedule he did prior to the debates, add in debate prep, oh, and throw in a cold or the flu on top of that and see how well you would do.
Most presidents running for re-election handle that triple-play fine. If Biden had a cold or flu, he should have said so before the debate and had it rescheduled. Since he said nothing, the absence of medical information allowed the world to see him as senile rather than, perhaps, hit hard by a cold or flu.
Plus, if his cold was really that bad, why was he in NC the next day, mingling with supporters. Yes, his remarks were better, but he was reading from the teleprompter.
How is he doing with off the cuff remarks? Can he do interviews?
I haven't seen a single person on this Substack saying that Joe Biden hasn't been a good President. Even a great President. What some of us are saying is that, based on his debate performance & the reports of leaders who saw & heard Biden in Europe, we are not convinced that Joe Biden has the strength, vigor or mental agility to RUN for President.
Ezra Klein said something important in his New Yorker interview with Isaac Chotiner that is worth remembering: "There's not a vote Ruth Bader Ginsburg cast or a decision that she authored that was as consequential as her decision not to retire."
Pretty much everyone who was rooting for Biden expected him to do considerably better than he did. A good many other people would have done much better.
If Biden can't stand up to Trump in a debate, can he stand up to the world's bad actors? Some European diplomats have expressed concern that he would not do well in a room facing Putin. Some have reported that efforts were made to be protective of him at the G7 summit. If our close allies see the president to the United States as someone who has become feeble, that doesn't inspire confidence.
I'll take the 'Biden ride or die crowd' over the 'Biden fantasy football crowd' any day of the week, who have a new Biden doom story every day then act as though they aren't a part of perpetuating the cycle of Biden doom stories.
Yep. I wish there were an "unlike" icon, like a heart with an arrow through it, which is basically what the GOP is planning for America. In this wretched era it truly sounds like the Confederacy redux.
Not so interesting since Heritage ceased to be a conservative think tank with the appointment of Jim DeMint. It’s a paleo-conservative organization now lock, stock and barrel.
Fine, Bill, you want to kick Biden to the curb ( we know)...could you please manage not to sound so gleeful about it happening? Mainly so I can keep reading you guys without crying...thanks.
Well, thanks Andrew, I want to be clear I love all you guys, and I have defended Bill and Mona repeatedly in the comments...it is just that Bill has wanted this for a long time, and his tone just seemed to be different than everyone elses.
Great to see the Biden team sticking with the running insult to his own party that he's the only one for this job. If the guy we saw on the debate stage Thursday is the only one in the entire Democratic Party for this job, then they may as well scrap the entire party and start from scratch. The more they lie to me, the angrier it makes me. And this canard about jet lag when all he did a week before the debate was prep is total nonsense. When Republicans insult their voters' intelligence, their voters don't seem to care. It doesn't work that way with me.
I've long since come to the conclusion that the Democratic Party is headed up by a lot of smart people who 1) are too impressed with how smart they are and 2) aren't as smart as they think they are. The fact that I support them and their goals does not necessarily mean that I align with how they do business, which too often leaves a lot to be desired.
I think they're endeavoring to confirm your conclusions. One thing about this whole mess, it's being treated like the mess it is, but it's kind of a scandal, isn't it? Like, this hits me like one of the biggest scandals of our time, hiding the infirmity of a sitting president and lying to the American people about it and recklessly running him while he's the only person standing between democracy and autocracy. Gaslighting anyone who has concerns based on what they're seeing, telling Dean Phillips and his ilk to shut up and go away. Continuing to deny reality after the mask is off. It feels to me like a legit, major scandal.
My feeling is that if Biden and the Democrats win in the fall (President, Senate, and maybe even retake the House somehow) the issue will be seen as something of a speed bump along the way (pending future developments), albeit one from which many valuable lessons should be learned. On the other hand, if DJT wins, and especially if the Senate falls to the GOP too, plus the Republicans keep the House, I think the major scandal thing starts to kick in. Hard to say where accountability begins and ends on that, but I suspect the list of names would be long, including the name Biden.
I can only conclude that he's either incapacitated or incompetent at this point. The complete non-response to this crisis is totally damning either way.
This is what I'm starting to wonder about as this story just drags on: the longer it takes for Biden to leave, the higher the risk grows of him discrediting both the establishment and possible alternatives as he goes.
Harris is a great example of this: her job is, and has been, to be loyal to the president. And she's done that job well. So: if Biden turns out to be unfit, and she knew, then she was helping perpetuate a lie. If Biden turns out to be unfit, and she didn't know, it hits at the core of her credibility to "carry on his legacy." Or maybe it distances her from the fallout, that'd be nice....
If you are willing to torch the party over this, then you are being every bit as condescending as some of Biden's defenders.
If we are going to ignore 3 years of policy, the midterms, The State of the Union, and other much better recent speeches of his over this, it doesn't work that way with me.
The Heritage Foundation (and Federalist Society) already have blood on their hands from their claimed "bloodless coup"! People have already DIED at the hands of so-called Republicans, so-called conservatives, led by vicious thugs and a teflon don.
And they are NOT leading an AMERICAN Revolution. They are leading a second "Civil" War (nothing civil about either of them). AMERICA does not need nor want a "revolution" by lies and violence. But that is what The Heritage Foundation, "Republican" Party, SCOTUS and MAGA are giving us.
The fact that someone disagrees with you doesn't make them ignorant or [whatever other insults from recent threads I've forgotten to list here].
This is a genuinely difficult problem with no clear answers or safe solutions. Let's discuss it like civil adults. That's something the bad guys can only take away from us if we let them.
I think the disagreements in these daily threads are a reflection of the Bulwark community at-large. We are a loose coalition of former Republicans, current Republican Never Trumpers, and moderate Democrats plus some liberals who hang out here because they like seeing conservative hosts beat up on other conservatives. The one thing that unites the coalition is the single-minded mission of defeating Trump, but the debate performance has divided us into camps. My dilemma is I see compelling arguments from each camp, although I'm starting to see that the Joe Must Go camp has the more persuasive argument. I'm still withholding total commitment until I see how Joe performs over the next few weeks, if he stays in at all. And you're right, we should agree to disagree in a civil manner, and I'm disappointed in folks who don't. The Bulwark is not 4Chan.
To "make people un-see what they saw at Thursday night’s Waterloo" would take one thing: Biden appearing in public, mentally vigorous and in command, at multiple unscripted events. People would forget Thursday in a heartbeat.
If Biden hasn't done that by now, it's pretty clear that he can't.
Adding travel fatigue to the list of lame "it was two other guys and besides they hit me first" excuses was a breathtakingly dumb idea and just makes Biden's judgment, and character, seem more shaky.
This is how people behave who have fucked up and don't want to admit it.
I'm not advocating for Joe to stay or go. But consider the possibility that his condition is worse, maybe much worse, than we have been told. I feel more and more each day that there is a great deal that we are not aware of. The Democratic Party has a lot to answer for as this increasingly falls into a quagmire that didn't have to happen, had they handled things better from the beginning, at least two years ago. My anger with them is rising exponentially with each new sunrise and each fresh news cycle.
It’s one thing to consider it and it’s another to then proceed as if it’s fact. It leans too much into the conspiracy realm for me. Consider as well that Biden is absolutely neurologically normal for a healthy man his age - a little slower but in full possession of his cognitive ability with the added complexity of stuttering issue public speaking tools that have always been there (speaking to fast, etc.). I tend to lean that way since I’ve seen in it a lot of older people and it explains Biden’s ability to function at an extremely high level the majority of the time but have days where it’s just harder but not impossible. That is not dementia or being cognitively incapacitated, it’s normal aging.
I watched the debate because I wanted to see what BS Trump was gonna put out there but I was also not predisposed to the opinion that Biden is too old, even though he is old. It was bad but even in the beginning what some assume to be a blank look, I saw as him listening and being aghast at what he was hearing from Trump while thinking of how to respond — I don’t think he was aware of the always on split screen, which is highly unusual in a debate. He got better, and I’m one who is willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he wasn’t feeling well and hoped to make it through.
Everyone is so cynical that I have seen no one making the case for the simplest explanation being the true one. Biden was damned if he said he was ill before or during the debate and damned if he didn’t and he certainly could not call it off. To believe that he or anyone would have agreed to these debates if they thought for a moment it would happen the way it did is suspending reality itself.
As I’ve said before, considering one position in good faith requires considering the other position in good faith. I am not in a cult of Biden and whatever happens will happen, but I also am not convinced that the stand down crowd is wholly realistic. Not just strategically but practically. As in: if it’s not Kamala, how does the party get ballot access before deadlines — some of which are before the convention, and the majority of which are right after — when the candidate is not the one who won the primaries. Where does the funding come from since Biden/Harris funds are not transferable. Is there a certainty that all of the myriad election laws in 50 states can be met in such a short time frame? Especially when the GOP has a bevy of lawyers lined up to nullify a new candidate? It’s not as simple as it’s being presented. Any election law experts opining?
I will continue to make an appeal to calm and reflection and humility and grace now that the initial days have passed. People can change their mind about their initial stance but the circular firing squad with intransigence more interested in being right than considering the possibility of being wrong is getting old. We all want the same thing, so can we please stop declaring one side or the other as — fill in the derogatory term here — instead of as our allies in the fight against Trump? I will add, too, that some of the comments about Biden are downright derogatory and insulting from those wishing he would stand down and it’s really off-putting and unnecessary to make the stand down case. The Party and the nation find itself in historically unprecedented territory. There is no one right answer. We are all flying a bit blind and operating by intuition.
You make good points. My feeling is simply that the Democratic Party needs to be as transparent as possible about this, without weakening our influence abroad with rogue nations and even our allies. I realize that those two goals can be incompatible to an extent, but if the Dems are seen as being evasive or even untruthful, it will do their cause more harm than good in the end -- like the old saying goes, it's not the crime so much as the coverup.
I have a parent with severe dementia, and I don't see that in Joe. (But I do see signs of it in Donald.) So I'm not down on Joe so much as wary that the Dems have been trying too hard to massage the situation rather than address it appropriately over time, hoping that it would not explode in our faces. Yet here we are. A large part of why I don't advocate one way or the other what Joe should do is because I simply do not feel that I have enough reliable information to take a stand on it (and since my voice means nothing to the process). But you do ask good questions and pose ample food for thought. I hope those who in fact are in a position to make important decisions will take them into account. For my part I just keep coming back to the feeling that this is becoming the mother of all unforced errors by the Democrats in how they've handled it, and we all stand to pay the price for it in the end.
The Heritage Society has started so other American Revolution by taking over the Supreme Court!! Add more judge. Stop the Heritage Foundation and the Federalist Society NOW. Start talking about these traitors NOW!
Last Friday morning, I was inclined to give Biden the benefit of the doubt that it was "just a bad night" and he would spend the next few days in public showing us that he's up to the next four years. He needs to get out there and prove it. So far, not so much.
Biden was out campaigning the night of the debate and again the next day in Raleigh, NC. Where have you been? Clearly not paying attention to what Biden is doing....
He needs to face tough interview and press conference questions. Teleprompter speeches and cheers from his supporters isn’t sufficient. He needs to show the country that his debate performance was an episode, and not a condition to echo the question Pelosi asked. Blaming a cold or exhaustion from international travel weeks before the debate is weak.
People concerned about Biden's fitness have acknowledged these performances and pointed out that (1) they were scripted events, which are less challenging than having to think and talk on your feet, and (2) they were good but not great performances.
Show me a Trump event that isn't scripted and enhanced by teleprompters. And whenever the teleprompter goes down, we get some demented Gish gallop about electric boats and sharks. But for some reason, that's not of concern around these parts. Anyone who watched that rally in Raleigh and didn't see a great performance wasn't watching the same rally I was.
Of course Trump is far worse in every regard than Biden. That’s not the point. Republicans are fully on board with Trump - that’s not changing- unless Trump has a debilitating health issue. Trump is leading in most swing state polls and with the electoral college bias Biden needs to win the popular vote by 3-4%. Ask Hilary for confirmation of this fact. Biden had a horrible debate, and is now the underdog. The question is what is he going to do about it? Blaming others, or a cold, or exhaustion from travel weeks ago is not going to do the job.
I watched the rally in Raleigh. I was not impressed. I like Joe Biden, and will vote for him if he is the nominee. Constantly comparing Biden to Trump isn't solving Biden's problems. It is obvious that Trump behaves like a rabid animal. Yet, Trump’s horrific behavior does not change the appearance that Joe Biden has cognitive issues.
If Harris is Trump's opponent, Trump will be in the teleprompter spotlight. Harris as his opponent would be a total nightmare for Trump's campaign. No more hiding his own cognitive decline behind Sleepy Joe. Biden's debate performance played all too well into Trump's narrative. It's the biggest reason Biden is not recovering from Thursday night.
All right then. I wasn't watching the same rally you were.
And this isn't about fairness.
And saying "Trump is worse" is not enough. It is possible to be extremely concerned about Trump and extremely concerned about Biden's recent failures. One does not rule out the other.
The fact that there's a raging fire at one end of the house doesn't make it OK for someone to smoke in bed at the other end of the house.
Maybe stick to one train of thought at a time, and if you want to switch topics, acknowledge that the topic you are introducing is in fact a new and equally difficult one.
You're skipping over too many logical steps. Whether A is true or not has nothing to do with whether B is difficult/dangerous/etc. or not.
This is a complex issue. Difficult truths need to be acknowledged, and the +/- of risky options need to be weighed. Wishing something won't make it true.
I’m not in the “must drop out”camp. I doubt that he will. I want Biden to do everything that he can to increase his chances at re-election. Not his family, not his staff, but the person who is asking the country to be President for another 4.5 years. Opinions differ on what he should do.
Yep. Biden needs to campaign every day from now until the day after the election. If he can’t do that it’s a big problem which is a huge understatement.
Nothing makes me happy to say this. People can find statements I’ve made repeatedly defending Biden.
It's the horrific internal polling that changed my mind. A generic Dem did better against Trump than Biden. There are now 12 swing states in play with at least four now firmly in Trump's camp. The only way Biden beats Trump looks to be resigning and letting Kamala take on Trump. Kamala would have the big advantage of putting Trump as the sole demented old man in the race.
Biden will have a staff that will pick up the slack and do what's right. Trump has a mountain of help from a corrupt/unethical/power-hungry group of Republicans (judges, donors, elite, wealthy, big business...all who have interests that would lead to enrichment of some kind...illegal/amoral be dam*ed).
Regarding Cheap Shots, we are not in a second american revolution, this is the American Revolution in reverse, where we take away a government chosen by the people and install a monarchy/dictatorship.
As bad as the post-debate mishandling by his team has been, the rush by “concerned” politicians, left-leaning media, and other “know-it-alls” to call for his withdrawal is far more damaging.
There is a Substack you can subscribe to for free: What Did Joe Biden do Today” that is really informative. That’s where I got the info about the meetings.
Probably not because they were probably brought in as consultants and usually you have to keep those conversations private. I take it as a good sign that the administration is taking feedback from people that understand Haley voters and double haters and undecideds.
"As support for the president has begun to collapse in public, things also seem chaotic behind closed doors. Dispatch Politics reported Sunday that prominent Never-Trump Republicans—including former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele, lawyer George Conway, veteran Republican operative Mike Murphy, commentators Bill Kristol and Charlie Sykes, and strategist Sarah Longwell—met with top Biden campaign officials to urge the president to step aside."
Remember when some people tried to replace the guy that won an election with the guy that didn't and we got all mad about it?
Maybe let's not do our own version of that here. Biden won the nomination with about 87% of the vote. But I'm supposed to just rub my chin thoughtfully and be ok with a small group of pundits trying to overturn those elections in order to replace the winner with someone they're going to find other reasons to complain about?
How about we trust the Democratic voters this time?
I think the emotions you express are why we are not going to hear much about the way forward until a decision has been made. I think a lot of resources are going into how to have an open convention, what to do about Ohio, keep Biden for the rest of his term, what to communicate.
That Cheap Shot is absolutely chilling. So, the only way to avoid bloodshed is unconditional surrender to fascists? Great.
Did you feel threatened? I felt threatened.
How is this supposed to work? Are you going to beat me into submission?
What a swinging d!ck.
*forgive language
No apology needed. Sometimes the shoe fits and the circumstances warrant blunt speaking.
That would be quite a swing.
if they attain enough power they're going to do whatever it takes to get their way. there's no indication they have the capability to step back from anything. nothing is off limits for them or will be in order for them to attain their vision...
In my comment I'm not saying "whatta ya gonna do tough guy?"
We know these guys wouldn't lower themselves to soil or bloody their manicured hands.
Turning fellow Americans against each other, a civil war? The People will go to jail - not them.
When will the American people realize that they are being played?
Max, saying over & over that Joe Biden has been a good President, & it's all the "Bulwark Republicans' fault" helps no one. I bow to no one in my admiration of Joe Biden's accomplishments in his presidency. I've copied Simon Rosenberg's list of bills Biden has gotten passed into a Word document, which I've used on many a comment board to refute nay sayers. But that was a different Joe Biden. We cannot unsee what we saw last Thurs. night, nor can we unread what world leaders who admire Biden & have noticed & are now reporting.
I'm not mad at the Bulwark staff. I'm furious at the Democratic Party hierarchy who kept Biden's decline hidden. Democrats have a very deep bench. There are excellent Governors, some in must-win states, like Josh Shapiro (PA), Gretchen Whitmer (Mich), & Tony Evers (Wisc). And others like Andy Beshear (KY), Gavin Newsom (CA), Phil Murphy (NJ) & Jared Polis (CO). There are also many excellent Senators as well. Sheldon Whitehouse (RI), Bob Casey (PA), Cory Booker ( NJ), Chris Murphy ( Conn), Tim Kaine & Mark Warner ( both VA) & Sherrod Brown (OH) come to mind. These people may not be " household names", but they could have been, if the party had begun promoting them several years ago.
I don't think it's too late now to do this. Kamala Harris could still remain as the VP candidate. But time is short. If Biden remains on the top of the ticket, of course I will vote for him. And I will write as many Postcards to Voters as Tony the Democrat asks me to. But I remain pessimistic that Biden has the strength, vigor & mental agility to win this race for us. And the most important truth is that a Democratic candidate must beat Trump.
Nobody kept anything hidden. We have always known the elderly Biden has (mostly) good days and (a few) bad days. Tim counts twenty bad days over Biden's term. Only twenty! Biden on his worst day is still light years better than Trump on his best day.
Keeping Biden offers less risk but also less drama, energy and excitement than replacing him, with no assurance that it would make any difference. The great operational question before us is not “Is Joe Biden too old?” The question is “Do you trust the delegates to the Democratic convention in Chicago to replace the present ticket with a supposedly more winning ticket without ripping their party apart in catastrophic ways?” The Democrats are a coalition party, not a base party, and they need coalition leadership.
The only guarantee is no matter what happens, if Trump slithers through the Electoral College (with a fraction of one percent of the vote), the Dems will viciously scapegoat someone.
The knives are out, mostly the news media and a few democratic legislators who are depressed and have lost their logical mind set. We wait, time will put events into perspective. The president if he decides that he is damaged goods should step down and turn over the Presidency to the Vice President Kamala Harris. She is in the White House and knows what's going on and will carry on President Biden's agenda. The other option would be to do want LBJ did and say I will not seek reelection. That will open the door to pure chaos. Think of multiple candidates at the convention fighting over who's the best candidate to run the Country. Think 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago. There needs to be ORDER in the chain of command. Rather it's Biden or Harris, democrats, sane independents and Republicans will vote to defeat Trump. A lot of people I talk to don't like Biden but there in total fear of Trump as our President.
Is Biden running for the last four years or the next four years?
This is insulting, unnecessary, and completely unproductive towards the greater goal at hand. You assume dissent only emanates from Republicans, though these "Bulwark Republicans", as you so fondly refer to them as, aren't Republicans anymore; haven't you been paying attention? Democrats, including some right here in this thread, feel the same way; haven't you been paying attention? You think so little of The Bulwark that you think they're slaves to their innermost "Republican" desires. Your ignorance and narrow-mindedness is showing.
Sure, would you leave infant children in the care of uncle Joe after last Thursday?
No one is telling you you didn't see what you saw. But we are telling you to put it into the complete context. For example, why is no one paying attention to his appearance at Waffle House later the same night where Biden was fine, almost as if the cold medicine had worn off? Meanwhile, Trump every single day shows he cannot speak coherently even with a teleprompter.
Keeping Biden offers less risk but also less drama, energy and excitement than replacing him, with no assurance that it would make any difference. The great operational question before us is not “Is Joe Biden too old?” Your hyperbole is unhelpful. Biden is far, far from "comatose." Way to spread right-wing propaganda.. The question is “Do you trust the delegates to the Democratic convention in Chicago to replace the present ticket with a supposedly more winning ticket without ripping their party apart in catastrophic ways?” The Democrats are a coalition party, not a base party, and they need coalition leadership.
The only guarantee is no matter what happens, if Trump slithers through the Electoral College (with a fraction of one percent of the vote), the Dems will viciously scapegoat someone.
“Based on the hype.” It was a setup, then?
It’s a holy war to them. And as Stephen Spender put it a century ago observing the Spanish civil war (paraphrasing), “the opposing side weren’t people; they were objectionable theses, with a lead bullet as the white out.”
Kevin Roberts is a *radical* Catholic. I am Catholic as well and have never encountered anyone with attitude and beliefs as bellicose as his.
That's what he's saying.
And people waved away the description of “fascism” and comparisons to Hitler and how he came to power but it was always there.
Yep, the road to fascism is paved with people telling us we are over reacting.
I read Shirer (Berlin Diary, Rise and Fall of the Third Reich) and you Evans (The Coming of the Third Reich, The Third Reich in Power and The Third Reich at War) - highly recommend, especially Evans because it’s highly readable and with more recent scholarship. Or just watch the Netflix series “Hitler and the Nazis - Evil on Trial.” I have a special interest as my Mother is German and suffered during Nazi era (my grandfather was drafted (conscripted) to fight on the Eastern Front (he died) and my great-grandfather was put in a Concentration Camp for being a political enemy (Communist).
Yeah, I've read Shirer, and I'm currently watching the documentary.
Lots of parallels to current conditions in America. I don't think we'll end up with millions murdered, but we'll end up with wrongful imprisonments at a minimum.
I haven't given up completely, but I think there is a better than 50% chance we will effectively be a dictatorship a year from now. People will still be pretending like we aren't (Putin wins 97% of the vote in Russian "elections") but we very well may be there.
The scariest part is the team of people who will be working with Trump. They're dedicated to ending democracy and installing an authoritarian regime.
Just wondering if this guy has Secret Service protection. It sounds like he's subtly hinting at creating a civil war against his enemies (us).
He can try civil-warring us if he wants. He'll bleed as red as his stupid cap.
I am so sick and tired of the gasbags. They harp and yarp about how tough they are, how revolutionary, but if they found themselves in the civil war they claim they want, they'd hide in a bunker like their Dear Leader did on J6.
God spare us from the "tough guys" of the Culture Wars. They're not dangerous, they'll only bore us to death.
Yeah, if they really want blood they're going to get it and get it good. Most of it is just cosplay from these guys.
..too many stumbling MAGA drunks, too few third story windows..
Note how these evil people refer to anyone not in their cult as "the left." Apparently that now incudes staunch conservatives like Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger.
Back in 2015/16 it was commonplace for someone who preferred another GOP candidate over Trump to be called a "leftist." Trump exploits that mentality by pinning the label "radical left" on practically anyone who crosses him.
It's nice that the Bulwark guys buried it, right?
How was it "buried" ? - "Cheap Shots" is one I always read.
And you don't need an essay from Bill or Andrew to explain the implied threat.
Pretty sure we need more essays from Bill and Andrew on the threat. But their focus is Biden right now.
And 'cheap shots' is burying the lead.
What we need is the Biden campaign to put these things front and center. Make the campaign about how Trump's people are insane.
Agreed. By putting it in "Cheap Shots" instead of in a long narrative, it gets more exposure, not less.
Agreed, it closes down the TLDR of it all!!!
To be fair, having Hunter involved in high-level discussions right now is politically indefensible.
To be fair, the Biden must go narrative won't write itself.
I would vote for a comatose Biden if it's against Trump. It doesn't matter whom I personally vote for... what matters in the election is whom several tens of thousands of swing voters in key states vote for. And this is why how Biden presents himself to the people at large matters greatly for this, the highest-stakes election of our lives. The folks against Trump will not waver. It's the swing voters we badly need to keep our democracy alive.
What matters is not what Kristol and Eggers write for their audience (I doubt that any Bulwark subscriber is an undecided swing voter) but how Biden is seen by those swing voters I mentioned whose votes will decide the election and the fate of democracy in our country. All sufficiently educated or knowledgeable people know there is a considerable apparatus surrounding the President that takes care of the details, but big decisions ultimately end up with the big guy. This is why it matters how the President comes across to the people at large.
All of us here want the same end-result - defeat of a would-be autocrat. The question is about the best set of tactics to get us from here to that end-result, which will be decided in just over 4 months.
Prepare to lose
Jennifer, have you been on the Bulwark site? Since the ruling, there have been a bevy of articles in regard to the outcome. Perhaps not written by Bill, Andrew, Tim, etc.... but folks who actually have expertise in the area. I am pretty sure at this point; we all know how awful the threat is. It will be even worse if the Dems lose the presidency and Trump gets to name some more to the court. This ruling makes the Biden crisis an even bigger deal.
Or the complete destruction of the GOP starting in November.
It's stuff like this that I remind myself why the universe didn't allow me to be a billionaire - if I had the $$ to arrange certain "events" I fear my worst primal instincts would take over.
Revolutions have a purpose, a cause. What’s their cause? We are not oppressing them! It’s a paranoid delusion. If anything, they are oppressing us, imposing their values on us. (10 Commandment in every classroom, eg)
Enough on Biden dropping out. He is an excellent President and should have all our support. Responding to a lying bully was always going to be difficult.
I think he's generally been a good President these past four years.
I am not confident he can be President *at all* for the next four years.
Obviously president is a big job. But I think it's nonsensical to act like it's some sort of athletic gig. There's a staff, advisers and experts to confer with on any issue that comes up during a presidency. There's a constitutionally created succession plan in a vice-president should anything happen to a president. Biden's got 2 jobs right now - to be the president AND to win an election in November. I don't know if he can convince enough of our superficial and impressionable citizenry to bother voting for him again, and the discussion of a practical alternative exists, but the only realistic, real world alternative to run in Nov. is Harris. That's just the reality when considering name recognition and pledged delegates and even a bit of racial identity (and gender) in the mix.Stop, just stop, with the argument of "how will he be in 4 years". If he gets re-elected, a VP with exactly the same administrative staff will step in.
"superficial and impressionable citizenry" You hit the nail on the head with that description!
"If he gets re-elected..."
That's a might big "if." I am not troubled by his serving four more years as President for the reasons you cite. The problem is he's not going to get that chance because nearly 75% of the public doesn't think he's fit for another term. That's just reality. Biden is likely going to lose if the Ds don't change their nominee.
I do not have your crystal ball. As a European I assure you Trump scares all of us. He will pull out of NATO and stop support for Ukraine. Not to mention all the new power he was given by the Supreme Court. We all need to recognize the job Biden has done and will do. Not to mention the superior people he has elevated to important roles.
Biden will have the Admin. needed to continue. Replacing him now (rather than in '23 or early '24) is foolish. The mass population should all support Biden as Trump has already told the elites what he'll do to help them. Trump has the wealthy/big business, the Republican pols, right-wing SCOTUS, and the magas. The remainder of Republicans, hopefully, will finally understand his indecency, ineptness, greed/narcissism, disinterest in laws binding him from what he feels he needs to do to increase/keep power.
Sure the people should all support Biden, but the reality is they won't, and there is nothing we can do about that, and neither can Biden. Concerns about his age will not go away. It's too late for Republicans, they are lost in a cult. No one on their side is going to save us.
Will Biden make them understand that?
You're right on his chances seeming pretty slim. But if they end up keeping Biden as the candidate anyway, I would hope the 'next 4 years' point doesn't get beaten to death and become another 'brainworm' in the average low-info voter's mind.
You realize that is all in the past, right?
Yes, we have a VP "if" he gets elected who can step in, but you have to agree that this is not an ideal situation that will convince undecided voters to vote D. "Don't worry, the VP can step in if the President is mentally incapable" does not make a compelling campaign message!
Not sure about that, at least one recent poll has Harris doing better against Trump vs Biden against Trump.
It's the campaign he can't do
Every single pundit, newspaper editorial board, columnist, and Democratic congressperson (fuck off, Lloyd Doggett, I’d voted for you in Texas every two years since the ‘70s) should make it super-clear — all day, every day and in a voice that can be heard — that nothing less than American democracy is at stake this November. That conversation should start happening right now.
V
The chaos Biden's alleged unfitness has unleashed doesn’t come close to what’s actually at stake this November: Americans voting either to recommit themselves to Democracy or to surrender to fascism. That’s it. Treason is legal now.
You vote for Biden or for Harris or for whoever is the head of the Democratic ticket; or you prepare for a life run by fascists. Should you not vote at all or choose to vote for a third party candidate, expect an autocracy.
Since Mike Johnson is 2nd in line for the presidency, does that make him vice president?
No. Only if the VP dies before a successor VP is chosen by them. That choice has to be approved by both chambers of congress, but it won't be the House leader.
Thank you. I was worried about that.
I'm always confused by this. People (generally on the Left and Democratic voters) insist that America will never elect a woman to the presidency because of sexism/misogyny, or a black person because of racism (Obama was the exception that proves the rule I guess?). Then why do these same people insist that the party diversify and nominate more women/people of color and stop having old white guys at the top of the ticket? Don't the Dems want to win?
It's not easy, but not impossible. All of Trump's weaknesses you mentioned in another previous post still apply vs Harris (and his age being a big weakness). Counterintuitively it would probably be easier for the GOP to get a woman or non-white candidate elected president, except they don't have enough of either to be taken seriously. Tribalism is a much bigger factor than ethnicity and sex when it comes to politics in America. Anyone who wouldn't vote for Harris because she's a black woman probably wouldn't vote for Biden either, because that voter is already firmly in the GOP camp.
Because of a 90-minute awful performance that has nothing whatever to do with the actual duties of the President? He's the nominee. We all need to get behind him or pay the very dire consequences. Enough already.
No. Loyalty to a man is the GOP. I prefer loyalty to the country. Our democracy.
This isn’t loyalty to Biden. Do you really think that anyone is saying “it’s Biden or the highway?” It’s a political calculation that NOT replacing Biden is less risky and has more upside than replacing him. No one knows what will happen, everyone is making calculated guesses.
So you're voting for "our democracy"? Biden is the nominee. He has never presented as a narcissist or an autocrat. He has always presented as loyal to our democracy. What exactly are you talking about?
I’m talking about not losing our democracy, forever. I’m talking about injecting some urgency and paying attention to the concerns of the young.
The concerns of the young? Are those concerns different from the concerns of everyone else wanting justice, equality, clean air and water, quality public education, quality/affordable healthcare, an end to homelessness . . . ?
Biden will get us closer to the things we want. At this moment, he is the only viable choice. Ideology is nice and all, but pragmatism is crucial.
By coincidence I just finished writing about this on my own substack, after the smoke billowing from my ears finally cleared up.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-146244665?r=u3xr&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
That is the issue. Something has happened health wise. The obfuscation reduces his credibility and tarnishes his reputation.
He needs a full workup and the American people deserve to know the results. I
When does the public or at least the Bulwark demand the same full work up for trump? Why isn’t that an issue. Why are so many people here and in the pundit class not insisting on that? You all have one standard for authoritarians and another very much more demanding for Biden.
There is a difference to me. The voters who have nominated Trump had his craziness in their face for the 4 years of his presidency, and the last 3 years with his crazy bleats. Even though it is apparent that he's nuts, the Republican voters have nonetheless chosen him - they have chosen crazy. With Biden, the voters who nominated him have been told that he's fine and able to do the job, and voted for him presumably on that basis. But on Thursday night that suddenly didn't seem to be the case.
Well the president is elected to support the country. The country has a right to know what his health report really says/is. If people kept insisting on it he the magats would avoid it but it could be an issue if the pundit class pursued it as doggedly as they are Biden’s health. Pin the beginning of trump’s term, dozens of psychiatric professionals wrote a letter saying he was unfit. Others have done the same. The media continues to hold trump to a lesser standard as seemingly do many here in these posts.
Agreed
With Midwest Transplant
The real question is: can he be a good *candidate* for the next four months?
Exactly. Most of us agree that Biden has been a good or even great president. What we are concerned about is that he is not electable. That he will not beat the felon no matter how much we scream he’s been a great president and can do the job until he’s 86! He needs independents and based on polling they do not believe that he is fit to president. Yes, Trump is 1000000000000000x more unfit than Biden but that is not the calculation. It is simply does Joe Biden or Kamala Harris provide the best chance to beat the felon?
This is an issue that the "ride or die" crowd ignore. Biden himself needs to persuade voters that he is up to the job -- and the indicators say he is not doing so.
The people who are worried about the electability factor are not closet Trump supporters or mere "fair-weather friends," as some are alleging. They want to stop Trump -- and they have reason to fear that Biden is not the one who can do it this time around.
Do you ever wonder whether there should occasionally be a period of time without a president--sort of a time out for the country...
*sniff* You're listing all of my broken dreams *sob*
Well, that’s why we elect a President and VP to provide certainty that the platform you voted for will have continuity in the event anything should happen.
That is yesterday. Please focus on tomorrow
Because my eyes and ears still work.
(And yes, you got me, I've always made it clear in years of substack writing and blogging that I'm absolutely totally going to vote for Trump, yessir.)
Do you want to win, or do you want to go down in flames. Biden was a good president, but now he’s experiencing a cognitive decline. We have no idea whether he can perform his duties effectively for another four years. And we don’t elect his advisors, who have not been vetted.
Ironically, the same people who tell us that this election is critical; Too Much is at stake,” are gaslighting themselves, and the rest of us by living in denial.
Too much is at stake when Biden is losing in every swing state (seven). This isn’t a one off! Concerns have been circulating for over a year, and we have been lied to by Biden, his family, and his advisors.
It’s time to have a contingency plan of Biden can’t alleviate the naysayers effectively. Otherwise, all is lost!
So continue to support Biden, but you do so at your own peril. And sadly, that “peril” will be the death of all of us.
IMHO!…:)
Biden's skack-jawed, lost & bewildered facial expression in the debate performance, and the loss of his train of thought and wandering off the topic of his talking point wasn't a "one-off" or a "first time".
Prior to this were many similar moments published in the press and broadcast media that were already souring the opinions of undecided voters.
.
Personally I'm encouraging the defeat of every MAGA candidate from Trump down to local dog-catchers, but pretending the public isn't seeing the age releated decline right in front of their eyes is self-defeating.
When Democrats say: "don't believe the evidence of your eyes.." to the undecideds we put every cause and position in doubt with them.
Exactly! A lot of democrats are gaslighting themselves, and then trying to gaslight the rest of us. Thursday’s debacle cannot be unseen….:)
The debate performance added a big pile of credibility to the prior reporting and rumors about declining acuity. The people dismissing it as "one bad night" are not being realistic about the whole picture.
I will once again state my position (not necessarily everyone's) is that Joe's run the country well for the past several years, we saw the debate and it was ugly, but finding a better candidate at this point is more risky than staying with Joe and understanding that's the better of the 2 evils.
I totally get that many people think this is no longer a choice and you have to pick someone else.
I just disagree with that but see your point. God's speed in finding the replacement. Kamala would seem to me to be the ONLY viable choice but many disagree with me on that as well.
I'm fine with disagreeing but please don't act like we are ignoring what was on full display on Thursday night although I think to think he wanders around the WH with his mouth agape is hyperbolic. Like Joe, I did my share of that watching/listening to Trump's firehose of lies that night...
I respectfully disagree. This is not “one bad night.” The concern had been floated for over a year, and the administration continually hid this fact from the American people, and denied it as propaganda and fake news. That’s election malpractice; especially in an election where “too much is at stake!”
As for Biden running the country well? I’d say he did a great job, but now is the time to retire with dignity. Churchill was a war PM. He was a terrible PM during peace times and voted out. Sometimes we rise to “an” occasion, not “every” occasion…:)
That said, Biden has cognitive disabilities which comes with aging. Unless you can tell me that he will be fine for the next four years, then he should not be running. We not electing his advisors who haven’t fully been vetted.
And as for changing horses midstream. In an ordinary election year, I’d agree; this is far from an ordinary election campaign. The good news is that most Americans would prefer a younger choice whether it’s Biden or Trump, so there is an upside to switching horses, not to mention, the billions in free advertising Harris would get.
Biden does not inspire anyone. Perhaps a new candidate will galvanize all the democrats who would rather stay home, independents, and never Trumper’s, who are just as flabbergasted by Thursday’s debate performance, as we were.
He looked great at the State of the Union so it's not been as obvious as you all seem to make it...especially given that he's simply old. Not to mention that if you read a transcript of the debate...95% of what he said was truthful and appropriate...just poorly delivered.
Again...my BIGGEST point here is that you are introducing MORE risk items by changing horses. The Kamala option presents the least amount of those.
I get it...you think the risk of staying with Biden is more than the risk of switching. We may get to see how it goes...and if so...I hope you're right.
I wouldn’t be so down on Biden if it weren’t for the fact that his team had not made him accessible for over a year. Thursday night was his time to shine and prove the naysayers wrong. And if you look at the polling, any progress in the polls that Biden made, is gone. Now he’s losing by wider margins.
In 2020, Biden was in the lead the entire time. In 2024, he’s been losing the entire time. We aren’t MAGA. We’re fighting for democracy, not for Biden’s place in history.
And if Biden has another “senior” moment ( being very generous) like Thursday, we won’t recover. The election would be over, and the only possible good news would be if he doesn’t take the entire “down-ballot” ticket with him….:)
What is your evidence for the statement "he is experiencing a cognitive decline?" If you read the transcript of the debate--without the hoarse, weak voice--you will see that he makes complete sense. Seth Abramson wrote an outstanding piece about this, which also explains the Gish Gallop; Heather Cox Richardson also explained the Gish Gallop. Biden was clearly ill. He also has a stutter, which was pronounced under the stress of the Gish Gallop. Again, his actual words made perfect sense. If you are interested in autocracy, carry on. Otherwise, get behind the Biden team.
Pamela, I’m not interested in autocracy, which is why Incant support Biden anymore. Don’t get me wrong; he has my vote, but I’m not the issue.
Biden won the last election by 7 million votes nationally, but only won the electoral college by 40-50 thousand votes in three key swing states. Yet now, he’s behind in all seven swing states, including three “must win”’swing states: MI, WI, and PA. Not exactly a winning formula.
And this was not just one bad night as you would have us believe. This issue has been circulating and denied by Biden for over a year. Thursday was his chance to convince his voter he was fine: all evidence points to the contrary.
We can’t elect a man for six months or a year. He’s president for four years. Do you honestly believe he will be able to do this job for four years, when his own advisers have refused to allow him to participate in news conferences and MSM interviews?
Right now we need to be focused on all of Trump’s lies and the Heritage Foundations’s Project 2025. Instead, the media will continue to make Biden the issue until he either shows he’s up for the job, or proves he’s not. Either way, Trump’s lies go unanswered, and his lies will eventually become alternative facts believed by enough voters to win the election.
How can we support a man who can’t even articulate his own accomplishments? Today, 35% of Americans believe that Biden is responsible the end of Roe v Wade. 60% of Americans believe that Trump is better for the economy and as a defender of democracy. These are actual facts.
So it doesn’t matter what Biden has accomplished because most people have no idea. And as the adage goes: if a tree falls in the forest, does anyone hear it? Or better yet, does it matter?
Bottom line: Biden has been ineffective at communicating his wins, or convincing Americans to give him a second term. And now we’re playing defense at a time when our democracy is on the menu. And sadly, the man more Americans believe is ready to lead this country into the future, isn’t Biden, it’s Trump.
I refuse to commit Seppuku without a fight. Backing Biden is suicide! IMHO…:)
The only viable next choice is Kamala...otherwise the Biden replacement is found running on their own record (which is what?) or....awkwardly...the Biden record... the guy we just kicked out.
The thing to understand about my position is that I'm not "Biden or nothing"...I just believe that switching horses at this stage of the game brings in more risks than with Biden running.
Everyone says Biden's going to lose, but I'm not so sure of that come November.
But it wasn't complete sense. In talking about abortion rights, he flips to talking about a woman being killed by an immigrant and Trump going to her funeral. When talking about the economy, he ends his remark with an emphatic "and we beat Medicare!" which had nothing to do with the discussion. His brain seemed to switch topics mid-stream.
"His actual words make sense." Were we watching the same debate?
I love Joe Biden! But burying our heads in the sand is for ostriches.
Here are some of Joe Biden's "actual words" that are going to be played on a continuous loop by Republicans: "Look, if we finally beat Medicare."
Then instead of confusing the issue and bashing the president, why not say that you don’t support him because you think he won’t win. That appears to be your main issue.
I’m sorry, what exactly in my comments would suggest otherwise? Of course I don’t think he can win. All evidence and polling for the last year shows Biden behind, which supports the fact that Biden can’t win.
I wish Biden could win. He has my vote, but I’m not the issue. The issue is whether Biden can win; he can’t, and hopefully, he will do the right thing and drop out of the race.
Yeah and the Red wave predicted by all the pollsters and pundits was so accurate.
Biden has been and is now losing by a wider margin in every battleground state. This is a fact. I like Biden, but Inlove our democracy and our freedoms more.
It’s a risk, but less than the risk of sticking with Biden.
I will vote for Biden ahead of Trump because Trump is a menace.
The issue is that the swing voters who decide elections are breaking the other way, and mostly, it appears, because they think Biden is too mentally impaired. How would you persuade them that they are wrong?
He can’t win because 76% of voters think he’s too old.
Some of us think he can't win because he doesn't have the strength, stamina, vigor or mental agility it takes to RUN for President. And that's pretty important.
It takes nothing away from my admiration of everything he's done as President. Of course, if he's the nominee, I will vote for him. But the most important thing is stopping Trump from winning. Can Biden do that?
None of us has a crystal ball. I’m uncomfortable with all the Biden can do this, or can’t do that. Biden is demented, Biden can’t keep up. Biden does more stuff in a day than I do in a week and I take care of my home, work two part time jobs and volunteer for animal welfare orgs.
And really some of the pundits are closer to Biden’s age- Bill Kristol is 71. Charlie Sykes is 69. What is the universal cut off age for old? If republicans win they’ll have old people all working bc they want to end social security. How did it happen that Biden was doing the job - flying all over the world, attending the G-7 and now he’s toast. Mel Brooks is 98 and still working as are many other people. I realize that Biden’s job is unique but CTFO.
We are all getting older every damn day and the media, including the Bulwark is addicted to writing the best and nastiest headlines to work the public up and make everyone more angry. FFS! Enough.
And it escapes me as to why an old republican like KRISTOL, who hasn’t really changed is getting so much trust from people here.
My problem with the nature of this entire argument is exactly what you said "Do you want to win or go down in flames?". Hitching our wagon to VP Harris would certainly lead to us going down in flames. There is a reason why it was very well known that she was not a particularly well-liked or charismatic politician, that hasn't changed. We need to stop convincing ourselves that the alternative is better just because it is an alternative.
She’s a different person than before. And she was a prosecutor who was great on the Judicial Committee in the Senate. She can definitely counteract all of Trump’s lies and since she’s a woman, would be better at communicating the abortion issue.
Right now Harris is polling better than Trump in a one on one contest. And whether you like it or not, Biden is losing in every swing state needed to win this election: all seven!
Biden won by 7 million votes in 2020, yet only won the electoral college by 40-50 thousand votes in three swing states, that tipped the election in his favor. So please elaborate as to how Biden can win this election?
An alternative isn’t necessarily better, but we need a Hail Mary, because right now, Trump wins handedly. And one aspect is in our favor. Most voters, and especially much needed independents, would prefer a younger, generic candidate to either Trump or Biden.
Yes. Let's be honest, Biden has objectively aged greatly since 2020. Trump, on the other hand, has barely changed, he was crazy af back then and he's a slightly crazier sob now, but it's hard to tell because he was so crazy already in 2016! So Biden going downhill fast only hurts him and the Dems, while nothing Trump does is going to hurt him much, because the craziness is already baked in and his supporters actually like the crazy!
Everybody knows Trump is lying in the first place. Her calling him out would not enlighten anyone about who Donald Trump actually is. The recently released polls showing a Kamala lead over Biden in a head to head against Trump is appealing on it’s surface, but there are too many people trying to grasp at a fleeting moment in time in order to justify upending a Presidential campaign with 5 months to go. Again, lets take a step back and look at this poll. It would go against everything we know about politics to believe that there is a block of voters significant enough to swing an election that would vote for Harris over Trump but not Biden over Trump. This is evidence that shows Biden should stay in this race. This shows that there are people who are clearly dissatisfied with both the options, and they finally have the ability to voice that dissatisfaction in a poll. These same people, almost certainly, would be checking Joe Bidens name in November. Taking that gamble is far less risky than the gamble of nominating someone new at this point. Doing so would create an environment in which there would be so much focus on the chaos in the Democratic party, there would be no time, and no attention given towards working to defeat Donald Trump.
My point exactly, this isn’t a new story and if there wasn’t a push to replace him 4,5,6 months ago, then the time has passed and our bed has been made. It’s not my fault you all regret your decision of staying silent, but don’t change up now. You’ll be jumping from a sinking ship with a chance of staying afloat to another sinking ship (but it might also stay afloat) that’s your logic after all, isn’t it?
No her candidacy would not take us down in flames. It's just as likely Trump would be so triggered by running against a much younger black woman, he would take his own candidacy down in flames.
If Trump being a convicted felon, being found liable for rape, causing January 6th hasn't brought down his candidacy then why should I believe that Kamala Harris would be his kryptonite. There is no reason why we should believe that to be true.
Because his cognitive decline is coupled with a severe personality disorder. What Litt impulse control he had over his outbursts is slipping. He was saved in the debate by the two minute mic mute. If that wasn't there we would have had a totally different debate. One worse than the first debate in 2020. A format that was supposed to favor Biden only served to protect Trump.
It's not outside the realm of possibility, sure, yet you say this as if it would be a certain fact as where I read it and find it to be a very unlikely outcome.
“Everybody knows Trump is lying in the first place.”
No, they don’t! That’s the problem. Trump has an entire media ecosystem dedicated to defending his lies, and making them alternative facts. And his ecosystem has grown even larger since Biden was inaugurated. Univision was bought by a friend of Kushner’s and has reprogrammed its content to be pro-Trump. Trump has gained double digits in the Hispanic community as a result.
The Baltimore Sun was bought by Sinclair and is reprogramming their content to make Trump out to be a big supporter of the African American community and then broadcasting articles on every Sinclair local media channel available. Trump has gained African American support as a result.
And don’t expect the MSM to save the day. Did you notice the lack of fact checking during the debate? And since Biden’s debacle, the only thing anyone is talking about in the media and on websites like this is whether Biden can recover, or should resign from this campaign.
That said, 54% of American adults read at a six grade level or lower. American is ranked 125 out of 195 in literacy around the world. So no, “EVERYONE doesn’t know Trump is a liar; if they did, more than 55% of Americans wouldn’t believe that Trump is better for the economy or democracy, yet, they do!
Robert, is people consume media within the Trump ecosystem, Kamala Harris, no matter what she says or how she says it, is not going to be able to convince them about much of anything. You don't need to be engrossed within politics to know that Trump says outlandish things or to know that he is a liar. The simple fact is that most people just do not care at this point. For the swing voters in swing states who are often older and educated, they certainly know he is a liar. How can you convince yourself that after 8 years, Kamala Harris is the answer all along to making people see the light about Trump?
Well then, please tell me why Biden has been losing in every swing state since the campaign started,and has never taken the lead? He was even up in NH by 12, and now is down by 3; a nine point swing as of yesterday.
But let’s stick with Biden as the walls slowly collapse all around us: Great strategy Matt!
Feel free to go down with the ship. I’m calling for a new captain: End of story!
The simple logic test for this situation is: Do you truly believe that there are is substantial block of voters (large enough to swing an election) that would vote for Harris over Trump but NOT Biden over Trump? That feels as though it is based purely in fantasy, not reality.
Maybe. Harris is 59 yo and a younger generation that Biden and Trump.. She can land blows about Trump’s age and unfitness that Joe Biden could never do. She may not be the first choice for many Dems and Independents. However, Biden is polling behind Harris. Harris and a good solid VP choice running with her may be our best shot. No, I don't know for certain. Nobody does. It is clear that there are serious questions about Biden's health that may have been managed behind the scenes. No one wants to see Biden disrespected or humiliated.
Nobody knows for certain, exactly. Yet my assesment of this situation is that it would be far riskier to nominate someone new at this point as opposed to staying with Joe Biden, who lets not forget, has still managed to run this country very well. I don't know for certain Biden would win, I don't know for certain if Kamala would win, but I would rather not take a massive gamble for something that I am equally not certain about.
You don’t need a test. 60-65% of Americans have stated repeatedly that they would prefer a younger person to both Biden and Trump, so there’s that!…:)
Sure, then we should have had this discussion a year ago. Creating a firestorm 5 months out about replacing Biden with an (unpopular) younger person is doing more harm then sucking it up and sticking behind our guy. If republicans can get behind Trump and his baggage, then why should we self-destruct.
Actually, Trump is a lying (clocking in at more than 45K lies during his term alone and tens of thousands more before and after that abysmal time); sleazy (from "grab 'em by the pu...." to his gropes/assaults on one or more females/possible r@pes, and walking into a dressing room full of half-naked females during his tenure with The Miss Universe Org); cheating (from his trysts with other females while married - every time to his money laundering hush money pays to keep it quiet to his enablers helping to 'catch & kill" damaging info confirming his lack of decency that would take away votes from his pursuit of power and election win); to his thefts (from funneling money from The Trump Found., which was shuttered in response to the confirmation of his crime in 2017 after he swiped $2 million from a military charity fundraiser, funneled it to his campaign where Time Magazine informed the nation of what he had done to the government's help in obtaining a court order for him to repay it - not a felony charge which any private citizen who committed a crime should have received...no, this con man/thief/indecent being with no morals to speak of, received a court order - even though he was a private citizen when he committed the crime. Reason? The powers that were did not want to embarass themselves in having a sitting president indicting fro a crime (he committed). Trump did not deny the theft. He did not appeal the court order. He complied and paid it. We now have an unfit, unbalanced, unscrupulous, amoral, wack job who craves power/wealth/adulation & will stop at nothing to obtain it. And the entire slate of corrupt Republican politicians and judges will be glad to assist.
Add to that rot, his crimes committed while in Office - that are being legally allowed by a questionably right-wing (and morally bankrupt) SCOTUS. From Trump's treason (inciting the insurrection/calling for an attack on the Capitol - the government - to many attempts (and failures) to rig the election/coerce non-existent votes so he'd win the state, carry on fraud for years with the claim of a stolen election when he was the thief, etc. Trump should've been charged for his godawful neglect of the mass population during COVID - every aspect of it (including the skyrocketing death toll, cratered economy, soaring unemployment/business closings/food & product shortages/price gougings, and horrific bungling of vaccine acquisition - including throwing $265 million at Fuji Film for a vaccine.
Other Trump neglect includes: removing consumer/environmental protections, bilking millions from taxpayers, shutting down the government to get more $ (effectively blocking all Fed. workers from getting paychecks and all needy from receiving services - while the shutdown was in effect. Trump embedded his shady business interests into the Presidency and amassed millions (violating Constitutional law/the Emoluments Clause). Trump did not find something better/cheaper to replace Obamacare, as promised - he tried to kill it altogether. Trump failed to lower drug prices - as promised. He failed to keep businesses in America - as promised, Trump's huge/long-term tax cuts for the wealthy massively increased the national debt.
Worst of all (besides his decades of disloyalty, predatory malevolence and indecency towards many was his support of tyranical maniacs who ordered the deaths of many of their own people - but stood by as two particular Americans were murdered/tortured. A member of the Saudi Regime ordered the murder/dismemberment of an American citizen/NY Times reporter. Trump supported the regime. Kim Jong-un, despotic leader of N. Korea stood by as an American student was tortured/put into a coma/and soon died. Trump did nothing but exchange love letters with Jong-un.
Trump's slurs against U.S. allies, females, military heroes, disabled individuals, ethnic groups, former friends/colleagues, Democrats, all those who attempted to prosecute him for his crimes, his own VP, Rep. & Dem. Pres., a former Rep. Sec. of State, all media (except the right-wing propaganda outlets that withhold damaging & truthful info re his lack of decency/humanity/loaylty/ethics/adherence to the law, etc.
And, this monsters - who vowed vengeance over many (for any reason at all), a dictatorship of horror, more of the same - and much worse.....wants another chance?
Other than promising more tax cuts for the elite, more money for the fossil fuel industry, more power for him & less for any other branch, hell for the masses, loss of freedom, attempts to quiet the media who is against him, more sociopathic/psychopathic behaviors & malevolence - what is he offering?
Yeah, but it's more fun for Conservatives to focus on the shortcomings of Democrats.
Who are these "conservatives" you speak of? I see none.
Bill Kristol isn't a conservative?
I think Bill is a conservative.
My poorly made point is that almost all true conservatives have left the Republican party and there is very little about the current Republican party that is conservative.
Very, very true, but they keep calling themselves "conservative." Coming up with confidence labels on a message board is tough. :)
No they haven't. Hogan, Romney, Ryan, and many others still are a part of the GOP and identify as Republican.
Name a GOP who shifted to Independent. None.
those that support trump are the conservatives he's talking about
Right. Humpty Dumpty did say, "Words mean what I pay them to mean, nothing more and nothing less."
I don't believe Conservative is the correct term, anymore. It's right-wing as Trump has been extreme in his law-breaking (in spite of the aid SCOTUS judges & the slate of Republicans provide), hunger for power, and enrichment of the elite & harm to the masses.
I get it, they just aren't conservative.
Sure they are. They call themselves conservative.
Do you prefer corrupt individuals/groups or right wing?
I prefer right wing, authoritarian or fascist.
All conservatives.
I learned recently that projecting a blizzard of lies so that an opponent cannot respond to them all is a bad faith debate tactic of long standing.
The Gish Gallop was first positing in, I think, 1994.
Yep.
No one is saying he hasn't been a good President. They're saying he can't win another term because he's clearly aged considerably since he ran 4 years ago.
I'd buy that if Biden responded to Trump's blizzard of lies, but he didn't effectively respond to any of it. Yes, Biden has been an excellent president. But he appears to be in the early stages of dementia and, if that's true, it's only going to get worse.
Yeah, problem is, he didn't respond to the lying bully at all.
But then he'd be pilloried for not being "presidential." No matter what, this was going to be spun as bad news for Biden.
See a comment above. The firehouse of lies and nonsequitors Trump spewed is a deliberate tactic meant to keep your opponent from answering/challenging. Sure Biden could have gotten a few more punches in, but that was the point of Trump’s barrage.
There are ways to deal with a Gish Gallop.
First, you point out that is the technique being used and why Trump is using it.
Second, you don't refute all lies, but you thoroughly refute a couple of the big ones.
I was fairly horrified when Biden started talking about his own golf handicap. The obvious response is that it wasn't a president's job to golf. The biggest frustration of that night is that Trump was completely unhinged and easily refuted, but Biden just couldn't do it.
Right! Where was this line? “I’m running for President because I want to make life better for the American people, to support Democracy around the world and defend our allied against aggression from foreign actors. My opponent is running for President to stay out of jail.”
Instead, we got mumbling about golf handicaps.
Try doing his travel/event schedule he did prior to the debates, add in debate prep, oh, and throw in a cold or the flu on top of that and see how well you would do.
Most presidents running for re-election handle that triple-play fine. If Biden had a cold or flu, he should have said so before the debate and had it rescheduled. Since he said nothing, the absence of medical information allowed the world to see him as senile rather than, perhaps, hit hard by a cold or flu.
Plus, if his cold was really that bad, why was he in NC the next day, mingling with supporters. Yes, his remarks were better, but he was reading from the teleprompter.
How is he doing with off the cuff remarks? Can he do interviews?
I think I’d do fine. Might be tired, but I’d be coherent. He needed a C- performance. He turned in an F.
I am astonished at how quickly writers at the bulwark have turned on Biden.
If people choose Trump or stay home rather than vote for Biden, then it is folly to think that they would support any other Democrat.
It is a sign of health that the Democratic party - unlike maga Republicans - can ask the question of fitness.
But this seems like wholesale panic and bedwetting in over one bad debate.
He can't win, face it
I haven't seen a single person on this Substack saying that Joe Biden hasn't been a good President. Even a great President. What some of us are saying is that, based on his debate performance & the reports of leaders who saw & heard Biden in Europe, we are not convinced that Joe Biden has the strength, vigor or mental agility to RUN for President.
Ezra Klein said something important in his New Yorker interview with Isaac Chotiner that is worth remembering: "There's not a vote Ruth Bader Ginsburg cast or a decision that she authored that was as consequential as her decision not to retire."
Pretty much everyone who was rooting for Biden expected him to do considerably better than he did. A good many other people would have done much better.
If Biden can't stand up to Trump in a debate, can he stand up to the world's bad actors? Some European diplomats have expressed concern that he would not do well in a room facing Putin. Some have reported that efforts were made to be protective of him at the G7 summit. If our close allies see the president to the United States as someone who has become feeble, that doesn't inspire confidence.
I'll take the 'Biden ride or die crowd' over the 'Biden fantasy football crowd' any day of the week, who have a new Biden doom story every day then act as though they aren't a part of perpetuating the cycle of Biden doom stories.
👆🏻This, 100% this!
It's hard to balance, especially in the era of the "hot take".
Meanwhile, Trump has gotten away with the firehose of lies he spewed and the truly disgusting and alarming things he said about immigrants, Roe, etc.
Interestingly, the Heritage foundation's rhetoric about a second revolution is exactly the same as the Confederates during the Civil War.
Yep. I wish there were an "unlike" icon, like a heart with an arrow through it, which is basically what the GOP is planning for America. In this wretched era it truly sounds like the Confederacy redux.
I wish some of these Southern States wanted to secede. Better that than taking over the whole country.
Not so interesting since Heritage ceased to be a conservative think tank with the appointment of Jim DeMint. It’s a paleo-conservative organization now lock, stock and barrel.
Fine, Bill, you want to kick Biden to the curb ( we know)...could you please manage not to sound so gleeful about it happening? Mainly so I can keep reading you guys without crying...thanks.
I assure you none of us are feeling gleeful! It's a grim grim time.
No, but some of you do feel vindicated and that is more than a little unwarranted in this context.
Well, thanks Andrew, I want to be clear I love all you guys, and I have defended Bill and Mona repeatedly in the comments...it is just that Bill has wanted this for a long time, and his tone just seemed to be different than everyone elses.
Great to see the Biden team sticking with the running insult to his own party that he's the only one for this job. If the guy we saw on the debate stage Thursday is the only one in the entire Democratic Party for this job, then they may as well scrap the entire party and start from scratch. The more they lie to me, the angrier it makes me. And this canard about jet lag when all he did a week before the debate was prep is total nonsense. When Republicans insult their voters' intelligence, their voters don't seem to care. It doesn't work that way with me.
I've long since come to the conclusion that the Democratic Party is headed up by a lot of smart people who 1) are too impressed with how smart they are and 2) aren't as smart as they think they are. The fact that I support them and their goals does not necessarily mean that I align with how they do business, which too often leaves a lot to be desired.
I agree. Well said. And I say so as a lifelong Democrat. The ways in which the Democratic Party does business is in need of a massive overhaul.
I think they're endeavoring to confirm your conclusions. One thing about this whole mess, it's being treated like the mess it is, but it's kind of a scandal, isn't it? Like, this hits me like one of the biggest scandals of our time, hiding the infirmity of a sitting president and lying to the American people about it and recklessly running him while he's the only person standing between democracy and autocracy. Gaslighting anyone who has concerns based on what they're seeing, telling Dean Phillips and his ilk to shut up and go away. Continuing to deny reality after the mask is off. It feels to me like a legit, major scandal.
My feeling is that if Biden and the Democrats win in the fall (President, Senate, and maybe even retake the House somehow) the issue will be seen as something of a speed bump along the way (pending future developments), albeit one from which many valuable lessons should be learned. On the other hand, if DJT wins, and especially if the Senate falls to the GOP too, plus the Republicans keep the House, I think the major scandal thing starts to kick in. Hard to say where accountability begins and ends on that, but I suspect the list of names would be long, including the name Biden.
I can only conclude that he's either incapacitated or incompetent at this point. The complete non-response to this crisis is totally damning either way.
This is what I'm starting to wonder about as this story just drags on: the longer it takes for Biden to leave, the higher the risk grows of him discrediting both the establishment and possible alternatives as he goes.
Harris is a great example of this: her job is, and has been, to be loyal to the president. And she's done that job well. So: if Biden turns out to be unfit, and she knew, then she was helping perpetuate a lie. If Biden turns out to be unfit, and she didn't know, it hits at the core of her credibility to "carry on his legacy." Or maybe it distances her from the fallout, that'd be nice....
If you are willing to torch the party over this, then you are being every bit as condescending as some of Biden's defenders.
If we are going to ignore 3 years of policy, the midterms, The State of the Union, and other much better recent speeches of his over this, it doesn't work that way with me.
Yup. Preach, Don, preach.
👆👆👆👆👆
The Heritage Foundation (and Federalist Society) already have blood on their hands from their claimed "bloodless coup"! People have already DIED at the hands of so-called Republicans, so-called conservatives, led by vicious thugs and a teflon don.
And they are NOT leading an AMERICAN Revolution. They are leading a second "Civil" War (nothing civil about either of them). AMERICA does not need nor want a "revolution" by lies and violence. But that is what The Heritage Foundation, "Republican" Party, SCOTUS and MAGA are giving us.
Nobody here is stupid.
Nobody here is crazy.
Nobody here is pro-Trump.
Nobody here hates Biden.
The fact that someone disagrees with you doesn't make them ignorant or [whatever other insults from recent threads I've forgotten to list here].
This is a genuinely difficult problem with no clear answers or safe solutions. Let's discuss it like civil adults. That's something the bad guys can only take away from us if we let them.
I think the disagreements in these daily threads are a reflection of the Bulwark community at-large. We are a loose coalition of former Republicans, current Republican Never Trumpers, and moderate Democrats plus some liberals who hang out here because they like seeing conservative hosts beat up on other conservatives. The one thing that unites the coalition is the single-minded mission of defeating Trump, but the debate performance has divided us into camps. My dilemma is I see compelling arguments from each camp, although I'm starting to see that the Joe Must Go camp has the more persuasive argument. I'm still withholding total commitment until I see how Joe performs over the next few weeks, if he stays in at all. And you're right, we should agree to disagree in a civil manner, and I'm disappointed in folks who don't. The Bulwark is not 4Chan.
To "make people un-see what they saw at Thursday night’s Waterloo" would take one thing: Biden appearing in public, mentally vigorous and in command, at multiple unscripted events. People would forget Thursday in a heartbeat.
If Biden hasn't done that by now, it's pretty clear that he can't.
Adding travel fatigue to the list of lame "it was two other guys and besides they hit me first" excuses was a breathtakingly dumb idea and just makes Biden's judgment, and character, seem more shaky.
This is how people behave who have fucked up and don't want to admit it.
I'm not advocating for Joe to stay or go. But consider the possibility that his condition is worse, maybe much worse, than we have been told. I feel more and more each day that there is a great deal that we are not aware of. The Democratic Party has a lot to answer for as this increasingly falls into a quagmire that didn't have to happen, had they handled things better from the beginning, at least two years ago. My anger with them is rising exponentially with each new sunrise and each fresh news cycle.
It’s one thing to consider it and it’s another to then proceed as if it’s fact. It leans too much into the conspiracy realm for me. Consider as well that Biden is absolutely neurologically normal for a healthy man his age - a little slower but in full possession of his cognitive ability with the added complexity of stuttering issue public speaking tools that have always been there (speaking to fast, etc.). I tend to lean that way since I’ve seen in it a lot of older people and it explains Biden’s ability to function at an extremely high level the majority of the time but have days where it’s just harder but not impossible. That is not dementia or being cognitively incapacitated, it’s normal aging.
I watched the debate because I wanted to see what BS Trump was gonna put out there but I was also not predisposed to the opinion that Biden is too old, even though he is old. It was bad but even in the beginning what some assume to be a blank look, I saw as him listening and being aghast at what he was hearing from Trump while thinking of how to respond — I don’t think he was aware of the always on split screen, which is highly unusual in a debate. He got better, and I’m one who is willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he wasn’t feeling well and hoped to make it through.
Everyone is so cynical that I have seen no one making the case for the simplest explanation being the true one. Biden was damned if he said he was ill before or during the debate and damned if he didn’t and he certainly could not call it off. To believe that he or anyone would have agreed to these debates if they thought for a moment it would happen the way it did is suspending reality itself.
As I’ve said before, considering one position in good faith requires considering the other position in good faith. I am not in a cult of Biden and whatever happens will happen, but I also am not convinced that the stand down crowd is wholly realistic. Not just strategically but practically. As in: if it’s not Kamala, how does the party get ballot access before deadlines — some of which are before the convention, and the majority of which are right after — when the candidate is not the one who won the primaries. Where does the funding come from since Biden/Harris funds are not transferable. Is there a certainty that all of the myriad election laws in 50 states can be met in such a short time frame? Especially when the GOP has a bevy of lawyers lined up to nullify a new candidate? It’s not as simple as it’s being presented. Any election law experts opining?
I will continue to make an appeal to calm and reflection and humility and grace now that the initial days have passed. People can change their mind about their initial stance but the circular firing squad with intransigence more interested in being right than considering the possibility of being wrong is getting old. We all want the same thing, so can we please stop declaring one side or the other as — fill in the derogatory term here — instead of as our allies in the fight against Trump? I will add, too, that some of the comments about Biden are downright derogatory and insulting from those wishing he would stand down and it’s really off-putting and unnecessary to make the stand down case. The Party and the nation find itself in historically unprecedented territory. There is no one right answer. We are all flying a bit blind and operating by intuition.
With utmost respect and love.
You make good points. My feeling is simply that the Democratic Party needs to be as transparent as possible about this, without weakening our influence abroad with rogue nations and even our allies. I realize that those two goals can be incompatible to an extent, but if the Dems are seen as being evasive or even untruthful, it will do their cause more harm than good in the end -- like the old saying goes, it's not the crime so much as the coverup.
I have a parent with severe dementia, and I don't see that in Joe. (But I do see signs of it in Donald.) So I'm not down on Joe so much as wary that the Dems have been trying too hard to massage the situation rather than address it appropriately over time, hoping that it would not explode in our faces. Yet here we are. A large part of why I don't advocate one way or the other what Joe should do is because I simply do not feel that I have enough reliable information to take a stand on it (and since my voice means nothing to the process). But you do ask good questions and pose ample food for thought. I hope those who in fact are in a position to make important decisions will take them into account. For my part I just keep coming back to the feeling that this is becoming the mother of all unforced errors by the Democrats in how they've handled it, and we all stand to pay the price for it in the end.
We are in agreement. Thank you for taking this in the spirit that it was intended.
Pelosi was really interesting yesterday on MSNBC. Clyburn was a bit squishy too. This is an f'ng mess with way too much foggy bottom.
The Heritage Society has started so other American Revolution by taking over the Supreme Court!! Add more judge. Stop the Heritage Foundation and the Federalist Society NOW. Start talking about these traitors NOW!
Last Friday morning, I was inclined to give Biden the benefit of the doubt that it was "just a bad night" and he would spend the next few days in public showing us that he's up to the next four years. He needs to get out there and prove it. So far, not so much.
Biden was out campaigning the night of the debate and again the next day in Raleigh, NC. Where have you been? Clearly not paying attention to what Biden is doing....
He needs to face tough interview and press conference questions. Teleprompter speeches and cheers from his supporters isn’t sufficient. He needs to show the country that his debate performance was an episode, and not a condition to echo the question Pelosi asked. Blaming a cold or exhaustion from international travel weeks before the debate is weak.
One could call it gaslighting.
Amen
People concerned about Biden's fitness have acknowledged these performances and pointed out that (1) they were scripted events, which are less challenging than having to think and talk on your feet, and (2) they were good but not great performances.
Show me a Trump event that isn't scripted and enhanced by teleprompters. And whenever the teleprompter goes down, we get some demented Gish gallop about electric boats and sharks. But for some reason, that's not of concern around these parts. Anyone who watched that rally in Raleigh and didn't see a great performance wasn't watching the same rally I was.
Of course Trump is far worse in every regard than Biden. That’s not the point. Republicans are fully on board with Trump - that’s not changing- unless Trump has a debilitating health issue. Trump is leading in most swing state polls and with the electoral college bias Biden needs to win the popular vote by 3-4%. Ask Hilary for confirmation of this fact. Biden had a horrible debate, and is now the underdog. The question is what is he going to do about it? Blaming others, or a cold, or exhaustion from travel weeks ago is not going to do the job.
I watched the rally in Raleigh. I was not impressed. I like Joe Biden, and will vote for him if he is the nominee. Constantly comparing Biden to Trump isn't solving Biden's problems. It is obvious that Trump behaves like a rabid animal. Yet, Trump’s horrific behavior does not change the appearance that Joe Biden has cognitive issues.
If Harris is Trump's opponent, Trump will be in the teleprompter spotlight. Harris as his opponent would be a total nightmare for Trump's campaign. No more hiding his own cognitive decline behind Sleepy Joe. Biden's debate performance played all too well into Trump's narrative. It's the biggest reason Biden is not recovering from Thursday night.
All right then. I wasn't watching the same rally you were.
And this isn't about fairness.
And saying "Trump is worse" is not enough. It is possible to be extremely concerned about Trump and extremely concerned about Biden's recent failures. One does not rule out the other.
The fact that there's a raging fire at one end of the house doesn't make it OK for someone to smoke in bed at the other end of the house.
Good luck with your brokered convention, then.
Maybe stick to one train of thought at a time, and if you want to switch topics, acknowledge that the topic you are introducing is in fact a new and equally difficult one.
You're skipping over too many logical steps. Whether A is true or not has nothing to do with whether B is difficult/dangerous/etc. or not.
This is a complex issue. Difficult truths need to be acknowledged, and the +/- of risky options need to be weighed. Wishing something won't make it true.
That doesn't help the narrative, so the reportING isn't amplified like the "must drop out" voices.
I’m not in the “must drop out”camp. I doubt that he will. I want Biden to do everything that he can to increase his chances at re-election. Not his family, not his staff, but the person who is asking the country to be President for another 4.5 years. Opinions differ on what he should do.
That's one of the calmest, most cogent responses to this business that I've seen. Well said!
He was reading from a teleprompter in NC!
OMG! Say it ain't so!
Yep. Biden needs to campaign every day from now until the day after the election. If he can’t do that it’s a big problem which is a huge understatement.
Nothing makes me happy to say this. People can find statements I’ve made repeatedly defending Biden.
Same here. I dismissed the gossip and speculation until June 28.
It's the horrific internal polling that changed my mind. A generic Dem did better against Trump than Biden. There are now 12 swing states in play with at least four now firmly in Trump's camp. The only way Biden beats Trump looks to be resigning and letting Kamala take on Trump. Kamala would have the big advantage of putting Trump as the sole demented old man in the race.
I will repeat a post request I made yesterday - I'd like to see a Bulwark column (JVL would be ideal) about this idea, to open up a discussion.
Biden will have a staff that will pick up the slack and do what's right. Trump has a mountain of help from a corrupt/unethical/power-hungry group of Republicans (judges, donors, elite, wealthy, big business...all who have interests that would lead to enrichment of some kind...illegal/amoral be dam*ed).
No one votes because of "staff".
Regarding Cheap Shots, we are not in a second american revolution, this is the American Revolution in reverse, where we take away a government chosen by the people and install a monarchy/dictatorship.
As bad as the post-debate mishandling by his team has been, the rush by “concerned” politicians, left-leaning media, and other “know-it-alls” to call for his withdrawal is far more damaging.
This ^^
Are we going to get reporting on your meeting with the Biden people or do I have to keep reading about it only at The Dispatch?
Biden is also meeting with governors and party leaders, etc.
I don't subscribe to their newsletters. 😉
There is a Substack you can subscribe to for free: What Did Joe Biden do Today” that is really informative. That’s where I got the info about the meetings.
Probably not because they were probably brought in as consultants and usually you have to keep those conversations private. I take it as a good sign that the administration is taking feedback from people that understand Haley voters and double haters and undecideds.
Yes, they were in the room, so they need to speak up and tell us what they think.
Say more?
https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/dispatch-politics/prominent-never-trumpers-set-to-meet-with-biden-campaign/
Second what Amanda said.
"As support for the president has begun to collapse in public, things also seem chaotic behind closed doors. Dispatch Politics reported Sunday that prominent Never-Trump Republicans—including former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele, lawyer George Conway, veteran Republican operative Mike Murphy, commentators Bill Kristol and Charlie Sykes, and strategist Sarah Longwell—met with top Biden campaign officials to urge the president to step aside."
https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/morning/the-tide-begins-to-turn-against-biden/
A bunch of Republicans think he should step aside? Yeah, they have been saying that for a long time. They all also hate Harris.
I would listen to them and say 'thanks' and then let them go whine on their podcasts.
You'd think that their face-to-face impressions of a doddering senile old man would be the lede.
It just feels like they're trying to hide something from us.
Can you imagine the Washington Post allowing the NYT to report on things the Post reporters were doing and not reporting on it themselves?
The only thing I can infer is that the meeting didn't give ammunition for the preferred narrative, so it gets memory holed.
Doesn't sound like they met with Biden. Just his campaign advisers.
Nobody meets with Biden, especially recently and in his current state. Meeting with campaign advisers is still significant.
Remember when some people tried to replace the guy that won an election with the guy that didn't and we got all mad about it?
Maybe let's not do our own version of that here. Biden won the nomination with about 87% of the vote. But I'm supposed to just rub my chin thoughtfully and be ok with a small group of pundits trying to overturn those elections in order to replace the winner with someone they're going to find other reasons to complain about?
How about we trust the Democratic voters this time?
You didn't trust them in 2018, we won.
You didn't trust them in 2020, we won.
You didn't trust them in 2022, we won.
Are you sensing a pattern? Because I am.
Disagree (regretfully & still hoping/wishing I was wrong), but you make a very good case.
❤️
I think the emotions you express are why we are not going to hear much about the way forward until a decision has been made. I think a lot of resources are going into how to have an open convention, what to do about Ohio, keep Biden for the rest of his term, what to communicate.
Yeah, we're not hearing a sliver of what's going on behind closed doors right now.