Whiplashing Between Hope and Fear

Plus: JD Vance, Thirst King.

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Jul 23, 2024

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President Joe Biden has been out of the public eye for nearly a week now after being diagnosed with COVID last Wednesday. And it’s still not clear when exactly we can expect the address to the nation he promised would come this week.

Yesterday, we at least got a bit of Biden audio. During Vice President Harris’s visit to her newly inherited campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Biden was patched in via speakerphone. “We’re still fighting this fight together,” the president’s disembodied voice promised. “I will always have your back.”

It’s a remarkable illustration of how quickly this has all moved: Biden has stepped aside, Harris has stepped forward, and Harris has locked up the delegates she needs for the Democratic nomination—all between glimpses of Biden himself. Happy Tuesday.

Who the Heck Knows?

—William Kristol

Sometimes if you’re confused, it’s because the situation is confusing.

Sometimes if you’re not sure, it’s because the situation is uncertain.

Sometimes if you veer back and forth between hope and concern, it’s because the situation is at once hopeful and concerning.

Such is life. Such is politics. And such, it seems to me, is our situation less than two days after President Biden stepped aside.

On the one hand, there’s plenty to worry about. And when you talk to political pros—intelligent ones who wish Kamala Harris well—you’re struck by the worrying side of the equation.

Vice President Harris has a daunting task. She has to put together her own presidential campaign at warp speed. She has to remain respectful of President Biden while (implicitly) separating herself from his unpopular presidency, in which she played a major role.

She has to define herself not as the incumbent vice president but as a new leader with a forward-looking message. She has to balance the salesmanship of Biden’s accomplishments with a message of change. And she will have to develop that positive message while under a massive assault of negative advertising from Republicans who will be trying to define her first.

Having been a mediocre candidate who ran a poor campaign in the Democratic primary in 2019, she will have to be an impressive candidate who puts together a very good campaign for the next 104 days.

And she will have to have an especially good next four weeks, culminating in the Democratic convention in Chicago. This will be the period when things are most plastic: Harris will reintroduce herself effectively or not, will make the race competitive or not.

If a month from now nothing fundamentally has changed from where we stood before Biden withdrew except for the name at the top of the ticket, Trump is very likely to win. If a month from now it’s clearly a new campaign, Harris has a real chance.

I’ve had many conversations over the last two days about where things stand and what may lie ahead. I’m struck that the civilians—the “regular Americans” who don’t work in and around politics—tend to see excitement and opportunity. The political insiders tend to see obstacles and challenges.

Both points of view capture aspects of reality. But I think this may be one of those times the outsiders may see things more clearly than the insiders. I hope so.

Some sophisticated conservatives have pointed out that there’s a tension between two of Kamala Harris’s favorite sayings.

Especially when speaking to young people, Harris often urges them to strive for “what can be, unburdened by what has been.” On the other hand, there’s the now famous counsel Harris ascribes to her mom: “I don’t know what’s wrong with you young people. You think you just fell out of a coconut tree? You exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you.”

But this tension between being unburdened by the past and existing in its context is present in every reasonable person’s life. And as the American Enterprise Institute’s Stan Veuger points out, “shaped but not burdened by” shouldn’t be too complex a notion for some to grasp.

In fact, coming to grips with the challenging context they are in fact operating in, but not being unnecessarily burdened by what has been—that actually seems like a winning stance for the Harris campaign.

So, while of course I’m worried, I’m also encouraged. And above all, I’m uncertain.

I mean, as Yogi Berra said: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Are you feeling excited for what can be, or are you still burdened by what has been? Where are the vibes, Kamala-wise? Let us know in the comments:

J.D. Vance, Thirst King

—Andrew Egger

For Donald Trump, having a vice president like Mike Pence had its downsides. There was the squeaky-clean prudishness. The sneaking suspicion Pence might secretly see him as dishonorable. That whole election-certification episode.

But to Trump’s eye, there was one big thing that Pence did great: He never, ever forgot his place as junior partner and full-time hype man. For five years, Pence played his role unswervingly: Sing Trump’s praises, then fade into the background.

JD Vance, a man who wrote a memoir in his 20s, hasn’t had a lot of practice fading into the background. And after a few days of watching him stretching out as Trump’s running mate, it’s not even clear he plans to try.

Back in 2016, Pence wrapped up his vice-presidential acceptance speech with an extended paean to Trump’s virtues: confronting terrorists, supporting law enforcement, cutting taxes, building strong borders, upending the D.C. status quo. “That man is ready, this team is ready, our party is ready,” Pence finished. “When we elect Donald Trump the 45th president of the United States, together we will make America great again!”

Last week, Vance didn’t end his RNC speech talking about Trump. He ended it talking about Vance:

I promise you this—I will be a vice president who never forgets where he came from. And every single day for the next four years, when I walk into that White House to help President Trump, I will be doing it for you. For your family, for your future, and for this great country.

Vance’s tendency to keep the spotlight on himself was on display yesterday as well, when he headed to his hometown of Middletown, Ohio to headline his first rally on the Trump ticket. He talked about the importance of door-knocking to reach “people who are gonna vote for President Trump and Vice President Vance.” He implored his listeners to “go on social media and actually make the case for President Trump and Vice President Vance.”

The most remarkable moment wasn’t even scripted. It came while Vance was delivering a piece of pure boilerplate: “Over the next four years, we are going to do a lot of good for people all over this country—”

An audience member interrupted: “Twelve years!”

The implication was obvious. And incredibly, Vance stopped to dwell on it: “Well, sir—let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Knock on wood. We’ve got to win this race first.”

Mike Pence would never.

Every vice presidential nominee wants to be president, of course—the hope that veep will be a stepping stone to the higher job is pretty much all that gets anyone to take the lower one. Still, ordinary etiquette stipulates the veep nominee keep that lust to himself until the next nominating period rolls around.

One wonders how Trump feels about all this. It’s possible, I suppose, that his near-death experience last week has changed his outlook on life to such an extent that he now welcomes a running mate who’s already so openly envisioning himself as the GOP’s post-Trump vessel.

But maybe it’s likelier that all this is an aggravation to the big guy. If so, we’ll see if Vance can manage to correct course in the days ahead.

Catching up . . .

Harris secures backing of majority of DNC delegates: Wall Street Journal
Secret Service director infuriates lawmakers with vague answers on Trump shooting: Politico
Kamala Harris won’t preside over Netanyahu’s speech to Congress as he looks to shore up U.S. support: NBC News
Democrats relish Harris vs. Trump contrast: Axios
Trump’s new rival may bring out his harshest instincts: New York Times

Quick Hits: One Healthy Party

Up at the site today, Mona Charen rolls her eyes at the burgeoning right-wing narrative that Democrats carried out a “coup” against President Biden:

There is indeed a candidate in this race who attempted to stage a coup, and we know who that is. Trump submitted his false electoral votes, pressured his vice president, and sent his goons to Capitol Hill because he would not accept the verdict of the voters . . . So please sit down and shut up with your coup talk.
The response of the GOP to a real attempted coup? After some initial condemnations, nearly the entire party fell into line denying that January 6th had been anything to get excited about and endorsing the coup-plotter for re-election. There were no calls for him to drop out of the race . . .
What we witnessed over the past several weeks was a political party, the Democratic party, acting like a healthy institution and not like a mob-inflected cult. Democrats ushered Joe Biden into the nomination in 2020, and they ushered him out in 2024 for good and sufficient reason. Yes, it was painful for Biden, but with the stakes being so high, Democrats found that sentimentality was something neither they nor the country could afford.

Read the whole thing.