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there has been much discussion on this topic of Joe Biden’s replacement. I believe this is a new idea and hope that, it has merit, it will be picked up by those who have influence.

Biden doesn’t run but chooses Harris to run in his place.

Harris selects her VP , whoever is most likely to help her win and beat trump. No thought to be given for 2028. It might be someone who is not a politician

Key is this: She and her vp state they will not run for re-election in 2028.

The dems have an open field, as they should, for 2028. This will bring support from all future candidates, without them shooting at each other now

And joe will get credit for making it possible for first woman President

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Current Plan:

1) I will vote for the candidate in Nov that has the greatest likelihood of beating tfg. If a) Biden doesn't step down, and b) Biden remains healthy, that is most likely to be Biden.

2) If tfg is disqualified or steps down, I would hope, and would ask that, Biden steps down and would encourage it. In Liz vs. Joe (VERY unlikely, but to make a point), I'd place my first republican vote in the interest of re-establishing national security asap. In Liz vs. any young(er) sharp democrat I'd vote democrat.

Plan C:

3) I will vote for any ticket, arrived at by any means (primary, open convention, DNC, via Biden fiat - new VP/step down, release of delegates etc.), that substantially reduces the current risk of tfg's re-election. This includes:

a) a ticket WITHOUT Kamala - I think this is LIKELY to be stronger, depending on how it happens, and who it is. Specifically, her loyal hard work should be rewarded with a post (AG?) and a role that will may be more likely to last beyond 11/24. She would be a hero. Alternative? (I think I'd bow to those pros crunching the numbers for electability. Perhaps that's you, but maybe not.).

b) a ticket without Biden CAN be stronger, assuming it is done with his blessing and depending on who it is. I think smart and connected people, like Jill, should be working on his blessing for this. Others need to be grooming 2 dems.

I think it is rational to put something like these improvements in place ASAP, instead of running the real risk of having to scramble to someone 'new' a month prior to the election.

Addendum/Edit: the likelihood that tfg will not be the R's candidate is increasing (still <50-50). Biden DEFINITELY needs to commit internally to stepping down IF Trump is off the R ticket, and to have a Plan C in place ASAP.

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Thanks for this link, Jim, I think Damon expressed my views about as well as anyone. Frankly, as an old doc, I felt Biden was too old in 2020, but he's pulled off the first 3 years pretty well, except that he was too slow/weak with Putin in Ukraine (my view - think TOO much concern was given to nukes, or other bully and saber-rattling), and definitely has been too slow to put Netanyahu under a bus. But up until Oct 2023, did mostly well, and well on the balance, again in my view (and MANY others', I'm increasingly seeing!).

I also do agree this buck stops primarily with Joe still; less, but significantly with Jill; less still, but still significantly with Joe's advisors and friends. But I am increasingly certain past few days that they WILL respond to this changing public sentiment, and likely already have in private. I increasingly think that there IS a Plan C. But I think there's some creative head scratching needed to ID & prep the best few candidates for the convention.

Do not agree with his short list, focused on governors. Dean Philips is better than several of them as a person (though with less executive experience; some have said this handicapped Obama, but I personally think it was deep R racism on top of deep R partisanship), - though I'm just getting to know Dean. Love Pete's communication strength, but understand his middle right appeal be capped, despite his wonderfully nuanced and intelligent Christian understanding (I'm an atheist, but preacher's kid, and respect people trying to understand Jesus's essential contributions to society). Think a woman would be great, and might be best, but I don't know Gretchen well enough yet to know if she could carry the day. Amy was not a good enough speaker. Warren is past BBD, and has too much history that frightens business (but I really like & respect her!). Heck, I'd consider Liz on a bipartisan ticket as VP, but it would take a very strong P.

We all can understand the importance of preparing the ground and the options and contingencies prior to a difficult communication that one wants to be be a) correctly understood, and b) to have a beneficent impact. Hope this task is near the front of Biden's plate... I think it may be.

Thanks again for the link.

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Thanks, Mark, for your detailed and well thought through response. The more I listen to pundits, the more I am thinking it might not happen - that Biden steps down. So…. here is a Plan C. Biden states his objectives for a second term and names (or gives strong clues as to) his cabinet. He IMPORTANTLY challenges Trump to do the same, knowing that Trump is collecting the worst group of far right sycophants, and knowing that Trump has no agenda other than retribution. The unspoken message is that he is a leader, not necessarily a sole decider, and that he willl surround himself with those capable of researching and proposing the best for the country. Just a thought

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Thanks Jim -

Pundits are news-cycle short-win gamblers, I'm more of a long term statistician.

At some point Biden WILL have a health event (or will be perceived to have had, as will we all, but likely him sooner than later, IF we haven't already reached this point) and instantly all the pundits you can hear will be saying I told you so.

Chances are quite high this disability event, real OR (mis)perceived, will happen truly OR as a disinformation October surprise. I'd almost say this is certain.

BEFORE that time, smart & responsible people will have, and need to have, a plan C, AND some or many of us need to have done the groundwork to effect it.

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Keep listening... there's a pendulum, as people first knee-jerk, then realize.

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here is the followup to Ezra Klein’s option piece on Biden stepping down. also worth reading is George Will’s article in WAPO about Roosevelt’s choosing Truman “just in time” https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/opinion/open-conventions-gaza-biden.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb

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Yes, I don't think the Biden team has digested the political cost of supporting Israel much too long for most young voters.

AND I agree that a tell is that Dems are not making the case that the Biden-Harris ticket is strong and will win. The long slow decline in Biden support is NOT coming back ever, not just because he's never getting younger.

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Thanks, Jim.

(Worked into the wee hours on my fixer upper - will read this later Sunday.)

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Mark, i think your idea of Harris being nominated for AG has merit. It would solve a few problems, indeed.

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Federal Judgeships are generally life appointments, might be more attractive if possible.

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At one time I could recite Invictus unprompted. It hasn't crossed my mind in years. Thank you for reminding me. It puts steel in my spine.

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I address the opening part of the article about Biden not running for a second term. With letters to podcasters and to The Bulwark, I have been asking everyone to pick apart this suggestion below. I hope this posting gets some traction and constructive criticism. (For background, I think Biden has done a very good job given the extreme partisanship in congress, BUT i think the country needs the strongest possible ticket against Trump.) Please tell me where this option is faulty.

My Plan B

Friends of the Bidens, including mega donors, work with Dr Jill Biden to convince her husband to step down NOW, thus avoiding his being remembered as another RBG. Kamala takes the office for some months But with the understanding and promise that she won’t run for the office in November. This allows 1/ Biden to burnish his legacy by being responsible for the first female President (who, as well, happens to be of color) and 2/ Kamala to save herself from being partly responsible for a humiliating defeat while at the same time going down in history with the aforementioned “first”. We get a Democratic candidate who can beat Trump.(And I do believe there are candidates and “tickets” which could beat Trump, maybe even a split Dem/Repub ticket. There are other benefits which may accrue such as Biden’s son being out of the limelight and maybe even a ceasefire in the investigation into Biden’s secret documents debacle. I am anxious to read comments on this thread and hopefully hear it debated on the podcasts and in the news. Thank you

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Might be safer / more stable if Biden doesn’t step down for, say, last 4 months. Might appear too disruptive, ‘clever’ and non-democratic for such a serious post. Better Biden to serve out the term (IF able), but with a new D ticket identified by an open convention. Kamala could depart earlier if a good post is found, (and Biden could select the new candidate as his VP last few months, perhaps).

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Love the article but also I must say; the Bulwark art is consistently fantastic and really stands out.

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Tucker failed to take Putin to task.

American journalists in Russia have been imprisoned for less. Guess Tucker was not all that keen to thrown into his idol's slammer.

You know, in Siberia.

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The only masters of our fate example that did not make much sense is "Suggest privately to Biden that he not run for reelection. Someone very likely did that and we wouldn't know because it was done privately. On the other hand, few parties would care to relinquish an incumbent as accomplished as Biden. Like the Bulwark has said, Biden is old and well-meaning and highly experienced; Trump is old and corrupt and knows nothing.

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The dumbest animals lead their pack to slaughter like the Judas goat.

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Goats are smarter than sheep, but easily led.

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Sign a discharge petition to get a bill to the floor of the House to help Ukrainians fighting and dying for their country? “The Speaker says he doesn’t want to bring it to the floor, and I’m just a member of Congress. I can’t take on the Speaker. A discharge petition? I’m afraid that’s pretty far out there.”

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"Sign a discharge petition to get a bill to the floor of the House to help Ukrainians fighting and dying for their country? “[The Fulvous Flatulence] says he doesn’t want it [brought] to the floor, and I’m just a member of Congress. I can’t take on [The Mango Malignancy]. A discharge petition? I’m afraid that’s pretty far out there.” (FIFY)

fnord

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Bill is so right about the fatalist temptation of “No can do"; “It is what it is.” The first lesson in Timothy Snyder's book "On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons From the Twentieth Century" is "Do not obey in advance."

"Most of the power of authoritarianism is freely given. In times like these, individuals think ahead about what a more repressive government will want, and then offer themselves without being asked. A citizen who adapts in this way is teaching power what it can do."

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Thanks for sharing "Invictus," Bill. I'd never read it. I love it. The only mastery I've ever seen in any human being is when they are capable of mastering the truth about themselves. That's rare. We spend most of our time telling stories in service of our egos and identities. That's why courage and honor is hard to find, and why human history spins in circles. Perhaps this bulldozer we’re all taking to reason and civility has, in a strange way, some benefit. At least it forces us to confront we’ve pretty much made zero progress evolving our nature over the last 200,000 years. The stories and tribes and rules were supposed to make us or things “better,” but they only bought more time for our illusions. So now what? Be the captain of your honor and compassion, if you can, because the rest is just story time.

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The DNC better wake up from their coma soon. Neither Congress nor the Senate will matter if Trump is elected. Trump left out part of his sentence… Dictator for a day…the full sentence was “ Dictator for life and a day.”

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Since staffing is in the air, I was just thinking that since Lara can be co-chair of the RNC, perhaps the DNC might want to sign Hunter on to be DNC co-chair. I mean, can you imagine the fireworks?

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I think for vice president, you left out “General (psycho) Flynn. He is ex military, traitorous, and has strong ties to Russia. It would be a natural to help Trump sell this country and its power to Russia so Trump could get that hotel built in Moscow and put billions of Rubles in his own pockets .

I’m sure Tucker Carlson , could be the night manager for the hotel.

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I don't think Trump would pick Flynn as VP, but I do think he would make him Secretary of Defense, which IMO is a LOT worse.

I think Trump is going to go for arm candy like Kristi Noem or Kari Lake.

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Today’s America is like a possible movie titled “Revenge of the Pervs”. Clowns, the stupid, the cruel, the coward, and the mentally ill have decided that they have had enough of progress leaving them behind, they want everyone else life as miserable as theirs.

Unfortunately this is becoming a world wide phenomenon as the worst of our society have bubbled to the top. They are led by a cruel babysitter, Trump.

Trump said it out loud, “What’s in it for me”, “they are suckers.”

How to sane rational people vote in so many mentally ill people to Congress? Why does the press give them a microphone to amplify their illness?

In my opinion it’s simply a lack of accountability and a failure to say to their face how stupid and anti democracy they really are. We have to do better as a nation.

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I think Nikki Haley's hub said it the very best. "The difference between animals and humans is that animas don't let the dumbest(or choose your own descriptor) lead the pack."

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You heard it here first. The RNC is going to help fund RFK's campaign and help him with ballot access in the states.

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I don't think so....only because his supporters are comprised of many extreme GOP voters who like his fringe stances on various topics...mostly GOP oriented ones.

FoxNews dropped him like a hot rock when they figured this out. In fact...the next time he was on FoxNews...they attacked him.

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How, exactly, will that work with Trump's daugher-in-law/Eric's wife in charge at the RNC? That's what Trump is angling for, and therefore what is likely to happen. Even if it's not her, it will be a Trump lackey.

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The Trump backed RNC will help help fund RFK's campaign because RFK's presence on the ballot is a huge boost Trump winning the Presidency, draining votes from Biden. In a three way race, Biden loses a lot more of those swing states.

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No, RFK would pull more votes from Trump, which is why the RNC won't give him a dime.

He's anti-vax, embraces conspiracy theories like 9/11 was an inside job, likes to hang with the wrong people, and is spending money like a drunken sailor.

There are very few Dems out there that aren't laughing at him. Why do you think he dropped out of the Democratic primary and chose to run as an independent?

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Disagree. RFK does not hold much appeal for Dems/Dem leaning voters. He's much more likely to siphon votes from Trump with disaffected Repubs who can't bring themselves to vote for Biden. Let's face it, the guy's a nut case, and with Trump, we already have one of those.

A greater risk is Cornell West, who could conceivably draw a significant number of Black voters who traditionally vote Dem. I see that as a bigger threat.

And then, of course, there's No Labels - if it even mounts a campaign - and if they draw in a viable candidate such as Joe Manchin. Those are big ifs, and so far nothing is happening, and I suspect nothing will. Time is running short to mount a campaign. And again, it's much more likely to attract disaffected Repubs. However, equally disaffected center-right Dems might also find it attractive, though I'm highly skeptical.

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“Do I even need a vice president?” Trump recently asked.

Since no one can replace the Emperor God King, the clear answer is "no." Jesus did not have a Vice Messiah.

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trump has already said he sees no need for a Constitution.

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