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The Christian Science Monitor in their June 28 editorial gave the country a much needed invitation to take a break, take a breath, and let go of the panic in reflecting on what should happen next with the Democrats:

https://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2024/0628/President-Biden-s-essential-purpose

I wish that we were seeing a little more of this kind of thinking at the Bulwark. Maybe we will in the coming week.

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Johnson? He was primaried and going to lose. That’s not the same at all. Biden has the nomination. If he gives it up it’ll be fully him choosing to do so

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I'm reluctantly coming to the conclusion that President Biden should step aside and become an eminence grise, providing his successor with access to his knowledge and experience. I would hate to see him pushed aside at the convention, because he doesn't deserve the humiliation. He should step down now and anoint Kamala or someone else to carry the fight through November. Otherwise he risks going down in the books as the man whose ego helped put a criminal psychopath in the White House.

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Goodness the weekends on The Bulwark are boring; reduced to reading the comments i grew tired of reading when posted. Especially the ones that have been stated, restated and then restated again and again and again. But hey, maybe that's just me.

Any way, as i slog through all of the upsides and downsides of hanging on to Joe, i have a question that i would love to hear your answer to. It won't be easy, because it means casting aside our love for Joe and being brutally honest. It makes no matter how you respond other than to make you think beyond staying or going?

Without the pandemic/covid19, would Joe have beaten the donald?

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Joe won the popular vote by 7 million votes. The Electoral College is a crap-shoot, which is why we have Republican Presidents.

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I'm not sure. You can't prove or disprove a counter factual. I'd like to think that Joe would still have won. Perhaps Joe would not have won the primary. I do have a theory that Covid handed Trump re-election if only he had kept his mouth shut. And if Mitch McConnel wanted Trump to be re-elected all he had to do was support the heroes bill. Trump could have handed out even more money, he could have made Fauci and Birx praise him before letting them do their job. The press would have jumped hand over fist to praise how "presidential" Trump had become. And democrats could not dare criticize a President that was trying to save lives. Joe does not get the credit he deserves for defeating an incumbent during a national crises. And Trump blew it. He knows that, which is why his ego cannot allow him to accept reality and continues lying that he won 2020.

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Jul 7·edited Jul 7

If you think about it, he can’t really say in the first week and a half after that shocking debate performance anything other than “I’m in it to win it.” He can’t say he’s reflecting on whether he should stay, or that he’s immediately giving up; he holds the most consequential and powerful position in the world. Regardless of what he ends up doing it’s totally understandable that he’s acting exactly this way right now. (I get it makes the media impatient for a narrative though) I won't be convinced he’s arrogant or unrealistic about his chances until I see what he’s doing closer to the end of July. This demand for him to publicly reflect the reaction to a bad debate performance is just unrealistic and unhelpful, frankly. Either he will choreograph a dignified and measured exit at the appropriate time and place or he won’t. I wouldn’t judge him by how he’s behaving for the cameras right now though.

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I am 57 years old and a lifelong member of the Democratic Party, a party filled with decent people who want government to run efficiently and do good things. I trust President Joe Biden, the most effective, impressive Democratic president of my lifetime, to do the right thing by his country & his party. He is an honorable man who has devoted his entire adult life to America. How fortunate we are to have him as POTUS in this moment.

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No doubt Biden's done well. But his debate face-plant and failure to fix it after the fact have completely undermined my faith in him. Old politicians seem to have little self-awareness about their failing powers. Somebody needs to push him to do the right thing and resign.

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Just became a paying subscriber. I'm a life-long Democrat, and a realist. But these days I like Steve Schmidt, Charlie Sykes, and Adam Kinzinger because they grasp how dangerous Trump is. Many Democrats apparently don't, they're in denial that Biden's odds of beating Trump, after the debate, when from slim to below zero.

I’m terrified of Trump. If you agree, here are 3 action steps we can all take:

1) Call your Governors, Congress people, and Majority leader Schumer to urge them to pressure Biden to step aside. Since the debate, many officials and big donors can see that Biden would lose to Trump and are bravely calling for Biden to drop out; many more just need to gather their courage. If Biden doesn’t drop out he’ll be forced to step aside, which would humiliate him and harm his legacy. That’s the sad result of a popular figure being surrounded by yes-men and enablers for years. Staffers didn’t want to be fired, and of course family would be loyal. It is bizarre and worrisome that so many Democrats can’t make the distinction between Biden’s accomplishments over the years - and whether he is electable now, given his painfully evident mental decline. This is an emergency: We need a viable candidate who can beat Trump. Kamala would be easiest, but there are several Democratic governors who could likely win.

2) Remember all the other elections! If voters are too depressed about their Presidential choices, they may not bother to vote at all, which would hurt downballot candidates. In case Trump is re-elected, having Democrats in various "lower" offices may help limit the damage. Contact your friends all around the country to urge them to vote for Democrats for Congress (both Federal and state), Governor, and don’t forget that some judges are elected. If you’re out of state, you can still donate to their campaigns and notify everyone you know. https://app.oath.vote/ is a site that suggests which elections are critical and where donations can be more effective.

3) Donate and support Andra Watkins "Project 2025" sub-stack. Watkins has read the whole 900 page document and spends countless hours each month explaining the Christo-Fascist plan it reveals. She works 40-50 hours a week at this and deserves our financial support - particularly, given that if Trump wins, her life is at risk. https://project2025istheocracy.substack.com/p/how-you-can-tell-everyone-you-know

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Thank you so much for posting this!

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Thanks for your acknowledgement. A few weeks ago, when I became commenter 8,234 on yet another shocking Washington Post article about the Alitos, it dawned on me that if folks who spend hours expressing frustration and fear online, would TAKE ACTION, maybe there'd be hope for our country. Since then, I've reclaimed the hours I used to spend ranting and am focused on identifying action steps and posting all over Substack and WaPo. When someone like you replies, it means a lot to me. I'm getting enough replies from people who say they'll take action too that I think I'm making a difference. My new motto: "No ranting without action!"”

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Morning Consult Bloomberg

Michigan Biden 48% Trump 43%

Wisconsin Biden 47% Trump 44%

Pennsylvania Trump 51% Biden 44%

Georgia Trump 47% Biden 46%

Just one poll but maybe not all is lost.

Joe can make up ground in PA.

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From the Morning Consult poll:

“In the aggregate, Biden continues to underperform Trump among each candidate’s respective 2020 voters and their own party bases, while the two presumptive nominees are splitting independent voters almost evenly.

Within the individual states, Biden leads former President Donald Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, cementing several months of slightly improved performance, but has no advantage in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

That said, among all swing-state voters, 55% said Biden should not continue his campaign, including 29% of Democrats and 58% of independents, and voters increasingly view each candidate’s vice presidential selection as important.

While race dynamics remain relatively stable, the data suggests the public would be amenable to a different Democrat atop the ticket, should Biden ultimately decide to end his campaign.”

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Thanks

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If Joe steps down. No matter who the party picks will lose. No one has stepped up as a replacement. Too late. I'm sticking with my president, Biden.

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The replacement is Vice President Kamala Harris

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The Bulwark has a tremendous amount of value but I don't think it should be anyone's one-stop shop for getting all their news and analysis. That doesn't seem to be its purpose,{*} and even if it was we probably shouldn't buy into it since we're responsible for arranging our own well-balanced information diet.

There are resources like Ground News (https://ground.news/) that claim to help you "see every side of every news story / read the news from multiple perspectives / see through media bias with reliable news." (I just know that they exist; I don't know anything about their quality.) Sites like that could help up to a point but I think we're still responsible for doing our own digging and weighing.

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{*} https://www.thebulwark.com/about

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The Bulwark is failing to give us all sides of the question, making them hardly different from any partisan site online.

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Personally, I appreciate that The Bulwark isn't treating us like the GOP with feel good stories, bland platitudes, and outright gaslighting. This is a crisis that requires critical thinking and clear eyed analysis, not more gaslighting. 80,000,000 people watched that debate and it was a disaster, way more than a "cold" and being tired. It's obvious that all the Bulwark members will ultimately support whomever is opposing Trump on the ballot, and they (like me) will work to ensure that Trump is clearly and overtly defeated. It's equally obvious that Biden is becoming increasingly less likely to ensure that happens. Biden was losing before the debate and is getting further and further behind since.

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"The much-anticipated debate on Thursday night between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump drew an estimated 51.27 million viewers to the CNN presentation, Nielsen and CNN reported on Friday."

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Including online viewing, the estimate is 80M, more if you include all the snipets being spread on social media.

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I am not asking for feel good stories. I am asking for a complete presentation of all the arguments, and reasoned counter arguments if they disagree. The Bulwark is not even addressing arguments contrary to their pre-determined position.

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Have you listened to / read JVL for the past 6 months? You're not seeing "both sides" because the people who were 100% on team Biden were forced to change their position after the debate. There is nothing pre-determined about the positions of Bulwark contributors. And they're almost never a unified group, so there is no "Bulwark position" other than defeating Trump being the single biggest priority.

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They were not forced to change their position any more than any of the rest of us are forced to change our positions. Did you look at their front page today? It is quite the unified front, almost as if they a had meeting about it. AND they have only one argument, that Biden might not finish his second term. They were making that argument well before the second debate, and I said then as I say now, that's what VPs are for.

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I think you're cherrypicking.

Sarah, JVL and Tim have been focused almost exclusively on winning in November, perhaps to the detriment of thinking through Biden's ability to finish a second term. There are other Bulwark contributors who've been more focused on how a second Biden term would play out (Kristol). But the contention that "...they have only one argument..." is demonstrably wrong.

If that's what VPs are for, then why not run the VP? Lose the liabilities that Biden just magnified. Trade them for some upside on a new VP pick, possibly from one of the states the Dems need to win.

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Cherry picking-just yesterday there were four article calling for Biden to step down. It has been nearly two weeks since the debate, and they have not even once addressed the reasons for keeping Biden. They pretend Lichtman and his 10* for 10 track record does not exist.

They have only ONE argument. They have decided that Biden may not be able to serve out his second term so he should preemptively be replaced. That's it. However that is true pf any president. That is why we have a VP.

There are no cherries to pick.

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The Michael Steele pod with Rick Wilson gave the other side of the argument. Maybe it isn't much, but it's not nothing. I think Steele is going to consistently come down on the side of sticking with Biden,

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Jul 6·edited Jul 6

I wasn't aware Michael Steele was associated with the Bulwark, but then look, this podcast is his first outing with the Bulwark. The Bulwark should put the other side in print and available for comment in the Bulwark (not Youtube).

PS: The podcast 41 minutes and full of obscenities.

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Yeah his first episode under The Bulwark umbrella just dropped I think yesterday. As with all the pods, there is a space for comments, but yeah, nothing in the print only medium.

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founding

The basic equation of this election still holds:

the more its about Biden, the more likely Trump wins.

the more its about Trump, the more likely Biden wins.

Since the debate, it's all been about Biden. Smartly, Trump's handlers have convinced him to shut up so that continues. The interview last night didn't change the likelihood the campaign will focus on Biden. The entire interview was about Biden's condition. Neither the content nor the delivery of Biden's answers suggested he is capable of changing the conversation. Unless that happens, he's going down.

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I wish people would understand that the more the media focuses on Biden and gives Trump a pass because Trump is just being Trump, the more likely they help achieve MAGA's agenda to remake America into a right wing authoritarian state.

We also now understand that muting the mikes had an unintended consequence. Maybe we couldn't hear Trump, but he was standing next to Biden shouting at him the whole time while he was trying to give his answers. Did the cameras show that? The camera always showed Biden quietly letting Trump spew, sending only the nonverbal signal of dropping his jaw when Trump uttered yet another jaw-dropping whopper. And how did the media report that? As Biden standing there with his mouth agape. In future debates, perhaps leave the mikes on so we can see Trump's behavior.

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founding

I’m not sure I buy the Trump yelling at him story. The split screen showed Trump making faces but not yelling. Biden should just quit trotting out new excuses. If he stays in, the Dems best hope is that the media gets tired of the story and moves on to something else. But if the Dems keep fighting amongst themselves, that will prolong the story. The media likes covering conflict. But they also like keeping the race close.

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Did you even pay attention to the interview? Biden was not making an excuse. He said Trump's shouting distracted him but it was on him to deal with it.

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Yeah, it was still an excuse, even if it was prefaced with "I take full responsibility." If he /really/ took full responsibility, he'd stop trotting out one excuse after another, days after the event. This is the sort of stuff you tell your wife or your therapist, not the stuff you go public with.

And stop assuming that people who disagree with you "didn't pay attention." They interpreted it differently from you. That's normal and healthy. No one person here has a lock on the truth.

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You have posted another damned if he does and damned if he doesn't comment. People damn him if he provided no explanation, reserving it for his wife or therapist as you advise, and damn him if he provides an explanation denigrating anything he says as an excuse.

As far as no person having a lock on the truth, that goes for the Bulwark as well. Instead they provide no content except to promote the conclusion they have already decided upon while ignoring all other arguments such as those from Seth Abramson, Professor Lichtman, David Frum, the Philadelphia Inquirer and many others. They should at least provide a reasoned counter-argument, and this they have failed to do.

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Agreed, the bashing is ready no matter what Biden does, with some people. Explaining is not excusing the missteps.

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founding

I watched every minute of it. Do you believe everything Biden says? I don’t. He said in the interview only a small minority of Dems want him to step aside. Untrue.

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How do you know the percentage?

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founding

Polls show between 30-45% of Dems think he should step out.

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Meanwhile as we all obsess over Biden we are paying no attention at all to the fact that Republicans are headed to take over the Senate and the gerrymandered House will probably have a slim Republican majority. So with the current Republican controlled SCOTUS does it really matter if Trump is in the White House or governing through Congress from Maralago?

Any Democrat in the White House will be a caged bird.

Perhaps it's too late to save democracy that ship sailed when Mitch McConnell prevented Obama from appointing a Justice to the SCOTUS. What also maddens me is that so many who are so upset about Trump today who were members in good standing with Conservative, Inc. then, thought McConnell was sensible, savvy and even principled in this maneuver. That Gingrich was right in his scorched earth policies toward Democrats in the 90s. That Sarah Palin was an acceptable vessel of the conservative movement. That the populist wildfires of the TEAParty were just a passing, and amusing, hiccup in democracy but nothing to fight against or take seriously.

With such records of perceptivity how could they be wrong about this?

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I did not watch the George-Joe interview. I told my husband that it didn't matter. I have no power to change the situation. I will just have to wait and see who is running after the convention. Till then, I need to check out. I don't want to develop an ulcer.

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Remember Mitch McConnell's "freezes" while talking? and yet he's still in the Senate.

But apparently the powers that be have decided against Pres. Biden and what anyone else wants just ... .doesn't .... matter. I just hope they put Kamala Harris up as the candidate.

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