You people are getting as bad as the mainstream press. Biden had a cognitive test four months ago. Why do you keep reporting like this which seems to me to be bad faith. I agree Joe’s not what he used to be but he’s in the best position to fight Trump. What kind of a mess will it be if he steps aside. A circular firing squad.
His age has been a concern for years, he’s polling badly, and he’s not getting younger. He also seems incapable of aggressively prosecuting the case against Trump outside of scripted speeches. Biden has been a great POTUS. I believe it’s time for him to hand the keys over to the next generation.
As Sarah Longwell mentioned, it sets the Dems up as the responsible, youthful party against a raging old lunatic.
All these people who are calling for Biden to step down should read Timothy Snyder's Substack about how this plays into the acceptance of fascist government. It shows that Trump's behavior has been seen as acceptable because he has taken control of the Republican Party. He is much less qualified to be president than a diminished Biden. A convicted felon, a sexual predator, a fraud, a liar, and the only former president who refused to accept the results of the election. He also is still threatening violence if he loses, and even if he wins. But this is all acceptable to the press? Also, no one answers how the Dems could suddenly unite behind a new candidate. This is worse than Hillary's emails. Get over it. Biden is willing to give his life to the country. Trump is willing to throw the country away for his own personal gain. Your choice.
No one answers how a sufficient Dems-plus coalition could suddenly unite behind the *current* candidate, except by magical thinking. Just believe harder! Cancel the doubters!
A critique of Biden's ability to defeat Trump is not an endorsement of Trump.
Many voted for Biden in 2020, despite preferring others, because at the time he seemed the best shot. Not all of these people were Democrats.
In fact, with only registered-Democrat support, Biden would have lost the general election. He ended up receiving 52% of unaffiliated/other-registered voters, and 5% of registered Republicans.
We here may recognize that governance is a team project, and that even a comatose Biden would have a far better team on the job; we will vote for Biden if he's on the ballot. But presidential elections are won and lost mainly on how the less-engaged, squishy middle of the electorate perceives the individuals.
The anti-Trump ex-Republicans want the Dems to nominate a friendly, approachable. Center-right conservative. They would feel great about supporting such a person, and from their silo they think all the Dems would follow. But Biden is in the Democratic Party. They Dems like him and they trust he will put the right people in place.
I would agree with you if it was just about governing and not winning. The polls are bad and more importantly are getting worse.
Life isn’t fair. Joe Biden saved us by beating Trump and never got to enjoy his victory because of Trump’s election lies. But you can’t undo the damage that has happened the last two weeks. I hate to see him step aside it will be painful to digest but it needs to happen.
The polls weren't against him they were massively for him. General election is the only thing that matters not primary voters. Biden was up by almost double digits in Wisconsin and won by less than a point. Similar margins in other swing states. Trump massively outperformed his polls in 2020 so it is terrifying to think of Biden being down significantly going into November. I love what Joe Biden has done but he is compromised. It happens it's terrible but you can't fix it anymore and it's on him to at least give the party a fighting chance.
There is no mainstream outlet saying Trump is fine. Plenty of people have explained how Harris takes over the campaign. She just needs a VP. Otherwise the entire apparatus keeps churning.
See Ezra Klein's "Is Kamala Harris Underrated?" (https://youtu.be/KyvaxlKuOuE?si=PZl6TSJkTbq0Tk2d). I was persuaded that if she were allowed to be the law and order Dem that she is, she can be a strong candidate.
Idk. Maybe the media might have televised some of the speeches he's made since the debate. He's currently hosting NATO event at the WH. Maybe reporters could discuss that. How much do you want to bet they won't?
I disagree. See Ezra Klein's "Is Kamala Harris Underrated?" (https://youtu.be/KyvaxlKuOuE?si=PZl6TSJkTbq0Tk2d). I was persuaded that if she were allowed to be the law and order Dem that she is, she can be a strong candidate.
Blah ,blah, blah. We all know what Trump is. We now know the true condition of Biden. The DNC needs to make the only decision that is rational. Stop telling us everything is okay. It is not. Biden will not beat Trump. Maybe his replacement won't either, but Biden is a sure loser.
I'd say we don't really know Biden's true condition because except for the debate, he is still keeping a killer schedule, getting out and speaking (D-Day speech particularly good) and people who have spent time with him say he's fine. I think folks like Bill Krystol here have axes to grind and I say stuff it Bill. And Tim too.
I will vote for Biden. I have spoken to two Dems who have said they won't go to the polls if Biden runs. Independently, they said something to the effect of the DNC is incompetent; they don't care about the voters. So, you can yell at the posters here all you want, but you will just have to accept that Biden has turned off a whole slew of voters who won't show up. How is that going to beat Trump?
Changing the subject to Trump and his problems doesn't solve Biden's problems which are worsening all the time.
We the readership think replacing him may be difficult. But it's not OUR job to figure that out. Plenty of experienced politicians and campaign strategists are working all the details out.
It doesn't matter WHO his team is. People don't vote for a team.
I do not need to give proof Biden is worsening all the time. You seen to be living in a cocoon. Look at video of him over the last 10 years. Look at how he walks, the lack of expression in his face, the way he gestures with his hands. And of course, WHAT he says is often incoherent.
Biden has a great team except for his AG. Biden can hold meeting from. 11 to 4. Sure, if everyone would come out of a meeting and embrace Harris, and she promised to continue Biden’s policies, and got a good looking white guy as VP, the Dems could move forward. But then the questioning press would start talking about how an aggressive Black woman can’t win. It’s time to get real. This campaign is about Trump and the truth. Biden, sleeping in his chair is still 1000 x better.
You give the media too much agency. You and many others sound like right-wing media who constantly hammer on MSM as biased against them and never discuss the merits of any idea. The embrace of Harris would not come out of a single meeting, as you put it. It would come out of the 2,000 delegates choosing her as their nominee at the convention, a 4-day event, and their confidence in her would come out of how she polls and performs in the weeks between now and then.
You do realize that this isn’t a fair fight don’t you? The electoral college advantage that Trump benefits from leaves a very thin path to victory for Biden, and he cannot possibly sweep up the states he needs without heavy turnout and meaningful enthusiasm. He barely won in 2020! Turnout can only be juiced by a new, fresh candidate who gets to run on the success's of Biden’s term. I will undoubtedly vote for him if needed, but he did his party and the country a disservice when he decided to run again.
Actually if you listened to the recent ABC interview, Biden was not even willing to take a neurological evaluation to reassure the electorate. When he is already polling behind Trump in many states, & has a terrible presentation/ debate, why wouldn’t he agree to have a neurological work up to relieve doubt? There is No question that Biden is a better choice than Trump; even if mentally incapacitated, BUT that is not the issue. The issue is winning the swing undecided voters we need to win. Why wouldn’t Biden say YES… to eliminate that worry for voters.. so we all can move on, to beat Trump?? It does not look from here, that he is willing to give up the power he holds, to save our democracy.
For which press is Trump acceptable? Fox, OAN and Newsmax? Those are infotainment channels, not press. I said in another post we need to stop comparing Biden to Trump, it's completely pointless, we all know Trump is infinitely worse. Those of us who think Biden should step down are comparing him to the other potential Dem candidates and we are coming around to the opinion that most of the other potential candidates would be stronger than Biden.
Biden is no longer capable to run well, win and serve as a competent energetic president for 4 years, in my view. He shows the signs and symptoms of a neurodegenerative disease, one includes cognitive impairment and Parkinsonian movement. My best guess is Lewy Body Dementia. There is a very good, new lab test called the Syn-OneTest which can show whether or not he has one of a small group of these symucleinopthies. They are all progressive and fatal.
Thank you and everything I wanted to say. The media wants to forget about Trump and make this election a referendum on Joe Biden. The media is making the case for a Trump administration.
Sara, I'm sick of this. Trump could literally poop on stage and every pundit and commentator would say he is great and natural and authentic. Trump sat in a court room for weeks sleeping and farting and his supporters and the media loved him more and never suggested replacing him. Biden has a very bad night (especially considering the over expectations that you generated) and he's out, he's done for. It's Hillary's emails all over again.
It's been much, much more than one bad night. His staff have been covering up his decline. Now people are finally coming out and saying he's been going downhill for the last year or so.
I have seen such reporting, especially about the decline in the last few months. I don't have time to search and find links to this reporting for you.
I am a lifelong Democrat. I'm not a Bidenist, committed to the man. Rather, I'm a Democrat, committed to the party and to the cause and the candidate who can best beat Trump. And I certainly don't want Trump to win.
Yes, but dumping Biden is a weak move. Why cannot Drmocrats rally around him like Republicans do for their candidates. Why are we so willing to let Republicans write our script?
Jesus Christ on a bicycle. It's all over the media. Video, verbatim stuff. People who know the guy. People who like him. A very good article by Olivia Nuzzi in New York Magazine a few days ago. She is not for Trump. Neither am I.
Well you're going to get him we don't back up Biden. No one else can beat Trump. A lot of low information will vote for Bidrn because they know he's President now. They probably aren't reading the New Yorker.
If this is what you are hearing you can add/modify your outlets of information. I hear people talking about how both men were a disaster on the 27th but that there is not a candidate prosecuting/holding Trump to account for his dementia and bad policies. People are honestly shocked at Biden's performance on 27th and since then. Plenty of outlets are speaking about Trump's dementia and bad policies and demise of democracy.
Biden himself in the ABC interview on Friday basically admitted he couldn't handle Trump even with the mic cut off.
President Biden said "watch me" when he was questioned about his age after deciding run for re-election. We didn't get many chances to watch him without a teleprompter as he did not do many press conferences. We watched him in the debate. This wasn't just a bad night. This was also a bad 10 days of preparation. President Biden assured us he was up for the job. His debate performance was a complete disaster. President Biden let his party down and if he stays in the race, he is letting his country down too.
Oh for chrissakes. Since the debate, the President has held 18 events, both official and campaign-related. Trump has held NONE. This week the President is hosting a NATO summit at the White House. While you obsess over a debate that happened 11 days ago, the President as been busy doing his job and running for reelection.
Because it is Hillary's emails all over again. No one gives a shit against Trump because they know he's crazy, but the NYTs says Biden had a bad night so it's dump on Biden until Trump wins.
Teleprompters--for off the cuff and extempore press conferences? I think not. For a 6 minute speech to donors? Very bizarre.
If Biden runs of course I will vote for him. But he will lose, of course. Then, I suppose people like you who are blocking your ears and saying "La la la" will blame it on the media.
I don't know if it's Alzheimer's or Parkinson's. But there is something definitely wrong. (I am a health professional, by the way.)
All of these commentators are creating an issue . We need to stand strong behind Biden or fall to Christo fascism. I am having my doubts about all of these commentators like Kristal who have always been hard right. Harris is in place if Joe fails and so far he looks strong and capable despite these detractors. Watch the film Bad Faith to see what we are up against. Prime for only 99 cents. This is the most important film of our lifetime and I am wondering where this column stands.
I would like someone to have a serious plan for how we go about putting up a different nominee. I would be very happy with Harris if it were 100,,%foolproof. Otherwise we know that she will come by the position without risk. I would remove the word strong but Biden is capable and his administration is also. I have not seen any info on how we replace him that is as good as Harris taking over. I watched Bad Faith last night and am terrified that we are hearing calls to remove Biden as our nominee without a clear vision of how we replace him. It is dangerous with what is at stake
But the fact is, Trump HASN'T been laying low. He's sending out his usual raft of unhinged tweets since the debate. The only difference is that they're not being covered.
It doesn't matter what Trump does or doesn't do, we all know that he could literally shoot a man on 5th Avenue and still keep his supporters. I think we should all stop comparing Biden to Trump. Everyone in this forum knows that Trump is infinitely worse than Biden, reminding us of this fact accomplishes nothing. Trump is not a normal candidate so the normal rules of politics don't apply to him. The alternatives we should be comparing Biden to are the other potential Democratic presidential candidates. The fact that Biden isn't dominating in the polls right now against Trump is the strongest indicator that he is a weak candidate at this point. I'm very confident that one of the other Dem candidates would be stronger against Trump. The biggest question would be, which candidate? The only way to answer that would be to have an open, contested convention. I'm not convinced this would tear the party apart, this isn't 1968. There wasn't an existential threat on the other side in '68 like we have now, the Dems should be able to act accordingly and pick the best candidate and then rally behind him or her.
I feel sorry for you guys. First it's blame the media. Then it's repeat all the lame excuses coming from the campaign staff, who don't want to lose their jobs. Jet lag lasting for 2 weeks?
The entire media universe is not covering up for Joe, and you guys are having a fit over it. There is actually nowhere for you to turn as even MSNBC is sticking to the facts.
The man is at the point of no return. He's going to lose the election unless some Plan B that might have a fighting chance is adopted.
Jane, I often agree with you, and I have a sarcastic slant to my humor, too. But "Dr. Fichter" is correct; that is what many Americans saw. And if you haven't seen the fear on people's faces after this debate, I don't know what to tell you. I work with very liberal people and they almost had a mass coronary event. The main reaction was "Maybe he had COVID? I hope?"
He had a bad night at that debate. I'm not arguing he didn't. But the reaction has been way over the top. Lots of it, I'm sure, is because people realize what's at stake in this election. It's the on-going hysteria over it that I don't get. The president has held 18 events since then, and he's been just fine. Why do we think that President Biden has to be perfect at every event, but we don't expect the same from Trump? I understand the immediate reaction to the debate, but the fact that it's still going on nearly two weeks later? That, I don't get.
It's weird to me coming back from over a week of offline vacation and everyone is talking about the same things. Not much progress made this holiday week, I see.
The debate was hard for those of us who kept telling friends and family that Biden wasn't senile and is in great health. The media will keep harping on it because its owners have tax priorities. We knew going into it that the NY Times was going to declare Trump the winner, although I'm aghast at their stories about the important people who want Biden to step down who are never once mentioned by name. That's not a story, NY Times, that's gossip. Learn the difference - when you had a different owner, you knew it. But the real, real problem is JVL's law: if you're not anti-Trump, you are working for Trump. I'm constantly left wondering if no Democrats will speak out against fascism or if they do and the media won't report it, which seems far fetched but who the hell knows anymore.
He hasn't done much better at any events where he's not reading a script.
You obviously have not seen this kind of deterioration in older people in your life, I think, because you and some others here seem clueless, and blame the media for accurate reporting.
We should appreciate the heads-up is coming now, and not in September!
I'm a nurse practitioner, not a doctor. But that debate performance is actually where his functioning is. Not good, Bob. He can occasionally do better but there's a clear trend downwards from the Joe biden of 2020.
It's not helpful to engage in wishful thinking and be angry at the media reporting what it's their job to report.
The days of FDR and never showing the wheelchair are gone.
The solution for that is more unscripted events. Instead we have radio interviews where the hosts are told what to ask the President. Biden's campaign seems to be afraid of putting him in of the cuff situations. Once his campaign starts doing that, then we can stop with the teleprompter BS.
Yeah, I know. If Joe's running, he's got to be able to show himself tracking reality and language somehow. I would have been happier if in the mop up interview Stephanopolous would have asked him about stuff like the economy, immigration, etc. The question of his capacity to serve, or not, would have been cleared up one way or another.
How do you know that. I believe he has given several scripted and a couple scripted and non scripted interviews in the past week. You might try looking them up.
Using a teleprompter shows Biden is no longer capable of thinking on his feet. It's s crutch. Biden's age is a real issue. Anyone who says it's not is in denial.
I have been arguing with my son for months that Biden doesn’t have dementia and his physical limitations are not indicative of his mental acuity. And then the debate happened. Several friends of mine also had Biden doubters contact them after the debate. Over 50 million people watched the debate and an additional 30 million saw clips. That’s too many people who saw the debate and felt intense sadness and fear. I doubt we can unring that bell. Of course I will vote for him if he’s the nominee but there is no room for error with Trump and Project 2025 waiting in the wings.
Biden overprepared for the debate by filling his head with responses to Trump's lies. Hopefully, he will just call him out in the second debate and not worry so much about responding to all the lies. Trump is a master of bullshit. The current debate format is a no win situation unless the moderators insist on getting their questions answered and cutting off the mike otherwise.
This is exactly the reason the pro-democracy coalition needs a new candidate, Jennifer. I have thought of this exact line as a perfect comeback but Biden is not using it. He supposedly talked about golf again on Morning Joe! Voters are not going to care if Trump is lazy ESPECIALLY now that Biden is going to operate on a lighter schedule himself. Voters now have a choice between 2 arrogant men with different cognitive challenges (Trump much farther along in his decline) but Dems can right the ship
On the radio interview in question he said that he was the first black president. Do we know what he means...yes. He can still govern even when he mixes up Marcon and Mitterand or billions and millions but he cannot campaign.
It's mystifying why so many Democrats are fine with sticking with Biden even though it's likely he loses to Trump. Do they not understand the existential threat to our democracy that Trump represents? I don't think they do.
What politician talks without a teleprompter! When Trump does it, he sounds like a lunatic. But all you hear after is crickets. Trump is a stupid crazy old fart and THAT
Maybe it should be the only story, but it isn't. I love Joe Biden, I voted for him, I think he has been the best president of my lifetime (I'm 55), and now I think he should withdraw his candidacy for reelection.
Why? He had a bad debate. He has since been on the campaign trail and has delivered several speeches and he's okay. Why are you letting the conservative echo chamber decide. Trump, who slept and farted in court and has 34 felonies did not get as much bad press as Biden is getting for one lousy bad debate. If Biden drops out, Trump wins. Remember Hillary's emails!
Outside of formal speeches, few politicians employ a teleprompter. Biden has been going into the private homes for fundraisers and uses a teleprompter when he talks. Which other politician on the planet does that? None.
Biden should sit down with a decent reported every week on TV. He should be asked lots of questions besides why he won't step down. He should use them for "fireside chats" to discuss what he has accomplished and what his administration hopes to achieve in the net four years. That is what the election is about. Trump has no idea how to answer any of the those questions except to lie and blame immigrants.
He has had several interviews and given ad hoc statements and no one cares. He is hosting NATO at the White House. Trump is sitting on his toilet tweeting, but Biden was sick and sounded bad during the debate. I swear, if FDR was running, all they would talk about is how he's in wheel chair, but that Hitler guy gives a good speech. So what if he wants to kill all the Jews. He doesn't really mean it. And he looks good in phoney uniform and he can walk.
If Biden made an antifascism speech, it would get covered everywhere. If he addressed the country from the Oval Office about increasing political violence, it would get attention. But he won't.
They always agree to interviews and include questions they want asked or they look over the reporters questions. They do that for every person being interviewed. They do it for movie stars and celebrities all the time
You are deluded as the trump supporters you accuse people who disagree with you of being. I've read all of your comments to this point and you just parrot the campaign's lines and contemptuously ignore and dismiss any other perspective. Get outside your little bubble and look around. Not everyone sees the world as you do. In fact, most don't.
Whether Joe Biden stays in the race or not, is the best chance to win or not, or wins or loses isn't the point of my comment.
My point is that you and everyone else who refuses to take seriously the concerns of millions of Americans and accuses people who disagree with you are, in the long run, as dangerous as the MAGA crowd. The language you speak is the language of Republicans in 2011. It's the language of the true believer.
He told Stephanopoulos he takes one every day! Even if he took the person, woman, man, camera, tv test, that's not the same thing as a neurological test, which is what I think is needed after that debate performance.
That does not show he had a cognitive exam. The neurological exam showed he didn't have signs of having had a stroke, Parkinsons, etc. That's great. My brother in law died in February after suffering from Parkinson's (along with Parkinson's related dementia, for 18 years). It's awful and I'm thrilled the exam didn't show that.
But nowhere in the medical report you share does it mention cognitive testing, which goes far, far beyond what they tested.
His doctor, Kevin O'Connor, reported that the president underwent a complete neurology exam last February during this annual physical - along with exams by doctors from other specialities.
Will not be a circular firing squad. As Sarah Longwell constantly reminds us, the largest coalition in American politics is the anti-Trump coalition. This coalition will punish those politicians who are not team players in this crisis.
However, let's say you are correct: it just emphasizes the need to start work on a conservative party after the election and move towards a 3 party system: Democratic, MAGA and a new conservative party.
James Madison (from Feldman biography) originally wrote that" "the great object should be to combat the evil" of party". He was always cognizant of the balance of countervailing factions with a hope of reason winning. Eventually he relented to the party structure as a way to preserve the republic by acknowledging that constitutional structure by itself was not enough.
I haven't seen anything about Biden having taken a cognitive test 4 months ago. And in his interview with Stephanopolous, he said he hasn't taken one because "they" don't say he needs one. Can you share the info about the test he took?
He didn't. A few comments above, Sheri Smith shares the white house medical report from his February exam. He had neurological testing, which is not the same as cognitive testing.
A clear majority of voters (more than pre-debate) think he's not up to it. He is trailing in the polls. The Trump Biden polling for a long time has barely budged. What's the plan for changing that other than trying harder at the things you've already done and haven't worked?
Totally disagree that it would be “a circular firing squad.” Dems showed they could close ranks to beat Trump when Joe won the primary in 2020 due to his opponents unselfishly dropping out and endorsing him. Plus if Joe drops out now the Democratic convention and campaign would utterly dominate the news cycle. Trump would flail and seethe as nobody gives two shits about him or the one bit of news he could generate, a VP pick. By contrast if Biden stays the media will be watching him like a hawk and dissecting the slightest flubs with neurology experts on hot standby. Sorry but Biden is obviously NOT the best bet to beat Trump now.
No cognitive test result will erase what we saw and heard with our own eyes and ears anyway. Joe Biden is not currently fit for office. He is not fit to run for re-election. The sooner we address the issue, the better off we will be. With someone else on the ticket, we have a chance of beating Trump. He is a nice man. But none of us can beat old age.
You are wrong. The reason why most of the journalists at The Bulwark want President Biden to suspend his re-election campaign is because Vice President Harris would have a better chance of beating Trump, even though that is, by no means, guaranteed.
There is a chance, however, that Trump is such a reviled figure by so many Americans, and the 2025 Fascist Manifesto so despised by the American people that, Joe Biden, should he not drop out of his race, is re-elected simply for these two reasons alone.
Just an observation: 46 likes for this comment so far. I am not in agreement with it, and I know others are not as well, but as a group, we Never Trumpers are quite divided. I wonder how divided the entire pro-democracy coalition is. Has anyone seen any polling on this?
The Bulwark didn't ask Biden the question. They are repeating excerpts from a nationally prominent interviewer. Anyone following the news read that exchange.
Biden still won't take a stand against fascism or even mention its name, so he's intentionally pulling his punches. How's being soft on MAGA working out for him?
Another Biden hit piece by Bill. Using a third party dropping out in favor of a major party candidate to a major candidate of a major party to drop out for an unknown is comparing apples to oranges. Your GOP/conservative pretzel logic is showing.
Bill is also comparing completely different electoral systems.
First-past-the-prime, the system with one round that requires a plurality or a majority to win, is well-known for creating polarization.
The two-round, multiparty elections are known to lead to coalition results that better represent the electoral will.
Many activists have been trying to change election systems in the US. Over the years, activists have narrowed their interest to one specific implementation: Ranked Choice Voting. Research suggests it would help us make better choices by making it easier to transition from legacy candidates who are time-tested to new faces.
I have never heard The Bulwark argue, defend or discuss Ranked Choice Voting in any serious way — as anything besides the pet project of a few billionaires like Gehl (who is obsessed with a bad idea, i.e. jungle primaries).
Kristol has clearly, publicly separated himself from the post-2015 GOP and is ardently pro-democracy and anti-trump. Yet commenters on Morning Shots who disagree with him continue to accuse him of bad faith. It's tedious and unbecoming.
The problem is that I don't hear Bill making a case against trump, it's more like he's making a case against Biden. If he doesn't like Biden, fine. Instead of denigrating the President, he should be promoting the idea of whether or not Biden stays in the race, vote for the Democratic nominees. I hear crickets from him about that. He's a doom monger instead of someone promoting any ideas or solutions.
Are you aware of Kristol's activities since 2016? From Wikipedia:
Kristol vehemently opposed the nomination of Donald Trump as the Republican candidate for president in 2016. He has continued to express animosity towards Trump's domestic and foreign policy aims, and dismay at conservative Republicans who have accommodated themselves to the Trump administration.[54]
In January 2019, Kristol criticized President Trump's planned withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria and from Afghanistan.[55] On December 21, Kristol and a group calling itself Republicans for the Rule of Law released an ad encouraging viewers to call their Senators to demand top Trump officials be forced to testify in his impeachment trial.[56]
In March 2020, Kristol endorsed former U.S. vice president Joe Biden for President of the United States.[57] Kristol is founding director of Republican Voters Against Trump, a project of Defending Democracy Together, launched in May 2020.[58] On October 15, Kristol voted for the Democratic ticket. He stated "Just filled out my early absentee ballot in VA for Joe Biden & Kamala Harris, Mark Warner, and Jennifer Wexton. No regrets at all about this."[59]
No but it seems like others do. Dem voters, especially progressives, have a tradition of getting their panties in a bunch because they want a perfect candidate that checks all their boxes (that candidate doesn't exist)and either not voting or voting for someone else. They think they're teaching the Democratic Party a lesson. I can see that if Biden doesn't drop out, their panties will be in a bunch yet again. That's one of the things that got us trump in 2016.
I like bill but on this he is hiding the football. Biden can’t do or couldn’t have done anything that wouldn’t have him call for Biden to dropout. He could do backflips on stage and bill would say “see he is on drugs he gots to go”
Take a step back: The nominee of a party, four months before an election, is confronting pundits calling him to step down.
Like, does it set a good precedent to allow the press to sabotage a democratic election? Like, do we have a constitutional system, or can anybody just meddle with how Presidential elections are run?
I think the Bulwark and other publications saw the election meddling Trump did in 2020, and they were like "Yeah, it could be fun to see if we can break elections too."
I am sorry, but this not about the media. Yes they have been pretty insane the last 10 days. But this is about Biden and him being able to run an effective campaign against a criminal Trump. I am not sure he can do that anymore. He was terrible at the debate and hasn’t shown any change since. He is only going to get older and worse between now and election day. Please see what people are talking on TikTok. He is losing young people and the middle of the road former republicans who don’t want to vote for trump.
In case clicking on the link is too hard here is what the TikTok influencer said: "I have actually been very surprised by what I am seeing on social media. I have not seen concern or really anti-Biden sentiment on my social media pages from normal people. I have only seen the concern and the ‘Biden can’t do this’ from the punditry circle and the Beltway. Even with normal people in my life, like I’ve messaged and texted with them, and I’m like, ‘Hey, how are you feeling?’ They’re kind of all like, ‘We knew Joe Biden was old, but I’d rather vote for Grandpa Democracy than Grandpa Dictator.’"
I did read the article and I am not convinced, because I am on tiktok and instagram and I can see for myself what people are talking. Trump has a cult. His cult will turn out in record numbers no matter what. Biden never did, but is now expecting people to have cult like fealty to him, which is quite off putting to people and will depress turnout. This is not good.
So you think in four months we can find a candidate that will build enough name recognition to fight a cult leader?
I mean I understand your concerns about Biden, but if you understand how difficult it will be for him, nothing you say makes me believe anybody else is better positioned than Biden.
Also TikTok's amplification algorithm is controlled by China which is why the US is trying to ban TikTok or move its HQ to the US.
You TikToc owned by China? The same China that bribed Trump with millions of dollars in patents given to his daughter his first month in office. That TicTic? There a billions of poor Chinese people getting paid to manipulate the US elections on TicToc every day.
I went to a Washington Nationals game this holiday weekend and I overheard at least 5 conversations about Biden’s fitness. Maybe it’s a DC thing but it’s not just limited to the media.
The debate was a national event and it's normal to talk about it.
But the question is: Does the debate change anything?
Most people think it doesn't: Everybody who was planning to vote for Biden already thought he was too old; everybody voting against him was not going to change.
What the media is saying is that the debate "completely changed everything" — and now have their hair on fire.
But what we forget is that it is an essential narrative device to say "IN A NEW ERA OF DANGER, THINGS WILL NEVER BE THE SAME" (cue movie voice over). The media is biased towards that kind of framing, and that's the framing that is unuseful.
Your analysis is missing the segment of the electorate that was not already committed to voting one way or the other, the less-engaged, squishy marginal voters who will be decisive.
"Mr. Trump now leads Mr. Biden 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters nationally, a three-point swing toward the Republican from just a week earlier, before the debate. It is the largest lead Mr. Trump has recorded in a Times/Siena poll since 2015. Mr. Trump leads by even more among registered voters, 49 percent to 41 percent."
That's exactly it! You get the prize. Trump sits in court sleeping and farting for weeks, and then gets 3 convictions and NOT ONE ARTICLE SAYING HE SHOULD RESIGN. YES I'M YELLING. This is Hillary's emails all over again
Why are these Bulwark reporters joining the firing squad is what I want to know?
Trump should resign from what, his campaign? He had a primary. It was a Potemkin primary, but he was nominated by the Republican Party as the best representative of Republican values, and as far as I can tell, they're right, he is a perfect distillation of Republican values.
Look, I'm gonna vote Democrat no matter who, but can you let me be angry for a while? Biden's Administration screwed the pooch. I'm not JVL. I don't think Biden has done a great job. Fascism is on the rise. That's not a good sign. There's an illness in this country, and our President won't even name it. By God, there is so much material to work with, I could write 2 barnburner speeches a day that a normal person could probably edit into a sentence that would resonate with the electorate. JVL is out here talking about the illness of neoliberalism every day. But not Biden and the Democrats. They burned all their powder on infrastructure, which was very important, but notice that MAGA is taking credit for it all.
Oh well, I guess at least it's not people telling me I'm wrong for not putting all my faith in the Wonder Justice team of Jack Smith and Merrick Garland.
Seeya. Have fun over here in We Only Hold Our Nose For Dems When The Antichrist is Our Guy sandbox.
I’ll be enthusiastically voting for Joe & never coming here again. I can hear all of your insanity on msnbc if I decide I want to punch myself in the face some more.
Personally, I'm open to thinking Biden should resign — as one option among many to consider.
What shocks me is the speed at which the Bulwark and other media decided it was the *only* solution.
Based on the debate in which *everything* Trump said (according to PolitiFact) was a lie, it is the media's job to deconstruct and prosecute the case that Trump used the debate platform to lie and "perform" what a President might look like.
That's my belief, and I don't think I'm crazy because this is the position held by most historians, and spcialists of authoritarians.
Regardless, I would be *okay* to be overruled. I would be *okay* to be wrong. If the media I was reading just gave me a better sense of their humility.
But no, it's certainty after certainty. Rather than ever admit "Gee we don't know what's going on, let's takr a moment" they feel like they constantly have to say something — and that reactive cycle leads to very poor analysis.
So no, Stephanie and I aren't disagreeing because we are as fragile as Fox News viewers — but because the Bulwark pundits are as fragile as Fox News viewers: They take personally that we disagree with their certainty, and feel like they need to dig in.
Oh and BTW, they criticize Biden for, in their view, digging in.
I worry that the pundits and media are going to destroy Biden so he can't save the country. Joe Biden working one hour a day is 1000 times better than Trump and if everyone would stop bashing him he could get back up on the horse he fell off of and move forward in a dignified manner. I've been in Europe all summer and I can tell you NO ONE HERE wants Biden to drop out. They think Americans have lost their damned minds.
It's not Americans who have lost their minds, it's the chattering class — who probably was getting high while their classmates were learning about World War I and II and the rise of authoritarianism in Europe.
This is "Hillary Clinton's emails" all over again. And it was clear even at the time that her email servers were completely *irrelevant* to national security. Yet they obsessed over those more than the infinitely more dangerous Trump document case.
Here's what a prominent influencer is saying on Tik Tok:
"I have actually been very surprised by what I am seeing on social media. I have not seen concern or really anti-Biden sentiment on my social media pages from normal people. I have only seen the concern and the ‘Biden can’t do this’ from the punditry circle and the Beltway. Even with normal people in my life, like I’ve messaged and texted with them, and I’m like, ‘Hey, how are you feeling?’ They’re kind of all like, ‘We knew Joe Biden was old, but I’d rather vote for Grandpa Democracy than Grandpa Dictator.’"
Carol, you 100% right. It's the conservative echo chamber and the complicit American media that won't let it drop. Nothing about Trump's sleeping and farting in court and 34 convictions and a rape charge. That's just Trump being Trump, but Biden had a bad night.
And Trump's friends and family and supporters double down even when convicted of rape, bribery, interfering with election, sleeping in court and farting. I guess only Democratic candidates have to be perfect.
Maybe we can get Denzel Washington or Leonardo di Caprio to run for President. Would they be perfect enough?
So the lesson from France was not the centrists and leftists coming together to defeat the extremists.., it was that Biden needs to step down?? Less than 5 months before the election? For an unknown candidate who has not gone through a primary and been vetted nationally? Got it… I mean Desantis was loved by his party and then the country realized he didn’t have it… but I’m sure Harris or Whitmer or Shapiro or whoever won’t suffer the same fate. I mean what are we doing here? Biden was 81 before the debate and is 81 now… nothing materially changed with him but pundits and voters who participate in polling were scared by his performance which was horrendous. More scared than Trumps lies and his 2025 project? I doubt that… I also know there are millions and millions of Americans who didn’t see the debate and didn’t see anything about it. My wife is a doctor, she is busy as hell and doesn’t like politics. She didn’t watch a second of the debate but will be voting… she is not alone. I’m just really perplexed at how Trump and his unfitness to hold any office at all is now pushed way down the list of priorities to Biden is old and needs to step aside now… at the 11th hour. It’s complete and utter madness… it’s fanciful west wing stuff.
Christopher: If there was flooding in Europe today, The Bulwark would see this as proof that Biden needs to resign.
If asteroids hit the South Pacific: That will be a sign Biden needs to resign.
If Russia wins the Olympic games, that will be more vindication that Biden needs to resign.
Do you see? The goal is to pick the conclusion first (Biden needs to resign), and then you can mix and match it with any event. "Journalism" in the US, yay!
Exactly. Trump sleeping and farting in court and getting 34 convictions and not one pundit suggesting he should resign. Why? Because he won't. But Democrats are supposed to put on a hair shirt and apologise if their candidate is not perfect. They did it to Hilary and they're doing it to Biden. But Trump is exempt.
Easy answer to this question. The only thing that matters is a few persuadable voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, and PA. That is all that matters. So your wife who doesn't watch the debate is irrelevant.
What should be news but isn't is the Republican manipulation of the voter regulation and apparatus in MI and WI. From Secretary of Stae to poll watchers. They changed the law in MI that poll watchers can carry guns and challenge voters if they think there is fraud. That is just one law. I've written about it in several places but nothing in the mainstream media. I read about it online in a local MI paper.
The only benefactor of this continuing democratic version of clown cars on fire is CFT. He has no reason to make "public" appearances (as opposed to MAGA events) where his own mumbles, stumbles, gaffes and absurdities would be on display. The Democrats are playing into his permanent MO, deflection. "Look at that fool over there! Keep your eyes on him and you will see him ....." "No need to look at me, just watch his every movement, listen to his every word, put his every step on a scale of shuffles, stumbles, needs to be guided."
Which Putin troll started us down this path of verbal self-immolation?
So, I saw the debate. I, as a donating Biden supporter have more to base my judgements and decisions on than your wife, although I'm sure she will certainly view the debate to make an intelligent assessment before making her decision to vote for the most consequential office in the world.
She should definitely make her decision after watching an elderly man with a bad cold, exhaustion, and a severe stutter be confronted by a firehouse of lies from a maniac who kept shouting when his mic was turned off. She won’t consider the past 3+ years of progress this man made with the most do-nothing congress in history.
It’s called being a politician. It’s why businessmen suck at politics. Politics is an art form and Joe has it down pat.
But yeah, she needs to be sure and watch the debate to make up her mind.
It's just a weak excuse for his disaster. It also implies that when he wins it will be natural to expect him to be nonfunctional every time he gets a cold.
Stephanie, in no way shape or form am I impugning President Biden's accomplishments. He's been not only a very successful president, but also has had an admirable to great career as a "politician." My point is not about trump's behavior. He is a very damaged person who has somehow hypnotized half the population. How and why is a whole 'nuther deal. Christopher Jones' post said that his wife did not watch the debate and is voting. My point and his, I believe, is that she may be doing so without the whole picture of President Biden's state of being right now. Some jobs are not tolerant to a bad day or even a bad 90 minutes, cold or no cold. Stutter or no stutter. Think about an airline pilot's expected and constantly evaluated performance and the low tolerance for error. I think that I understand your point of view and it is kind of a bad deal being proposed for the POTUS, but it can be turned into a blazing success for everyone including him.
Good God, are you still talking about this? How about SCOTUS blowing up our democracy or Project 2025 or the losses the far right faced in France, Iran, England, or ANYthing else. If Biden stays in the race, can anyone here honestly tell me they will vote for Trump? Vote for Kennedy? Not vote?
What will happen will happen. The candidate will be the candidate. The more you guys talk about Biden needing to step down, the more you help Trump.
Nobody here voted for Trump in 2016 or 2020 or will vote for him in 2024. The point is to recognize when you have a losing candidate and to act. North of 70% don't want Biden to run and this will surely translate to poor turnout among his lukewarm supporters.
I get where you are coming from. I also think we're coming off a lot of bad news days and people are losing their shit, but we don't have any say in the matter. The media loves a good fight - they're like a couple of Bubbas in a dive bar getting excited over a cat fight. They are not acting in good faith on this - just going for the clicks.
I'd say the bigger point is this is a lot of wish casting. No one has wanted either candidate and we knew that before the primaries started but did nothing for many of the same reasons - lack of name recognition, lack of big donors, lack of experience, lack of broad appeal. But reality is that tens of millions of Americans voted for these two old white guys to be their respective nominees. And we will get the chance to vote again in November.
You don't have to love Joe - it's about beating Trump. Right Sarah?
But I'm really sick and tired of a bunch of former Republicans who can't lower their standards enough to actually join the Democratic Party telling us who our nominee should be. Find your own candidate! "With only 4 months to go? It's not feasible." Yeah - welcome to our world.
Yes, it sucks that out of 330 million people, these are the two best we ended up with. But I don't need to love Joe, I simply HATE Trump. And I don't need Joe to last another 4 years, just the next 4 months.
I voted for Biden in the primary, but I would have voted for someone else if there was a viable alternative. The reason there was not an alternative is because it would have been political suicide for someone like a Whitmer to be seen as not being a team player in the effort to defeat Trump. Now it is Biden who is not being a team player. Mr. we-finally-beat-Medicare cannot win.
Not because of the Debate, which they probably didn't watch, but because the endless nattering on about from the media. Hey media let's for one day, talk about nothing else but Trump sleeping and farting in court.
The issues you mention should certainly be top of mind when people make their voting decisions. The problem is that Biden does not appear capable of forcefully making that case to the American people. Until the debate, I was in favor of Biden staying in the race. After it, I am not. If Biden stays in, I will vote for him, because of the issues you outline. But this race will come down to the margins. Low information swing voters will not turn out to support a candidate who 72% of the country (which necessarily involves a lot of Democrats) thinks does not have the mental capacity to handle the serious job of leading the free world. People burying their head in the sand about Biden's fitness helps Trump more than anything. Why has Trump been notably and uncharacteristically silent about Biden's mental state since the debate? Because he wants Biden to stay in the race and has enough cunning to be able to follow the tried and true maxim about not interrupting your enemy when he is making a mistake.
Low information voters didn't watch the debate. But they do listen to pundis ranting about Biden being senile. Frankly, Biden's record should be making the case.
In a logical world where people considered policy when deciding their vote, Biden's record should suffice. But that's not the world we live in. Low information voters are going to see endless social media clips of Biden saying he beat Medicare and talking about a young woman killed by a migrant when asked about abortion. If the only people who voted were engaged citizens who read publications like The Bulwark, I would not be worried. But that is not the reality we live in and we have to deal with the situation we have, not the one we wish we had.
And the problem is the list is longer than Kimberly listed. Now every interview has a gaffe--just like Trump. However it's harder to hide with Biden since he doesn't have a record of sounding like a moron like Trump does.
Before the debate the campaign was struggling to inform voters about all of his many accomplishments so I'm not sure that is the way. He has done a decent job of indicating some policies for the next 4 years of Biden/Harris. Nobody believes that they will be voting for a Biden administration.
I've been thinking a lot about the fact that Biden doesn't seem capable of making the strong argument and on the surface, I get it. However, I would like to offer this - you know how everyone is saying no one is going to save us, it's up to us to save ourselves. Maybe WE need to be making the strong case - each of us here, the surrogates, other candidates, etc.
Face it, most people do NOT pay attention - if they did, we probably wouldn't be such a hot mess right now. But they do pay attention to their tribe - family, friends, co-workers, neighbors - others that they trust. So the more people we have saying vote for democracy not theocracy/autocracy, we could put up a turnip and still win.
What will happen will happen is pretty much the opposite of the strategy I will accept.
What helped Trump the most is the debate and everything Biden has done after it. There did not have to be a debate until October, the only reason there was is because that's what the Biden team chose. And the strategy failed terribly.
The result in France was expected (to me) and not a surprise.
My countrymen are predictable — because the news ecosystem in France is not as hollowed out as in the US. France has a solid investment in public news, and it's some people's job to report accurately.
The for-profit news ecosystem of the US is failing us.
As an example: You interpret these national events as vindicating your position on Biden. 🤦🏻♂️
As journalists, you are not able to walk and chew gum, and you could take inspiration from the media of other countries.
Absolutely. When I lived in France (French ex) many, many years ago, I was surprised how informed regular young people were. Everyone paid attention and everyone voted. The US corporate media (currently mostly owned by foreigners) has a vested interest in confusing the population. That's why schools in red states are kept to very low standards and education is now becoming Bible based. We don't want no critical thinking here!
Ad to that the purposeful dedication to sabotaging the election in favor of a mad man who will generate scandal and therefore clicks, which means dollars, is the only goal of American media.
I'm sure Bill will get a lot of hate for today's newsletter, so I just want to say that I agree with him that Biden should drop out and I appreciate that The Bulwark doesn't let itself get bullied by the comments section.
If unflappable consistency is a virtue, then I appreciate Joe Biden doesn't let himself get bullied by the pundit section.
Of course in modern democracies, being able to work with, and absorb ideas from people you disagree with is paramount.
I've been hearing Bill and AB talk about how Joe Biden is too old for years. It's not so much courage at this point, as it is a reflection of the hollowness of their thinking.
Bill has been beating this drum for a long time now, and now that he's vindicated, everyone wants to cancel their subscriptions. It sucks to be right, I guess.
We all have that goal. We just don't agree on how to keep it. In these comments, what you're seeing is a bunch of people who are going to vote blue no matter (count me among them) who arguing over whether Biden should stay or step aside. We are having these arguments because we aren't the people who are going to decide this election, but because lower info swing voters are. And I think the best way to get them to vote for the Democrat is to get another candidate, and I think it will be messy, but I am confident there is time to do it if Biden sees the writing on the wall, is honest with himself, and cooperates.
Bill is vindicated because he's been saying for months that Biden's age is a huge concern, it will be a big problem in the general election, and that Democrats would be wise to get another nominee. And he's been consistently denounced and told to shut up in these comments. But he was right then, and he's certainly not wrong after that debate. I think putting up a nominee in the general election who will be 86 before the end of his second term and has broadly confirmed for voters one of his greatest liabilities is bad politics, even madness, and potentially disastrous considering the present stakes. How can I make the case that someone should vote for Biden that's not "The other guy is worse?" I cannot make a positive case for the guy who showed up for that debate, knowing that the age question only goes in one direction, and it does not get better.
I am open to considering that the best thing for all of us is if Biden resigned.
What makes me suspicious is being told that this is the case without a shadow of a doubt.
What makes me frustrated is that the Bulwark is finding the weakest possible counterarguments — for instance, saying that the main argument is "don't trust your lying eyes" — to avoid having to substantially respond to real doubts that the readership they have cultivated have.
... does the Bulwark and the media have the measurement tools to determine whether the tide might not be what they think?
Just hear me out: If the data was not supporting the position that Biden should resign, how would we find it out? When are they double checking to see if their position just checks out?
It looks more like the Bulwark and other pundits made a reactive decision after the debate ("we'd still vote for Biden because we are the intelligentsia, but dumb voters are going to be had!") and they have absolutely no way of coming down from that tree. So their plan is to just keep hammering the message.
Is there anybody checkong the data? Is there any contingency if they decide they might be wrong?
No.
That's the hitch.
The media does not have a plan B because they've written this like a movie scenario — they aren't auditing the ecosystem tk analyze it.
Bill has been saying a lot more than Biden's age is a huge concern. Everyone agrees with that. He has also been saying that Biden should step aside. He has not been vindicated on that point. Neither Bill nor anyone else at the Bulwark has even addressed the counter arguments. They pretend that Lichtman, who is 10* for 10 on these matters, does not even exist.
No, I’ve not enjoyed or agreed with anything Bill has written. He’s old school Republican, a dinosaur. The Bulwark has suffered since he came on board and Charlie left.
You guys. Biden CANNOT win. He CANNOT. He will lose. There is no possible way he can beat Trump (short of the hamburger from heaven). He was already losing part of his base. There is zero chance undecideds will swing toward him. It's already a done deal, no matter how annoying it is to hear it. And, the louder the drums the sooner Jill will realize it's over and we can move to Plan B - which can only be a better plan. It just is.
I agree with this. I'm surprised our fellow Bulwark readers are so angry at The Bulwark. Be angry at The Fates, the spineless GOP who make Trump possible, the Democratic party for being so bad at messaging, at the Bidens for refusing to see what we all see. But don't shoot the messengers.
Plan B may not really be better. But it won't be worse.
It's because we know this is nonsense. Biden is on track to win. Trump is the underdog. And if the Bulwark isn't willing to give us that bit of honesty, then what's the point of coming here?
Plan B will not be better. It will be worse; it's just a question of how much worse it will be.
Keys to the White House. Biden currently turns nine keys true; no other Democrat turns more than seven, unless Biden resigns and Harris runs as incumbent (and eight are required to win).
How is Biden on track to win? I don't see evidence of that. I see only evidence that he is behind. If you dismiss polls, then ok, but what's your alternative evidence?
The Keys to the White House has long been a better predictor than the polls. When the polls said Hillary was a lock in 2016, the Keys said Trump was going to win. The Keys have correctly called every election except 2000, which nearly went the other way.
Biden turns nine keys true. You need eight true keys out of 13 to win. No other Democrat, except for Harris if Biden were to resign the presidency, would turn more than seven keys true.
Polls are garbage. We literally just got evidence of that again in France. The desperation for an interesting matchup has to end.
Maybe? I mean, none of us know. We are all rightly concerned. All I care about is that we keep Trump and his Project 2025 cronies out of power. I’m not feeling confident in Biden’s ability to win. Maybe he’s still the best option but he still loses. But I am not feeling great about it.
Indeed, as articulated in the essay, this is not about electing Joe Biden, it's bout defeating Donald Trump.
Another part of the Stephanoopoulos interview that speaks volume is this:
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: And — did you ever watch the debate afterwards?
PRESIDENT BIDEN: I don’t think I did, no.
Well you should watch it because 50 million voters watched it and you were incoherent for almost 90 minutes. You may not have watched it but Russia, China, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, ISIS, etc., did and they keep pressing the rewind button.
I would probably still be supporting Biden if he had: Watched the f'ing debate. Recognized it for the sheer disaster it was. Come out in the following days with a sincere apology and acknowledgement of his performance. Told us how he would not f up so badly again. But it seems he is in full denial mode, which is very worrisome to me - people in denial do not make sound decisions. ( Mostly watched the debate! All this! And he didn't even watch it.)
Yeah, I'm not for Biden resigning, but that answer was so bad... 😞
But part of me feels that if the media were less hysterical and hostile, it could push back on important points.
What would it be like if we were: "Joe Biden is a good president and candidate, but some of his attitude is out of line. After failing a debate, he definitely needs to do a post-mortem, which one would think would naturally involve rewatching the debate. If he is not rewatching the debate, this tells us his staff don't think he can learn."
The Biden team can respond to criticism.
In fact for over a year, a running joke had been that the Biden administration often seems to follow what the Bulwark suggests, and the Bulwark love it.
Remember when Joe Biden called Asa Hutchinson to apologize publicly for the shade thrown at him? That was the kind of thing the media said Joe Biden should do, that he did.
But "end your campaign" is not something anybody can be responsive to!
We're all for defeating Trump. We all understand the stark contrast between the two. We all know that Trump is indeed an existential treat to democracy. I of course can't speak for anyone but myself with respect to voting but I suspect we all will vote against Trump, no matter who is on the ticket. It's not about convincing the Bulwark crowd. It's about convincing the electorate in the ever expanding swing state map, which now includes ME, MN, NM, NH, and VA on top of AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI and that's not going to happen with a man who at times has trouble stringing coherent sentences together. In 2020 Biden was up 10 points in July. He's now behind 6 against a convicted felon, insurrectionist, and a man liable of sexual assault. We don't need to over think this. 72% of registered voters think Biden doesn't have the capacity to serve as President. The reason the Biden campaign had the early debate was to turn the numbers around and stop the hemorrhaging. They failed. The overwhelming majority of voters - not pundits, not the press, not the elite - but the overwhelming majority of voters think Biden is too old and his public appearances validate that. You can't govern if you can't win and Biden has ZERO upside 120 days from election day. Time for a reboot - now.
Biden was not an incumbent in 2020. He did not have a record to sell.
In this election, people.are unhappy about inflation.
The main decider among voters who haven't made up their mind is "Who will save us from inflation?"
This is not about age. Right now, because Donald Trump has the aura of a "movie businessman" the easy pitch to a low information voter is "Trump can fix the economy because he understands business."
The pushback should not be about Biden's age (which is obvious to everyone and does not need discussion) but Biden's policies for the next term.
Why is inflation persisting? What is he going to do in a second term to vanquish it?
Biden's pitch should be "We had a pandemic which I saved you from. We also have inflation but we have the *lowest* inflation of the world, and in a second term I will vanquish that just like I did COVID-19. My opponent talks and talks and talks, but he cannot get anything done, remember infrastructure week?"
But Biden is hampered from prosecuting that case effectively when the media is in Hillary Clinton's emails mode.
Please remember the entire media did a mea culpa for the email server story — but they have learned apparently nothing.
I don't believe for a second that he doesn't know if he watched it. What his answer demonstrates is that he is not mentally sharp or he would not have answered so nonsensically.
I think his answer demonstrates he didn't watch it because he's afraid to, and he didn't want to straight out admit he didn't watch it because he knew how bad that would sound. Hence the hedge that only made him sound foggy-brained.
Sad to say, this is getting more Trumpy all the time, with Biden leaning on Hunter for political advice and calling in to Morning Joe. His campaign is no longer about *us*, it's about *I*.
I think Bryan means that Hunter has been brought aboard as an adviser...just like Ivanka and Jared and his qualifications are as "solid". The reporting is that he is in meetings although some reports have indicated it was just for the holiday week.
Personally I think if Hunter stays beyond the holiday weekend, this is a sign that POTUS could be getting incorrigible and trusted family members help him through these episodes. I hope I am wildly off base.
NYT is reporting that black voters who watched the debate increased their support for Biden.
Jay Kuo reports that since the debate the NYT has had 192 stories about how bad Biden did. I couldn't find any NYT stories about how bad Trump did.
People who relied on media coverage had their support of Biden dip.
"Adrianne Shropshire, the executive director of BlackPAC, said her group’s post-debate polling found that support for Mr. Biden among Black voters who watched the debate had increased. But among Black voters who did not watch the debate and consumed coverage of it, there was a dip in support."
As Heather Cox Richardson reported in her 'Letters From An American' the other day, "Jennifer Schulze of Heartland Signal noted today that as of 8:00 this morning, the New York Times had published 192 pieces on Biden’s debate performance: 142 news articles and 50 opinion pieces. Trump was covered in 92 stories, about half of which were about the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling."
The Washington Post has been just as bad, including two catty op-eds over the weekend from Ruth Marcus and Kathleen Parker on 1) 'What we've learned from the cognitive test Biden refuses to take [Marcus] and 2) Biden has a 'women problem' [Parker] because his wife and VP are publicly supporting him and campaigning for him.
There's such a thing as reporting the news, and there's another such thing called driving the news. The media and the punditocracy continue chumming the water with 'should Biden stay or step aside' stories, then claim they have to 'report' on the sharks' feeding frenzy because it's 'newsworthy.'
Kathleen Parker was the woman who wrote about how Martha Ann Alito is a great partner for long walks around the neighborhood, so we should all ignore her bigotry and contempt for her husband's position.
It is, to be sure. But Biden and the Democrats have opened the door to it to a large extent, such that they lost control of the narrative. There has to be some measure of accountability for that.
I will continue to argue and fight the good fight on behalf of the Dems as the side with the better ideas, for the biggest number of people, at this point. But they aren't doing us any favors with how they have handled the situation, and over time no less than now. The Biden age question always has been a ticking time bomb. They've had years to address it (e.g. giving Harris a more significant, and much more visible, role within the administration). The signs of Joe becoming increasingly frail have played out on our screens for months now, even the past year or two. The apparent surprise among Democratic leadership that this is blowing up in our face is essentially political malpractice. So many people saw it coming. There is no excuse for them not to have been better prepared, especially given the stakes of the upcoming election.
Yes, Joe Biden sitting in the White House being old and yet the most effective president we've had in a generation has surely opened the door to the mass hysteria about his age. For crying out loud.....
Don't shoot the messenger, Jane. It is an issue, it is real, and it isn't going away. We can either accept that and make lemonade out of the lemons or ignore it and let the situation take control of us. Those are our choices. Period. We are less than intellectually honest if we do not acknowledge that the Democratic Party has made some piss poor choices in how it has prepared for this moment. Getting snarky with me, and others here, doesn't change that.
Since you seem to have an issue with how some folks here express themselves, I'll challenge you to show us the "mass hysteria" going on. I went out yesterday, and what I saw was people doing everyday people things. No panic. No discord. Just living life. As for our little Bulwark bubble, we all realize that this is just a discussion in this group. None of us have power over the situation. It's those who do and did who have gotten us into the unwanted mess that has occurred. It's okay to say that out loud and acknowledge it, as we wait and wonder what will happen next, as party insiders and big money donors make their voices heard. Our role as Little People (aka voters) is simply to live with the outcome. And to discuss it respectfully.
Well said D and this fantasy that The Bulwark is a bunch of Republican's trolling us poor dumb democrats along by pretending to hate trump is insanity. This community was forged from a collective of right, left and middle. We've always had policy differences, as well we should. The art of compromise has been lost by those who believe their way, is the only way.
Sorry for all you who feel compelled to make every "legitimate" discussion regarding who has the best chance to beat trump, an attack on Joe. It's not, the problems/baggage he carries is real. It will impact the swing voters, the only thing that matters in this election.
See NYT, which has published over 192 articles on Biden's debate performance as of a few days ago; likewise, see Washington Post, which even today has a home page laden with 'should Biden stay or step aside' articles and commentary. The Bulwark crowd has been in a full-blown panic since the night of the debate. Hell, the NYT has even started up a 'syntax blog' where they analyze every word that Biden says in any interview or speech. Turn on CNN or MSNBC and see if you can go 5 minutes without a 'Biden stay or go' story.
If that's not mass hysteria, tell me what is?
And of course there's always the 'what next' matter that never gets addressed. How would the party replace a nominee who doesn't voluntarily withdraw. Under current DNC rules, that's virtually impossible. What happens if the nomination is opened up at the convention, which it would have to be? Do you think the far left/pro-Palestinian protesters won't turn the convention into a food fight? On national TV? We're about 120 days out from the election, give or take. How wouldn't replacing the nominee of the party at the 11th hour not come across as weak?
I'm not shooting the messenger, Deutschmeister, and I apologize if my comment came across that way. I'm being realistic about what would happen if, that's all. I not clutching my pearls to dust over a single debate performance that's been blown way out of all proportion.
In another comment I've acknowledged that the media have gone too far in overtalking the situation, devoting as much as 45 minutes of an hourlong show to it, times however many shows that essentially repeat all the same talking points. I'm still waiting for them to devote even a modest fraction of that time to Project 2025 and its ramifications, which is no less important in the bigger picture. I guess I don't see overcoverage as hysteria so much as a business model -- run with the big story, get as many viewers as possible, raise advertising rates, generate more profit. That's what businesses do, and the media outlets are businesses at heart. Probably the answer is some of both ideas, dissatisfying as that may be..
I have no personal preference on the Stay or Go question and simply hope that those who have much more inside information than we do will make the right call in the end. I'm receptive to both sides of the debate. But I'm pretty inflexible on the issue of Democratic Party guilt. I've seen no argument yet that convinces me that they were not horribly underprepared for the issue or the moment. Considering that we all have to live with the outcome, it does not give me encouragement that their leadership can be trusted beyond this all-hands-on-deck moment. I'm no longer a Republican voter, and for more reasons than just DJT. But the Democratic Party is turning me off as well. Where to go in the future? I'm warming to viable third- and even fourth-party options, and compromise-based governing coalitions, if we can get past this moment with our democracy still intact.
And how many more independent and educated suburban voters did he lose, along with libs like me who almost evacuated their bowels watching the Biden ship hit the iceberg last week? I suspect the Black Biden voters would transfer their loyalty to a Black woman running for Prez.
Kamala. She can reconstruct the Black, female, educated suburban, independent, and student coalition that elected and re-elected Barry. The progressives would get on board as well.
Sorry but this country is not ready to elect a woman. A non-white woman even less likely. I hate that this is the case but it is. Note the structure of the electoral college.
I suppose some of those who prefer Kamala could hope Joe kicks in time to get her on the ballot in all the states, but I can't relate to that level of darkness and real realpolitik. And I wouldn't want to know anyone who does.
OK, but if Biden remains the nominee as he's said repeatedly he will? Kamala Harris isn't trying to push Biden out. Your choice in November remains binary: Biden or Trump.
And FTR, this educated, moderate suburban voter hasn't caved into panicked pearl clutching.
I think subscribers here will vote for whomever the Democrats put forward but I myself am angry that I have to rely on the incompetent Democrats once again to delay the death of the republic. This coalition is needed right now but it is difficult for all of us.
The way is risky regardless of the decision (Joe or Next Generation) so it is natural for people to discuss options to cope with our fears.
I have no concerns about Biden finishing his term.
I have no illusions that Biden will complete a second term.
Someone needs to be preparing and vetting Harris' answer with Joe to a question about the 25th Amendment before the VP debate.
I would remind you that it's the 'incompetent Democrats' who've stayed true to the Constitution, the rule of law, and have upheld our institutional norms while the other party caved to a D-list reality TV show host. But please feel free to be angry that a bunch of' incompetents' have to ride to the rescue. Again.
I don't forget! I am sad and angry that I have to rely on this one group who does not consistently understand how to speak to large portions of the electorate.
Biden should step aside this week. He's done a very good job. In the ABC interview he cited his accomplishments as a reason he should be reelected. The problem? He's 82 years old. He's in obvious decline. This will not improve. The chances of his being able to complete a four year term are even at best.
A large majority of Americans do not like their choice of Trump or Biden. This will lead to many people skipping the Presidential ballot line, or worse, staying home. Give people another choice. Make it Harris, Whitmer or Shapiro versus Trump. Do that and Trump will lose. AND THAT IS WHAT THIS ELECTION IS ALL ABOUT.
The problem with Biden stepping aside is that realistically there is not a hood path to a substitute candidate. A woman cannot win. I wish it weren’t true but it just is. Maybe some day. But not now.
I think the only way it can happen this week is if he announces while at a NATO meeting for 75th anniversary. I guess he could announce that upon strengthening NATO he is passing baton for next 4 years and having Harris at all meetings this week (whether she is nominee or not she will likely be in next administration and be helpful in transition). Then this week could be a wonderful good bye tour for Joe. However, I agree with AB that the resignation would most likely be next week as sands are still shifting.
The Democratic ticket loses nothing if Harris takes the baton and keeps the cabinet, with Biden as an official or unofficial advisor. He basically becomes a coach on the team… he doesn’t have to worry about public appearances and can focus entirely on policy and strategy. Harris is a woman and black/south Asian, so she’s a member of critical voting blocs. And she will shred Trump in the second debate.
But keep Biden who probably has a better chance of winning, and if he cannot complete his term, you get Harris anyway. That would be far preferable to the chaos created by preemptively replacing Biden.
Enough…enough. The Bulwark has entered the world of the fantastical. Most of the Bulwark writers have campaign experience and should know that less than 4 months is not adequate time to field another candidate. If you bang on this much longer, I am going to cancel my subscription and donate it to the Biden campaign.
The most telling part of Bill's entire opinion is where his friend says that he's coming around to Bill's "long held view" that Biden needs to go. So, no matter what Biden's done in the past, Bill has never wanted him. Notice he doesn't say who he does want. Me thinks he wants Nikki to switch parties and do what he clearly wants - an ultra-conservative just like him.
There's a whiff of the ad hominem argument there. The argument remains the same, good or bad, regardless of who propounds it, and regardless of who has "come around" to it.
Check out Politicususa and Daily Kos - both liberal sites (and yeah, they occasionally have crap). They have much better political analysis in many of their articles than Bill's. And they're behind Biden, pointing out the myriad of hits that he's getting.
He would do quantitative analyses of Twitter for Vox, and so he has acquired the journalistic tools to perceive the veil of social media's warping mirror.
He's one of the few media reporters who actually is reporting in part on the craziness of Biden being called to resign.
Honestly this is a great idea. Might be right there with you shortly. Getting so bored with the Bulwark’s crap lately. There’s other stuff going on that they could be talking about but instead it’s the 4,000th article about Biden dropping out.
And when he decides not to and proves Kristol’s smug confidence wrong? The Bulwark will write another couple thousand articles lamenting how he should have dropped out in July.
To all the commenters hating on the Bulwark for simply providing their opinion, remember:
1) I'm pretty sure that all Bulwark writers and analysts will be voting in November for whoever is NOT Donald Trump, whether it's Biden or a ham sandwich. So stop making it sound like "Biden's not up to the job" is equivalent to "I'm voting for Trump!" It makes it seem like you're not actually paying attention.
2) Following on point 1, the vast majority of Bulwark readers and writers are all ANTI-TRUMP. That makes us allies. If you can't be allies with people that you sometimes disagree with, then just cancel your subscription and move on. When you stop flooding the zone with your pro-Joe hysteria, it will be easier for me to find the substantive content that Bulwark readers provide here in the comments -- even the substantive pro-Joe ones.
3) Finally, if you're so virulently (dare I say violently?) pro-Joe, then it probably means you've never spent any time around an elderly person who is going through a significant cognitive decline. (I've mentioned in other comments watching my father go through this when he was the same age as Joe is now.) Joe Biden is elderly, and it's now painfully obvious that a decline has begun. Even if Joe wins (which I believe is not very likely at this point -- not because of the Bulwark, but because of low-info voters in swing states) we may be heading for an even worse crisis in a year or two, when Joe might not be capable of governing. Given the performance of Biden's staff and family so far (hiding Biden's decline from us), we could be headed for a Diane Feinstein moment in the next four years, except with the stakes infinitely higher.
In conclusion: I will vote for the ham sandwich before I vote for Trump. If you're reading this, I assume you would too. Forgive me for being blunt, but you're embarrassing yourself with all the hand-waving and hysterics in response to legitimate questions about whether Joe is the best way forward for the Democratic Party. And I am not -- and have never been -- a Republican.
I’m not concerned about a Feinstein moment within the next four years. I’m concerned about a Feinstein moment within the next four days. And in fact the Feinstein moment is starting right now
For simply providing their opinion? They pride themselves on basing their opinions upon objective analysis, but almost as if they had a meeting about it, they have steadfastly refused to even address the counter-arguments. The Bulwark's only argument is that maybe Joe might become incapable of governing and then what. That is their only argument, but the answer is easy. Harris steps in. The Bulwark recommends replacing Biden with Harris now in spite of all the accompanying chaos it will create.
Meanwhile there are many arguments for keeping Biden. Most prominent is the post-debate analysis from Lichtman who has been 10* for 10 in calling the winner of presidential elections. The Bulwark steadfastly refuses to even address argument contrary to their per-determined position. Nothing objective about that.
Most of the hysteria is from the replace Biden camp. It is a position born of an emotional overreaction to the debate. No one hid anything from us. Phillips ran his primary race on amplifying Biden's condition, even though according to Tim Miller, there have only been twenty "bad days" in the last 3.5 years.
1) The analogies to Iran and France this morning are meant to be encouraging, I know, but essentially exist in a vacuum. One, 98 percent of the electorate here does not care what happened there, and a large portion thereof probably didn't put their devices down long enough over the weekend to hear or read about what happened there, much less digest the ramifications. Most Americans are americacentric and look little past their own bottom line. Two, the governing structure of France, as with many other European nations, is grounded in multiple parties and coalition-building, unlike here, where you have essentially three choices: Republican, Democrat, or Other -- make that two choices, since Other will not get enough votes to matter. Their system is not our system, and vice-versa.
2) There aren't enough Republicans left to build a coalition of the willing to undermine Trump on the right, and none -- zip, zilch, zero -- will abandon him at this point within their movement. We are happy to see that the Democrats at least are willing to have honest discussions about whether or not their candidate at the top of the ticket should be replaced. But at this time and in this place it is cold comfort, because those inside the GOPMAGA bubble aren't hearing the message, much less are they receptive to it. Our morality is intact, and we applaud ourselves for it. Is that the sound of one hand clapping?
3) Regrettably, Joe Biden has moved firmly into the category of "anything you say or do can and will be used against you." The biggest casualty of the debate is that he lost the benefit of the doubt. Now everybody is scrutinizing his every word, every physical move, every gesture, every flub, and seeing it as a sign that he must go rather than finding reasons as to why he should stay. In line with that, for reasons of political pragmatism, the left increasingly is moving into eat-their-own mode, a game that Biden cannot win as he emerges either greatly weakened or pushed aside. Again, it's good that they are willing to hold their candidates to a higher level of scrutiny when the right long since abandoned any premise of it. But in real time it is becoming a snowball rolling downhill and gaining momentum, as GOPMAGA gleefully watches in silence, unwilling to take the attention off of the spectacle, allowing its opposition to implode in the mother of all unforced errors. There is no positive spin to put on this. It is a worst-case scenario. The main hope now is that, all politics being cyclical, there is enough time until November for the worm to turn again -- presuming the Democrats make the right call on the Joe issue -- and for them to regain momentum, for DJT to stumble and fall badly, or both. Online gambling sites are waiting for you to place your wager on that, if you are so inclined.
4) "One Democratic House member told The Bulwark that of his interactions with voters over the July 4th break, 80 percent wanted Biden to stick it out while 20 percent wanted him to go. But the more important element, the member added, was who made up the 80 percent: 'Black women are strongest for Joe.' That’s the bedrock constituency of the party."
Huh? I don't have exact statistics, but memory tells me that Blacks make up about 12 percent of the American population. Split roughly in half, that means Black women are about six to seven percent. How is that the "bedrock constituency"? In a close election, yes, that matters. But when one utilizes terms like "bedrock constituency," I'm thinking of much larger groups (e.g. labor). Have we given up on those important entities, or do we merely take them for granted, as we go down the diverse voices of the political left? We might be missing the forest for the trees at that point.
From what I've seen lately, Black women are stoked about Kamala. And regardless of what union COPE committees do and say, I would say that individual union members are definitely hearing that Biden's too old. How could they not be? Myself, I will vote for anyone who is "D" on the ballot.
Lots of good points and articulation, but you lost me with your conclusion. I don't understand what you mean by "take them for granted" — it sounds like a revanchist talking point.
As for what is meant by "bedrock constituency" is that there are some constituencies that can be *inspired* to vote (young people, busy people) and others that tend to vote very reliably no matter what (senior citizens, Black women).
These terms don't mean much. The more important point in what you said is that yes, most voters already felt Joe was way too old. They have "priced" this in their decision, and the "shock" of his performance in the debate is a bit performative.
Nobody in DC is saying "the debate makes me think Biden can't do the job" but everybody is saying "the debates make me concerned about what *voters* will think." It's second order effects!
I meant "take them for granted" in the sense that, while we often acknowledge that the Democratic "base" is very diverse, some groups seem to be feeling a bit ignored or misrepresented by the messaging -- Blacks to some extent, Hispanics (who are seen by some as one homogeneous group more than a patchwork quilt of different people, of differing backgrounds), labor and the traditional "working stiff," the far left with its agenda, and so on. The accusations may or may not be true to some extent or another, and it is hard to give equal time to everybody. But to the extent that perception becomes reality in the mind, the Democratic Party has a lot of work to do 1) to keep its core onboard when the GOP increasingly is trying to erode the historical barriers and poach voters, and 2) to keep supporters engaged enough to actually show up at the polls in November. My greatest fear remains not that MAGA will grow at this point, rather that too many liberals will sit out the election due to dissatisfaction or disinterest (no strong personal passion) and essentially throw a close election to the right. We saw how that worked out in 2016. Best not to go there again.
You people are getting as bad as the mainstream press. Biden had a cognitive test four months ago. Why do you keep reporting like this which seems to me to be bad faith. I agree Joe’s not what he used to be but he’s in the best position to fight Trump. What kind of a mess will it be if he steps aside. A circular firing squad.
His age has been a concern for years, he’s polling badly, and he’s not getting younger. He also seems incapable of aggressively prosecuting the case against Trump outside of scripted speeches. Biden has been a great POTUS. I believe it’s time for him to hand the keys over to the next generation.
As Sarah Longwell mentioned, it sets the Dems up as the responsible, youthful party against a raging old lunatic.
All these people who are calling for Biden to step down should read Timothy Snyder's Substack about how this plays into the acceptance of fascist government. It shows that Trump's behavior has been seen as acceptable because he has taken control of the Republican Party. He is much less qualified to be president than a diminished Biden. A convicted felon, a sexual predator, a fraud, a liar, and the only former president who refused to accept the results of the election. He also is still threatening violence if he loses, and even if he wins. But this is all acceptable to the press? Also, no one answers how the Dems could suddenly unite behind a new candidate. This is worse than Hillary's emails. Get over it. Biden is willing to give his life to the country. Trump is willing to throw the country away for his own personal gain. Your choice.
No one answers how a sufficient Dems-plus coalition could suddenly unite behind the *current* candidate, except by magical thinking. Just believe harder! Cancel the doubters!
A critique of Biden's ability to defeat Trump is not an endorsement of Trump.
Many voted for Biden in 2020, despite preferring others, because at the time he seemed the best shot. Not all of these people were Democrats.
In fact, with only registered-Democrat support, Biden would have lost the general election. He ended up receiving 52% of unaffiliated/other-registered voters, and 5% of registered Republicans.
We here may recognize that governance is a team project, and that even a comatose Biden would have a far better team on the job; we will vote for Biden if he's on the ballot. But presidential elections are won and lost mainly on how the less-engaged, squishy middle of the electorate perceives the individuals.
My expectations are higher for the "less-engaged, squishy middle".
Why? Because they've been pulling through for us since Trump's surprise win in 2016.
Biden.
You must not know Liberal Cynic...lol
The anti-Trump ex-Republicans want the Dems to nominate a friendly, approachable. Center-right conservative. They would feel great about supporting such a person, and from their silo they think all the Dems would follow. But Biden is in the Democratic Party. They Dems like him and they trust he will put the right people in place.
Only if he gets elected
What second term? He's way underwater right now
I would agree with you if it was just about governing and not winning. The polls are bad and more importantly are getting worse.
Life isn’t fair. Joe Biden saved us by beating Trump and never got to enjoy his victory because of Trump’s election lies. But you can’t undo the damage that has happened the last two weeks. I hate to see him step aside it will be painful to digest but it needs to happen.
The polls weren't against him they were massively for him. General election is the only thing that matters not primary voters. Biden was up by almost double digits in Wisconsin and won by less than a point. Similar margins in other swing states. Trump massively outperformed his polls in 2020 so it is terrifying to think of Biden being down significantly going into November. I love what Joe Biden has done but he is compromised. It happens it's terrible but you can't fix it anymore and it's on him to at least give the party a fighting chance.
There is no mainstream outlet saying Trump is fine. Plenty of people have explained how Harris takes over the campaign. She just needs a VP. Otherwise the entire apparatus keeps churning.
Yeah, they are not saying anything about Trump. The media is just watching the lies flow by.
Biden's cognitive issues will be in the headlines until he finally steps down.
The MSM can kiss my ass
And what if he doesn't Stephanie?
Harris taking over is weak move.
What would be a strong move? Seriously, I really want to know. This is no longer an intellectual exercise.
See Ezra Klein's "Is Kamala Harris Underrated?" (https://youtu.be/KyvaxlKuOuE?si=PZl6TSJkTbq0Tk2d). I was persuaded that if she were allowed to be the law and order Dem that she is, she can be a strong candidate.
Idk. Maybe the media might have televised some of the speeches he's made since the debate. He's currently hosting NATO event at the WH. Maybe reporters could discuss that. How much do you want to bet they won't?
I disagree. See Ezra Klein's "Is Kamala Harris Underrated?" (https://youtu.be/KyvaxlKuOuE?si=PZl6TSJkTbq0Tk2d). I was persuaded that if she were allowed to be the law and order Dem that she is, she can be a strong candidate.
Blah ,blah, blah. We all know what Trump is. We now know the true condition of Biden. The DNC needs to make the only decision that is rational. Stop telling us everything is okay. It is not. Biden will not beat Trump. Maybe his replacement won't either, but Biden is a sure loser.
Thats it right there
I'd say we don't really know Biden's true condition because except for the debate, he is still keeping a killer schedule, getting out and speaking (D-Day speech particularly good) and people who have spent time with him say he's fine. I think folks like Bill Krystol here have axes to grind and I say stuff it Bill. And Tim too.
I will vote for Biden. I have spoken to two Dems who have said they won't go to the polls if Biden runs. Independently, they said something to the effect of the DNC is incompetent; they don't care about the voters. So, you can yell at the posters here all you want, but you will just have to accept that Biden has turned off a whole slew of voters who won't show up. How is that going to beat Trump?
Changing the subject to Trump and his problems doesn't solve Biden's problems which are worsening all the time.
We the readership think replacing him may be difficult. But it's not OUR job to figure that out. Plenty of experienced politicians and campaign strategists are working all the details out.
It doesn't matter WHO his team is. People don't vote for a team.
I do not need to give proof Biden is worsening all the time. You seen to be living in a cocoon. Look at video of him over the last 10 years. Look at how he walks, the lack of expression in his face, the way he gestures with his hands. And of course, WHAT he says is often incoherent.
Biden has a great team except for his AG. Biden can hold meeting from. 11 to 4. Sure, if everyone would come out of a meeting and embrace Harris, and she promised to continue Biden’s policies, and got a good looking white guy as VP, the Dems could move forward. But then the questioning press would start talking about how an aggressive Black woman can’t win. It’s time to get real. This campaign is about Trump and the truth. Biden, sleeping in his chair is still 1000 x better.
No, it's only about WINNING
You give the media too much agency. You and many others sound like right-wing media who constantly hammer on MSM as biased against them and never discuss the merits of any idea. The embrace of Harris would not come out of a single meeting, as you put it. It would come out of the 2,000 delegates choosing her as their nominee at the convention, a 4-day event, and their confidence in her would come out of how she polls and performs in the weeks between now and then.
Thank you so much for pointing me to Timothy Snyder's Substack.
I also recommend: Ruth Ben-Ghiat (specialist in authoritarianism) and Aaron Rupar (quantitative news analyses).
You do realize that this isn’t a fair fight don’t you? The electoral college advantage that Trump benefits from leaves a very thin path to victory for Biden, and he cannot possibly sweep up the states he needs without heavy turnout and meaningful enthusiasm. He barely won in 2020! Turnout can only be juiced by a new, fresh candidate who gets to run on the success's of Biden’s term. I will undoubtedly vote for him if needed, but he did his party and the country a disservice when he decided to run again.
Actually if you listened to the recent ABC interview, Biden was not even willing to take a neurological evaluation to reassure the electorate. When he is already polling behind Trump in many states, & has a terrible presentation/ debate, why wouldn’t he agree to have a neurological work up to relieve doubt? There is No question that Biden is a better choice than Trump; even if mentally incapacitated, BUT that is not the issue. The issue is winning the swing undecided voters we need to win. Why wouldn’t Biden say YES… to eliminate that worry for voters.. so we all can move on, to beat Trump?? It does not look from here, that he is willing to give up the power he holds, to save our democracy.
For which press is Trump acceptable? Fox, OAN and Newsmax? Those are infotainment channels, not press. I said in another post we need to stop comparing Biden to Trump, it's completely pointless, we all know Trump is infinitely worse. Those of us who think Biden should step down are comparing him to the other potential Dem candidates and we are coming around to the opinion that most of the other potential candidates would be stronger than Biden.
"no one answers how the Dems could suddenly unite behind a new candidate"?
No so. See Ezra Klein from last February on how an open convention would work (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd-yMMSZDOI&list=PLdMrbgYfVl-szepgVpArP0obwYgbKdfvx&index=29&t=44s) and last week on Harris' prospects (https://youtu.be/KyvaxlKuOuE?si=nja4fGIvHyDMKUin).
Just your opinion yes, not based on any kind of evidence?
Biden is no longer capable to run well, win and serve as a competent energetic president for 4 years, in my view. He shows the signs and symptoms of a neurodegenerative disease, one includes cognitive impairment and Parkinsonian movement. My best guess is Lewy Body Dementia. There is a very good, new lab test called the Syn-OneTest which can show whether or not he has one of a small group of these symucleinopthies. They are all progressive and fatal.
Thank you and everything I wanted to say. The media wants to forget about Trump and make this election a referendum on Joe Biden. The media is making the case for a Trump administration.
Sara, I'm sick of this. Trump could literally poop on stage and every pundit and commentator would say he is great and natural and authentic. Trump sat in a court room for weeks sleeping and farting and his supporters and the media loved him more and never suggested replacing him. Biden has a very bad night (especially considering the over expectations that you generated) and he's out, he's done for. It's Hillary's emails all over again.
It's been much, much more than one bad night. His staff have been covering up his decline. Now people are finally coming out and saying he's been going downhill for the last year or so.
And you know this how? I think you just want Trump.
I have seen such reporting, especially about the decline in the last few months. I don't have time to search and find links to this reporting for you.
I am a lifelong Democrat. I'm not a Bidenist, committed to the man. Rather, I'm a Democrat, committed to the party and to the cause and the candidate who can best beat Trump. And I certainly don't want Trump to win.
Can you see that?
Yes, but dumping Biden is a weak move. Why cannot Drmocrats rally around him like Republicans do for their candidates. Why are we so willing to let Republicans write our script?
Jesus Christ on a bicycle. It's all over the media. Video, verbatim stuff. People who know the guy. People who like him. A very good article by Olivia Nuzzi in New York Magazine a few days ago. She is not for Trump. Neither am I.
Well you're going to get him we don't back up Biden. No one else can beat Trump. A lot of low information will vote for Bidrn because they know he's President now. They probably aren't reading the New Yorker.
If this is what you are hearing you can add/modify your outlets of information. I hear people talking about how both men were a disaster on the 27th but that there is not a candidate prosecuting/holding Trump to account for his dementia and bad policies. People are honestly shocked at Biden's performance on 27th and since then. Plenty of outlets are speaking about Trump's dementia and bad policies and demise of democracy.
Biden himself in the ABC interview on Friday basically admitted he couldn't handle Trump even with the mic cut off.
This 100%
No Sarah, it sets up the Democratic Party as weak.
Have you watched the recent episodes of The Next Level and The Secret Podcast? Sarah especially makes the case that it makes the party look strong.
Caving to media pressure and dumping Biden makes Democrats look weak.
Sara is wrong.
Would you let biden babysit your infant children for a week or two?
Yes. Trump, hell no.
1. I am not caving to media pressure. I watched Biden at the debate and decided for myself that he's too weak to beat Trump.
2. Why is Sarah wrong? I need reasons and facts. If it's just your opinion, please state is as such and not as a pronouncement of truth.
Tell me something I don't know
trump should be 10+ points underwater (or in prison) but he's ahead.
Its a candidate problem
And who is the responsible youthful party?
President Biden said "watch me" when he was questioned about his age after deciding run for re-election. We didn't get many chances to watch him without a teleprompter as he did not do many press conferences. We watched him in the debate. This wasn't just a bad night. This was also a bad 10 days of preparation. President Biden assured us he was up for the job. His debate performance was a complete disaster. President Biden let his party down and if he stays in the race, he is letting his country down too.
Oh for chrissakes. Since the debate, the President has held 18 events, both official and campaign-related. Trump has held NONE. This week the President is hosting a NATO summit at the White House. While you obsess over a debate that happened 11 days ago, the President as been busy doing his job and running for reelection.
One of you has a problem, and it isn't Joe.
Because it is Hillary's emails all over again. No one gives a shit against Trump because they know he's crazy, but the NYTs says Biden had a bad night so it's dump on Biden until Trump wins.
All events WITH A TELEPROMPTER, except the poor Stephanopoulos interview. Speeches of 10 minutes..
And? You know who else uses a TELEPROMPTER? And throws hissy fits when they don't work and he's left to fend for himself without one?
Teleprompters--for off the cuff and extempore press conferences? I think not. For a 6 minute speech to donors? Very bizarre.
If Biden runs of course I will vote for him. But he will lose, of course. Then, I suppose people like you who are blocking your ears and saying "La la la" will blame it on the media.
I don't know if it's Alzheimer's or Parkinson's. But there is something definitely wrong. (I am a health professional, by the way.)
All of these commentators are creating an issue . We need to stand strong behind Biden or fall to Christo fascism. I am having my doubts about all of these commentators like Kristal who have always been hard right. Harris is in place if Joe fails and so far he looks strong and capable despite these detractors. Watch the film Bad Faith to see what we are up against. Prime for only 99 cents. This is the most important film of our lifetime and I am wondering where this column stands.
Strong & capable?
Watch that "debate" again
I would like someone to have a serious plan for how we go about putting up a different nominee. I would be very happy with Harris if it were 100,,%foolproof. Otherwise we know that she will come by the position without risk. I would remove the word strong but Biden is capable and his administration is also. I have not seen any info on how we replace him that is as good as Harris taking over. I watched Bad Faith last night and am terrified that we are hearing calls to remove Biden as our nominee without a clear vision of how we replace him. It is dangerous with what is at stake
Part of the reason Trump is laying low is so everything will be about Biden
But the fact is, Trump HASN'T been laying low. He's sending out his usual raft of unhinged tweets since the debate. The only difference is that they're not being covered.
It doesn't matter what Trump does or doesn't do, we all know that he could literally shoot a man on 5th Avenue and still keep his supporters. I think we should all stop comparing Biden to Trump. Everyone in this forum knows that Trump is infinitely worse than Biden, reminding us of this fact accomplishes nothing. Trump is not a normal candidate so the normal rules of politics don't apply to him. The alternatives we should be comparing Biden to are the other potential Democratic presidential candidates. The fact that Biden isn't dominating in the polls right now against Trump is the strongest indicator that he is a weak candidate at this point. I'm very confident that one of the other Dem candidates would be stronger against Trump. The biggest question would be, which candidate? The only way to answer that would be to have an open, contested convention. I'm not convinced this would tear the party apart, this isn't 1968. There wasn't an existential threat on the other side in '68 like we have now, the Dems should be able to act accordingly and pick the best candidate and then rally behind him or her.
Never interfere when your opponent is tanking...
I feel sorry for you guys. First it's blame the media. Then it's repeat all the lame excuses coming from the campaign staff, who don't want to lose their jobs. Jet lag lasting for 2 weeks?
The entire media universe is not covering up for Joe, and you guys are having a fit over it. There is actually nowhere for you to turn as even MSNBC is sticking to the facts.
The man is at the point of no return. He's going to lose the election unless some Plan B that might have a fighting chance is adopted.
It was a health incident, not a debate. It scared the hell out of people.
Thanks for your input, Dr. Fichter.
Jane, I often agree with you, and I have a sarcastic slant to my humor, too. But "Dr. Fichter" is correct; that is what many Americans saw. And if you haven't seen the fear on people's faces after this debate, I don't know what to tell you. I work with very liberal people and they almost had a mass coronary event. The main reaction was "Maybe he had COVID? I hope?"
He had a bad night at that debate. I'm not arguing he didn't. But the reaction has been way over the top. Lots of it, I'm sure, is because people realize what's at stake in this election. It's the on-going hysteria over it that I don't get. The president has held 18 events since then, and he's been just fine. Why do we think that President Biden has to be perfect at every event, but we don't expect the same from Trump? I understand the immediate reaction to the debate, but the fact that it's still going on nearly two weeks later? That, I don't get.
It's weird to me coming back from over a week of offline vacation and everyone is talking about the same things. Not much progress made this holiday week, I see.
The debate was hard for those of us who kept telling friends and family that Biden wasn't senile and is in great health. The media will keep harping on it because its owners have tax priorities. We knew going into it that the NY Times was going to declare Trump the winner, although I'm aghast at their stories about the important people who want Biden to step down who are never once mentioned by name. That's not a story, NY Times, that's gossip. Learn the difference - when you had a different owner, you knew it. But the real, real problem is JVL's law: if you're not anti-Trump, you are working for Trump. I'm constantly left wondering if no Democrats will speak out against fascism or if they do and the media won't report it, which seems far fetched but who the hell knows anymore.
He hasn't done much better at any events where he's not reading a script.
You obviously have not seen this kind of deterioration in older people in your life, I think, because you and some others here seem clueless, and blame the media for accurate reporting.
We should appreciate the heads-up is coming now, and not in September!
I'm a nurse practitioner, not a doctor. But that debate performance is actually where his functioning is. Not good, Bob. He can occasionally do better but there's a clear trend downwards from the Joe biden of 2020.
It's not helpful to engage in wishful thinking and be angry at the media reporting what it's their job to report.
The days of FDR and never showing the wheelchair are gone.
Stop with the "teleprompter" BS.
The solution for that is more unscripted events. Instead we have radio interviews where the hosts are told what to ask the President. Biden's campaign seems to be afraid of putting him in of the cuff situations. Once his campaign starts doing that, then we can stop with the teleprompter BS.
They weren't told what to ask -- they were provided questions and topics that ALL campaigns provide.
Keep moving those goal posts.
Then why did the radio host resign and the radio station say it was against their policy ?
Link to that news.
A fireside chat format might work. Minimal stresses related to travel, etc.
It's a 24/7 job!
Yeah, I know. If Joe's running, he's got to be able to show himself tracking reality and language somehow. I would have been happier if in the mop up interview Stephanopolous would have asked him about stuff like the economy, immigration, etc. The question of his capacity to serve, or not, would have been cleared up one way or another.
How do you know that. I believe he has given several scripted and a couple scripted and non scripted interviews in the past week. You might try looking them up.
Not BS. Biden is using teleprompters in meetings with donors in their homes.
So?
Using a teleprompter shows Biden is no longer capable of thinking on his feet. It's s crutch. Biden's age is a real issue. Anyone who says it's not is in denial.
Not in denial at all.
Use of a teleprompter shows nothing, other than he's a politician.
It's terrible look. NO ONE does that. No wonder donors are closing their wallets.
Wake up and smell the coffee.
they are not closing their wallets
Do you think Barack Obama did that? Or George W Bush? Or Bill Clinton?
all of them used a teleprompter and I'm pretty sure the right mocked Obama's overuse of it.
There is a difference between reading and thinking on one's feet.
Yes, he might say airplanes are solar powered and would crash if the sun goes down.
Wait, that's the other guy thinking out loud.
I have been arguing with my son for months that Biden doesn’t have dementia and his physical limitations are not indicative of his mental acuity. And then the debate happened. Several friends of mine also had Biden doubters contact them after the debate. Over 50 million people watched the debate and an additional 30 million saw clips. That’s too many people who saw the debate and felt intense sadness and fear. I doubt we can unring that bell. Of course I will vote for him if he’s the nominee but there is no room for error with Trump and Project 2025 waiting in the wings.
Kathleen I was the same way. Yes—we cannot “unring that bell.”
Biden overprepared for the debate by filling his head with responses to Trump's lies. Hopefully, he will just call him out in the second debate and not worry so much about responding to all the lies. Trump is a master of bullshit. The current debate format is a no win situation unless the moderators insist on getting their questions answered and cutting off the mike otherwise.
This is exactly the reason the pro-democracy coalition needs a new candidate, Jennifer. I have thought of this exact line as a perfect comeback but Biden is not using it. He supposedly talked about golf again on Morning Joe! Voters are not going to care if Trump is lazy ESPECIALLY now that Biden is going to operate on a lighter schedule himself. Voters now have a choice between 2 arrogant men with different cognitive challenges (Trump much farther along in his decline) but Dems can right the ship
On the radio interview in question he said that he was the first black president. Do we know what he means...yes. He can still govern even when he mixes up Marcon and Mitterand or billions and millions but he cannot campaign.
It's mystifying why so many Democrats are fine with sticking with Biden even though it's likely he loses to Trump. Do they not understand the existential threat to our democracy that Trump represents? I don't think they do.
A relevant comment if the argument is Biden v Trump. It's not. It's Biden v Harris--or possibly some other Democrat.
Right now its biden v trump
What politician talks without a teleprompter! When Trump does it, he sounds like a lunatic. But all you hear after is crickets. Trump is a stupid crazy old fart and THAT
should be the only story.
Maybe it should be the only story, but it isn't. I love Joe Biden, I voted for him, I think he has been the best president of my lifetime (I'm 55), and now I think he should withdraw his candidacy for reelection.
Why? He had a bad debate. He has since been on the campaign trail and has delivered several speeches and he's okay. Why are you letting the conservative echo chamber decide. Trump, who slept and farted in court and has 34 felonies did not get as much bad press as Biden is getting for one lousy bad debate. If Biden drops out, Trump wins. Remember Hillary's emails!
Why do you think this is the ONLY evidence of Biden's mental decline?
Trump lies with every word. Literally PolitiFact rated every statement during the debate a lie.
If you are not tethered by reality, it's easy to "sound Presidential."
What's your point? We know that. That isn't news.
Bottom line is that 72% of Americans don't think Biden is fit to serve a second term. Those are the cards you're dealt. You can't fix that problem.
Outside of formal speeches, few politicians employ a teleprompter. Biden has been going into the private homes for fundraisers and uses a teleprompter when he talks. Which other politician on the planet does that? None.
Biden should sit down with a decent reported every week on TV. He should be asked lots of questions besides why he won't step down. He should use them for "fireside chats" to discuss what he has accomplished and what his administration hopes to achieve in the net four years. That is what the election is about. Trump has no idea how to answer any of the those questions except to lie and blame immigrants.
He has had several interviews and given ad hoc statements and no one cares. He is hosting NATO at the White House. Trump is sitting on his toilet tweeting, but Biden was sick and sounded bad during the debate. I swear, if FDR was running, all they would talk about is how he's in wheel chair, but that Hitler guy gives a good speech. So what if he wants to kill all the Jews. He doesn't really mean it. And he looks good in phoney uniform and he can walk.
If Biden made an antifascism speech, it would get covered everywhere. If he addressed the country from the Oval Office about increasing political violence, it would get attention. But he won't.
He has! He's given several speeches and interviews since then. Has the media covered them? No!
Seriously, I just Googled "Biden on fascism" and half the hits are about Genocide Joe bringing fascism to Palestine.
They always agree to interviews and include questions they want asked or they look over the reporters questions. They do that for every person being interviewed. They do it for movie stars and celebrities all the time
You're Trump supporter right?
"You're a Trump supporter right?"
You are deluded as the trump supporters you accuse people who disagree with you of being. I've read all of your comments to this point and you just parrot the campaign's lines and contemptuously ignore and dismiss any other perspective. Get outside your little bubble and look around. Not everyone sees the world as you do. In fact, most don't.
Whether Joe Biden stays in the race or not, is the best chance to win or not, or wins or loses isn't the point of my comment.
My point is that you and everyone else who refuses to take seriously the concerns of millions of Americans and accuses people who disagree with you are, in the long run, as dangerous as the MAGA crowd. The language you speak is the language of Republicans in 2011. It's the language of the true believer.
He didn't let anyone down.
I'm not aware of any reporting of this supposed cognitive test, that he took one or the results.
He told Stephanopoulos he takes one every day! Even if he took the person, woman, man, camera, tv test, that's not the same thing as a neurological test, which is what I think is needed after that debate performance.
It was part of his medical exam in February:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Health-Summary-2.28.pdf?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
That does not show he had a cognitive exam. The neurological exam showed he didn't have signs of having had a stroke, Parkinsons, etc. That's great. My brother in law died in February after suffering from Parkinson's (along with Parkinson's related dementia, for 18 years). It's awful and I'm thrilled the exam didn't show that.
But nowhere in the medical report you share does it mention cognitive testing, which goes far, far beyond what they tested.
I'm sorry Mr. Ogden that we didn't inform you immediately. Must have been an oversite.
His doctor, Kevin O'Connor, reported that the president underwent a complete neurology exam last February during this annual physical - along with exams by doctors from other specialities.
He must not of sent a memo out to the Bulwark and had it printed for everyone to see.
Will not be a circular firing squad. As Sarah Longwell constantly reminds us, the largest coalition in American politics is the anti-Trump coalition. This coalition will punish those politicians who are not team players in this crisis.
Yeah like all the media including NYT and WSJ isn't in the bag for Trump.
How Maga is this!
However, let's say you are correct: it just emphasizes the need to start work on a conservative party after the election and move towards a 3 party system: Democratic, MAGA and a new conservative party.
James Madison (from Feldman biography) originally wrote that" "the great object should be to combat the evil" of party". He was always cognizant of the balance of countervailing factions with a hope of reason winning. Eventually he relented to the party structure as a way to preserve the republic by acknowledging that constitutional structure by itself was not enough.
The new Conservative Party should have kicked into action in 2021 at the latest. It didn’t. Why the hell didn’t it?!?!
I haven't seen anything about Biden having taken a cognitive test 4 months ago. And in his interview with Stephanopolous, he said he hasn't taken one because "they" don't say he needs one. Can you share the info about the test he took?
He didn't. A few comments above, Sheri Smith shares the white house medical report from his February exam. He had neurological testing, which is not the same as cognitive testing.
A clear majority of voters (more than pre-debate) think he's not up to it. He is trailing in the polls. The Trump Biden polling for a long time has barely budged. What's the plan for changing that other than trying harder at the things you've already done and haven't worked?
Totally disagree that it would be “a circular firing squad.” Dems showed they could close ranks to beat Trump when Joe won the primary in 2020 due to his opponents unselfishly dropping out and endorsing him. Plus if Joe drops out now the Democratic convention and campaign would utterly dominate the news cycle. Trump would flail and seethe as nobody gives two shits about him or the one bit of news he could generate, a VP pick. By contrast if Biden stays the media will be watching him like a hawk and dissecting the slightest flubs with neurology experts on hot standby. Sorry but Biden is obviously NOT the best bet to beat Trump now.
It's a circular firing squad now. Biden needs to remove himself immediately as he's taking democracy with him if he doesn't.
If American democracy goes away it will be the people who voted for it. Not Biden, not the Democrats.
Absolute truth!
Richard, did you post something about a New York Times article over the weekend that you characterized as pro-Trump propaganda?
If it is all so cleared up, why was I watching through my fingers?
No cognitive test result will erase what we saw and heard with our own eyes and ears anyway. Joe Biden is not currently fit for office. He is not fit to run for re-election. The sooner we address the issue, the better off we will be. With someone else on the ticket, we have a chance of beating Trump. He is a nice man. But none of us can beat old age.
Hi Pam,
You are wrong. The reason why most of the journalists at The Bulwark want President Biden to suspend his re-election campaign is because Vice President Harris would have a better chance of beating Trump, even though that is, by no means, guaranteed.
There is a chance, however, that Trump is such a reviled figure by so many Americans, and the 2025 Fascist Manifesto so despised by the American people that, Joe Biden, should he not drop out of his race, is re-elected simply for these two reasons alone.
Kol Tuv,
David Hurwitz
Chicago, IL
Just an observation: 46 likes for this comment so far. I am not in agreement with it, and I know others are not as well, but as a group, we Never Trumpers are quite divided. I wonder how divided the entire pro-democracy coalition is. Has anyone seen any polling on this?
Not necessarily! And what cognitive test did he have? I read he's had none.
The man cannot string together a coherent set of sentences. He only speaks publicly reading from a teleprompter. He gets coached what to say.
No way can he serve another 4 years. It would be Weekend at Bernie's.
Even friendly leaders at the G7 were concerned about his not grasping what the discussions were about.
The Democratic Party can run someone better.
Biden said he did NOT have a cognitive test, ever.
What does this tell us?
Pride goeth...
The Bulwark didn't ask Biden the question. They are repeating excerpts from a nationally prominent interviewer. Anyone following the news read that exchange.
Biden still won't take a stand against fascism or even mention its name, so he's intentionally pulling his punches. How's being soft on MAGA working out for him?
Perhaps they are auditioning to be bought by the New York Time or WSJ.
Another Biden hit piece by Bill. Using a third party dropping out in favor of a major party candidate to a major candidate of a major party to drop out for an unknown is comparing apples to oranges. Your GOP/conservative pretzel logic is showing.
Bill is also comparing completely different electoral systems.
First-past-the-prime, the system with one round that requires a plurality or a majority to win, is well-known for creating polarization.
The two-round, multiparty elections are known to lead to coalition results that better represent the electoral will.
Many activists have been trying to change election systems in the US. Over the years, activists have narrowed their interest to one specific implementation: Ranked Choice Voting. Research suggests it would help us make better choices by making it easier to transition from legacy candidates who are time-tested to new faces.
I have never heard The Bulwark argue, defend or discuss Ranked Choice Voting in any serious way — as anything besides the pet project of a few billionaires like Gehl (who is obsessed with a bad idea, i.e. jungle primaries).
Actually Mona has covered it pretty well on Beg to Differ. I think JVL gave it a go in the Triad too.
Why isn't Bill informing himself from his colleagues?
Kristol has clearly, publicly separated himself from the post-2015 GOP and is ardently pro-democracy and anti-trump. Yet commenters on Morning Shots who disagree with him continue to accuse him of bad faith. It's tedious and unbecoming.
The problem is that I don't hear Bill making a case against trump, it's more like he's making a case against Biden. If he doesn't like Biden, fine. Instead of denigrating the President, he should be promoting the idea of whether or not Biden stays in the race, vote for the Democratic nominees. I hear crickets from him about that. He's a doom monger instead of someone promoting any ideas or solutions.
Are you aware of Kristol's activities since 2016? From Wikipedia:
Kristol vehemently opposed the nomination of Donald Trump as the Republican candidate for president in 2016. He has continued to express animosity towards Trump's domestic and foreign policy aims, and dismay at conservative Republicans who have accommodated themselves to the Trump administration.[54]
In January 2019, Kristol criticized President Trump's planned withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria and from Afghanistan.[55] On December 21, Kristol and a group calling itself Republicans for the Rule of Law released an ad encouraging viewers to call their Senators to demand top Trump officials be forced to testify in his impeachment trial.[56]
In March 2020, Kristol endorsed former U.S. vice president Joe Biden for President of the United States.[57] Kristol is founding director of Republican Voters Against Trump, a project of Defending Democracy Together, launched in May 2020.[58] On October 15, Kristol voted for the Democratic ticket. He stated "Just filled out my early absentee ballot in VA for Joe Biden & Kamala Harris, Mark Warner, and Jennifer Wexton. No regrets at all about this."[59]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Kristol
You need a case against trump?
No but it seems like others do. Dem voters, especially progressives, have a tradition of getting their panties in a bunch because they want a perfect candidate that checks all their boxes (that candidate doesn't exist)and either not voting or voting for someone else. They think they're teaching the Democratic Party a lesson. I can see that if Biden doesn't drop out, their panties will be in a bunch yet again. That's one of the things that got us trump in 2016.
I like bill but on this he is hiding the football. Biden can’t do or couldn’t have done anything that wouldn’t have him call for Biden to dropout. He could do backflips on stage and bill would say “see he is on drugs he gots to go”
The reason I can’t take bill seriously is because THERE IS NOTHING BIDEN TO CONVINCE HIM THAT HE SHOULDNT DROP OUT.
Biden could do back flips on stage and he wouldn’t change his perspective
I worry that at this point, Biden’s family is dug in and are going to take the country through a disaster. This is such a mess.
Take a step back: The nominee of a party, four months before an election, is confronting pundits calling him to step down.
Like, does it set a good precedent to allow the press to sabotage a democratic election? Like, do we have a constitutional system, or can anybody just meddle with how Presidential elections are run?
I think the Bulwark and other publications saw the election meddling Trump did in 2020, and they were like "Yeah, it could be fun to see if we can break elections too."
I am sorry, but this not about the media. Yes they have been pretty insane the last 10 days. But this is about Biden and him being able to run an effective campaign against a criminal Trump. I am not sure he can do that anymore. He was terrible at the debate and hasn’t shown any change since. He is only going to get older and worse between now and election day. Please see what people are talking on TikTok. He is losing young people and the middle of the road former republicans who don’t want to vote for trump.
It's funny you should mention TikTok. Please read this interview with a TikTok influencer:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/07/trump-tiktok-biden-influencer-00166616
In case clicking on the link is too hard here is what the TikTok influencer said: "I have actually been very surprised by what I am seeing on social media. I have not seen concern or really anti-Biden sentiment on my social media pages from normal people. I have only seen the concern and the ‘Biden can’t do this’ from the punditry circle and the Beltway. Even with normal people in my life, like I’ve messaged and texted with them, and I’m like, ‘Hey, how are you feeling?’ They’re kind of all like, ‘We knew Joe Biden was old, but I’d rather vote for Grandpa Democracy than Grandpa Dictator.’"
I did read the article and I am not convinced, because I am on tiktok and instagram and I can see for myself what people are talking. Trump has a cult. His cult will turn out in record numbers no matter what. Biden never did, but is now expecting people to have cult like fealty to him, which is quite off putting to people and will depress turnout. This is not good.
So you think in four months we can find a candidate that will build enough name recognition to fight a cult leader?
I mean I understand your concerns about Biden, but if you understand how difficult it will be for him, nothing you say makes me believe anybody else is better positioned than Biden.
Also TikTok's amplification algorithm is controlled by China which is why the US is trying to ban TikTok or move its HQ to the US.
You TikToc owned by China? The same China that bribed Trump with millions of dollars in patents given to his daughter his first month in office. That TicTic? There a billions of poor Chinese people getting paid to manipulate the US elections on TicToc every day.
I went to a Washington Nationals game this holiday weekend and I overheard at least 5 conversations about Biden’s fitness. Maybe it’s a DC thing but it’s not just limited to the media.
The debate was a national event and it's normal to talk about it.
But the question is: Does the debate change anything?
Most people think it doesn't: Everybody who was planning to vote for Biden already thought he was too old; everybody voting against him was not going to change.
What the media is saying is that the debate "completely changed everything" — and now have their hair on fire.
But what we forget is that it is an essential narrative device to say "IN A NEW ERA OF DANGER, THINGS WILL NEVER BE THE SAME" (cue movie voice over). The media is biased towards that kind of framing, and that's the framing that is unuseful.
Your analysis is missing the segment of the electorate that was not already committed to voting one way or the other, the less-engaged, squishy marginal voters who will be decisive.
Oh, like the independent voters who moved towards Biden after the debate in the NYT Sienna poll? Those squishy voters?
NYT conveniently buried that little nugget and it's not like the Bulwark has mentioned it either.
"Mr. Trump now leads Mr. Biden 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters nationally, a three-point swing toward the Republican from just a week earlier, before the debate. It is the largest lead Mr. Trump has recorded in a Times/Siena poll since 2015. Mr. Trump leads by even more among registered voters, 49 percent to 41 percent."
www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/poll-debate-biden-trump.html
Not age but ability
Do you think it might be all the bad publicity is making people concerned.
Its a response to an incident that unequivocally displayed the permanent cognative decline of the Democratic candidate
That's exactly it! You get the prize. Trump sits in court sleeping and farting for weeks, and then gets 3 convictions and NOT ONE ARTICLE SAYING HE SHOULD RESIGN. YES I'M YELLING. This is Hillary's emails all over again
Why are these Bulwark reporters joining the firing squad is what I want to know?
Trump should resign from what, his campaign? He had a primary. It was a Potemkin primary, but he was nominated by the Republican Party as the best representative of Republican values, and as far as I can tell, they're right, he is a perfect distillation of Republican values.
Look, I'm gonna vote Democrat no matter who, but can you let me be angry for a while? Biden's Administration screwed the pooch. I'm not JVL. I don't think Biden has done a great job. Fascism is on the rise. That's not a good sign. There's an illness in this country, and our President won't even name it. By God, there is so much material to work with, I could write 2 barnburner speeches a day that a normal person could probably edit into a sentence that would resonate with the electorate. JVL is out here talking about the illness of neoliberalism every day. But not Biden and the Democrats. They burned all their powder on infrastructure, which was very important, but notice that MAGA is taking credit for it all.
Oh well, I guess at least it's not people telling me I'm wrong for not putting all my faith in the Wonder Justice team of Jack Smith and Merrick Garland.
Also, why on earth are we still here 4 years later? This shit should have been resolved on Jan. 7th
But he is out there making speeches about things you're talking about. Your question should be why isn't the media covering it.
Editorials and opinion pieces aren't "meddling".
It's a normal part of political debate and has been since day one.
I agree.
I gave y’all a shot & bought a sub, but nah.
Seeya. Have fun over here in We Only Hold Our Nose For Dems When The Antichrist is Our Guy sandbox.
I’ll be enthusiastically voting for Joe & never coming here again. I can hear all of your insanity on msnbc if I decide I want to punch myself in the face some more.
So you're saying you are no different from the average Fox News viewer who just wants their personal world view confirmed.
I really disagree with you Bruce.
Personally, I'm open to thinking Biden should resign — as one option among many to consider.
What shocks me is the speed at which the Bulwark and other media decided it was the *only* solution.
Based on the debate in which *everything* Trump said (according to PolitiFact) was a lie, it is the media's job to deconstruct and prosecute the case that Trump used the debate platform to lie and "perform" what a President might look like.
That's my belief, and I don't think I'm crazy because this is the position held by most historians, and spcialists of authoritarians.
Regardless, I would be *okay* to be overruled. I would be *okay* to be wrong. If the media I was reading just gave me a better sense of their humility.
But no, it's certainty after certainty. Rather than ever admit "Gee we don't know what's going on, let's takr a moment" they feel like they constantly have to say something — and that reactive cycle leads to very poor analysis.
So no, Stephanie and I aren't disagreeing because we are as fragile as Fox News viewers — but because the Bulwark pundits are as fragile as Fox News viewers: They take personally that we disagree with their certainty, and feel like they need to dig in.
Oh and BTW, they criticize Biden for, in their view, digging in.
So much projection, it's crazy!
Agreed. It’s becoming an echo chamber - with the sole exception of the Michael Steele podcast.
He should go back to morning joe
Time is kind of critical here
I didn’t say that.
You did.
Partisans are gonna partisan. Sometimes that aligns with what is right, other times not so much.
I worry that the pundits and media are going to destroy Biden so he can't save the country. Joe Biden working one hour a day is 1000 times better than Trump and if everyone would stop bashing him he could get back up on the horse he fell off of and move forward in a dignified manner. I've been in Europe all summer and I can tell you NO ONE HERE wants Biden to drop out. They think Americans have lost their damned minds.
It's not Americans who have lost their minds, it's the chattering class — who probably was getting high while their classmates were learning about World War I and II and the rise of authoritarianism in Europe.
This is "Hillary Clinton's emails" all over again. And it was clear even at the time that her email servers were completely *irrelevant* to national security. Yet they obsessed over those more than the infinitely more dangerous Trump document case.
Here's what a prominent influencer is saying on Tik Tok:
"I have actually been very surprised by what I am seeing on social media. I have not seen concern or really anti-Biden sentiment on my social media pages from normal people. I have only seen the concern and the ‘Biden can’t do this’ from the punditry circle and the Beltway. Even with normal people in my life, like I’ve messaged and texted with them, and I’m like, ‘Hey, how are you feeling?’ They’re kind of all like, ‘We knew Joe Biden was old, but I’d rather vote for Grandpa Democracy than Grandpa Dictator.’"
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/07/trump-tiktok-biden-influencer-00166616
Carol, you 100% right. It's the conservative echo chamber and the complicit American media that won't let it drop. Nothing about Trump's sleeping and farting in court and 34 convictions and a rape charge. That's just Trump being Trump, but Biden had a bad night.
I think that horse kicked him in the head
Stop. He's doing fine.
And Trump's friends and family and supporters double down even when convicted of rape, bribery, interfering with election, sleeping in court and farting. I guess only Democratic candidates have to be perfect.
Maybe we can get Denzel Washington or Leonardo di Caprio to run for President. Would they be perfect enough?
So the lesson from France was not the centrists and leftists coming together to defeat the extremists.., it was that Biden needs to step down?? Less than 5 months before the election? For an unknown candidate who has not gone through a primary and been vetted nationally? Got it… I mean Desantis was loved by his party and then the country realized he didn’t have it… but I’m sure Harris or Whitmer or Shapiro or whoever won’t suffer the same fate. I mean what are we doing here? Biden was 81 before the debate and is 81 now… nothing materially changed with him but pundits and voters who participate in polling were scared by his performance which was horrendous. More scared than Trumps lies and his 2025 project? I doubt that… I also know there are millions and millions of Americans who didn’t see the debate and didn’t see anything about it. My wife is a doctor, she is busy as hell and doesn’t like politics. She didn’t watch a second of the debate but will be voting… she is not alone. I’m just really perplexed at how Trump and his unfitness to hold any office at all is now pushed way down the list of priorities to Biden is old and needs to step aside now… at the 11th hour. It’s complete and utter madness… it’s fanciful west wing stuff.
Christopher: If there was flooding in Europe today, The Bulwark would see this as proof that Biden needs to resign.
If asteroids hit the South Pacific: That will be a sign Biden needs to resign.
If Russia wins the Olympic games, that will be more vindication that Biden needs to resign.
Do you see? The goal is to pick the conclusion first (Biden needs to resign), and then you can mix and match it with any event. "Journalism" in the US, yay!
Exactly. Trump sleeping and farting in court and getting 34 convictions and not one pundit suggesting he should resign. Why? Because he won't. But Democrats are supposed to put on a hair shirt and apologise if their candidate is not perfect. They did it to Hilary and they're doing it to Biden. But Trump is exempt.
Easy answer to this question. The only thing that matters is a few persuadable voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, and PA. That is all that matters. So your wife who doesn't watch the debate is irrelevant.
What should be news but isn't is the Republican manipulation of the voter regulation and apparatus in MI and WI. From Secretary of Stae to poll watchers. They changed the law in MI that poll watchers can carry guns and challenge voters if they think there is fraud. That is just one law. I've written about it in several places but nothing in the mainstream media. I read about it online in a local MI paper.
And that - is what is ridiculous. The electoral college really needs to go. But changing it will be extremely difficult. What a conundrum we are in.
The only benefactor of this continuing democratic version of clown cars on fire is CFT. He has no reason to make "public" appearances (as opposed to MAGA events) where his own mumbles, stumbles, gaffes and absurdities would be on display. The Democrats are playing into his permanent MO, deflection. "Look at that fool over there! Keep your eyes on him and you will see him ....." "No need to look at me, just watch his every movement, listen to his every word, put his every step on a scale of shuffles, stumbles, needs to be guided."
Which Putin troll started us down this path of verbal self-immolation?
So, I saw the debate. I, as a donating Biden supporter have more to base my judgements and decisions on than your wife, although I'm sure she will certainly view the debate to make an intelligent assessment before making her decision to vote for the most consequential office in the world.
She should definitely make her decision after watching an elderly man with a bad cold, exhaustion, and a severe stutter be confronted by a firehouse of lies from a maniac who kept shouting when his mic was turned off. She won’t consider the past 3+ years of progress this man made with the most do-nothing congress in history.
It’s called being a politician. It’s why businessmen suck at politics. Politics is an art form and Joe has it down pat.
But yeah, she needs to be sure and watch the debate to make up her mind.
You're really not coping well if you're still talking about "the cold".
You're not coping if you think mentioning a cold is the deal breaker
It's just a weak excuse for his disaster. It also implies that when he wins it will be natural to expect him to be nonfunctional every time he gets a cold.
Every Presidrnt gets sick once in a while during his term. That's why they have a VP and surrogates and aids. They 're President's not Superman.
Its a stupid transparent lie
Stephanie, in no way shape or form am I impugning President Biden's accomplishments. He's been not only a very successful president, but also has had an admirable to great career as a "politician." My point is not about trump's behavior. He is a very damaged person who has somehow hypnotized half the population. How and why is a whole 'nuther deal. Christopher Jones' post said that his wife did not watch the debate and is voting. My point and his, I believe, is that she may be doing so without the whole picture of President Biden's state of being right now. Some jobs are not tolerant to a bad day or even a bad 90 minutes, cold or no cold. Stutter or no stutter. Think about an airline pilot's expected and constantly evaluated performance and the low tolerance for error. I think that I understand your point of view and it is kind of a bad deal being proposed for the POTUS, but it can be turned into a blazing success for everyone including him.
Good God, are you still talking about this? How about SCOTUS blowing up our democracy or Project 2025 or the losses the far right faced in France, Iran, England, or ANYthing else. If Biden stays in the race, can anyone here honestly tell me they will vote for Trump? Vote for Kennedy? Not vote?
What will happen will happen. The candidate will be the candidate. The more you guys talk about Biden needing to step down, the more you help Trump.
I've already contributed part of my hard-earned pension - and I have no other income - to Joe and only the people who support him.
Nobody here voted for Trump in 2016 or 2020 or will vote for him in 2024. The point is to recognize when you have a losing candidate and to act. North of 70% don't want Biden to run and this will surely translate to poor turnout among his lukewarm supporters.
I get where you are coming from. I also think we're coming off a lot of bad news days and people are losing their shit, but we don't have any say in the matter. The media loves a good fight - they're like a couple of Bubbas in a dive bar getting excited over a cat fight. They are not acting in good faith on this - just going for the clicks.
I'd say the bigger point is this is a lot of wish casting. No one has wanted either candidate and we knew that before the primaries started but did nothing for many of the same reasons - lack of name recognition, lack of big donors, lack of experience, lack of broad appeal. But reality is that tens of millions of Americans voted for these two old white guys to be their respective nominees. And we will get the chance to vote again in November.
You don't have to love Joe - it's about beating Trump. Right Sarah?
But I'm really sick and tired of a bunch of former Republicans who can't lower their standards enough to actually join the Democratic Party telling us who our nominee should be. Find your own candidate! "With only 4 months to go? It's not feasible." Yeah - welcome to our world.
Yes, it sucks that out of 330 million people, these are the two best we ended up with. But I don't need to love Joe, I simply HATE Trump. And I don't need Joe to last another 4 years, just the next 4 months.
I voted for Biden in the primary, but I would have voted for someone else if there was a viable alternative. The reason there was not an alternative is because it would have been political suicide for someone like a Whitmer to be seen as not being a team player in the effort to defeat Trump. Now it is Biden who is not being a team player. Mr. we-finally-beat-Medicare cannot win.
Your issue is with Whitmer then and not Biden.
And Biden did have a few running against him in primary.
Why is it Biden's fault that members of his party have feet of clay and lack backbone.
I don't have an issue with either of them on this matter. I simply wished to make the point that a vote in a primary should not be over-interpreted.
This is a perfect recap. 👏🏻
There are definitely people here who voted for trump in 2016 and 2020 -- and will again this year.
You seriously believe this?
Yes -- do you not read the comments?
Yes. But I've seen nothing but silliest troll now and then.
Not because of the Debate, which they probably didn't watch, but because the endless nattering on about from the media. Hey media let's for one day, talk about nothing else but Trump sleeping and farting in court.
The issues you mention should certainly be top of mind when people make their voting decisions. The problem is that Biden does not appear capable of forcefully making that case to the American people. Until the debate, I was in favor of Biden staying in the race. After it, I am not. If Biden stays in, I will vote for him, because of the issues you outline. But this race will come down to the margins. Low information swing voters will not turn out to support a candidate who 72% of the country (which necessarily involves a lot of Democrats) thinks does not have the mental capacity to handle the serious job of leading the free world. People burying their head in the sand about Biden's fitness helps Trump more than anything. Why has Trump been notably and uncharacteristically silent about Biden's mental state since the debate? Because he wants Biden to stay in the race and has enough cunning to be able to follow the tried and true maxim about not interrupting your enemy when he is making a mistake.
Low information voters didn't watch the debate. But they do listen to pundis ranting about Biden being senile. Frankly, Biden's record should be making the case.
In a logical world where people considered policy when deciding their vote, Biden's record should suffice. But that's not the world we live in. Low information voters are going to see endless social media clips of Biden saying he beat Medicare and talking about a young woman killed by a migrant when asked about abortion. If the only people who voted were engaged citizens who read publications like The Bulwark, I would not be worried. But that is not the reality we live in and we have to deal with the situation we have, not the one we wish we had.
And the problem is the list is longer than Kimberly listed. Now every interview has a gaffe--just like Trump. However it's harder to hide with Biden since he doesn't have a record of sounding like a moron like Trump does.
Before the debate the campaign was struggling to inform voters about all of his many accomplishments so I'm not sure that is the way. He has done a decent job of indicating some policies for the next 4 years of Biden/Harris. Nobody believes that they will be voting for a Biden administration.
51 million!
That’s a lot, considering that the last election was decided by 40,000 votes.
I've been thinking a lot about the fact that Biden doesn't seem capable of making the strong argument and on the surface, I get it. However, I would like to offer this - you know how everyone is saying no one is going to save us, it's up to us to save ourselves. Maybe WE need to be making the strong case - each of us here, the surrogates, other candidates, etc.
Face it, most people do NOT pay attention - if they did, we probably wouldn't be such a hot mess right now. But they do pay attention to their tribe - family, friends, co-workers, neighbors - others that they trust. So the more people we have saying vote for democracy not theocracy/autocracy, we could put up a turnip and still win.
What will happen will happen is pretty much the opposite of the strategy I will accept.
What helped Trump the most is the debate and everything Biden has done after it. There did not have to be a debate until October, the only reason there was is because that's what the Biden team chose. And the strategy failed terribly.
I'm French.
The result in France was expected (to me) and not a surprise.
My countrymen are predictable — because the news ecosystem in France is not as hollowed out as in the US. France has a solid investment in public news, and it's some people's job to report accurately.
The for-profit news ecosystem of the US is failing us.
As an example: You interpret these national events as vindicating your position on Biden. 🤦🏻♂️
As journalists, you are not able to walk and chew gum, and you could take inspiration from the media of other countries.
Absolutely. When I lived in France (French ex) many, many years ago, I was surprised how informed regular young people were. Everyone paid attention and everyone voted. The US corporate media (currently mostly owned by foreigners) has a vested interest in confusing the population. That's why schools in red states are kept to very low standards and education is now becoming Bible based. We don't want no critical thinking here!
Ad to that the purposeful dedication to sabotaging the election in favor of a mad man who will generate scandal and therefore clicks, which means dollars, is the only goal of American media.
Our "public news" is not exactly famous for being non partisan. It's basically a home for left to far left journalism majors.
I'm sure Bill will get a lot of hate for today's newsletter, so I just want to say that I agree with him that Biden should drop out and I appreciate that The Bulwark doesn't let itself get bullied by the comments section.
If unflappable consistency is a virtue, then I appreciate Joe Biden doesn't let himself get bullied by the pundit section.
Of course in modern democracies, being able to work with, and absorb ideas from people you disagree with is paramount.
I've been hearing Bill and AB talk about how Joe Biden is too old for years. It's not so much courage at this point, as it is a reflection of the hollowness of their thinking.
Because Trump is so much more mentally fit. I was impressed by his ability sleep and fart at the same time while sitting court.
Bill has been beating this drum for a long time now, and now that he's vindicated, everyone wants to cancel their subscriptions. It sucks to be right, I guess.
In what way is he vindicated?
Also, is being vindicated the important thing? I thought having and a keeping a democratic country was the goal.
We all have that goal. We just don't agree on how to keep it. In these comments, what you're seeing is a bunch of people who are going to vote blue no matter (count me among them) who arguing over whether Biden should stay or step aside. We are having these arguments because we aren't the people who are going to decide this election, but because lower info swing voters are. And I think the best way to get them to vote for the Democrat is to get another candidate, and I think it will be messy, but I am confident there is time to do it if Biden sees the writing on the wall, is honest with himself, and cooperates.
Bill is vindicated because he's been saying for months that Biden's age is a huge concern, it will be a big problem in the general election, and that Democrats would be wise to get another nominee. And he's been consistently denounced and told to shut up in these comments. But he was right then, and he's certainly not wrong after that debate. I think putting up a nominee in the general election who will be 86 before the end of his second term and has broadly confirmed for voters one of his greatest liabilities is bad politics, even madness, and potentially disastrous considering the present stakes. How can I make the case that someone should vote for Biden that's not "The other guy is worse?" I cannot make a positive case for the guy who showed up for that debate, knowing that the age question only goes in one direction, and it does not get better.
Thanks for time to reexplain your thoughts.
I am open to considering that the best thing for all of us is if Biden resigned.
What makes me suspicious is being told that this is the case without a shadow of a doubt.
What makes me frustrated is that the Bulwark is finding the weakest possible counterarguments — for instance, saying that the main argument is "don't trust your lying eyes" — to avoid having to substantially respond to real doubts that the readership they have cultivated have.
If all of us here are voting for Biden, and on TikTok there are influencers who say the same ( https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/07/07/trump-tiktok-biden-influencer-00166616); and some elected officials say that 80% of people they talk to — including Black women — are still supportive of Biden...
... does the Bulwark and the media have the measurement tools to determine whether the tide might not be what they think?
Just hear me out: If the data was not supporting the position that Biden should resign, how would we find it out? When are they double checking to see if their position just checks out?
It looks more like the Bulwark and other pundits made a reactive decision after the debate ("we'd still vote for Biden because we are the intelligentsia, but dumb voters are going to be had!") and they have absolutely no way of coming down from that tree. So their plan is to just keep hammering the message.
Is there anybody checkong the data? Is there any contingency if they decide they might be wrong?
No.
That's the hitch.
The media does not have a plan B because they've written this like a movie scenario — they aren't auditing the ecosystem tk analyze it.
Bill has been saying a lot more than Biden's age is a huge concern. Everyone agrees with that. He has also been saying that Biden should step aside. He has not been vindicated on that point. Neither Bill nor anyone else at the Bulwark has even addressed the counter arguments. They pretend that Lichtman, who is 10* for 10 on these matters, does not even exist.
No, I’ve not enjoyed or agreed with anything Bill has written. He’s old school Republican, a dinosaur. The Bulwark has suffered since he came on board and Charlie left.
I’ve debated leaving ever since.
Now, the debate is over.
Glad you enjoy it here. Have a nice day.
You still here?
And you response is emblematic of the problem. The Bulwark is creating their own information silo.
You guys. Biden CANNOT win. He CANNOT. He will lose. There is no possible way he can beat Trump (short of the hamburger from heaven). He was already losing part of his base. There is zero chance undecideds will swing toward him. It's already a done deal, no matter how annoying it is to hear it. And, the louder the drums the sooner Jill will realize it's over and we can move to Plan B - which can only be a better plan. It just is.
I agree with this. I'm surprised our fellow Bulwark readers are so angry at The Bulwark. Be angry at The Fates, the spineless GOP who make Trump possible, the Democratic party for being so bad at messaging, at the Bidens for refusing to see what we all see. But don't shoot the messengers.
Plan B may not really be better. But it won't be worse.
It's because we know this is nonsense. Biden is on track to win. Trump is the underdog. And if the Bulwark isn't willing to give us that bit of honesty, then what's the point of coming here?
Plan B will not be better. It will be worse; it's just a question of how much worse it will be.
Evidence of Biden being on track to win, please.
Keys to the White House. Biden currently turns nine keys true; no other Democrat turns more than seven, unless Biden resigns and Harris runs as incumbent (and eight are required to win).
Link for others: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House
How is Biden on track to win? I don't see evidence of that. I see only evidence that he is behind. If you dismiss polls, then ok, but what's your alternative evidence?
The Keys to the White House has long been a better predictor than the polls. When the polls said Hillary was a lock in 2016, the Keys said Trump was going to win. The Keys have correctly called every election except 2000, which nearly went the other way.
Biden turns nine keys true. You need eight true keys out of 13 to win. No other Democrat, except for Harris if Biden were to resign the presidency, would turn more than seven keys true.
Polls are garbage. We literally just got evidence of that again in France. The desperation for an interesting matchup has to end.
Wow thanks so much for teaching us about the Keys to the Whitehouse!!!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House
I have been harping on it since the debate.
It may well be worse.
Maybe? I mean, none of us know. We are all rightly concerned. All I care about is that we keep Trump and his Project 2025 cronies out of power. I’m not feeling confident in Biden’s ability to win. Maybe he’s still the best option but he still loses. But I am not feeling great about it.
Yet for all that, Lichtman, who is 10* for 10 on these matters, said post debate that keeping Biden is our best chance.
I don’t disagree with your conciliation that we won’t win. I disagree that someone has shown me option 2 is better.
Nice piece. Spot on.
Indeed, as articulated in the essay, this is not about electing Joe Biden, it's bout defeating Donald Trump.
Another part of the Stephanoopoulos interview that speaks volume is this:
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: And — did you ever watch the debate afterwards?
PRESIDENT BIDEN: I don’t think I did, no.
Well you should watch it because 50 million voters watched it and you were incoherent for almost 90 minutes. You may not have watched it but Russia, China, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, ISIS, etc., did and they keep pressing the rewind button.
National Security. It’s a thing.
I would probably still be supporting Biden if he had: Watched the f'ing debate. Recognized it for the sheer disaster it was. Come out in the following days with a sincere apology and acknowledgement of his performance. Told us how he would not f up so badly again. But it seems he is in full denial mode, which is very worrisome to me - people in denial do not make sound decisions. ( Mostly watched the debate! All this! And he didn't even watch it.)
Yes, I will vote for a potato over Trump but you can't govern if you can't win. Cheers!
Doesn't know it he watched it?!?!
Yeah, I'm not for Biden resigning, but that answer was so bad... 😞
But part of me feels that if the media were less hysterical and hostile, it could push back on important points.
What would it be like if we were: "Joe Biden is a good president and candidate, but some of his attitude is out of line. After failing a debate, he definitely needs to do a post-mortem, which one would think would naturally involve rewatching the debate. If he is not rewatching the debate, this tells us his staff don't think he can learn."
The Biden team can respond to criticism.
In fact for over a year, a running joke had been that the Biden administration often seems to follow what the Bulwark suggests, and the Bulwark love it.
Remember when Joe Biden called Asa Hutchinson to apologize publicly for the shade thrown at him? That was the kind of thing the media said Joe Biden should do, that he did.
But "end your campaign" is not something anybody can be responsive to!
We're all for defeating Trump. We all understand the stark contrast between the two. We all know that Trump is indeed an existential treat to democracy. I of course can't speak for anyone but myself with respect to voting but I suspect we all will vote against Trump, no matter who is on the ticket. It's not about convincing the Bulwark crowd. It's about convincing the electorate in the ever expanding swing state map, which now includes ME, MN, NM, NH, and VA on top of AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI and that's not going to happen with a man who at times has trouble stringing coherent sentences together. In 2020 Biden was up 10 points in July. He's now behind 6 against a convicted felon, insurrectionist, and a man liable of sexual assault. We don't need to over think this. 72% of registered voters think Biden doesn't have the capacity to serve as President. The reason the Biden campaign had the early debate was to turn the numbers around and stop the hemorrhaging. They failed. The overwhelming majority of voters - not pundits, not the press, not the elite - but the overwhelming majority of voters think Biden is too old and his public appearances validate that. You can't govern if you can't win and Biden has ZERO upside 120 days from election day. Time for a reboot - now.
Biden was not an incumbent in 2020. He did not have a record to sell.
In this election, people.are unhappy about inflation.
The main decider among voters who haven't made up their mind is "Who will save us from inflation?"
This is not about age. Right now, because Donald Trump has the aura of a "movie businessman" the easy pitch to a low information voter is "Trump can fix the economy because he understands business."
The pushback should not be about Biden's age (which is obvious to everyone and does not need discussion) but Biden's policies for the next term.
Why is inflation persisting? What is he going to do in a second term to vanquish it?
Biden's pitch should be "We had a pandemic which I saved you from. We also have inflation but we have the *lowest* inflation of the world, and in a second term I will vanquish that just like I did COVID-19. My opponent talks and talks and talks, but he cannot get anything done, remember infrastructure week?"
But Biden is hampered from prosecuting that case effectively when the media is in Hillary Clinton's emails mode.
Please remember the entire media did a mea culpa for the email server story — but they have learned apparently nothing.
When you're blaming "the media" you're losing.
Exactly
Oh. Ok.
Yeah that was scary
I don't believe for a second that he doesn't know if he watched it. What his answer demonstrates is that he is not mentally sharp or he would not have answered so nonsensically.
I think his answer demonstrates he didn't watch it because he's afraid to, and he didn't want to straight out admit he didn't watch it because he knew how bad that would sound. Hence the hedge that only made him sound foggy-brained.
After this last week, I'd believe it ... for a second (or two). But either way it's scary.
Sad to say, this is getting more Trumpy all the time, with Biden leaning on Hunter for political advice and calling in to Morning Joe. His campaign is no longer about *us*, it's about *I*.
Heaven forbid, the president talks to his son. Who the heck keeps saying Hunter has anything to do with the election?
I think Bryan means that Hunter has been brought aboard as an adviser...just like Ivanka and Jared and his qualifications are as "solid". The reporting is that he is in meetings although some reports have indicated it was just for the holiday week.
Personally I think if Hunter stays beyond the holiday weekend, this is a sign that POTUS could be getting incorrigible and trusted family members help him through these episodes. I hope I am wildly off base.
"More Trumpy all the time" nails it. Every time they pull one of these stunts my heart drops lower.
Respectfully, this is horseshit.
NYT is reporting that black voters who watched the debate increased their support for Biden.
Jay Kuo reports that since the debate the NYT has had 192 stories about how bad Biden did. I couldn't find any NYT stories about how bad Trump did.
People who relied on media coverage had their support of Biden dip.
"Adrianne Shropshire, the executive director of BlackPAC, said her group’s post-debate polling found that support for Mr. Biden among Black voters who watched the debate had increased. But among Black voters who did not watch the debate and consumed coverage of it, there was a dip in support."
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/08/us/politics/biden-trump-strategy.html?unlocked_article_code=1.5k0.Zhk4.9LazrzdFmdTJ&smid=url-share
Don't tell me a lot of this isn't media driven.
As Heather Cox Richardson reported in her 'Letters From An American' the other day, "Jennifer Schulze of Heartland Signal noted today that as of 8:00 this morning, the New York Times had published 192 pieces on Biden’s debate performance: 142 news articles and 50 opinion pieces. Trump was covered in 92 stories, about half of which were about the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling."
The Washington Post has been just as bad, including two catty op-eds over the weekend from Ruth Marcus and Kathleen Parker on 1) 'What we've learned from the cognitive test Biden refuses to take [Marcus] and 2) Biden has a 'women problem' [Parker] because his wife and VP are publicly supporting him and campaigning for him.
There's such a thing as reporting the news, and there's another such thing called driving the news. The media and the punditocracy continue chumming the water with 'should Biden stay or step aside' stories, then claim they have to 'report' on the sharks' feeding frenzy because it's 'newsworthy.'
Kathleen Parker was the woman who wrote about how Martha Ann Alito is a great partner for long walks around the neighborhood, so we should all ignore her bigotry and contempt for her husband's position.
Oh, good grief! I didn't know about that.
It is, to be sure. But Biden and the Democrats have opened the door to it to a large extent, such that they lost control of the narrative. There has to be some measure of accountability for that.
I will continue to argue and fight the good fight on behalf of the Dems as the side with the better ideas, for the biggest number of people, at this point. But they aren't doing us any favors with how they have handled the situation, and over time no less than now. The Biden age question always has been a ticking time bomb. They've had years to address it (e.g. giving Harris a more significant, and much more visible, role within the administration). The signs of Joe becoming increasingly frail have played out on our screens for months now, even the past year or two. The apparent surprise among Democratic leadership that this is blowing up in our face is essentially political malpractice. So many people saw it coming. There is no excuse for them not to have been better prepared, especially given the stakes of the upcoming election.
Yes, Joe Biden sitting in the White House being old and yet the most effective president we've had in a generation has surely opened the door to the mass hysteria about his age. For crying out loud.....
Don't shoot the messenger, Jane. It is an issue, it is real, and it isn't going away. We can either accept that and make lemonade out of the lemons or ignore it and let the situation take control of us. Those are our choices. Period. We are less than intellectually honest if we do not acknowledge that the Democratic Party has made some piss poor choices in how it has prepared for this moment. Getting snarky with me, and others here, doesn't change that.
Since you seem to have an issue with how some folks here express themselves, I'll challenge you to show us the "mass hysteria" going on. I went out yesterday, and what I saw was people doing everyday people things. No panic. No discord. Just living life. As for our little Bulwark bubble, we all realize that this is just a discussion in this group. None of us have power over the situation. It's those who do and did who have gotten us into the unwanted mess that has occurred. It's okay to say that out loud and acknowledge it, as we wait and wonder what will happen next, as party insiders and big money donors make their voices heard. Our role as Little People (aka voters) is simply to live with the outcome. And to discuss it respectfully.
Well said D and this fantasy that The Bulwark is a bunch of Republican's trolling us poor dumb democrats along by pretending to hate trump is insanity. This community was forged from a collective of right, left and middle. We've always had policy differences, as well we should. The art of compromise has been lost by those who believe their way, is the only way.
Sorry for all you who feel compelled to make every "legitimate" discussion regarding who has the best chance to beat trump, an attack on Joe. It's not, the problems/baggage he carries is real. It will impact the swing voters, the only thing that matters in this election.
See NYT, which has published over 192 articles on Biden's debate performance as of a few days ago; likewise, see Washington Post, which even today has a home page laden with 'should Biden stay or step aside' articles and commentary. The Bulwark crowd has been in a full-blown panic since the night of the debate. Hell, the NYT has even started up a 'syntax blog' where they analyze every word that Biden says in any interview or speech. Turn on CNN or MSNBC and see if you can go 5 minutes without a 'Biden stay or go' story.
If that's not mass hysteria, tell me what is?
And of course there's always the 'what next' matter that never gets addressed. How would the party replace a nominee who doesn't voluntarily withdraw. Under current DNC rules, that's virtually impossible. What happens if the nomination is opened up at the convention, which it would have to be? Do you think the far left/pro-Palestinian protesters won't turn the convention into a food fight? On national TV? We're about 120 days out from the election, give or take. How wouldn't replacing the nominee of the party at the 11th hour not come across as weak?
I'm not shooting the messenger, Deutschmeister, and I apologize if my comment came across that way. I'm being realistic about what would happen if, that's all. I not clutching my pearls to dust over a single debate performance that's been blown way out of all proportion.
In another comment I've acknowledged that the media have gone too far in overtalking the situation, devoting as much as 45 minutes of an hourlong show to it, times however many shows that essentially repeat all the same talking points. I'm still waiting for them to devote even a modest fraction of that time to Project 2025 and its ramifications, which is no less important in the bigger picture. I guess I don't see overcoverage as hysteria so much as a business model -- run with the big story, get as many viewers as possible, raise advertising rates, generate more profit. That's what businesses do, and the media outlets are businesses at heart. Probably the answer is some of both ideas, dissatisfying as that may be..
I have no personal preference on the Stay or Go question and simply hope that those who have much more inside information than we do will make the right call in the end. I'm receptive to both sides of the debate. But I'm pretty inflexible on the issue of Democratic Party guilt. I've seen no argument yet that convinces me that they were not horribly underprepared for the issue or the moment. Considering that we all have to live with the outcome, it does not give me encouragement that their leadership can be trusted beyond this all-hands-on-deck moment. I'm no longer a Republican voter, and for more reasons than just DJT. But the Democratic Party is turning me off as well. Where to go in the future? I'm warming to viable third- and even fourth-party options, and compromise-based governing coalitions, if we can get past this moment with our democracy still intact.
And how many more independent and educated suburban voters did he lose, along with libs like me who almost evacuated their bowels watching the Biden ship hit the iceberg last week? I suspect the Black Biden voters would transfer their loyalty to a Black woman running for Prez.
Just out of curiosity, Ed, if Biden has 'lost you' where do you intend on going? Not voting? Jumping over to RFKjr? What?
Kamala. She can reconstruct the Black, female, educated suburban, independent, and student coalition that elected and re-elected Barry. The progressives would get on board as well.
Sorry but this country is not ready to elect a woman. A non-white woman even less likely. I hate that this is the case but it is. Note the structure of the electoral college.
Keep Biden and they might get Kamala anyway WITHOUT all the emotional over-reaction we see now.
I suppose some of those who prefer Kamala could hope Joe kicks in time to get her on the ballot in all the states, but I can't relate to that level of darkness and real realpolitik. And I wouldn't want to know anyone who does.
OK, but if Biden remains the nominee as he's said repeatedly he will? Kamala Harris isn't trying to push Biden out. Your choice in November remains binary: Biden or Trump.
And FTR, this educated, moderate suburban voter hasn't caved into panicked pearl clutching.
And if Biden stays the nominee?
We lose. Bye-bye parts of the suburban and independents, and do you really envision Biden posters in dorm rooms?
We don't know that about suburban and independents.
But I was wondering what you will do if Biden stays the nominee.
Not even close to a given. Lichtman who is 10* for 10 post-debate says Biden has the best chance of winning.
I think subscribers here will vote for whomever the Democrats put forward but I myself am angry that I have to rely on the incompetent Democrats once again to delay the death of the republic. This coalition is needed right now but it is difficult for all of us.
The way is risky regardless of the decision (Joe or Next Generation) so it is natural for people to discuss options to cope with our fears.
I have no concerns about Biden finishing his term.
I have no illusions that Biden will complete a second term.
Someone needs to be preparing and vetting Harris' answer with Joe to a question about the 25th Amendment before the VP debate.
I would remind you that it's the 'incompetent Democrats' who've stayed true to the Constitution, the rule of law, and have upheld our institutional norms while the other party caved to a D-list reality TV show host. But please feel free to be angry that a bunch of' incompetents' have to ride to the rescue. Again.
I don't forget! I am sad and angry that I have to rely on this one group who does not consistently understand how to speak to large portions of the electorate.
You mean, other than the 81M people who voted for Biden in 2020. Other than them, *crickets*, huh?
How about a black woman running for VP? It's a TEAM we're voting for.
Biden should step aside this week. He's done a very good job. In the ABC interview he cited his accomplishments as a reason he should be reelected. The problem? He's 82 years old. He's in obvious decline. This will not improve. The chances of his being able to complete a four year term are even at best.
A large majority of Americans do not like their choice of Trump or Biden. This will lead to many people skipping the Presidential ballot line, or worse, staying home. Give people another choice. Make it Harris, Whitmer or Shapiro versus Trump. Do that and Trump will lose. AND THAT IS WHAT THIS ELECTION IS ALL ABOUT.
The problem with Biden stepping aside is that realistically there is not a hood path to a substitute candidate. A woman cannot win. I wish it weren’t true but it just is. Maybe some day. But not now.
I think the only way it can happen this week is if he announces while at a NATO meeting for 75th anniversary. I guess he could announce that upon strengthening NATO he is passing baton for next 4 years and having Harris at all meetings this week (whether she is nominee or not she will likely be in next administration and be helpful in transition). Then this week could be a wonderful good bye tour for Joe. However, I agree with AB that the resignation would most likely be next week as sands are still shifting.
The Democratic ticket loses nothing if Harris takes the baton and keeps the cabinet, with Biden as an official or unofficial advisor. He basically becomes a coach on the team… he doesn’t have to worry about public appearances and can focus entirely on policy and strategy. Harris is a woman and black/south Asian, so she’s a member of critical voting blocs. And she will shred Trump in the second debate.
Except polls and polls and polls say that Kamala would lose the election as the lead candidate.
That's why one of the first GOP strategies (used plentifully during the GOP primary) was to say "A vote for Biden is a vote for President Harris."
That's because Biden has always been the bulwark against more progressive "far left" candidates.
It would be fun to see the former prosecutor take him on in the debate….
But keep Biden who probably has a better chance of winning, and if he cannot complete his term, you get Harris anyway. That would be far preferable to the chaos created by preemptively replacing Biden.
Enough…enough. The Bulwark has entered the world of the fantastical. Most of the Bulwark writers have campaign experience and should know that less than 4 months is not adequate time to field another candidate. If you bang on this much longer, I am going to cancel my subscription and donate it to the Biden campaign.
The most telling part of Bill's entire opinion is where his friend says that he's coming around to Bill's "long held view" that Biden needs to go. So, no matter what Biden's done in the past, Bill has never wanted him. Notice he doesn't say who he does want. Me thinks he wants Nikki to switch parties and do what he clearly wants - an ultra-conservative just like him.
There's a whiff of the ad hominem argument there. The argument remains the same, good or bad, regardless of who propounds it, and regardless of who has "come around" to it.
I’m doing it now. Done with Bulwark and all these guys. Turns out, GOP are disingenuous, even when they’re Never Trumpers.
I knew that, but was sucked in by the appearance of common cause. Their enemy is my enemy.
But they can’t not be what they are, and that’s why I became a Democrat in the first place.
The common cause is preserving liberal democracy in America.
Check out Politicususa and Daily Kos - both liberal sites (and yeah, they occasionally have crap). They have much better political analysis in many of their articles than Bill's. And they're behind Biden, pointing out the myriad of hits that he's getting.
I also like Aaron Rupar from Public Notice.
He would do quantitative analyses of Twitter for Vox, and so he has acquired the journalistic tools to perceive the veil of social media's warping mirror.
He's one of the few media reporters who actually is reporting in part on the craziness of Biden being called to resign.
Honestly this is a great idea. Might be right there with you shortly. Getting so bored with the Bulwark’s crap lately. There’s other stuff going on that they could be talking about but instead it’s the 4,000th article about Biden dropping out.
And when he decides not to and proves Kristol’s smug confidence wrong? The Bulwark will write another couple thousand articles lamenting how he should have dropped out in July.
To all the commenters hating on the Bulwark for simply providing their opinion, remember:
1) I'm pretty sure that all Bulwark writers and analysts will be voting in November for whoever is NOT Donald Trump, whether it's Biden or a ham sandwich. So stop making it sound like "Biden's not up to the job" is equivalent to "I'm voting for Trump!" It makes it seem like you're not actually paying attention.
2) Following on point 1, the vast majority of Bulwark readers and writers are all ANTI-TRUMP. That makes us allies. If you can't be allies with people that you sometimes disagree with, then just cancel your subscription and move on. When you stop flooding the zone with your pro-Joe hysteria, it will be easier for me to find the substantive content that Bulwark readers provide here in the comments -- even the substantive pro-Joe ones.
3) Finally, if you're so virulently (dare I say violently?) pro-Joe, then it probably means you've never spent any time around an elderly person who is going through a significant cognitive decline. (I've mentioned in other comments watching my father go through this when he was the same age as Joe is now.) Joe Biden is elderly, and it's now painfully obvious that a decline has begun. Even if Joe wins (which I believe is not very likely at this point -- not because of the Bulwark, but because of low-info voters in swing states) we may be heading for an even worse crisis in a year or two, when Joe might not be capable of governing. Given the performance of Biden's staff and family so far (hiding Biden's decline from us), we could be headed for a Diane Feinstein moment in the next four years, except with the stakes infinitely higher.
In conclusion: I will vote for the ham sandwich before I vote for Trump. If you're reading this, I assume you would too. Forgive me for being blunt, but you're embarrassing yourself with all the hand-waving and hysterics in response to legitimate questions about whether Joe is the best way forward for the Democratic Party. And I am not -- and have never been -- a Republican.
I’m not concerned about a Feinstein moment within the next four years. I’m concerned about a Feinstein moment within the next four days. And in fact the Feinstein moment is starting right now
That is hyperbolic. Biden isn't anywhere close. Tim Miller counted only twenty bad days in the last 3.5 years.
For simply providing their opinion? They pride themselves on basing their opinions upon objective analysis, but almost as if they had a meeting about it, they have steadfastly refused to even address the counter-arguments. The Bulwark's only argument is that maybe Joe might become incapable of governing and then what. That is their only argument, but the answer is easy. Harris steps in. The Bulwark recommends replacing Biden with Harris now in spite of all the accompanying chaos it will create.
Meanwhile there are many arguments for keeping Biden. Most prominent is the post-debate analysis from Lichtman who has been 10* for 10 in calling the winner of presidential elections. The Bulwark steadfastly refuses to even address argument contrary to their per-determined position. Nothing objective about that.
Most of the hysteria is from the replace Biden camp. It is a position born of an emotional overreaction to the debate. No one hid anything from us. Phillips ran his primary race on amplifying Biden's condition, even though according to Tim Miller, there have only been twenty "bad days" in the last 3.5 years.
Some thoughts, connecting a few dots ...
1) The analogies to Iran and France this morning are meant to be encouraging, I know, but essentially exist in a vacuum. One, 98 percent of the electorate here does not care what happened there, and a large portion thereof probably didn't put their devices down long enough over the weekend to hear or read about what happened there, much less digest the ramifications. Most Americans are americacentric and look little past their own bottom line. Two, the governing structure of France, as with many other European nations, is grounded in multiple parties and coalition-building, unlike here, where you have essentially three choices: Republican, Democrat, or Other -- make that two choices, since Other will not get enough votes to matter. Their system is not our system, and vice-versa.
2) There aren't enough Republicans left to build a coalition of the willing to undermine Trump on the right, and none -- zip, zilch, zero -- will abandon him at this point within their movement. We are happy to see that the Democrats at least are willing to have honest discussions about whether or not their candidate at the top of the ticket should be replaced. But at this time and in this place it is cold comfort, because those inside the GOPMAGA bubble aren't hearing the message, much less are they receptive to it. Our morality is intact, and we applaud ourselves for it. Is that the sound of one hand clapping?
3) Regrettably, Joe Biden has moved firmly into the category of "anything you say or do can and will be used against you." The biggest casualty of the debate is that he lost the benefit of the doubt. Now everybody is scrutinizing his every word, every physical move, every gesture, every flub, and seeing it as a sign that he must go rather than finding reasons as to why he should stay. In line with that, for reasons of political pragmatism, the left increasingly is moving into eat-their-own mode, a game that Biden cannot win as he emerges either greatly weakened or pushed aside. Again, it's good that they are willing to hold their candidates to a higher level of scrutiny when the right long since abandoned any premise of it. But in real time it is becoming a snowball rolling downhill and gaining momentum, as GOPMAGA gleefully watches in silence, unwilling to take the attention off of the spectacle, allowing its opposition to implode in the mother of all unforced errors. There is no positive spin to put on this. It is a worst-case scenario. The main hope now is that, all politics being cyclical, there is enough time until November for the worm to turn again -- presuming the Democrats make the right call on the Joe issue -- and for them to regain momentum, for DJT to stumble and fall badly, or both. Online gambling sites are waiting for you to place your wager on that, if you are so inclined.
4) "One Democratic House member told The Bulwark that of his interactions with voters over the July 4th break, 80 percent wanted Biden to stick it out while 20 percent wanted him to go. But the more important element, the member added, was who made up the 80 percent: 'Black women are strongest for Joe.' That’s the bedrock constituency of the party."
Huh? I don't have exact statistics, but memory tells me that Blacks make up about 12 percent of the American population. Split roughly in half, that means Black women are about six to seven percent. How is that the "bedrock constituency"? In a close election, yes, that matters. But when one utilizes terms like "bedrock constituency," I'm thinking of much larger groups (e.g. labor). Have we given up on those important entities, or do we merely take them for granted, as we go down the diverse voices of the political left? We might be missing the forest for the trees at that point.
From what I've seen lately, Black women are stoked about Kamala. And regardless of what union COPE committees do and say, I would say that individual union members are definitely hearing that Biden's too old. How could they not be? Myself, I will vote for anyone who is "D" on the ballot.
Lots of good points and articulation, but you lost me with your conclusion. I don't understand what you mean by "take them for granted" — it sounds like a revanchist talking point.
As for what is meant by "bedrock constituency" is that there are some constituencies that can be *inspired* to vote (young people, busy people) and others that tend to vote very reliably no matter what (senior citizens, Black women).
These terms don't mean much. The more important point in what you said is that yes, most voters already felt Joe was way too old. They have "priced" this in their decision, and the "shock" of his performance in the debate is a bit performative.
Nobody in DC is saying "the debate makes me think Biden can't do the job" but everybody is saying "the debates make me concerned about what *voters* will think." It's second order effects!
I meant "take them for granted" in the sense that, while we often acknowledge that the Democratic "base" is very diverse, some groups seem to be feeling a bit ignored or misrepresented by the messaging -- Blacks to some extent, Hispanics (who are seen by some as one homogeneous group more than a patchwork quilt of different people, of differing backgrounds), labor and the traditional "working stiff," the far left with its agenda, and so on. The accusations may or may not be true to some extent or another, and it is hard to give equal time to everybody. But to the extent that perception becomes reality in the mind, the Democratic Party has a lot of work to do 1) to keep its core onboard when the GOP increasingly is trying to erode the historical barriers and poach voters, and 2) to keep supporters engaged enough to actually show up at the polls in November. My greatest fear remains not that MAGA will grow at this point, rather that too many liberals will sit out the election due to dissatisfaction or disinterest (no strong personal passion) and essentially throw a close election to the right. We saw how that worked out in 2016. Best not to go there again.