Will Trump’s Social Media Behavior Cost Him in Court?
Defiance could dash his re-election hopes.
“IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU.” That’s what Donald Trump posted Friday afternoon on Truth Social.
Uh-oh. Experts immediately suggested that a few more posts like that could land a fellow in contempt of court for defiance of an order. Less than 24 hours earlier, U.S. Magistrate Judge Moxila Upadhyaya, who handled the preliminary proceedings in the new Trump case, had specifically warned him not to try to influence future jurors or to threaten or retaliate against anyone for providing information against him.
Consider how the former president’s post could backfire. The last thing he wants before the 2024 election is a trial of Special Counsel Jack Smith’s latest indictment, “the big one” alleging that he conspired to overturn the 2020 election.
Defendant Trump may soon learn not to antagonize the judges who could give him a speedier trial than he hopes for.
Trump’s threatening post is a BFD to courts. There is no accountability to law without criminal trials at which witnesses testify and jurors issue verdicts free of fear.
Mobsters know that, so they aim to intimidate. If you need a cinematic illustration, recall the words of Robert DeNiro’s Al Capone in the 1987 Brian De Palma film The Untouchables:
Somebody messes with me, I’m gonna mess with him. . . . Do you understand? Now, I have done nothing to hurt these people, but they’re angered of me, so what do they do, doctor up some income tax, for which they got no case. . . . I pray to God that if I ever had a grievance I would have just a little more self-respect. I’ll tell you one more thing: You got an all-out prize fight, you wait till the fight’s over, one guy’s left standing, and that’s how you know who won.
Makes you wonder who will play Trump in the movie.
Late Friday, Special Counsel Smith quoted Trump’s Truth Social post in a new legal motion for a protective order. Smith asked Judge Tanya Chutkan, the no-nonsense jurist assigned to Trump’s 2020 election/January 6th-related case, to limit his ability to share the discovery material that Smith will soon give to Trump’s lawyers.
Smith wrote: “If the defendant were to begin issuing public posts using details . . . obtained in discovery here, it could have a harmful chilling effect on witnesses or adversely affect the fair administration of justice in this case.”
Predictably, after Jack Smith’s filing late Friday afternoon, an anonymous Trump spokesperson denied that Trump’s post had anything to do with his court case. “The Truth post . . . was in response to the RINO, China-loving, dishonest special interest groups and super PACs, like the ones funded by the Koch brothers and the Club for No Growth.”
Now there’s a denial so lame it needs four crutches to ambulate.
Unfooled was Judge Chutkan. On Saturday, she issued a temporary order blocking Trump “from going public with potential trial evidence shared with his lawyers in an upcoming election fraud case after prosecutors cited his history of social media tirades,” as the New York Daily News put it.
Judge Chutkan gave Trump until 5 p.m. Monday to respond before she issues a final order. On Saturday, when his lawyers asked for more time, the judge refused.
Her penchant for speed bodes well for an early trial date. She will set a date on August 28.
By character, Trump seems compelled to test rules that constrain him and then to cross lines if he is not stopped. True to form, on Saturday, after Judge Chutkan’s order, he posted yet another social media attack that smacked of violating the magistrate judge’s August 3 order.
This post appeared to retaliate against potential witness and former Vice President Mike Pence. The message referred to Pence’s apparent testimony, recounted in the August 1 indictment, that on January 1, 2021, he told Trump that a vice president lacked authority to reject the votes of presidential electors.
At the time, Trump responded, according to the indictment, “You’re too honest.” Now that Trump knows that Pence has given this testimony that so devastatingly reveals Trump’s corrupt intent, a key element to the crimes, Trump retaliates by attacking Pence as “delusional” and “not a very good person.” This post has every appearance of the kind of incitement and retaliation Trump was warned to steer clear of.
Strike Two.
With defendants who repeat defiant acts, it’s typical for courts to incrementally escalate from warnings to sanctions. Trump has learned that he will probably get three strikes before truly serious consequences accrue. (Judge Chutkan could surprise him.)
The former president is likely to use every strike before he stands down. He’ll try to extend things as long as possible because his legal strategy and his political strategy are aligned: Getting re-elected president is his holy grail for avoiding accountability. He knows that his legal defenses are, at best, swimming upstream. But if he returns to the White House, he can have his attorney general end the prosecutions (along with the rule of law in America).
But having only one escape route out of Dodge is something experienced crooks avoid. You could get so focused on it that you’re blind to the sheriff who has you under surveillance.
Judge Chutkan has broad discretion over Trump’s D.C. trial date. Anger her and you add incentive to set a trial as early as is consistent with the time Trump’s lawyers need to adequately prepare.
If a trial occurs in the spring of 2024, the prospects for a pre-election conviction are strong. A Thursday Reuters-Ipsos poll told us that if a conviction occurs, 45 percent of Republicans would not vote for him, compared to 35 percent who would.
Tough getting back into the Oval Office with those numbers.
So, Mr. Trump, with respect to more threatening posts, consider taking some time off social media. Otherwise, it might be you—and not just an autotuned collection of your video clips—singing, “I fought the law and the law won.”
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