The Focus Group podcast is BACK, with a twist: We're releasing The Bulwark's first-ever poll of Republican primary voters where we're trying to figure out just how big the "Always Trump," "Maybe Trump," and "Never Trump" buckets are among Republican primary voters. For that, we brought in Republican pollster Whit Ayres, who joins Sarah to stack our poll results up against the focus groups we've done since the election.
Links:
Poll by The Bulwark and North Star Opinion Research of Republican Primary VotersPoll Toplines from Whit Ayres
Don’t miss an episode of this season of The Focus Group with Sarah Longwell—subscribe on Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts today.
Sarah, I really appreciate you and your team talking to so many Trump supporters. I really enjoy listening to your podcast. I feel like they say the same things my Trump supporting relatives say.
Your podcast gives me insight without the uncomfortable political discussions at holiday gatherings.
The problem with not thinking DeSantis is not an existential threat to democracy is two-fold: (1) Trump was an existential threat from day one, but no one wanted to believe it and found ways to (a) make him a joke before he was elected and (b) hoping he would 'pivot' into a real president, who cared about the people and the Constitution that was enacted to protect; (c) then he did not one, but three things that actually warranted impeachment. The last of which is the promotion of the armed insurrection which resulted in death for five LAW ENFORCEMENT officers (i do not exclude Ashley Babbitt - but she was one of the insurrectionists not only trying to overthrow democracy and government, but by doing so violently, threatening the lives of law enforcement officers. Regardless, her death is unacceptable as well not because of law enforcement doing their job, but because of all the rhetoric and encouragement spouted by Trump. He is responsible for all of it. Him and his cronies who thought they had money and power enough to protect themselves from the breakdown of our democracy. The knew 99% of our population would lose. But they believed they would gain.
Now, because Ron DeSantis hasn't had the opportunity to encourage an insurrection and overthrow all the people's power in our government, they want to believe the same thing about him as they had about Trump: he's not THAT dangerous, even though we didn't pick up on it before when it was staring us right in our faces. But here's the thing: DeSantis has been eroding democracy in his own state all along. Just like Trump showed us his true colors of being an objectively horrible human being actively taking advantage of anyone and anything in order to advance himself, DeSantis is the 'lady in waiting' - In the meantime enacting laws and stirring hatefulness until he gets the ultimate power of the Presidency. Then the full-time wreckage of our democracy will begin. He has learned from the mistakes of Trump and is intelligent enough to maneuver around them.
I really got a lot out of this: what an apt intermingling of the quantitative and qualitative . As tragic as I find their views, I appreciated the voices you present here. I suppose it’s no surprise that rank and file American voters are so much easier to listen to than the fascist and semi fascist ravings of fox etc
Trump doesnt have to go 3rd party to undermine GOP in 24. All he has to do is say that he and the American people were cheated again.
I could care less about poolls!
Re the elected Republicans who are waiting for Trump to die: they know they can't fully state their wish, that 45 and all who sail him will eat it.
Its true DeSantis has not yet started an insurrection. However, there is nothing in the historical context of conservatism that he is currently practicing and enacting. Banning books, banning thought, mandating private business practices, lying about COVID (his MM's are not OK), the list goes on are not conservative policies. He won by such a landslide because the D's in Florida do not know how to put up a fight. In a TV world Aaron Sorkin would have had him humiliated and not by contrasting him to liberals but by making him a world war 2 dictator wannabe.
Listening to these always Trumpers... it's almost as though... ALMOST as though Hillary was right with the deplorable tag...
Hearing the comments from the focus group people in this podcast gave me an ulcer. Good Lord.
It scares me to think these people worshipping Donald Trump have no clue what a huckster he is. I guess he is as good at conning people as they say. Or else these people are the most clueless morons that have ever graced the Earth.
YAY!!!! SEASON THREE!!!!
Really informative Focus Group episode with Whit & hope you have him on again.
It's amazing, perhaps naively, that 85% of Republican voters are still okay with a mendacious, racist, pyschopath for president. After watching him as president for 4 years, then orchestrating a coup and they're like "okay, he does some bad things, but he's a Republican." I knew both "yellow dog" Democrats and Republicans existed, I just had no idea that 85% of Republican voters would vote for a yellow dog as long as it was on the Republican ticket (BTW, nothing against yellow dogs I have a wonderful, yellow lab).
I consider myself a really open person when it comes to listening and giving people the benefit of the doubt regarding their opinions being different than mine. But I gotta say, I about lost my mind listening to these Focus Group verbatims. I found myself starting to think like JVL about them, which means I’m really in trouble. 😂😂😂
Glad to see you back, Sarah! Really enjoy the Focus Group podcast.
In the survey they separated likely voters who value Trump over the GOP and likely voters who value the GOP over Trump. I’d be very curious to know how each of those groups define “GOP”. I’d be willing to bet the answers would vary wildly.
Excellent pod!!! I have so many thoughts and questions that I’ll probably have to listen to it again but I just wanted to thank you personally for sharing this with us! An unexpected Focus Group is like a surprise gift and an unexpected Focus Group pod with exclusive survey results is like if that gift was Broadway tickets to Hamilton.
I sincerely hope your mild Focus Group addiction isn’t interfering too much with your mental health but I hope you know how much we all appreciate your hard work and all the great insights. Thank You!
This one alone is worth the price of a Bulwark subscription. Thanks Sarah!
Love this show!!! So glad you are back!!!
I don’t care about the Republican Party either. I want to see the Republican Party implode and lose for a couple cycles. It’s the only way it can rebuild legitimately.
Didn’t DeSantis redraw the maps?
Great discussion. I’m always amazed how you find these people to talk. I’m also amazed at the level of pure ignorance and stupidity of so many people on the record.
Around the 28:00-mark of this episode, I was literally throwing things across the room. Jesus *Christ*, some of these drooling, braindead MAGAchuds. Listening to their deluded, willfully-ignorant insanity would make St. Francis of Assisi want to kick babies.
Yes. I have given up trying to convert those people, some of whom are in my family. I find it more productive to convince Democrats to vote, especially in non-presidential election years.
Non-voting Democrats are my pet peeve. I spend my time and money supporting GOTV organizations.
They all excuse Trump inflaming his mob against his VP by tweet, as they literally hunted Pence for execution in our Capitol. I don't care how aligned I am with an incumbent's policies or approach; if they sink to that level, I'm out. Because apparently, unlike the R base, I have an ounce of patriotism. They tolerate purposely trying to thwart constitutional order and dereliction of basic national duty from the oval office. He's done nothing but double down since, insisting articles of our constitution should be trashed in order he be "reinstalled". I get the always-Trumpers are too brainwashed to care, but how does any other so-called conservative support him in a general election if (when, would be my guess) he's nominated again. Will THAT be the moment conservatives who dislike his "attitude" or "style" finally wake up? I see zero signs from these focus groups. No one mentions Jan 6th and his embarrassing self-serving lies about 2020 making us look like a backwater on the world stage. The carnage he directly caused and encouraged. Fake electors, the call to Georgia asking for 11k votes, his three hour dereliction of duty as people were maimed and killed or ended up in jail, for him --again, while publicly inflaming them(!!) Wtf does it take for R's to admit he disqualified himself. I would do so in a heartbeat were he my incumbent candidate. The big lesson for me since 2020 has been how utterly unconcerned with the country the R party revealed themselves to be in the wake of Trump, to the point they'll assist him or stand by if/when he rises to power again.
This was so excellent. I wish I had influence. Of course, still having a panic attack after listening to those trump-or-die people, some of which are in my family.
Yeah, they *sound* so 'normal, don't they? Their words are from some other reality but in most ways not related to politics, they probably act like regular people.
DeSantis must go head to head with Trump in order to have any chance in 2024. Regardless of who wins that battle, how can it not destroy them both with swing voters? None will be able to look presidential while trashing each other. Even if DeSantis wanted to look presidential, Trump won't allow that to stick. Of course, Trump trashed his opponents in 2016 too but that's when the swing voters could rationalize their Trump-love by just saying that it was just his abrasive character or they love him because he's a good businessman. I don't see any of that flying in 2024.
This is why DeSantis is stoking the culture wars as much as possible. He doesn't need to look 'presidential'; he just needs to look like he'll save the country from the evil woke monsters.
Agree that's where he seems to be planting his flag but I doubt that's going to make him a winner. He's evidently been able to rev up Floridians on this stuff but does the rest of the country really follow FL?
When one is in love, one’s sees what one wants to see. Unless one is hurt personally by the beloved. Most of these Republicans in the South had Parents-grandparents who were Democrats. It isn’t like loyalty to their favorite SEC team.
Great job as always, Sarah. Let me echo Debbie Long's comment a couple hours ago. It's great to see The Focus Group is back!
Sarah: can we refer to the 28% Always Trump bloc of voters as “Trump 5 Eva” going forward???
Lol! Too bad Cohen, Flynn and Manafort won’t be in the next season because they died going over the infinity pool :(
YAY!! SO HAPPY FOCUS GROUP IS BACK!!
If these people think independents like I am will vote for DeSantis because he is more palatable than Trump, then they cannot comprehend how many reject not only Trump but those who supported Trump, especially after the insurrection. They don't need to offer Trump-lite to win my vote. They need to repent, disavow the lies, and change course to win my vote. Obviously, the latter won't happen. It's a shame, because I believe Americans are a very forgiving people.
Instead, the U.S. is going to be politically unstable for the foreseeable future. I'm mad as hell about it. I believe these voters need to be held accountable, not just those whom they elect.
I have heard Rick Wilson mention that there has been significant changes in the Florida Repub party which has fueled the change from purple state to red in the last 6 - 8 years. Wilson's opinion (he is a Florida resident) is that it is not that DeSantis is a master of the universe super-hero, it is more the changes in the party in his state. I sure which someone at the Bulwark could do a deep dive into this. Because what I have seen of DeSantis is extremely unappealing (plus I disagree with him about everything) and no matter what his political skills might be I do not see him winning on the national level. He reminds me a bit of Steve Forbes who came across as robotic, impersonal and inauthentic.
It's so hard to listen to these people believe all these lies 💔
I am not the least bit interested in Desantis turning the US into one big Florida. Also agree with the commenter below that Desantis has done exactly zero to disabuse me of thinking he too would do the coup.
At 21:52: "Nikki Haley has walked a very fine line." Yes, but she's walked it like a drunk, stumbling back and forth as she goes.
This poll + the details of the *10* (good work Sarah!) focus groups has mostly confirmed what I said about MAGA inevitably throwing Trump under the bus over his electability issues (Flight 93 mentality Trumps Trump). "The people always worship the rising sun more than they do the setting sun." - Pompei Magmus to Sula
Oh, and Sarah, if you're wanting to think about historical analogies, I would echo Whit Ayres' 1912 mention.
Might want to check out this book by Lewis Gould: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0700615644/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1
Part of me is sorry that you've kept yourself so busy, Sarah. On the other hand, you've taken this podcast and made it the best "what are the people thinking?" show out there. Your curiosity has given us not only information about crucial time periods (midterm, Presidential election year), but has also been able help us figure out how people are internalizing things before they have to make choices.
All in all: a good way to try to figure out how the Republican Party electorate thinks.
So happy you guys did a poll with Whit Ayres (great political analyst). This poll this week was an awesome surprise. You guys are doing polls now! Congrats Sarah!
Question for Sarah on the DeSantis vs. Trump issue.
What makes you think DeSantis would not also attempt a coup? We know he's willing to remove elected officials who disagree with him, even when it violates the constitution. We know he redrew the Florida electoral map to suit his own personal tastes. We know he is willing to suppress the vote, even going so far as to arrest people who were given voter IDs by the state of Florida.
Given all that and the lack of Republican opposition to what Trump did. I think the null hypothesis should be that any and all Republican candidates would be willing to attempt a coup until proven otherwise. DeSantis's manipulation of election law and his blatant exercise of executive power make him exceptionally likely to try something. Sure, he probably won't summon an angry mob to storm the capitol, but he's more likely to unite the Republican establishment around the effort, and therefore, more likely to be successful.
Otherwise, great (if a bit maddening) podcast.
Removing elected officials who disagree with you, gerrymandering, voter suppression and even executive power overreach are, I agree, all politically bad - but they’re also sadly within the norm of “bad shit lots of politicians do”. Refusing to concede an election, sending a mob to storm the capitol, dining with Nazis and colluding with Russia are things that are way beyond the scope of “bad politics”.
DeSantis, in general, seems saner and more politically savvy than Trump - even if he lacks the charisma. For example, I don’t think he’d go independent and split the Republican vote if Trump was the nominee like Trump likely might.
But I’m no longer sure if a Trump WH would be more dangerous than a DeSantis one. Both are trying to attract the same MAGA base so both would be beholden to them. The difference is that Trump no longer seems like he’s interested in doing anything to appease that base while DeSantis definitely is. God I can’t believe these are the two major contenders for the nomination! 🤦🏽♀️
Good point. DeSantis has not attempted a coup because he hasn't lost yet. But he's got that authoritarian strongman instinct, and if he could find a way to succeed, he'd do it. Morals or love for our system of government wouldn't play any role whatsoever.
I really enjoy your focus groups, however they scare the crap out of me. I don’t understand how the always Trumpers can’t see through him. Also he might not be able to run should he get indicted and convicted which would be a solution to the GOP. Ron DeSantis is just like an autocrat in his state which also scares me should he get elected. Keep up the great work
You can run for President even if convicted and in jail
Those hardcore Trumpkins might write in his name even if he's dead!
A significant portion of his followers will not believe he died. And there will be a grift targeting them.
One of the scary things about listening to these groups is that most of the always-Trumpers don't sound like raging lunatics. They seem like normal people except that their information sources are totally siloed and their priorities are very limited.
Most of the Always Trumpers never step outside the MAGA silo in their news consumption. Even when they hear bad news about Trump from the mainstream media, they don't believe it because they think the mainstream media are leftwing propaganda outlets.