Top Democrats say they don't see a way for Biden to win, and some are resigning themselves to being the resistance against Trump, despite the threat he poses to our democracy.
Throwing out this idea that is definitely out there. Biden steps back from the presidency and Kamala becomes president who then picks Biden has her Veep. I know it’s hard to take a step backwards but it will allow him to transition better and may help him feel like he still has a role. He can back her up on foreign policy!
Answer me this, if Joe Biden on the ticket is DJT’s best hope to win, then why aren’t we seeing a torrent of media pleading his case to stay in? In fact, we are seeing the exact opposite. Why? Because this isn’t normal politics. This is a Putin / Xi / Oliwannabe attack against the United States of America where their tool is information warfare, this includes spiking polling results. Putin / Xi and the Oliwannabes know that their best chance of installing DJT is Biden stepping aside and/or a fractured Democratic Party.
Read what you want into The Bulwark’s behavior which is fully aligned with what Putin / Xi and the Oliwannabes would like to see.
I am coming around to the view that Biden should not step down after all. Biden has already divided the Democratic Party and donors, alienated the swing voters (like myself), and ruined Kamala Harris' chances of winning if she is the nominee. At this point, it is better for Biden to run and lose. At least, the blame will be squarely on him when he loses and brings down other Democratic candidates. Thanks, Biden. SMH.
Tim, just a side-comment on the brief "AI Ezra" interchange at the beginning. Ezra's nod to us being "reinforcement learning mechanisms" is one that many on the liberal/progressive side share with the "tech bros". The question of a possible soul in an AI entity is met with a shrug. The whole topic is orthogonal to anything of "real" importance, in their opinion, as they accept the possibility of Humanity 2.0. We are coming to a head very soon on what it means to be a conscious human. (Spoken as a retired 50-year Silicon Valley guy.)
I admit that I did not want to hear any of this, but as painful as it was, I’m glad I listened. I am enraged at these “high-ranking” Dems who somehow believe they won’t be some of the first to face a firing squad. They need to wake the f’ up.
Could this explain (as opposed to incompetence, or maybe a combo) the elected democrats in DC seeming uniniterest to call out Republicans on their BS? Dick Durbin, I'm looking @ you. I don't know about anyone else but the complete and utter failure of Democrats to hold hearings regarding a number of shady shit going on in the republican sphere such as, oh I don't know, the fucking Supreme Court & everything that entails, Project 2025 & numerous others is baffling & concerning. But the one that really gets my conspiracy juices flowing is the whole Jared Kushner, MBS & $2 trillion "corruption in plain sight" deal that Democrats have been pretty much silent on. Do you think for ½ a second if the reverse had happened Republicans would have responded in kind. Hell to the fuck no! They even tried to engineer the basic equivalent of this with the whole Biden crime family s*** show that James Comer orchestrated. WTF is going on here????? If anyone with any reasonable answers please comment bc I'm seriously beginning to sink into my dark space. 🫨🤯😮💨😱
How can we get Biden to watch the damn debate? I really think he has no idea how bad his performance was. He needs to experience what millions of us did. I think he would be as horrified as we are.
There are Democrat legislatos who are ambivalent about another Trump Presidency? Shocking. That not ONE thinks Biden can win and they aren't willing to say so to him? Infuriating.
This conversation is a tonic. I have to say that subscribing to the Bulwark may have been the best decision I’ve made this year, perhaps in multiple years. This exchange between Tim and Ezra gives me hope. The emphasis on information is spot on. It’s now clear that we’ve been deceived, perhaps not maliciously, but very likely fatally. We need a course change NOW.
And from the transcript, regarding Biden’s contention that the polls are wrong and that it’s the elites who are against him:
Ezra “I'm told that Joe Biden is running well behind Democrats in house districts from people who do that kind of polling. So we are not finding an electorate that is unwilling to vote for Democrats, even though we know Democrats have been doing pretty well in 2018 and 2020 and 2022. We're finding an electorate that does not want to vote for Joe Biden.
And virtually every piece of data we have is consistent on that. Presidential approval ratings, head-to-head matchups, and the Democratic elites, which contrary to Joe Biden, the President of the United States, telling the co-hosts of Morning Joe and MSNBC that he's getting real tired of all these elites, president company accepted, the actual elites who run things in the Democratic Party have just been refusing to listen to the voters on this. The voters are saying they think Joe Biden is too old, they don't want him to run again.
The Democratic Party has kind of been like, sit down and shut up. And yeah, maybe as you say, all the errors in Democrats' direction this year, but there is no reason, there is no information we have currently that points in that direction. “
From The Bulwark Podcast: Ezra Klein: A Path to Defeat, Jul 10, 2024
“If I were hearing from top Democrats saying, listen, I think our best path to winning is still Joe Biden. I think that unfortunately Harris is a weaker candidate, and I think that an open convention process or a blitz primary would leave us in a worse place. And these are all bad options, but Joe Biden is the least bad option, fine.
I just want to say this because it is, I don't think you can understand what I'm saying. If I don't, that is not what I am hearing from anybody. Like, nobody says that.
Nobody says Joe Biden is the best chance of winning. Nobody even says they think Joe Biden can win. I have not had one top Democrat say that to me, nor has Joe Biden come to any of them with a plan for how to win, right?”
From The Bulwark Podcast: Ezra Klein: A Path to Defeat, Jul 10, 2024
For those who did not listen to this podcast, this is from the transcript:
Ezra: “I think it is clear, like people are like weighing the set of things. Like it would be quite unpleasant for me personally to come out against the president as a elected official in a Democratic Party and weighing what will happen if Donald Trump wins and saying in a revealed preference way, I can live with Donald Trump winning. And I've had people say that to me off the record, to be fair.
I've had top Democrats say to me, basically something like, I don't know why all these Democrats who think Donald Trump is an existential threat to democracy are acting the way they are. But the reason I'm acting the way I am is because I don't think that.
Tim: Who the fuck is this? Out of your sources, Ezra. I'm about to be in leaking text mode over here myself.”
From The Bulwark Podcast: Ezra Klein: A Path to Defeat, Jul 10, 2024
Re: Black support for VP Harris. In '08 black democrats had years of earned loyalty to the Clintons. Even when Obama was really on fire, they didn't swoon for him util he won IA. It was not identity politics is was electability.
Harris is not on fire now, but given a break, would not black Americans flock to her?
Throwing out this idea that is definitely out there. Biden steps back from the presidency and Kamala becomes president who then picks Biden has her Veep. I know it’s hard to take a step backwards but it will allow him to transition better and may help him feel like he still has a role. He can back her up on foreign policy!
Answer me this, if Joe Biden on the ticket is DJT’s best hope to win, then why aren’t we seeing a torrent of media pleading his case to stay in? In fact, we are seeing the exact opposite. Why? Because this isn’t normal politics. This is a Putin / Xi / Oliwannabe attack against the United States of America where their tool is information warfare, this includes spiking polling results. Putin / Xi and the Oliwannabes know that their best chance of installing DJT is Biden stepping aside and/or a fractured Democratic Party.
Read what you want into The Bulwark’s behavior which is fully aligned with what Putin / Xi and the Oliwannabes would like to see.
I am coming around to the view that Biden should not step down after all. Biden has already divided the Democratic Party and donors, alienated the swing voters (like myself), and ruined Kamala Harris' chances of winning if she is the nominee. At this point, it is better for Biden to run and lose. At least, the blame will be squarely on him when he loses and brings down other Democratic candidates. Thanks, Biden. SMH.
Excellent (though worrisome) episode. Tim Miller is doing a great job with the podcast.
The book Klein recommended is actually entitled"Health and Safety" not "Health and Wellness". Come on Ezra, you're losing it!
Tim, just a side-comment on the brief "AI Ezra" interchange at the beginning. Ezra's nod to us being "reinforcement learning mechanisms" is one that many on the liberal/progressive side share with the "tech bros". The question of a possible soul in an AI entity is met with a shrug. The whole topic is orthogonal to anything of "real" importance, in their opinion, as they accept the possibility of Humanity 2.0. We are coming to a head very soon on what it means to be a conscious human. (Spoken as a retired 50-year Silicon Valley guy.)
I admit that I did not want to hear any of this, but as painful as it was, I’m glad I listened. I am enraged at these “high-ranking” Dems who somehow believe they won’t be some of the first to face a firing squad. They need to wake the f’ up.
Could this explain (as opposed to incompetence, or maybe a combo) the elected democrats in DC seeming uniniterest to call out Republicans on their BS? Dick Durbin, I'm looking @ you. I don't know about anyone else but the complete and utter failure of Democrats to hold hearings regarding a number of shady shit going on in the republican sphere such as, oh I don't know, the fucking Supreme Court & everything that entails, Project 2025 & numerous others is baffling & concerning. But the one that really gets my conspiracy juices flowing is the whole Jared Kushner, MBS & $2 trillion "corruption in plain sight" deal that Democrats have been pretty much silent on. Do you think for ½ a second if the reverse had happened Republicans would have responded in kind. Hell to the fuck no! They even tried to engineer the basic equivalent of this with the whole Biden crime family s*** show that James Comer orchestrated. WTF is going on here????? If anyone with any reasonable answers please comment bc I'm seriously beginning to sink into my dark space. 🫨🤯😮💨😱
How can we get Biden to watch the damn debate? I really think he has no idea how bad his performance was. He needs to experience what millions of us did. I think he would be as horrified as we are.
Ezra is wrong about polling! WRONG. There is this iconoclastic anti anti-polling thing every time. It's WRONG.
Whitmer had +4.7% polling, won by 11
Shapiro had +8%, won by 15
Fetterman had -0.5% polling, won by 5 %
Kelly had +1.5% polling, won by 5%
These are not 'margin of error' stats. These are 'Polling is DEAD' stats.
Beshear blew away polling average
Kari Lake was +2.4, lost by 0.7
Evers blew away polling average.
If you were incredibly generous you would say 'inside margin of error' but only if the error now is 4%.
There are Democrat legislatos who are ambivalent about another Trump Presidency? Shocking. That not ONE thinks Biden can win and they aren't willing to say so to him? Infuriating.
This conversation is a tonic. I have to say that subscribing to the Bulwark may have been the best decision I’ve made this year, perhaps in multiple years. This exchange between Tim and Ezra gives me hope. The emphasis on information is spot on. It’s now clear that we’ve been deceived, perhaps not maliciously, but very likely fatally. We need a course change NOW.
And from the transcript, regarding Biden’s contention that the polls are wrong and that it’s the elites who are against him:
Ezra “I'm told that Joe Biden is running well behind Democrats in house districts from people who do that kind of polling. So we are not finding an electorate that is unwilling to vote for Democrats, even though we know Democrats have been doing pretty well in 2018 and 2020 and 2022. We're finding an electorate that does not want to vote for Joe Biden.
And virtually every piece of data we have is consistent on that. Presidential approval ratings, head-to-head matchups, and the Democratic elites, which contrary to Joe Biden, the President of the United States, telling the co-hosts of Morning Joe and MSNBC that he's getting real tired of all these elites, president company accepted, the actual elites who run things in the Democratic Party have just been refusing to listen to the voters on this. The voters are saying they think Joe Biden is too old, they don't want him to run again.
The Democratic Party has kind of been like, sit down and shut up. And yeah, maybe as you say, all the errors in Democrats' direction this year, but there is no reason, there is no information we have currently that points in that direction. “
From The Bulwark Podcast: Ezra Klein: A Path to Defeat, Jul 10, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-bulwark-podcast/id1447684472?i=1000661819578
This material may be protected by copyright.
And this from the transcript:
Ezra:
“If I were hearing from top Democrats saying, listen, I think our best path to winning is still Joe Biden. I think that unfortunately Harris is a weaker candidate, and I think that an open convention process or a blitz primary would leave us in a worse place. And these are all bad options, but Joe Biden is the least bad option, fine.
I just want to say this because it is, I don't think you can understand what I'm saying. If I don't, that is not what I am hearing from anybody. Like, nobody says that.
Nobody says Joe Biden is the best chance of winning. Nobody even says they think Joe Biden can win. I have not had one top Democrat say that to me, nor has Joe Biden come to any of them with a plan for how to win, right?”
From The Bulwark Podcast: Ezra Klein: A Path to Defeat, Jul 10, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-bulwark-podcast/id1447684472?i=1000661819578
This material may be protected by copyright.
For those who did not listen to this podcast, this is from the transcript:
Ezra: “I think it is clear, like people are like weighing the set of things. Like it would be quite unpleasant for me personally to come out against the president as a elected official in a Democratic Party and weighing what will happen if Donald Trump wins and saying in a revealed preference way, I can live with Donald Trump winning. And I've had people say that to me off the record, to be fair.
I've had top Democrats say to me, basically something like, I don't know why all these Democrats who think Donald Trump is an existential threat to democracy are acting the way they are. But the reason I'm acting the way I am is because I don't think that.
Tim: Who the fuck is this? Out of your sources, Ezra. I'm about to be in leaking text mode over here myself.”
From The Bulwark Podcast: Ezra Klein: A Path to Defeat, Jul 10, 2024
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-bulwark-podcast/id1447684472?i=1000661819578
This material may be protected by copyright.
Re: Black support for VP Harris. In '08 black democrats had years of earned loyalty to the Clintons. Even when Obama was really on fire, they didn't swoon for him util he won IA. It was not identity politics is was electability.
Harris is not on fire now, but given a break, would not black Americans flock to her?