The Secret Pod makes an emergency appearance to work through last night's terrible performance by Biden and to urge the Democratic Party to do the responsible thing in this moment. And Jonathan Martin discusses the strategy behind Biden's failed gamble and whether sitting Democrats would actually publicly push the president to leave the ticket. Sarah Longwell, JVL, and Martin join Tim Miller for the weekend pod.
TNL crew is my favorite Bulwark offering, but this pod was really rough. JVL broke me. Tim depressed me. Sarah infuriated me. However, I can understand because she has been telling me for many months that she is building an Anti Trump coalition, not a Pro Biden coalition, so she doesn’t hear from those who are happily voting for Biden-Harris. Perhaps she is working on a two time Biden voter focus group that will air soon to see if they have abandoned Biden? In my Pro Biden/Anti Trump circles, committed voters are mad that Trump continues to lie, say crazy stuff and promises dangerous actions in another term. They are all still voting for Biden despite the debate. It seems odd to offend/risk these voters who have not been wavering on Biden-Harris for years to choose another nominee. Who are the voters who have changed their intended vote for Biden? Wondering if they are more likely to support (1) Biden-Harris or (2) Harris with somebody else. If the concern is that Biden cannot govern because of…[declined mental capacity, slowness, looking old, whatever], then the calls should be for him to resign now. Not staying put and not running for reelection.
We must keep the pressure on the Democratic leadership and President Biden himself to step down. We cannot lose the momentum of this moment or we’re lost a repeat of 2016. Not even- because then Hillary was leading in the polls.
time for you guys to move out of this remove Biden ***t and start defending our democracy. It's Biden or Harris - SCOTUS decisions have made it clear - we need to unite now - no time for political fantasy football. Please kill this remove Biden meme - time to unite.
I take strong objection to Tim's crass description of Lehigh Valley congresswoman Susan Wild at the end of the podcast with J-Mart as a "mid-bench house woman". We love Susan here in the Lehigh Valley, she's been a fierce advocate of the democratic agenda and has skillfully held one of the most dynamic and highly competitive swing districts in Pennsylvania. I hope the Bulwark doesn't think they can continue to run their focus groups in Bethlehem while they spout this sort of slanderous drivel about our representative.
I encourage Tim and the Bulwark team to amend this egregious faux pas by having Susan on the podcast at their earliest opportunity!
This is not a normal election in a normal political environment. Up is down. Left is right. Right is wrong. Reacting in a normal, reasoned way is non-sensical. Processing this as normal is a waste of mental energy.
Assuming a ticket change, re Harris and doubts, I don't understand. Her numbers are comparable to Bidens and she has the clear advantage of being significantly younger than Trump and Biden. Good with women, youth, POC. The case is made well here: https://wapo.st/3xEdgEp
Having discussions about this is important and I appreciate that the folks at Bulwark and others are sharing their thoughts- however unpopular-and the hard truth. The vitriol and aggression in too many people’s comments and in the posts calling for cancelled subscriptions to various outlets is alarming. It reminds me of magas leaving fox after that outlet called Arizona for Biden.
I waited a couple of days before listening to this because of the immediate reactions to the debate on Friday. I did not watch the debate because it’s painful for me at any time and always have ignored them. I am a high information voter and a reliable Democrat so right up front, I’m still “Riding with Biden”. I try to read/listen as much as I can from all kinds of viewpoints and I am willing to change my mind. I appreciate all of you and your analysis and thoughts on the debate and the aftermath. If the Democratic convention blows up, then I’ll guess I’ll have to deal with it then. The folks I talk to in my immediate circle are hanging in with Biden because Trump is a disaster. A lot can happen in the next few months. You know what I would like to see? More emphasis on Trumps crimes, his narcissism and his own issues with competency. I wish our Media outlets would do better with all of those but everyone is looking for revenue and Trump sells. I understand I’m not saying anything important but Bulwark folks, I appreciate you even when I vehemently disagree with you.
Well stated. A silver lining from Thursday's debate is it has made ALL Democrats passionate again about having the best presidential candidate to put forward against Trump. Passion has never waned on the left regarding a Trump defeat but it has been diluted with respect to the Democratic candidate likely poised to take on Trump. The internal fire now is a good thing however it manifests itself, we just need to make sure we keep it burning through November 5th.
It’s the Sunday after, and I’ve had several days to digest Thursday night’s so-called debate and the criticisms after it. Way too much is made of Biden’s performance and not enough is made of what Trump actually said. So, who do we want as our next President… someone who is FOR America, or someone who is AGAINST America?
I have been kind of offline and forgive me if this has been answered elsewhere.
What are the logistical, ballot, and financial ways forward with a new candidate?
1. Getting a campaign online in swing states will take more than just changing signage. Volunteers and staffers will likely divide between candidates fighting for the nomination and may not return to support the new nominee. Staffing and organizing field offices is nontrivial. Especially after a nomination battle up to the convention.
2. A former colleague who was counsel for Senate Judiciary and former Hill Chielf of Staff laid out the ballot obstacles for a new candidate for me. I learned that many states' deadlines are before the nomination, but most states allow the party to certify the nominee prior to the convention in order to meet the deadline. But if the nominee isn't known until the convention, they can't be certified in time. That means that Trump will be running unopposed on ballots and dems would have to rely on write-ins. In this case, they would lose popular vote and electoral college.
3. My understanding is that Biden Campaign cannot simply transfer contributions to a new candidate. It is complex, and would mean returning contributions and hoping the donor send the money to the new nominee.
All of these things need to be buttoned down *tight* before a decision is made. The Heritage Foundation has a battery of lawyers ready to contest every step, and the last thing we need is to wait on SCOTUS decisions one or two months before the election.
I sent an email asking if they could devote an episode to experts on these topics. They have to be answered before any decision is made, and my party is not known for being very well organized.
Love the podcast and agreed with both the analysis and the concerns expressed post-debate. This is no time for magical thinking. It could be ruinous for the Dems to go with anyone but Harris as an alternative if they are to maintain party unity and high voter turnout. Black women are the Dem party’s superpower. Lean into that. If you gave Harris a national defense/security expert or NASA hero running mate that could be especially powerful. Mark Kelly, anyone? AZ governor can choose Kelly replacement until next election so no hit to Dems in the Senate. Maybe AZ’s excellent Atty Gen Kris Mayes. With Kelly’s wife Gabby Giffords as 2nd Lady, she could give gun reform an even bigger platform. Harris-Kelly could be formidable. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/05/03/how-do-states-fill-vacancies-in-the-u-s-senate-it-depends-on-the-state/
In the event of an open convention, the Dems have to go with the best candidate for defeating Trump based on his or her head-to-head polling in the swing states. That's the only criterion. Somebody at the top of the party has to unify the various factions for whom that is not their criterion. That could be Hakim Jeffries, AOC, Nancy Pelosi, or Schumer - even better, all 4 of them.
TNL crew is my favorite Bulwark offering, but this pod was really rough. JVL broke me. Tim depressed me. Sarah infuriated me. However, I can understand because she has been telling me for many months that she is building an Anti Trump coalition, not a Pro Biden coalition, so she doesn’t hear from those who are happily voting for Biden-Harris. Perhaps she is working on a two time Biden voter focus group that will air soon to see if they have abandoned Biden? In my Pro Biden/Anti Trump circles, committed voters are mad that Trump continues to lie, say crazy stuff and promises dangerous actions in another term. They are all still voting for Biden despite the debate. It seems odd to offend/risk these voters who have not been wavering on Biden-Harris for years to choose another nominee. Who are the voters who have changed their intended vote for Biden? Wondering if they are more likely to support (1) Biden-Harris or (2) Harris with somebody else. If the concern is that Biden cannot govern because of…[declined mental capacity, slowness, looking old, whatever], then the calls should be for him to resign now. Not staying put and not running for reelection.
We must keep the pressure on the Democratic leadership and President Biden himself to step down. We cannot lose the momentum of this moment or we’re lost a repeat of 2016. Not even- because then Hillary was leading in the polls.
time for you guys to move out of this remove Biden ***t and start defending our democracy. It's Biden or Harris - SCOTUS decisions have made it clear - we need to unite now - no time for political fantasy football. Please kill this remove Biden meme - time to unite.
I take strong objection to Tim's crass description of Lehigh Valley congresswoman Susan Wild at the end of the podcast with J-Mart as a "mid-bench house woman". We love Susan here in the Lehigh Valley, she's been a fierce advocate of the democratic agenda and has skillfully held one of the most dynamic and highly competitive swing districts in Pennsylvania. I hope the Bulwark doesn't think they can continue to run their focus groups in Bethlehem while they spout this sort of slanderous drivel about our representative.
I encourage Tim and the Bulwark team to amend this egregious faux pas by having Susan on the podcast at their earliest opportunity!
#We Need a Wild Woman in the House
https://wildforcongress.com/meet-susan
Remember Hillary prosecuting the election like it was normal. It was not normal then and it is not normal now.
As lawrence summers discussed, very few people actually saw the debate. The current format is unwatchable, stupid and useless
More radical (not violent) action is called for.
This is not a normal election in a normal political environment. Up is down. Left is right. Right is wrong. Reacting in a normal, reasoned way is non-sensical. Processing this as normal is a waste of mental energy.
Assuming a ticket change, re Harris and doubts, I don't understand. Her numbers are comparable to Bidens and she has the clear advantage of being significantly younger than Trump and Biden. Good with women, youth, POC. The case is made well here: https://wapo.st/3xEdgEp
Agree that the vitriol is unwarranted, I hope members will stop that now.
Please read the transcript - it is not as bad as some are making it, but TRUMP is deranged, lying, and scary af.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/read-biden-trump-debate-rush-transcript/index.html
Having discussions about this is important and I appreciate that the folks at Bulwark and others are sharing their thoughts- however unpopular-and the hard truth. The vitriol and aggression in too many people’s comments and in the posts calling for cancelled subscriptions to various outlets is alarming. It reminds me of magas leaving fox after that outlet called Arizona for Biden.
https://youtu.be/zw8te6EiIlY?si=mAa2bdA2jfbLgFZN
I waited a couple of days before listening to this because of the immediate reactions to the debate on Friday. I did not watch the debate because it’s painful for me at any time and always have ignored them. I am a high information voter and a reliable Democrat so right up front, I’m still “Riding with Biden”. I try to read/listen as much as I can from all kinds of viewpoints and I am willing to change my mind. I appreciate all of you and your analysis and thoughts on the debate and the aftermath. If the Democratic convention blows up, then I’ll guess I’ll have to deal with it then. The folks I talk to in my immediate circle are hanging in with Biden because Trump is a disaster. A lot can happen in the next few months. You know what I would like to see? More emphasis on Trumps crimes, his narcissism and his own issues with competency. I wish our Media outlets would do better with all of those but everyone is looking for revenue and Trump sells. I understand I’m not saying anything important but Bulwark folks, I appreciate you even when I vehemently disagree with you.
Well stated. A silver lining from Thursday's debate is it has made ALL Democrats passionate again about having the best presidential candidate to put forward against Trump. Passion has never waned on the left regarding a Trump defeat but it has been diluted with respect to the Democratic candidate likely poised to take on Trump. The internal fire now is a good thing however it manifests itself, we just need to make sure we keep it burning through November 5th.
It’s the Sunday after, and I’ve had several days to digest Thursday night’s so-called debate and the criticisms after it. Way too much is made of Biden’s performance and not enough is made of what Trump actually said. So, who do we want as our next President… someone who is FOR America, or someone who is AGAINST America?
I have been kind of offline and forgive me if this has been answered elsewhere.
What are the logistical, ballot, and financial ways forward with a new candidate?
1. Getting a campaign online in swing states will take more than just changing signage. Volunteers and staffers will likely divide between candidates fighting for the nomination and may not return to support the new nominee. Staffing and organizing field offices is nontrivial. Especially after a nomination battle up to the convention.
2. A former colleague who was counsel for Senate Judiciary and former Hill Chielf of Staff laid out the ballot obstacles for a new candidate for me. I learned that many states' deadlines are before the nomination, but most states allow the party to certify the nominee prior to the convention in order to meet the deadline. But if the nominee isn't known until the convention, they can't be certified in time. That means that Trump will be running unopposed on ballots and dems would have to rely on write-ins. In this case, they would lose popular vote and electoral college.
3. My understanding is that Biden Campaign cannot simply transfer contributions to a new candidate. It is complex, and would mean returning contributions and hoping the donor send the money to the new nominee.
All of these things need to be buttoned down *tight* before a decision is made. The Heritage Foundation has a battery of lawyers ready to contest every step, and the last thing we need is to wait on SCOTUS decisions one or two months before the election.
Those are all good questions and they must be answered, SOON. Get to work Bulwark podcast and find the people who have answers.
I sent an email asking if they could devote an episode to experts on these topics. They have to be answered before any decision is made, and my party is not known for being very well organized.
Thank you, Denis!!
Second...... Without good information, further discussion on this topic is a waste of time - and worse, it seriously burns people out.
I don't agree, Eva. I am learning things here with the good information others are sharing. And it's not burning me out.
What good information? What solutions are being offered that have a reasonable chance of being successful? I watched the debate. Biden did poorly.
I guess you didn't see my posting this - maybe I did it on Morning Shots or the Triad. "Here’s How an Open Democratic Convention Would Work" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd-yMMSZDOI&list=PLdMrbgYfVl-szepgVpArP0obwYgbKdfvx&index=29&t=44s). Others have pointed to issues with the ballot.
Any one of those could be dealbreakers for replacing Joe Biden. I'm sure there are other considerations I'm not thinking of.
Love the podcast and agreed with both the analysis and the concerns expressed post-debate. This is no time for magical thinking. It could be ruinous for the Dems to go with anyone but Harris as an alternative if they are to maintain party unity and high voter turnout. Black women are the Dem party’s superpower. Lean into that. If you gave Harris a national defense/security expert or NASA hero running mate that could be especially powerful. Mark Kelly, anyone? AZ governor can choose Kelly replacement until next election so no hit to Dems in the Senate. Maybe AZ’s excellent Atty Gen Kris Mayes. With Kelly’s wife Gabby Giffords as 2nd Lady, she could give gun reform an even bigger platform. Harris-Kelly could be formidable. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/05/03/how-do-states-fill-vacancies-in-the-u-s-senate-it-depends-on-the-state/
In the event of an open convention, the Dems have to go with the best candidate for defeating Trump based on his or her head-to-head polling in the swing states. That's the only criterion. Somebody at the top of the party has to unify the various factions for whom that is not their criterion. That could be Hakim Jeffries, AOC, Nancy Pelosi, or Schumer - even better, all 4 of them.