67 Comments

So much for that hope. Trump is found guilty on ALL 34 counts. That is extraordinary.

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The hopium case is that the immense pressure of 11 frustrated New Yorkers will wear down the MAGA cultist. It could happen?!

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“Even if an Oracle got it right, at the end of the day they’re just looking at bird guts.” Yep. Perhaps any judicial reform should reintroduce walking on hot coals or dunking to establish guilt or innocence. After all, God will recognize the innocent, as Simon de Montfort (the Elder) remarked at

Carcassone.

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Take a look at this analysis of the jurors. Chances are Juror 2 will acquit.

https://www.threads.net/@thephotoonist/post/C6AHPAYP2Hv

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That someone whose sources of information were limited to X and Truth Social still voted to convict Trump is a welcomed lesson in civics.

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Juror No 2 is a male non attorney investment banker. He is the only juror who picked Truth Social as a main news source. His other choice was X/Twitter. You would expect an investment banker to rely on the Wall Street Journal and/or the NY Times. There is some reason to expect that he may be a jury nullifier who will vote to acquit irrespective of mountains of evidence of guilt. I am wondering why the prosecutor did not use a preemptory challenge to keep him off the jury.

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There was a MAGA guy on the E Jean Carroll lawsuit, and that didn’t help the Donald.

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His only news sources are Truth Social and X and he is engaging positively with the defense - these are not great signs. Let's hope he takes his oath seriously and makes his decision based on the facts and the law.

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Not necessarily. That is just one data point, not any sort of comprehensive analysis.

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The Trump defense strategy is get a hung jury and jury nullification. Having members of Congress sitting in the peanut gallery during the trial was for the purpose of persuading one juror to vote to acquit no matter how overwhelming the evidence of guilt is. It makes me think it will be nearly impossible to get anything other than a hung jury given the judge and the jury pool for Judge Cannon's classified docs case if and when it ever goes to trial. Until 2 years ago, I lived in St Lucie County. Ft Pierce is the county seat. Jack Smith needs to have a strategy to get Judge Cannon removed and the seat of the trial moved away from Ft Pierce to a place with a different courthouse in South Florida with a better jury selection pool.

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They’re off to the jury room and took the prosecution’s exhibit computer with them, with the judge’s blessing.

I don’t remember the defense having any exhibits, since they’d likely have gotten phone records, etc. through discovery.

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And of course, if it's an 11-1 in favor of conviction hung jury, Trump will rebrand it as an acquittal, as will right wing media, and Americans will believe them.

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Trump, his cronies and favourable soothsayers can believe what they want. Fact is, his shenanigans with Pecker et al, hushing the adult film star and the playboy bunny helped him win the 2016 election. Cohen may be a serial liar, etc but he has paid a big price for assisting Trump, as has Wieselberg (forgive the spelling). He’s still in jail. They helped Trump win the presidency as did Comey and the Russian disinformation campaign. Remember he won by less than 80,000 votes across three states. Like EVERYTHING Trump does, it’s cheating and screwing someone, including voters. What sane person can feel sorry for him?? When will he pay a price?

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During one of the E. Jean Carroll cases, a potential juror was a follower of Tim Pool. One of Carroll’s lawyers asked to strike him for cause, but after questioning him the judge felt he could be fair and impartial.

The judge was correct. The juror voted against Trump.

Reading juries is a fool’s errand.

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Juries generally do their job, and I have a theory as to why they still work.

One of the biggest problems America is facing right now is that there is an avalanche of disinformation enveloping our country, and many Americans seek out that disinformation because they like it.

When someone serves on a jury, they are exposed to actual facts all day for weeks and I think it has a deprogramming effect. Even if they have crazy beliefs on all kinds of issues, on this one issue they have been bombarded with so many facts, that they can't just ignore them.

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You’re absolutely correct. And listening to the judge intone, “If you find A, then you must find B” has an awesome effect, in the literal sense. The judge has told them what to do for weeks and they are in the habit of doing it.

It’s not a free-for-all back there. The foreperson will lead them through the counts one by one, there will be rounds of voting, etc.

And in addition to their sense of duty, they want to go home. A holdout is about as welcome as shingles, and it’s an unusual soul who can hold out against eleven other people. It’s not Twelve Angry Men.

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Isn't there a monetary aspect to this, too? If I were the one holdout juror who led to a hung jury, I could make a fast buck appearing on TV shows, podcasts, and whatever it is that folks turn to nowadays. I don't know the legal aspects of this, however, and maybe that can't happen. But I have my suspicions. (I could also think there might be a prize pony for me from the Trumpers, if you know what I mean.)

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The Jury's Up

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The Trump trial has reached its fever pitch, a climax of raw, unfiltered testimony that's left the jury reeling. For five weeks, they've been bombarded with the sordid details of Trump's hush-money scheme, a twisted tale of deceit and betrayal that's enough to make even the most hardened cynic blush.

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Trump's team, with their silver tongues and slick suits, tried to spin a yarn about their client being the hapless victim of a bitter ex-employee, Michael Cohen. They painted a picture of a president too engulfed in the chaos of his own making to notice the details of the scheme. But anyone with half a brain could see through their flimsy defense.

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The prosecutors, on the other hand, didn't hold back. They spent six relentless hours laying bare the ugly truth of Trump's deceit. They exposed how he falsified business records to cover his tracks, how he repaid Cohen for the $130,000 hush payment to Stormy Daniels, all to smother the scandal before the 2016 election. By the time they rested their case at 8 PM, the jury was left with the weight of history on their shoulders.

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The defense tried to smear Cohen as a venomous liar, out for blood. They called his testimony a twisted fairy tale, suggesting doctored evidence and deceit. But their arguments were as flimsy as a house of cards in a hurricane.

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Prosecutor Joshua Steinglass, in a masterclass of legalese and plain talk, zeroed in on the smoking gun – a document detailing the repayment plan to Cohen. He scoffed at the defense's claim that Trump was too busy with the affairs of state to notice the payments. He drove the point home: Trump, the self-proclaimed frugal micromanager, knew exactly where every dollar went.

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The case wasn't about Cohen's vendetta, Steinglass argued, but Trump's blatant falsification of business records. Cohen was merely a guide, leading the jury through the labyrinth of Trump's deceit.

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The jury now holds the gavel, the final arbiters of justice in this sordid drama. Trump's guilt is as clear as the cold, hard facts – and now it's time for the hammer to fall. The curtain's up on the final act, and the world is watching with bated breath to see if justice will be served and I'm betting the jury will vote guilty by Monday. They're not a bunch of wide-eyed rubes fresh off the turnip truck, these are smart, savvy New Yorkers who can smell a long con from a mile away

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Trump may have thought he could pull the wool over their eyes with his slick lawyers and his smoke and mirrors, but these jurors are cut from a different cloth. They're the kind of people who know that if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

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They've sat through five weeks of this circus, watching as the prosecution peeled back the layers of Trump's deceit like an onion, exposing the rot at the core. They've heard the testimony, seen the evidence, and now they're ready to render their verdict.

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I've got a feeling that come Monday, the hammer of justice is going to come down hard on Donald Trump. These jurors have had enough of his lies, his scheming, and his blatant disregard for the law. They're going to send a message that no one, not even a former president, is above the law.

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So .buckle up, buttercups, because the final act of this drama is about to unfold, and it's going to be a doozy. The jury's got the power now, and they're not afraid to use it. Trump may have thought he was untouchable, but he's about to find out that in the city that never sleeps, justice never rests. The reckoning is coming, and it's going to be a sight to behold.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

@Gloria Horton-Young

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I’d take issue with the defense’s “silver tongues.” All excellent lawyers, each was hogtied by an impossible client and as a result ranged from mediocre (Blanche) to downright awful (Necheles).

You’re stuck with the client you have, but he is an unusually large mouthful of Dead Sea fruit.

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If there is one juror who refuses to convict - and 11 who are ready to convict - those eleven will begin working on that one juror. In order to successfully hang the jury, that one juror will have to admit to the group that he or she does not care about the overwhelming evidence of Trump's guilt, at which point that juror will face having to deal with the pressure from the group to honor his or her promise to reach an impartial decision based on the law and the facts. However long that juror may be able to hold out, we can hope the remaining 11 jurors will not give up and will keep the pressure on until the holdout juror caves.

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Wishing us all hope and prayers that the one juror caves. But if that juror is in the Trump cult, the juror will be more than willing to hang the jury.

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Maybe, but Trump supporters on his civil juries have voted against him.

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Thank you, but I will wait for the jury's verdict.

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Nothing clears the mind like a want of alternatives.

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As we all will. But letting off steam is a well-known mechanism to avoid blowing a gasket😏.

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How many times did you walk away from an uneaten lunch in a restaurant because the jury had a question?

That could be endless with 34 counts.

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Theoretically true, but I doubt it in this specific case.

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Remember that the first ten counts are checks signed by the sons. I would expect extra questions about those counts.

The technical evidence is also thick on the ground, but they do have the magic exhibits laptop and their notes, so I hope your expectation is correct.

I only practiced in state court but for rare exceptions. I don’t think a lot of the pundits are state court practitioners, based upon some of the commentary.

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I wonder how many have actually ever been in a trial as a participant. I practiced in military courts-martials with active duty service members as jurors. You have to know your jurors, at least to some extent. Surprisingly, not all were hammers. I recall a drug possession case where my client was acquitted and the judge later told me that the president of the court (foreman) told him later that the panel "thought" my client did it, but the government just did not prove it. I doubt that one will hear that in this case.

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I agree. At least based on the transcripts, it’s as close to a slam dunk as a state case as one gets. Any ground the defense made up they lost with Costello. I haven’t read the close from either party but rumor has it the the defense was kind of unfocused.

We’ll see.

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TV C

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This is chicken bones and sheep entrails and wishful thinking and Santeria and voodoo.

What makes it particularly ridiculous is the idea that your average citizen would recognize JD Vance on sight.

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Remember that Vance's book "Hillbilly Elegy" was very high on the bestseller list for months. I never read the book but saw the lousy movie based on the book. Vance is a U S Senator and a celebrity and high on the list for Trumps VP nominee . And those who watch Fox News (I don't) have seen him regularly.

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I read the book, he’s my senator, and he’s just another guy wearing guyliner; I doubt I could pick him out of a lineup.

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There was a case in Florida, where a Tallahassee Mayor was charged and the jury was hung. Jurors told the prosecutors that one juror had his/her mind made up to convict from the get go. The others were not able to change his mind. I don't remember how long that went on, but at least a couple of days I think. The prosecution declined to retry him. That is what I am afraid of in the Trump trial(s). Someone determined to hang the jury slips through the screening process. One person, mind made up from the beginning, violating oath to evaluate the evidence impartially.

This man should have had to account for his crooked business dealings decades ago. The city and the state of New York have much to answer for. And we do too. We ignore the dangers of people like this, as long as they are amusing us. " We have met the enemy and he is us."

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Different situation. The one juror was determined to convict against eleven who wanted to acquit. Very different from one juror want to acquit against eleven to want to convict. Depending on the facts of the case you mentioned, it is quite reasonable that the prosecution declined to retry.

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You’re right—he should have been nailed to the wall decades ago, but he would have done the exact same thing—-rained holy hell down and thrown sand in the gears, and tied the county or state up in knots. The prosecutors had to make a decision—throw a ton of resources at one white collar criminal or use those same resources to prosecute some number of other criminals who aren’t Roy Cohn disciples.

Trump has proven that if you are a big enough asshole you can get away with a lot because nobody wants to be the target of an asshole.

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A little addition. Had Trump not been super-empowered with money from birth, he'd be a garden variety sociopath, hawking annuities to retirees in Boca Raton. The law, however, is principally a system to manage the care and feeding of the powerful for those with wealth.

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